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NASA NTRS1999

Knowledge Discovery Process for Characterization of Materials Failure Mechanism

It is the intent of this project to provide a platform to visualize the various data collected from stress-strain testing of composite ceramic matrix materials. The data collected from the stress-strain tests are acoustic emissions (AE). As a material is subjected to a stress-strain test, various failure mechanisms occur in the material. The recorded sounds emitted during the test may correspond to various failure mechanisms. This project, thus, will give a possible way to visualize the data and data derived from the recorded AE. The stress-strain testing was performed on several composite matrix material combinations. Each of these tests produced anywhere from 1000 to 10,000+ AE events. For each AE event recorded, several characteristics in both the time and frequency domains are created. This project has two goals. First, this project will provide a summation page for a selected waveform. This page will include all of the characteristics determined from the AE event waveform along with graphs of the AE event waveform and its corresponding Power Spectrum. The other function of this project is to retrieve and display selected AE event waveforms for comparison.

Cios, Krzysztof J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detecting anomalous sequences in electronic health records using higher-order tensor networks

Detecting anomalous sequences is an integral part of building and protecting modern large-scale health information technology (HIT) systems. These HIT systems generate a large volume of records of patients’ state and significant events, which provide a valuable resource to help improve clinical decisions, patient care processes, and other issues. However, detecting anomalous sequences in electronic health records (EHR) remains a challenge in healthcare applications for several reasons, including imbalances in the data, complexity of relationships between events in the sequence, and the curse of dimensionality. Conventional anomaly detection methods use the finite sequence of events to discriminate sequences. They fail to incorporate salient event details under variable higher-order dependencies (e.g., duration between events) that can provide better discrimination of sequences in their models. To address this problem, we propose event sequence and subsequence anomaly detection algorithms that (1) use network-based representations of interactions in the data, (2) account for variable higher-order dependencies in the data, and (3) incorporate events duration for adequate discrimination of the data. The proposed approach identifies anomalies by monitoring the change in the graph after the test sequence is removed from the network. The change is quantified using graph distance metrics so that dramatic changes in the network can be attributed to the removed sequence. Furthermore, the proposed subsequence algorithm recommends plausible paths and salient information for the detected anomalous subsequences. Our results show that the proposed event sequence anomaly detection algorithm outperforms the baseline methods for both synthetic data and real-world EHR data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hypergraph Analytics of Domain Name System Relationships

We report on the use of novel mathematical methods in hypergraph analytice over a large quantity of DNS data. Hypergraphs generalize graphs, as used in network science, to better model complex multiway relations in cyber data. Specifically, casting DNS data from Georgia Tech's ActiveDNS repository as hypergraphs allows us to fully represent the interactions between {\em collections} of domains and IP addresses. To facilitate large-scale analytics, we fielded an analytical pipeline of two capabilities. HyperNetX (HNX) is a Python package for the exploration and visualization of hypergraphs, acting as a frontend. For the backend, the Chapel HyperGraph Library (CHGL) is a library for high performance hypergraph analytics written in the exascale programming language Chapel. CHGL was used to process gigascale DNS data, performing compute-intensive calculations for data reduction and segmentation. Identified portions are then sent to HNX for both exploratory analysis and knowledge discovery targeting known tactics, techniques, and procedures.

Joslyn, Cliff A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Fine-grained Asynchronous Bulk Synchronous parallelism model for PGAS applications

The Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) model is well suited for executing irregular applications on cluster-based systems, due to its efficient support for short, one-sided messages. Separately, the actor model has been gaining popularity as a productive asynchronous message-passing approach for distributed objects in enterprise and cloud computing platforms, typically implemented in languages such as Erlang, Scala or Rust. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no past work on using the actor model to deliver both productivity and scalability to irregular PGAS applications with large number of small messages. In this paper, we introduce a new programming system for PGAS applications, in which point-to-point remote operations can be expressed as fine-grained asynchronous actor messages. In our approach, the programmer does not need to worry about programming complexities related to message aggregation and termination detection. Our approach can be viewed as extending the classical Bulk Synchronous Parallelism model with fine-grained asynchronous communications within a phase or superstep. Here, we believe that our approach offers a desirable point in the productivity-performance space for PGAS applications, with more scalable performance and higher productivity relative to past approaches. Specifically, for seven irregular mini-applications from the Bale Kernels and three graph kernels executed using 2048 cores in the NERSC Cori system, our approach shows geometric mean performance improvements of ≥ 20X relative to standard PGAS versions (UPC and OpenSHMEM) while maintaining comparable productivity to those versions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Analysis Net with Causal Embedding for Coal-fired Power Plant Fault Detection and Diagnosis (DANCE4CFDD)

