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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2 O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumption model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2015

Microbial models with data‐driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change

Abstract Long‐term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon ( SOC ). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data‐constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC , whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP 5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP 5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2‐pool model) and 11% (4‐pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP 5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2‐pool microbial model. The 4‐pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values.

Hararuk, Oleksandra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude ( M w ) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

Robust estimation of moment magnitude (M w ) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of M w for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Therefore, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling Present and Future Permafrost Distribution at Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains results from two GIPL runs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 across the Seward Peninsula. The model was run on 500 m by 500 m resolution for the period 1901-2100. Meteo variables include forcing air temperature and precipitation as well as modeled maxim and average snow height. This dataset also includes ground temperature at 10 different depths for every grid cell, active layer depth and talik thickness. Auxillary variables include ecotype map and projected latitude and longitude. Ground temperature borehole data that is used for model calibration and validation of GIPL2 for Seward Peninsula 500 m resolution model runs for 1901-2100 time period. Dataset also includes calibrated model parameters for future use. The main purpose of this dataset is the reproducibility of research. Data were produced for regional permafrost distribution assessment for present and future, in addition, model parameters can be used for future model runs on adjacent territories. This dataset contains *.pdf, *.txt, *.csv, and *.nc. files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying model structural error: Efficient Bayesian calibration of a regional groundwater flow model using surrogates and a data-driven error model

Groundwater model structural error is ubiquitous, due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of real aquifer systems. During model calibration, the basic hydrogeological parameters may be adjusted to compensate for structural error. This may result in biased predictions when such calibrated models are used to forecast aquifer responses to new forcing. Here, we investigate the impact of model structural error on calibration and prediction of a real-world groundwater flow model, using a Bayesian method with a data-driven error model to explicitly account for model structural error. The error-explicit Bayesian method jointly infers model parameters and structural error and thereby reduces parameter compensation. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models (based on machine learning techniques) as a substitute for the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate that with explicit treatment of model structural error, the Bayesian method yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived using classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. We also found that the error-explicit Bayesian method gives signficantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals. Finally, through variance decomposition, we provide a comprehensive assessment of prediction uncertainty contributed from parameter, model structure, and measurement uncertainty. The results suggest that the error-explicit Bayesian approach provides a solution to real-world modeling applications for which data support the presence of model structural error, yet model deficiency cannot be specifically identified or corrected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

A comparative survey of current and proposed tropospheric refraction-delay models for DSN radio metric data calibration

The standard tropospheric calibration model implemented in the operational Orbit Determination Program is the seasonal model developed by C. C. Chao in the early 1970's. The seasonal model has seen only slight modification since its release, particularly in the format and content of the zenith delay calibrations. Chao's most recent standard mapping tables, which are used to project the zenith delay calibrations along the station-to-spacecraft line of sight, have not been modified since they were first published in late 1972. This report focuses principally on proposed upgrades to the zenith delay mapping process, although modeling improvements to the zenith delay calibration process are also discussed. A number of candidate approximation models for the tropospheric mapping are evaluated, including the semi-analytic mapping function of Lanyi, and the semi-empirical mapping functions of Davis, et. al.('CfA-2.2'), of Ifadis (global solution model), of Herring ('MTT'), and of Niell ('NMF'). All of the candidate mapping functions are superior to the Chao standard mapping tables and approximation formulas when evaluated against the current Deep Space Network Mark 3 intercontinental very long baselines interferometry database.

Estefan, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Model Robust Calibration: Method and Application to Electronically-Scanned Pressure Transducers

This article presents the application of a recently developed statistical regression method to the controlled instrument calibration problem. The statistical method of Model Robust Regression (MRR), developed by Mays, Birch, and Starnes, is shown to improve instrument calibration by reducing the reliance of the calibration on a predetermined parametric (e.g. polynomial, exponential, logarithmic) model. This is accomplished by allowing fits from the predetermined parametric model to be augmented by a certain portion of a fit to the residuals from the initial regression using a nonparametric (locally parametric) regression technique. The method is demonstrated for the absolute scale calibration of silicon-based pressure transducers.

