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NASA NTRS1995

Ozone trends deduced from combined Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 data

The long-term time series of global ozone from the Nimbus-7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet instrument (SBUV) (Nov. 1978-June 1990) are extended through June 1994 by using measurements from the NOAA-11 SBUV/2. The data sets are merged based upon comparisons during the 18-month overlap period in which both instruments were operational. During this period, the average offset between the two time series is less than 2% in total ozone, and less than 6% in Umkehr layers 1-10. A linear-regression trend model is applied to the extended time series to calculate updated trends as a function of latitude and altitude. Trends through June 1994 are 1.5-2% per decade less negative than through June 1990 in the tropical middle stratosphere (35-40 km) and in the upper stratosphere (45-50 km) at mid-latitudes. In the lower stratosphere, the trends are nearly 1.5% per decade more negative in the southern hemisphere tropical regions to 25 deg S, but remain relatively unchanged elsewhere. The seasonal structure of the total ozone trends is similar to past trend study results, but the magnitude of the seasonal trend can vary by 2% per decade depending on the length of the time series. Both Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) (through April 1993) and SBUV total ozone time series show small negative trends in the equatorial region, though they are not statistically at the 2-sigma level.

Hollandsworth, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Isostatic compensation of equatorial highlands on Venus

Spherical harmonic models for Venus' global topography and gravity incorporating Magellan data are used to test isostatic compensation models in five 30 deg x 30 deg regions representative of the main classes of equatorial highlands. The power spectral density for the harmonic models obeys a power-law scaling with spectral slope Beta approximately 2 (Brown noise) for the topography and Beta approximately 3 (Kaula's law) for the geoid, similar to what is observed for Earth. The Venus topography spectrum has lower amplitudes than Earth's which reflects the dominant lowland topography on Venus. Observed degree geoid to topography ratios (GTRs) on Venus are significantly smaller than degree GTRs for uncompensated topography, indicative of substantial compensation. Assuming a global Airy compensation, most of the topography is compensated at depths greater than 100 km, suggesting a thick lithosphere on Venus. For each region considered we obtain a regional degree of compensation C from a linear regression of Bouguer anomaly versus Bouguer gravity data. Geoid anomaly (N) versus topography variation (h) data for each sample were compared, in the least-squares sense, to theoretical correlations for Pratt, Airy, and thermal thinning isostasy models yielding regional GTR, zero-elevation crustal thickness (H), and zero elevation thermal lithosphere thickness (y(sub L(sub 0)), respectively. We find the regional compensation to be substantial (C approximately 52-80%), and the h, N data correlations in the chosen areas can be explained by isostasy models applicable on the Earth and involving variations in crustal thickness (Airy) and/or lithospheric (thermal thinning) thickness. However, a thick crust and lithosphere (y(sub L(sub 0)) approximately 300 km) must be assumed for Venus.

Kucinskas, Algis B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Supporting technology for the development of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)

