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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

This paper presents a technical approach to improve the confidence in the systems analysis process by integrating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques within a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) framework. The MBSA&E architecture uses system models and multidisciplinary analytical solutions as central artifacts for system design and analysis. The integration of UQ enables engineers to assess and mitigate uncertainties associated with a system model, design parameters, and constraint inputs, leading to more complete design studies and further informed decision-making processes. The proposed approach leverages the strengths of MBSA&E and extends it with a UQ methodology to quantify uncertainties in the input parameters and to trace the uncertainties as they propagate throughout the system model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated MBSA&E-UQ approach, a case study involving a simplified analysis of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept vehicle is performed. This integration enables a more comprehensive evaluation of system performance and behavior under uncertainty and a more robust approach for system design and analysis. Lastly, the paper addresses the challenges and considerations associated with integrating UQ into an MBSA&E framework.

systems analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fully implicit crystal plasticity models representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters

Here, this work describes a crystal plasticity formulation combining several mathematical, numerical, and implementation choices to produce a highly efficient model. Specifically, the key choices in the implementation are (1) representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters, (2) implementing a fully coupled implicit time integration for the elastic stretch, the crystal orientations, and the model internal variables, (3) implementing the model in the NEML2 constitutive modeling framework, based on PyTorch, to vectorize the calculations and port the computation to GPUs and other hardware accelerators, and (4) an exact implementation of the consistent tangent matrix, even for arbitrary coupling to other field variables beyond the displacements, like temperature, neutron fluence, etc. The first two features of the model are, to our knowledge, novel. The paper considers each of these choices individually as well as the final model as a whole. This includes a full description of modified Rodrigues parameters, their advantages over other representations of orientations, the mathematical formulae and tools required to implement a model with modified Rodrigues parameters, and a detailed description of the geometry of the space of modified Rodrigues parameters (in an appendix). It also includes a description of a fully implicit time integration scheme for the orientations and the advantages in representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters in implementing such a model. The work then assess, via numerical examples, the advantages of fully coupled implicit time integration versus more common decoupled and explicit time integration schemes. These studies demonstrate the computational advantages of fully coupled integration versus other time integration algorithms, though the performance of the competing models depends on the complexity of the underlying single crystal model. The study concludes by demonstrating that the choice of time integration method affects the sharpness of the predicted texture, with explicit methods for integrating the orientations overestimating texture sharpness and implicit methods underestimating texture sharpness.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2022

A combined experimental and modelling study of granite hydrothermal alteration

Geochemical reactions can induce significant changes of rock reservoir porosity and permeability via mineral dissolution and precipitation processes, affecting the long-term fluid behaviour within various geological systems. Here, the understanding and quantification of these reactions rely on field and experimental studies and on the predictions of reactive transport models. The present study was aimed at assessing the extent to which current geochemical models integrating available mineral dissolution/precipitation rate equations can reproduce the experimental data obtained from 4 to 17-day long hydrothermal alteration experiments of a muscovite-biotite granite and, thus, help provide an accurate description of the evolution of geothermal systems within granitic reservoirs. The experiments were conducted at a constant temperature of 180 °C and over an aqueous fluid pH range of 2 to 8.5, using both mixed-flow and static batch reactors. Modelled major element (K, Al, Si, Ca, and Mg) concentrations were generally in satisfactory agreement with the corresponding measured elemental fluxes – the differences between modelled and experimental values were generally within a factor of 5 – and the predicted identity and mass of formed secondary phases were consistent with the microscopic observations of the reacted solids. However, larger differences between measured and modelled element concentrations were observed when significant amounts of secondary phases formed, notably at pH 2 to 3, and for longer-term batch experiments. Much of this concentration difference stems from the underestimation of the amounts of Al-phases formed at acid to near-neutral pH. Although an idealized rock composition was considered, the observed mismatch between model calculations and experimental data can be attributed to inadequate mineral precipitation reaction rates and a poor description of reactive surface areas in existing geochemical modelling codes. More accurate quantification of precipitation kinetics, including nucleation and growth, and improved descriptions of the temporal change of mineral surface area would enhance the predictive capabilities of reactive transport models and benefit, particularly, the efforts aimed at increasing the sustainability of EGS reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction and Experimental Verification of Electrolyte Solvation Structure from an OMol25-Trained Interatomic Potential