Fault detection and diagnosis is critical to power plant operation to ensure attaining high reliability while reducing operation cost. As more renewable power is introduced to the power grid, traditional fossil power plants take on the extra burden of excessive load cycling to compensate the generation variability from renewable power. Such load cycling will pose more reliability challenges to power plant operation. There are a number of challenges faced by today’s asset health management system in coal- fired (or gas) power plants: 1) high-dimensional nonlinear interaction among multiple time series measurements; 2) high measurement variance induced by operational conditions/modes; 3) variation among asset types and plant configurations; and 4) a small number of faulty events to learn from. To cope with these challenges, today’s fielded asset health management systems rely heavily on manual efforts from domain experts and hand-crafted features or rules based on domain knowledge. Despite its role in plant reliability, such a practice is costly and hinders its scalability and sustainability, particularly when a plant undergoes modifications. The objective of this project is to develop a novel end-to-end AI learning system that is trainable (i.e., the AI representation of a complex system behavior can be directly learned from properly labeled data) for accurate fault detection and root cause analysis. The ability to create a fault detection model directly from time series could alleviate the efforts associated with today’s asset management solution development. In the course of this project, we have achieved the following: Created an AI model development environment incorporating state-of-the-art neural network architectures for rapid model development and evaluation; Developed novel learning strategies for training of fault detection model; Developed special-purpose neural network architecture embedded with variable association graph aiming for better interpretability; Developed a learning strategy to leverage a small number of faulty events for enhanced fault detection capability; Conducted detailed experimental study based on public benchmark datasets and demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed solution; and Validated the developed system with data from both a coal-fired plant boiler dynamic simulation model and real-world coal-fired power plant covering multiple asset and fault types. Overall, the project attained a technology readiness level of TRL 5 from TRL 2 at the beginning of the project.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Population Simulation, AKA: Grahz, Rahbitz and Fawkzes

In an effort to give students a more visceral experience of science and instill a deeper working knowledge of concepts, activities that utilize hands-on, laboratory and simulated experiences are recommended because these activities have a greater impact on student learning, especially for Native American students. Because it is not usually feasible to take large and/or multiple classes of high school science students into the field to count numbers of organisms of a particular species, especially over a long period of time and covering a large area of an environment, the population simulation presented in this paper was created to aid students in understanding population dynamics by working with a simulated environment, which can be done in the classroom. Students create an environment and populate the environment with imaginary species. Then, using a sequence of "rules" that allow organisms to eat, reproduce, move and age, students see how the population of a species changes over time. In particular, students practice collecting data, summarizing information, plotting graphs, and interpreting graphs for such information as carrying capacity, predator prey relationships, and how specific species factors impact population and the environment. Students draw conclusions from their results and suggest further research, which may involve changes in simulation parameters, prediction of outcomes, and testing predictions. The population Simulation has demonstrated success in the above student activities using a "board game" version of the population simulation. A computer version of the population simulation needs more testing, but preliminary runs are promising. A second - and more complicated - computer simulation will simulate the same things and will add simulated population genetics.