To support the development of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) in the space program, a metabolic simulator has been selected for use in a closed chamber to test functions of the CELSS. This metabolic simulator is a catalytic reactor which oxidizes the methyl acetate to produce carbon dioxide and water vapor. In this project, kinetic studies of catalytic oxidation of methyl acetate were conducted using monolithic and pellet catalysts with 0.5% (by weight) platinum (Pt) on aluminum oxide (Al2O3). The reaction was studied at a pressure of one atmosphere and at temperatures varying from 160 C to 420 C. By-products were identified at the exit of the preheater and reactor. For the kinetic study with the monolithic catalyst, a linear regression method was used to correlate the kinetic data with zero-order, first-order and Langmuir-Hinshelwood models. Results indicate that the first-order model represents the data adequately at low concentrations of methyl acetate. For higher concentrations of methyl acetate, the Langmuir-Hinshelwood model best represents the kinetic data. Both rate constant and adsorption equilibrium constants were estimated from the regression. A Taguchi orthogonal array (L(sub 9)) was used to investigate the effects of temperature, flow rate, and concentration on the catalytic oxidation of methyl acetate. For the monolithic catalyst, temperature exerts the most significant effect, followed by concentration of methyl acetate. For the pellet catalyst, reaction temperature is the most significant factor, followed by gas flow rate and methyl acetate concentration. Concentrations of either carbon dioxide or oxygen were seen to have insignificant effect on the methyl acetate conversion process. Experimental results indicate that the preheater with glass beads can accomplish thermal cracking and catalytic reaction of methyl acetate to produce acetic acid, methanol, methyl formate, and 1-propanol. The concentration of all by-products was measured in ppmv (parts per million by volume). At higher temperatures, greater amounts of these products are produced, as expected. In all cases, methanol was the predominant concentration detected, followed by methyl formate. At temperatures lower than 320 C for the P-type monolithic catalyst, methanol, acetic acid, and acetone were detected, whereas, for the E-type monolithic catalyst, only methanol was detected at 160 C. Both P and E types of the monolithic catalyst were specified with the same substrates (ceramic), washcoat (Al2O3), and promoter (Pt). However, the manufacturing and treatment procedures were quite different. It was therefore concluded that the performance of the E-type monolithic catalyst is superior to that of the P-type for oxidation of methyl acetate. At higher reaction temperatures, e.g., above 420 C, all reactants and byproducts were completely oxidized using these two types of monolithic catalyst to produce carbon dioxide and water vapor. A complex heterogenous catalytic reaction mechanism was proposed to explain the formation of the byproducts (methanol, acetic acid, and methyl formate) as the methyl acetate traveled through the preheater packed with glass beads. The by-product, 1-propanol, may be formed only through a homogeneous reaction, since it is difficult to develop a reasonable sequence of heterogeneous reaction steps to explain its formation. The homogeneous thermal decomposition of methyl acetate to form free radicals was proposed to explain the formation of 1-propanol, and also methanol, in the preheater. A dual-site catalytic reaction mechanism was proposed for the oxidation of methyl acetate over Pt/Al2O3 monolithic catalyst. The dual-site mechanism describes the chemisorption of oxygen molecules as well as a physical adsorption of methyl acetate on the active sites. On the active sites, methyl acetate is oxidized rapidly to form carbon dioxide and water vapor. A rate equation derived from this mechanism gives the Langmuir-Hinshelwood rate formula which has been observed from the experimental data obtained in this project for high methyl acetate concentration (greater than 1000 ppmv) over a monolithic catalyst. If the oxygen concentration is very high and methyl acetate concentration is very low, the reaction rate equation is then reduced to a first-order with respect to methyl acetate concentration. The first-order model has also been observed from the experimental data obtained in this project for low methyl acetate concentration (less than 1000 ppmv).

Li, Ku-Yen↗

NASA NTRS1995

The relation between the period of oscillations and brightness in chromospheric bright points

The chromospheric bright points are the sites where intense heating occurs in three minute period waves. The bright points are grouped into three classes depending on the amount of intensity enhancement and the pattern of their dynamical evolution. A 35-minute time series of photographic spectra in the Ca(II) H line on a quiet region ofthe center of the solar disk was used to show that the period of intensity oscillations seen at sites of the bright points is independent of their intensity enhancements. The series was also used to show that the period may not depend on the strength of the magnetic fields with which they are associated. A linear regression equation was fitted to a curve representing the variation of the period of intensity oscillations with the peak value of I(sub H2V). The correlation coefficient was found to be 0.19.