A molecular-level understanding of electrolyte solvation structure and ion–ion correlations is critical to developing next-generation battery chemistries. Atomistic simulation capabilities with sufficient accuracy, speed, and transferability to deliver reliable structural insights while avoiding arduous system-specific reparameterization are thus highly desirable. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) trained on large, chemically diverse data sets are revolutionizing computational chemistry, enabling molecular dynamics simulations of battery electrolytes with near-DFT accuracy over 10,000× faster than DFT. While previous MLIP training data sets with suitable elemental coverage for electrolytes have been based on inorganic materials, the Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) data set provides large-scale molecular DFT MLIP training data with broad elemental coverage and specifically samples tens of millions of electrolyte configurations. Here, we integrate computational modeling with experimental validation to systematically assess the ability of large-scale MLIPs pretrained on materials data or on OMol25 to accurately resolve nanoscale structural organization and ion-solvation characteristics in Na-ion battery electrolytes across diverse physicochemical conditions and compositional regimes. We find that the OMol25-trained Universal Model of Atoms (UMA-OMol) predicts experimentally measured densities and X-ray structure factors in substantially better agreement compared to state-of-the-art models trained only on inorganic materials data. Using UMA-OMol, we further analyze systematic trends in solvation structure as a function of cation identity, anion chemistry, salt concentration, and solvent topology. We observe that increasing system temperature amplifies the heterogeneity within the solvation environment, perturbing cation–solvent interactions and promoting the formation of contact ion pairs (CIPs). Moreover, subtle variations in the solvent topology of glyme-based electrolytes cause pronounced changes in ion correlations and solvation structure. The experimental agreement and microscopic insights shown here position OMol25-trained MLIPs as a practical route to predictive, high-throughput electrolyte simulations beyond the limits of classical force fields and direct DFT molecular dynamics, serving as a powerful tool for accelerating the design of next-generation Na-ion battery electrolytes and beyond.

MLIPs↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward the performance assessment of advanced nuclear waste forms: temperature dependence of lanthanide borosilicate glass dissolution

Lanthanide borosilicate (LaBS) glasses are among the most promising waste forms for the immobilization of high-level radioactive waste generated from advanced nuclear fuel cycles. However, the temperature dependence of their dissolution kinetics remains poorly understood and constrained, limiting the integration of these materials into established performance assessment models. Here, we investigate the dissolution behavior of the legacy AmCm2-19 LaBS glass and the benchmark alkali aluminoborosilicate ISG-1 in deionized water between 50 °C and 250 °C using ASTM C1285 (Product Consistency Test-B) protocols. For AmCm2-19 LaBS glass, normalized elemental release rates for boron and silicon increase with temperature before plateauing near 150 °C, consistent with solubility-limited behavior. From data obtained at 50 °C and 100 °C, Arrhenius analysis yields activation energies of E a (B) = 24.8 ± 0.3 kJ mol⁻¹ and E a (Si) = 14.4 ± 0.2 kJ mol⁻¹, similar or slightly lower than those previously reported for two other compositions of LaBS glasses. No secondary phases or alteration layers were detected by SEM-EDX or pXRD. These results establish one of the first temperature-dependent kinetic datasets for LaBS glass dissolution, providing quantitative parameters to inform mechanistic corrosion models and predictive simulations of glass degradation in geological disposal environments.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1992