Bangert, Tyler R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Perceptions of Climate Risk and Use of Climate Risk Information by Natural Resource Conservation Stakeholders Participating in ADVANCE Projects in Asia and Latin America

Integrating climate risk information into resilience-building activities in the field is important to ensure that adaptation is based on the best available science. Despite this, many challenges exist when developing, communicating, and incorporating climate risk information. There are limited resources on how stakeholders perceive risks, use risk information, and what barriers exist to limit knowledge integration. This paper seeks to define the following: 1) What do conservation stakeholders consider to be the most significant climate risks they face now and possibly in the future? 2) What have been the most significant barriers to their using climate risk information? 3) What sources and types of knowledge would be most useful for these managers to overcome these barriers? A survey was conducted among stakeholders (n = 224) associated with World Wildlife Fund projects in tropical and subtropical countries. A very high proportion of stakeholders used climate risk information and yet faced integration-related challenges, which included too much uncertainty and the lack of a relevant scale for planning. The main factors preventing the use of climate risk information in decision-making were unavailability of climate risk information, no or limited financial or human resources available to respond, lack of organizational mandate or support, and no or limited institutional incentives. Comparing perceived current and future risks revealed a decline in concern for some future climate hazards. Survey respondents identified scientific reports, climate scientists, and online sources as the most useful information sources of climate risk information, while (i) maps and illustrations; (ii) scenarios format; and (iii) data tables, graphs, and charts were identified as user-friendly formats.

Climate risk↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Mathematical Analysis of an Example Delay Tolerant Network using the Theory of Sheaves

NASA’s High-Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is working towards a general yet practical toolkit and knowledge base to help usher in the era of new technologies for space systems communications, such as optical links. The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) implementation falls under the umbrellas of both the toolkit and the knowledge base, as its advancements illuminate more general areas of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) that need growth. The goal of this paper is to explore the usage of particular mathematical machineries, namely temporal flow networks and sheaves, to identify fundamental, underlying structures in DTN for space systems. Satellites, space assets, ground stations, etc. give rise to a disconnected network, and it is the goal of DTN to glue disparate links together into a cohesive system, that is, a network. Depending on a given link, the latencies might be beyond that which the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) can handle, and contact times might have one-way light times in excess of minute (sometimes significantly longer). Some links might be periodic (say, due to orbital mechanics) or they might not be. This diversity has made it difficult to probe the underlying structure. An immediate consequence is that DTNs in practice today are controlled by globally distributed contact plans (schedules), which are the input to the contact graph routing (CGR) algorithm. While this is effective for smaller networks, it will be very difficult to scale for future networks. Deeper and more rigorous theory is needed to bring DTN to the next evolutionary step. To this end, this paper introduces and suggests a mathematical framework for DTN, and applies it to a space network that is simulated using an orbital analysis toolkit. The tag-line for the structure known as sheaves is that they are the mathematically precise way of gluing local data together into unique, global data. If we consider routing, we see that networking is a “sheafy” science. We then discuss a simplified sheaf model, known as the cellular sheaf. The sheaf-theoretic analysis is presented and discussed, as it is hoped that this and related papers will help form the primordial ooze of DTN theory. Finally there is a section of future work suggesting follow-on research.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neuromorphic Graph Algorithms

Graph algorithms enable myriad large-scale applications including cybersecurity, social network analysis, resource allocation, and routing. The scalability of current graph algorithm implementations on conventional computing architectures are hampered by the demise of Moore’s law. We present a theoretical framework for designing and assessing the performance of graph algorithms executing in networks of spiking artificial neurons. Although spiking neural networks (SNNs) are capable of general-purpose computation, few algorithmic results with rigorous asymptotic performance analysis are known. SNNs are exceptionally well-motivated practically, as neuromorphic computing systems with 100 million spiking neurons are available, and systems with a billion neurons are anticipated in the next few years. Beyond massive parallelism and scalability, neuromorphic computing systems offer energy consumption orders of magnitude lower than conventional high-performance computing systems. We employ our framework to design and analyze new spiking algorithms for shortest path and dynamic programming problems. Our neuromorphic algorithms are message-passing algorithms relying critically on data movement for computation. For fair and rigorous comparison with conventional algorithms and architectures, which is challenging but paramount, we develop new models of data-movement in conventional computing architectures. This allows us to prove polynomial-factor advantages, even when we assume a SNN consisting of a simple grid-like network of neurons. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first examples of a rigorous asymptotic computational advantage for neuromorphic computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments [https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.11872]. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hydrological Modeling of the Jezero Crater Outlet-Forming Flood