Kariyappa, R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

SeaWiFS Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS CZCS-Type Pigment Algorithm - Volume 29

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission will provide operational ocean color that will be superior to the previous Coastal Zone Color Sensor (CZCS) proof-of-concept mission. An algorithm is needed that exploits the full functionality of SeaWiFS whilst remaining compatible in concept with algorithms used for the CZCS. This document describes the theoretical rationale of radiance band-ratio methods for determining chlorophyll-a and other important biogeochemical parameters, and their implementation for the SeaWIFS mission. Pigment interrelationships are examined to explain the success of the CZCS algorithms. In the context where chlorophyll-a absorbs only weakly at 520 nm, the success of the 520 nm to 550 nm CZCS band ratio needs to be explained. This is explained by showing that in pigment data from a range of oceanic provinces chlorophyll-a (absorbing at less than 490 nm), carotenoids (absorbing at greater than 460 nm), and total pigment are highly correlated. Correlations within pigment groups particularly photoprotectant and photosynthetic carotenoids are less robust. The sources of variability in optical data are examined using the NIMBUS Experiment Team (NET) bio-optical data set and bio-optical model. In both the model and NET data, the majority of the variance in the optical data is attributed to variability in pigment (chlorophyll-a), and total particulates, with less than 5% of the variability resulting from pigment assemblage. The relationships between band ratios and chlorophyll is examined analytically, and a new formulation based on a dual hyperbolic model is suggested which gives a better calibration curve than the conventional log-log linear regression fit. The new calibration curve shows the 490:555 ratio is the best single-band ratio and is the recommended CZCS-type pigment algorithm. Using both the model and NET data, a number of multiband algorithms are developed; the best of which is an algorithm based on the 443:555 and 490:555 ratios. From model data, the form of potential algorithms for other products, such as total particulates and dissolved organic matter (DOM), are suggested.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Parameter identification and modeling of longitudinal aerodynamics

Using a comprehensive flight test database and a parameter identification software program produced at NASA Ames Research Center, a math model of the longitudinal aerodynamics of the Harrier aircraft was formulated. The identification program employed the equation error method using multiple linear regression to estimate the nonlinear parameters. The formulated math model structure adhered closely to aerodynamic and stability/control theory, particularly with regard to compressibility and dynamic manoeuvring. Validation was accomplished by using a three degree-of-freedom nonlinear flight simulator with pilot inputs from flight test data. The simulation models agreed quite well with the measured states. It is important to note that the flight test data used for the validation of the model was not used in the model identification.

Aksteter, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Determination of Uncertainties for the New SSME Model

This report discusses the uncertainty analysis performed in support of a new test analysis and performance prediction model for the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The new model utilizes uncertainty estimates for experimental data and for the analytical model to obtain the most plausible operating condition for the engine system. This report discusses the development of the data sets and uncertainty estimates to be used in the development of the new model. It also presents the application of uncertainty analysis to analytical models and the uncertainty analysis for the conservation of mass and energy balance relations is presented. A new methodology for the assessment of the uncertainty associated with linear regressions is presented.

Coleman, Hugh W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Technique for Intermediate and Long-Range Estimation of 13-Month Smoothed Solar Flux and Geomagnetic Index

This report documents the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) 13-month smoothed solar flux (F(sub 10.7)) and geomagnetic index (A(sub p)) intermediate (months) and long-range (years) statistical estimation technique, referred to as the MSFC Lagrangian Linear Regression Technique (MLLRT). Estimates of future solar activity are needed as updated input to upper atmosphere density models used for satellite and spacecraft orbital lifetime predictions. An assessment of the MLLRT computer program's products is provided for 5-year periods from the date estimates were made. This was accomplished for a number of past solar cycles.

Niehuss, K. O.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An Occupational Performance Test Validation Program for Fire Fighters at the Kennedy Space Center

We evaluated performance of a modified Combat Task Test (CTT) and of standard fitness tests in 20 male subjects to assess the prediction of occupational performance standards for Kennedy Space Center fire fighters. The CTT consisted of stair-climbing, a chopping simulation, and a victim rescue simulation. Average CTT performance time was 3.61 +/- 0.25 min (SEM) and all CTT tasks required 93% to 97% maximal heart rate. By using scores from the standard fitness tests, a multiple linear regression model was fitted to each parameter: the stairclimb (r(exp 2) = .905, P less than .05), the chopping performance time (r(exp 2) = .582, P less than .05), the victim rescue time (r(exp 2) = .218, P = not significant), and the total performance time (r(exp 2) = .769, P less than .05). Treadmill time was the predominant variable, being the major predictor in two of four models. These results indicated that standardized fitness tests can predict performance on some CTT tasks and that test predictors were amenable to exercise training.