1992 NASA Life Support Systems Analysis workshop

The 1992 Life Support Systems Analysis Workshop was sponsored by NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) to integrate the inputs from, disseminate information to, and foster communication among NASA, industry, and academic specialists. The workshop continued discussion and definition of key issues identified in the 1991 workshop, including: (1) modeling and experimental validation; (2) definition of systems analysis evaluation criteria; (3) integration of modeling at multiple levels; and (4) assessment of process control modeling approaches. Through both the 1991 and 1992 workshops, NASA has continued to seek input from industry and university chemical process modeling and analysis experts, and to introduce and apply new systems analysis approaches to life support systems. The workshop included technical presentations, discussions, and interactive planning, with sufficient time allocated for discussion of both technology status and technology development recommendations. Key personnel currently involved with life support technology developments from NASA, industry, and academia provided input to the status and priorities of current and future systems analysis methods and requirements.

Evanich, Peggy L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

GTX Reference Vehicle Structural Verification Methods and Weight Summary

The design of a single-stage-to-orbit air breathing propulsion system requires the simultaneous development of a reference launch vehicle in order to achieve the optimal mission performance. Accordingly, for the GTX study a 300-lb payload reference vehicle was preliminary sized to a gross liftoff weight (GLOW) of 238,000 lb. A finite element model of the integrated vehicle/propulsion system was subjected to the trajectory environment and subsequently optimized for structural efficiency. This study involved the development of aerodynamic loads mapped to finite element models of the integrated system in order to assess vehicle margins of safety. Commercially available analysis codes were used in the process along with some internally developed spread-sheets and FORTRAN codes specific to the GTX geometry for mapping of thermal and pressure loads. A mass fraction of 0.20 for the integrated system dry weight has been the driver for a vehicle design consisting of state-of-the-art composite materials in order to meet the rigid weight requirements. This paper summarizes the methodology used for preliminary analyses and presents the current status of the weight optimization for the structural components of the integrated system.

Hunter, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

GTX Reference Vehicle Structural Verification Methods and Weight Summary

The design of a single-stage-to-orbit air breathing propulsion system requires the simultaneous development of a reference launch vehicle in order to achieve the optimal mission performance. Accordingly, for the GTX study a 300-lb payload reference vehicle was preliminarily sized to a gross liftoff weight (GLOW) of 238,000 lb. A finite element model of the integrated vehicle/propulsion system was subjected to the trajectory environment and subsequently optimized for structural efficiency. This study involved the development of aerodynamic loads mapped to finite element models of the integrated system in order to assess vehicle margins of safety. Commercially available analysis codes were used in the process along with some internally developed spreadsheets and FORTRAN codes specific to the GTX geometry for mapping of thermal and pressure loads. A mass fraction of 0.20 for the integrated system dry weight has been the driver for a vehicle design consisting of state-of-the-art composite materials in order to meet the rigid weight requirements. This paper summarizes the methodology used for preliminary analyses and presents the current status of the weight optimization for the structural components of the integrated system.

Hunter, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Remote Sensing Information Science Research

This document is the final report summarizing research conducted by the Remote Sensing Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara under National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Grant NAG5-10457. This document describes work performed during the period of 1 March 2001 thorough 30 September 2002. This report includes a survey of research proposed and performed within RSRU and the UCSB Geography Department during the past 25 years. A broad suite of RSRU research conducted under NAG5-10457 is also described under themes of Applied Research Activities and Information Science Research. This research includes: 1. NASA ESA Research Grant Performance Metrics Reporting. 2. Global Data Set Thematic Accuracy Analysis. 3. ISCGM/Global Map Project Support. 4. Cooperative International Activities. 5. User Model Study of Global Environmental Data Sets. 6. Global Spatial Data Infrastructure. 7. CIESIN Collaboration. 8. On the Value of Coordinating Landsat Operations. 10. The California Marine Protected Areas Database: Compilation and Accuracy Issues. 11. Assessing Landslide Hazard Over a 130-Year Period for La Conchita, California Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics for Applied Urban Area Analysis, including: (1) IKONOS Data Processing for Urban Analysis. (2) Image Segmentation and Object Oriented Classification. (3) Spectral Properties of Urban Materials. (4) Spatial Scale in Urban Mapping. (5) Variable Scale Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Signatures. (6) Interpretation and Verification of SLEUTH Modeling Results. (7) Spatial Land Cover Pattern Analysis for Representing Urban Land Use and Socioeconomic Structures. 12. Colorado River Flood Plain Remote Sensing Study Support. 13. African Rainfall Modeling and Assessment. 14. Remote Sensing and GIS Integration.