Abundant evidence exists for lakes on Mars both from orbital observations [e.g., 1-3] and in situ exploration [e.g., 4-5]. These lakes can be divided into two classes: those that were hydrologically closed, so their source valley(s) terminated at the basin [3], and those that were hydrologically open, where there was sufficient flow from inlet valley(s) to cause the lake to breach and form an outlet valley [2]. It is easier to be confident from orbital data alone that a standing body of water must have existed in open basins, because there is no other way for their perched outlet valleys to form. The majority of basins fed by valley networks, rather than by isolated inlet valleys, are open [6], with some important exceptions (e.g., Gale Crater). Jezero crater (Fig. 1) is one of the most well-studied open basin paleolakes on Mars, with a breach that re-mains well above the lowest part of the crater floor, and two sedimentary fans at its northwestern margin that are likely deltaic in origin [7-9]. CRISM observations of these sediments indicate they host a variety of alteration minerals [9-11], including smectite and carbonate, and both the mineralogy of the sediments and their settings suggest they have a strong potential for preserving organic materials [10]. As a result, Jezero is a strong candidate landing site for the Mars 2020 rover. Approximate formative discharges have been estimated for its well-preserved western fan (Q approximately 500m3/s) [7], but to our knowledge, no estimates for the dis-charges associated with formation and incision of its outlet valley have been presented. Indeed, only a few studies [e.g., 12-14] have attempted to reconstruct the formation of outlet breaches broadly similar to Jezero anywhere on Mars, despite the apparent commonality of basins with large outlets [e.g., 2]. The outlet valley formed as a dam breach when the lake overflowed. In such an event, the growth and incision of the breach is directly coupled to flood discharge. In the case of Jezero, the discharge through the breach eventually lacked the energy needed to erode through the dam further, preventing complete drainage of the lake. After the initial flood, further incision can take place if additional water flows into, and thus out of, the hydrologically open lake, though the rate of this erosion occurs under more typical fluvial conditions. Despite this qualitative understanding of the process, it is useful to explore numerically what range of model parameters are potentially consistent with obser-vations of the outlet. We ultimately seek to address questions that include: (1) What was the flood hydro-graph?, (2) What sediment transport processes were involved and what can we infer about the erosion process? (3) Can most or all of the Jezero outlet's morphology be explained as a consequence of catastrophic formation, or is additional longer-term erosion required?

geology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning guided search for energetically favorable metal borocarbide ternary compounds

In this work, we employ machine-learning (ML) combined with first principles calculations to efficiently search for the energetically favorable metal borocarbide (M-B-C) ternary compounds with M being the group 1–3 metal elements. Using a crystal graph convolutional neural network (CGCNN) ML approach followed by first-principles calculations, we predicted 47 energetically favorable stable and metastable ternary Na-B-C, Ca-B-C, and La-B-C ternary compounds with their decomposition energy (E d ) below or within 100 meV/atom from the currently known convex hulls. Phonon spectra and electronic structures of the 14 energetically favorable stable structures are also investigated by first-principles calculations. By substituting the metal atoms in the 29 energetically favorable non-equivalent template structures of Na (Ca, La)-B-C with other group 1–3 elements in the periodic table, we further obtain 22 stable structures and 52 metastable structures (E d ≤100 meV/atom with respect to the known convex hulls) for Li-B-C, K-B-C, Rb-B-C, Mg-B-C, Sr-B-C, Ba-B-C, Sc-B-C and Y-B-C ternary compounds. New convex hulls including our newly predicted stable ternary structures and the known stable structures are constructed for the M-B-C systems. The results obtained by our ML guided first-principles calculations enrich our knowledge in the structure and energy landscape of metal borocarbide ternary compounds and provide useful guidance for further experimental synthesis and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2019