Schonfeld, Brian R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Multiwavelength and Statistical Research in Space Astrophysics

The accomplishments in the following three research areas are summarized: multiwavelength study of active galactic nuclei; magnetic activity of young stellar objects; and statistical methodology for astronomical data analysis. The research is largely based on observations of the ROSAT and ASCA X-ray observatories, complemented by ground-based optical and radio studies. Major findings include: discovery of inverse Compton X-ray emission from radio galaxy lobes; creation of the largest and least biased available sample of BL Lac objects; characterization of X-ray and nonthermal radio emission from T Tauri stars; obtaining an improved census of young stars in a star forming region and modeling the star formation history and kinematics; discovery of X-ray emission from protostars; development of linear regression methods and codes for interpreting astronomical data; and organization of the first cross-disciplinary conferences for astronomers and statisticians.

Feigelson, Eric D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Aerobic Fitness Does Not Contribute to Prediction of Orthostatic Intolerance

Several investigations have suggested that orthostatic tolerance may be inversely related to aerobic fitness (VO (sub 2max)). To test this hypothesis, 18 males (age 29 to 51 yr) underwent both treadmill VO(sub 2max) determination and graded lower body negative pressures (LBNP) exposure to tolerance. VO(2max) was measured during the last minute of a Bruce treadmill protocol. LBNP was terminated based on pre-syncopal symptoms and LBNP tolerance (peak LBNP) was expressed as the cumulative product of LBNP and time (torr-min). Changes in heart rate, stroke volume cardiac output, blood pressure and impedance rheographic indices of mid-thigh-leg initial accumulation were measured at rest and during the final minute of LBNP. For all 18 subjects, mean (plus or minus SE) fluid accumulation index and leg venous compliance index at peak LBNP were 139 plus or minus 3.9 plus or minus 0.4 ml-torr-min(exp -2) x 10(exp 3), respectively. Pearson product-moment correlations and step-wise linear regression were used to investigate relationships with peak LBNP. Variables associated with endurance training, such as VO(sub 2max) and percent body fat were not found to correlate significantly (P is less than 0.05) with peak LBNP and did not add sufficiently to the prediction of peak LBNP to be included in the step-wise regression model. The step-wise regression model included only fluid accumulation index leg venous compliance index, and blood volume and resulted in a squared multiple correlation coefficient of 0.978. These data do not support the hypothesis that orthostatic tolerance as measured by LBNP is lower in individuals with high aerobic fitness.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Remote Sensing as a Landscape Epidemiologic Tool to Identify Villages at High Risk for Malaria Transmission

A landscape approach using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies was developed to discriminate between villages at high and low risk for malaria transmission, as defined by adult Anopheles albimanus abundance. Satellite data for an area in southern Chiapas, Mexico were digitally processed to generate a map of landscape elements. The GIS processes were used to determine the proportion of mapped landscape elements surrounding 40 villages where An. albimanus data had been collected. The relationships between vector abundance and landscape element proportions were investigated using stepwise discriminant analysis and stepwise linear regression. Both analyses indicated that the most important landscape elements in terms of explaining vector abundance were transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture. Discriminant functions generated for these two elements were able to correctly distinguish between villages with high ind low vector abundance, with an overall accuracy of 90%. Regression results found both transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture proportions to be predictive of vector abundance during the mid-to-late wet season. This approach, which integrates remotely sensed data and GIS capabilities to identify villages with high vector-human contact risk, provides a promising tool for malaria surveillance programs that depend on labor-intensive field techniques. This is particularly relevant in areas where the lack of accurate surveillance capabilities may result in no malaria control action when, in fact, directed action is necessary. In general, this landscape approach could be applied to other vector-borne diseases in areas where: 1. the landscape elements critical to vector survival are known and 2. these elements can be detected at remote sensing scales.