Clarke, Keith C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of Graphite Degradation due to Molten Salt Infiltration and Wear

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising next-generation reactor design, with graphite serving as a moderator and/or reflector in several designs. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, a technical understanding of the structural integrity of graphite in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report presents a modeling-based evaluation of graphite degradation in MSR environments, focusing on the effects of salt infiltration in fuel salt-based designs and surface wear in pebble bed reactor designs. The objective of this study is to enhance understanding of the structural integrity challenges posed by these degradation mechanisms and to provide a framework for assessing graphite behavior in MSRs. The first part of the report investigates the phenomenon of molten salt infiltration into graphite. This infiltration occurs when molten salt permeates the interconnected pore structure of the graphite moderator, driven by factors such as pressure differentials and the physical properties of both the salt and graphite. The infiltration process is influenced by characteristics of the pore structure, viscosity of the molten salt, and the interfacial energies between the graphite, salt, and the atmosphere within the graphite pore. Utilizing a coupled multiphysics modeling approach with Grizzly software, the study evaluates the stress induced by internal heat sources due to infiltration, which can lead to structural concerns. This evaluation is crucial for understanding how infiltration affects the mechanical integrity of graphite components in MSRs. The study considers the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite stringer geometry due to the availability of relevant data. Through detailed finite element analysis, the study examines stress distributions at varying infiltration percentages, revealing that stress levels increase with higher amounts of infiltration. Rare-event simulations, using the parallel subset simulation (PSS) framework, further quantify the failure probabilities under input uncertainties, with a user-specified failure metric. The PSS framework also identifies critical input parameters that significantly affect the stress values, including infiltration amount, thermal conductivity, and power density. Additionally, considering realistic reactor scenarios, the analysis was performed to account for the combined effects of radiation and infiltration, and modeling strategies on how to analyze new reactor designs or new graphite grades are discussed. The second part of the report focuses on wear mechanisms in pebble bed-based MSRs. As graphite fuel pebbles interact with the graphite reflector block, wear can result in material loss and the formation of surface defects, which may act as stress concentrators. A similar multiphysics modeling framework is employed to assess the impact of wear on the structural integrity of graphite components. This study considers a generic fluoride-cooled high-temperature reactor (gFHR) design due to the availability of comprehensive data. Worst-case scenario dimensions of the reflector blocks were analyzed under thermal and radiation conditions. Subsequently, wear in the form of idealized pits and grooves is modeled on the inner surface of the graphite block, with the maximum stress from previous simulations. The simulations show that groove-type defects are more detrimental than pits, leading to higher stress concentrations. Considering worst-case simulation scenarios and experimental wear rates, it was determined that the formation of a surface defect critical enough to affect the stress may not be possible in a gFHR design. Overall, the findings of this research contribute to the development of robust modeling tools for predicting graphite behavior under various operational conditions in MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Accuracy of the Generalized Self-Consistent Method in Modelling the Elastic Behaviour of Periodic Composites