Understanding Machine Learning in Earth Science: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Machine learning (ML) is being increasingly utilized in Earth science research. Benefits of ML include efficiency, reduction of human error, and ability to extract hidden patterns within data. However, the mutual lack of each other’s domain knowledge by ML and Earth science stands as a barrier to timely and effective implementation. Earth science, in particular, faces challenges in generating sample data, compared to those of traditional ML problems such as face recognition or stock predictions, where data is abundant and not lacking in ground truth, which is necessary for labeling. Earth science data are more varying in formats, such as HDF5 and image resolutions, and are not standardized across instruments, even within a given Earth science discipline. Previous studies have been done to outline the specific challenges that Earth science faces with ML, while others have focused on using existing publications to mine information efficiently. Other resources such as Scikit-Learn have developed decision trees for choosing appropriate machine learning algorithms, but application within Earth science subjects becomes much more complex. For the current study, we propose a methodology and tool that aids in implementation of ML in Earth science using natural language processing (NLP). Our work comprises three main parts: (1) analyzing existing publications related to ML and Earth science, using natural language processing: (2) extracting from the publications information on ML models subjects in Earth Science: and (3) visualizing the extracted relationships as a network graph. The resulting network graph should aid the Earth science communities in applying optimal ML algorithms and guiding data preparation through visualization of similar studies. The network graph and analysis of document similarity will be the basis of our next step, which is to develop a decision tree for selecting optimal machine learning methodologies for specified Earth science applications.

Zheng, Laura↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Process of the Development of an Operator

On the job training is where new employees called operators can start gaining knowledge on what they will be working on during their time in JSC. In these lessons I learned different things that are important ranging from thermal systems to electrical systems. While doing OJT classes the student will learn how to use a portable computer system which has displays that I also helped edit and clean up. The way you can also learn is by reading system briefs which describes the different systems. Due to the fact of a possible change in the ISS I updated a systems brief so that it can be relevant to what is actually on the space station. I was given a task that will help develop my skills and make myself better prepared for my future in the work field. The project that I worked on had me pulling real time data from the International Space Station. The Data I obtained from the space station will be correlated to battery performance. The group I will be working which is called REBA and we will take the telemetry and evaluate the data. I will be working with my mentor Ben Chislom and co-op Tyler along with the Pro team. They then will put this data into a graph so that they can get the discrepancies and find a way to improve the battery performance. The first weeks I read familiarization books that informed me how the ISS works, how it was built, and the systems that are used to keep the station working. This project is going to benefit NASA by finding out how electricity is being used on the ISS and enabling us to see how it can be used more efficiently. This way we can operate the ISS without wasting power. While conducting research that goes on inside the space station knowing all electricity is being used efficiently.

Banks, Terrence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of A Directed Acyclic Graph for Venous Thromboembolism During Spaceflight

Introduction: Recent studies have reported the development of venous blood flow stasis in astronauts and an occlusive venous thrombosis during spaceflight. Subsequent investigations revealed approximately one quarter of surveilled crew members had some degree of blood flow stasis in the left internal jugular vein. Therefore, NASA’s Human System Risk Board now formally tracks venous thromboembolism (VTE) as a “concern” for human spaceflight. To investigate potential mechanisms by which exposures concomitant with spaceflight (e.g., microgravity, radiation) may contribute to VTE, we developed a causal diagram in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Methods: The mechanisms by which spaceflight exposures may elevate the risk of VTE and the downstream effects on mission outcomes were critically analyzed, taking into account scientific literature and subject matter expertise consultation, and a DAG was generated. A Level-of-Evidence score for each causal relationship was assigned based on assessing the literature against a set of criteria derived from the A. Bradford Hill Causal Guidelines. Results: The set of three main factors that predispose people to VTE (hypercoagulability, endothelial damage, and blood stasis) is known as Virchow’s Triad. In constructing the DAG for VTE we articulated various mechanisms by which the principal spaceflight hazards (microgravity, radiation, closed hostile environment, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth) are thought to interact with or cause the components in Virchow’s triad. We found sufficient evidence to at least speculate that fluid shifts from microgravity, compensatory alterations in hematologic indices, spaceflight atmospheric conditions, and oxidative stress/inflammation from radiation may be potential contributors to VTE development. Discussion: Developing the DAG entailed a systematic and repeatable approach for visualizing relationships between contributing factors that may lead to VTE in spaceflight. Articulating pathways linking spaceflight exposures to VTE risk factors and possible VTE development enables subject matter experts from different domains to construct a shared mental model. Assignment of levels of evidence scores to the relationships helps identify knowledge and capability gaps that should be considered for further investigation. Furthermore, the DAG highlights modifiable variables and may therefore facilitate the development of new VTE risk mitigation strategies.

Alexander Svoronos↗