Beck, Louisa R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Evidence for Increased Beta-Adrenoreceptor Responsiveness Induced by 14 Days of Simulated Microgravity in Humans

We studied hemodynamic responses to alpha and beta receptor agonists in 8 healthy men ( 38+- 2 yrs) before and after 14 days of 6 degree head-down tilt (HDT) to test the hypothesis that increased adrenergic responsiveness is induced by prolonged exposure to microgravity. Immediately following a 30-min baseline period, a steady-state infusion of isoproterenol (ISO) was used to assess beta 1- and beta 2-adrenergic responsiveness. ISO was infused at three graded constant rates of 0.005, 0.01 and 0.02 ug/kg/min. After heart rate and blood pressure had been allowed to return to baseline levels following ISO infusion graded infusion of phenylephrine (PE) was used to assess responsiveness of alpha I-vascular receptors. PE was infused at three graded constant rates of 0.25, 0.50 and 1.00 ug/kg/min. Each infusion interval for both drugs was 9 min. During the infusions, constant monitoring of beat-to-beat blood pressure and heart rate was performed and leg blood flow was measured with occlusion plethysmography at each infusion level. The slopes calculated from linear regressions between ISO and PE doses and changes in heart rate, blood pressure, and leg vascular resistance for each subject were used to represent alpha- and beta- adrenoreceptor responsiveness. Fourteen days HDT increased the slopes of heart rate (1056 +- 107 to 1553 +- 83 beats/ug/kg/min; P= 0.014) and vasodilation (-469ft +- 111 to -l446 +- 309 PRU/ug/kg/min; P =0.0224) to ISO infusion. There was no alteration in blood pressure or vascular resistance responses to PE infusion after HDT. Our results provide evidence that microgravity causes selective increases in beta 1- and beta 2-adrenergic responsiveness without affecting alpha 1-vascular responses.

CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM↗

NASA NTRS1996

Dependence of the Normalized Radar Cross Section of Water Waves on Bragg Wavelength-Wind Speed Sensitivity

Measurements of the normalized radar cross section (sigma(sup o)) made by the YSCAT ultrawideband scatterometer during an extended deployment on the Canada Centre for Inland Waters(CCIW) Research Tower located at Lake Ontario are analyzed and compared with anemometer wind measurements to study the sensitivity of (sigma(sup o)) to the wind speed as a function of the Bragg wavelength. This paper concentrates on upwind and downwind azimuth angles in the wind speed range of 4.5-12 m/s. While YSCAT collected measurements of sigma(sup o) at a variety of frequencies and incidence angles, this paper focuses on frequencies of 2.0, 3.05, 5.30, 10.02, and 14.0 GHz and incidence angles within the Bragg regime, 30-50 deg. Adopting a power law model to describe the relationship between sigma(sup o) and wind speed, both wind speed exponents and upwind/downwind (u/d) ratios of sigma(sup o) are found using least squares linear regression. The analysis of the wind speed exponents and u/d ratios show that shorter Bragg wavelengths (Lambda less than 4 cm) are the most sensitive to wind speed and direction. Additionally, vertical polarization (V-pol) sigma(sup o) is shown to be more sensitive to wind speed than horizontal polarization (H-pol) sigma(sup o), while the H-pol u/d ratio is larger than the V-pol u/d ratio.