Walker, Eric L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Performance Metrics and their Application to the Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

High-quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMUs, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. In this approach, the quality of a model is analyzed by visually comparing measured generator response with the model-based simulated response for large system disturbances. This paper proposes a new set of performance metrics to assess the model validation results to facilitate automation of the model validation process. In the proposed methodology, first, the slow governor response and comparatively faster oscillatory response are separated, and then a separate set of performance metrics is calculated for each of these two components. These proposed metrics quantify the mismatch between the actual and model-based response in a comprehensive manner without missing any information enabling automation of the process. Furthermore, in this paper, we are also proposing that the sensitivity analysis for model calibration be performed with respect to the proposed metrics for the systematic identification of key parameters. In this work, results obtained using both simulated and real-world case-studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics for model validation and their application to the sensitivity analysis for model calibration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

In Quest of Calibration Density and Consistency in Hydrologic Modeling: Distributed Parameter Calibration against Streamflow Characteristics

Conventional basin-by-basin approaches to calibrate hydrologic models are limited to gauged basins and typically result in spatially discontinuous parameter fields. Moreover, the consequent low calibration density in space falls seriously behind the need from present-day applications like high resolution river hydrodynamic modeling. In this study we calibrated three key parameters of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at every 1/8° grid-cell using machine learning-based maps of four streamflow characteristics for the conterminous United States (CONUS), with a total of 52,663 grid-cells. This new calibration approach, as an alternative to parameter regionalization, applied to ungauged regions too. A key difference made here is that we tried to regionalize physical variables (streamflow characteristics) instead of model parameters whose behavior may often be less well understood. The resulting parameter fields no longer presented any spatial discontinuities and the patterns corresponded well with climate characteristics, such as aridity and runoff ratio. The calibrated parameters were evaluated against observed streamflow from 704/648 (calibration/validation period) small-to-medium-sized catchments used to derive the streamflow characteristics, 3941/3809 (calibration/validation period) small-to-medium-sized catchments not used to derive the streamflow characteristics as well as five large basins. Comparisons indicated marked improvements in bias and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Model performance was still poor in arid and semiarid regions, which is mostly due to both model structural and forcing deficiencies. Although the performance gain was limited by the relative small number of parameters to calibrate, the study and results here served as a proof-of-concept for a new promising approach for fine-scale hydrologic model calibrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a simplified calibrated building simulation model of a supermarket for proposed ECMs and control strategies impact evaluation

Calibrated building energy simulation is an important pathway to more energy-efficient buildings, but the information requirements of some approaches to this problem are significant. This is particularly true for supermarkets and other so-called “big-box” retail stores. Another characteristic of supermarkets is the significant interaction between Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and refrigeration systems in these buildings. These buildings could contain a wide variety of systems and a degree of load diversity that makes calibrated modeling a challenge. This paper describes a simplified approach that uses OpenStudio and EnergyPlus to combine known building parameters with “typical” parameters, resulting in a simplified building that is amenable to calibration. This approach was applied to a big-box store located in Nashville, Tennessee, and a calibrated model was obtained that was used to study potential energy conservation measures. Further, the paper also explores the capabilities of whole-building energy modeling tools, such as EnergyPlus, for modeling the HVAC controls and sequences and their impact evaluation. Although some measures are precluded by the model simplicity, several measures were found to improve the efficiency of the model and demonstrate that the simplified modeling approach is effective. Practical Application: This paper introduces a hybrid approach of building energy model calibration using limited information available from the actual building in combination with characteristics of a “typical” building of the same type. This hybrid approach would also be applicable for other building types than discussed in this paper to calibrate the building energy model using limited information from the actual building.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Discrete Regularization for Calibration of Geologic Facies Against Dynamic Flow Data

Abstract Subsurface flow model calibration involves many more unknowns than measurements, leading to ill‐posed problems with nonunique solutions. To alleviate nonuniqueness, the problem is regularized by constraining the solution space using prior knowledge. In certain sedimentary environments, such as fluvial systems, the contrast in hydraulic properties of different facies types tends to dominate the flow and transport behavior, making the effect of within facies heterogeneity less significant. Hence, flow model calibration in those formations reduces to delineating the spatial structure and connectivity of different lithofacies types and their boundaries. A major difficulty in calibrating such models is honoring the discrete, or piecewise constant, nature of facies distribution. The problem becomes more challenging when complex spatial connectivity patterns with higher‐order statistics are involved. This paper introduces a novel formulation for calibration of complex geologic facies by imposing appropriate constraints to recover plausible solutions that honor the spatial connectivity and discreteness of facies models. To incorporate prior connectivity patterns, plausible geologic features are learned from available training models. This is achieved by learning spatial patterns from training data, e.g., ‐SVD sparse learning or the traditional Principal Component Analysis. Discrete regularization is introduced as a penalty functions to impose solution discreteness while minimizing the mismatch between observed and predicted data. An efficient gradient‐based alternating directions algorithm is combined with variable splitting to minimize the resulting regularized nonlinear least squares objective function. Numerical results show that imposing learned facies connectivity and discreteness as regularization functions leads to geologically consistent solutions that improve facies calibration quality.

Khaninezhad, Mohammad‐Reza↗
DOE OSTI2013

Selecting Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation for Calibrating Stochastic Models

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the “go-to” option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