Local stress and strain fields in the unit cell of an infinite, two-dimensional, periodic fibrous lattice have been determined by an integral equation approach. The effect of the fibres is assimilated to an infinite two-dimensional array of fictitious body forces in the matrix constituent phase of the unit cell. By subtracting a volume averaged strain polarization term from the integral equation we effectively embed a finite number of unit cells in a homogenized medium in which the overall stress and strain correspond to the volume averaged stress and strain of the constrained unit cell. This paper demonstrates that the zeroth term in the governing integral equation expansion, which embeds one unit cell in the homogenized medium, corresponds to the generalized self-consistent approximation. By comparing the zeroth term approximation with higher order approximations to the integral equation summation, both the accuracy of the generalized self-consistent composite model and the rate of convergence of the integral summation can be assessed. Two example composites are studied. For a tungsten/copper elastic fibrous composite the generalized self-consistent model is shown to provide accurate, effective, elastic moduli and local field representations. The local elastic transverse stress field within the representative volume element of the generalized self-consistent method is shown to be in error by much larger amounts for a composite with periodically distributed voids, but homogenization leads to a cancelling of errors, and the effective transverse Young's modulus of the voided composite is shown to be in error by only 23% at a void volume fraction of 75%.

Walker, Kevin P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Optimization Version 4.0 Functional Improvements

The IMMs ability to assess mission outcome risk levels relative to available resources provides a unique capability to provide guidance on optimal operational medical kit and vehicle resources. Post-processing optimization allows IMM to optimize essential resources to improve a specific model outcome such as maximization of the Crew Health Index (CHI), or minimization of the probability of evacuation (EVAC) or the loss of crew life (LOCL). Mass and or volume constrain the optimized resource set. The IMMs probabilistic simulation uses input data on one hundred medical conditions to simulate medical events that may occur in spaceflight, the resources required to treat those events, and the resulting impact to the mission based on specific crew and mission characteristics. Because IMM version 4.0 provides for partial treatment for medical events, IMM Optimization 4.0 scores resources at the individual resource unit increment level as opposed to the full condition-specific treatment set level, as done in version 3.0. This allows the inclusion of as many resources as possible in the event that an entire set of resources called out for treatment cannot satisfy the constraints. IMM Optimization version 4.0 adds capabilities that increase efficiency by creating multiple resource sets based on differing constraints and priorities, CHI, EVAC, or LOCL. It also provides sets of resources that improve mission-related IMM v4.0 outputs with improved performance compared to the prior optimization. The new optimization represents much improved fidelity that will improve the utility of the IMM 4.0 for decision support.

risk assessment↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissemination of Global Flood Severity and Surface Water Mapping using Remote Sensing Data to Global Stakeholders

Flooding is a natural event that occurs frequently with high severity worldwide, responsible for significant societal and economic impacts. Disaster managers face significant challenges managing essential information for preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. The development of an open access, global flood alerting system for effective identification of flood impacted areas, classification of potential impacts, and the formulation of effective emergency response measures requires the incorporation of a wide variety of flood models and remote sensing data sources from multiple platforms. NASA is currently funding projects focused on flood forecasting, post-event flood mapping, flood depth estimation and pre-event flood severity estimation using Earth observation (EO) datasets and derived flood products. A new initiative in the Disasters Program is underway to disseminate flood products from different hydrologic models and sensors to global stakeholders via Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE®, NASA’s Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. This initiative focuses on improving response capacity and use of EO products in near real-time by a broader community for resource planning in case of extreme events. As part of this initiative, we have deployed Model of Models (MoM) – an open-source ensemble approach, that integrates outputs from hydrologic models and EO data from optical imagery to assess flood severity daily at sub-watershed level globally. The MoM output is integrated with the incident event system of DisasterAWARE to generate flood severity risk and flood impact boundaries, which are disseminated via the DisasterAWARE platform to different stakeholders globally for decision-making and response efforts. The next step will focus on using MoM outputs to estimate flood depth and extent mapping using high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery, impact assessment using optical imagery and population datasets, and damage estimation using critical infrastructure datasets, which would be disseminated via DisasterAWARE to decision-makers, emergency managers and first responders around the world.

flood↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗
DOE OSTI2020

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

mountains↗