Long, David G.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Organometallic Polymeric Conductors

For aerospace applications, the use of polymers can result in tremendous weight savings over metals. Suitable polymeric materials for some applications like EMI shielding, spacecraft grounding, and charge dissipation must combine high electrical conductivity with long-term environmental stability, good processability, and good mechanical properties. Recently, other investigators have reported hybrid films made from an electrically conductive polymer combined with insulating polymers. In all of these instances, the films were prepared by infiltrating an insulating polymer with a precursor for a conductive polymer (either polypyrrole or polythiophene), and oxidatively polymerizing the precursor in situ. The resulting composite films have good electrical conductivity, while overcoming the brittleness inherent in most conductive polymers. Many aerospace applications require a combination of properties. Thus, hybrid films made from polyimides or other engineering resins are of primary interest, but only if conductivities on the same order as those obtained with a polystyrene base could be obtained. Hence, a series of experiments was performed to optimize the conductivity of polyimide-based composite films. The polyimide base chosen for this study was Kapton. 3-MethylThiophene (3MT) was used for the conductive phase. Three processing variables were identified for producing these composite films, namely time, temperature, and oxidant concentration for the in situ oxidation. Statistically designed experiments were used to examine the effects of these variables and synergistic/interactive effects among variables on the electrical conductivity and mechanical strength of the films. Multiple linear regression analysis of the tensile data revealed that temperature and time have the greatest effect on maximum stress. The response surface of maximum stress vs. temperature and time (for oxidant concentration at 1.2 M) is shown. Conductivity of the composite films was measured for over 150 days in air at ambient temperature. The conductivity of the films dropped only half an order of magnitude in that time. Films aged under vacuum at ambient temperature diminished slightly in conductivity in the first day, but did not change thereafter. An experimental design approach will be applied to maximize the efficiency of the laboratory effort. The material properties (initial and long term) will also be monitored and assessed. The experimental results will add to the existing database for electrically conductive polymer materials. Attachments: 1) Synthesis Crystal Structure, and Polymerization of 1,2:5,6:9,10-Tribenzo-3,7,11,13-tetradehydro(14) annulene. 2) Reinvestigation of the Photocyclization of 1,4-Phenylene Bis(phenylmaleic anhydride): Preparation and Structure of (5)Helicene 5,6:9,10-Dianhydride. 3) Preparation and Structure Charecterization of a Platinum Catecholate Complex Containing Two 3-Ethynyltheophone Groups. and 4) Rigid-Rod Polymers Based on Noncoplanar 4,4'-Biphenyldiamines: A Review of Polymer Properties vs Configuration of Diamines.

Youngs, Wiley J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Infrared space observatory photometry of circumstellar dust in Vega-type systems

The ISOPHOT (Infrared Space Observatory Photometry) instrument onboard the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) was used to obtain 3.6-90 micron photometry of Vega-type systems. Photometric data were calibrated with the ISOPHOT fine calibration source 1 (FCS1). Linear regression was used to derive transformations to make comparisons to ground-based and IRAS photometry systems possible. These transformations were applied to the photometry of 14 main-sequence stars. Details of these results are reported on.

Fajardo-Acosta, S. B.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Assessment of Uncertainty in the Determination of Activation Energy for Polymeric Materials

An assessment of the experimental uncertainty in obtaining the kinetic activation energy from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data is presented. A neat phenolic resin, Borden SC1O08, was heated at three heating rates to obtain weight loss vs temperature data. Activation energy was calculated by two methods: the traditional Flynn and Wall method based on the slope of log(q) versus 1/T, and a modification of this method where the ordinate and abscissa are reversed in the linear regression. The modified method produced a more accurate curve fit of the data, was more sensitive to data nonlinearity, and gave a value of activation energy 75 percent greater than the original method. An uncertainty analysis using the modified method yielded a 60 percent uncertainty in the average activation energy. Based on this result, the activation energy for a carbon-phenolic material was doubled and used to calculate the ablation rate In a typical solid rocket environment. Doubling the activation energy increased surface recession by 3 percent. Current TGA data reduction techniques that use the traditional Flynn and Wall approach to calculate activation energy should be changed to the modified method.

Darby, Stephania P.↗