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At least 325 records · Page 18

Comparative productivity of six bioenergy cropping systems on marginal lands in the Great Lakes Region, United States

Abstract Growing lignocellulosic crops on marginal lands is a promising solution for sustainable biofuel production. We evaluated the productivity of bioenergy cropping systems (switchgrass [ Panicum virgatum L., var. Cave‐In‐Rock], miscanthus [ Miscanthus × giganteus , ‘Illinois clone’], hybrid poplar [ Populus nigra × P. maximowiczii A. Henry ‘NM6’], native grasses [five species], early successional vegetation, and restored prairie vs. historical vegetation [as reference control]) with and without nitrogen fertilization on low‐fertility former cropland at five sites in the Great Lakes Region, United States. We reported biomass yields for the first 7 years after establishment. Switchgrass was most consistently productive across all sites but miscanthus was more productive at three of the five sites. When averaged across sites, years, and nitrogen (N) treatments, biomass yields followed the order miscanthus > switchgrass > hybrid poplar ≈ native grasses > restored prairie > early successional vegetation ≈ historical vegetation, but varied substantially by crop and site, with a significant crop by site interaction. Yields of miscanthus and switchgrass peaked after four–five growing seasons and declined thereafter, while yields of both native grasses and restored prairie increased throughout 6 years with no sign of follow‐on decline, suggesting that polycultures may outperform monocultures over the long term. Yields of early successional vegetation—similar in composition to historical vegetation at each site—did not improve with time. Nitrogen fertilization increased the yields of all cropping systems at all sites. Our results demonstrate the viability of low‐productivity former cropland for long‐term bioenergy production and suggest there is no single crop best suited for all low fertility soils.

Jayawardena, Dileepa M.↗

Impact of landscape design on the greenhouse gas emissions of shrub willow bioenergy buffers in a US Midwest corn-production landscape

Previous studies have evaluated the economics and ecosystem services of perennial bioenergy crops when replacing grain crops on marginal (environmentally critical and/or underproductive) lands. This study used life-cycle analysis (LCA) to investigate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of perennial crops when grown in targeted landscape positions and their impact in reducing nitrogen leaching. Specifically, LCA was performed to evaluate the GHG emissions of growing shrub willow on marginal lands in the Indian Creek watershed in Illinois to assess the sustainability of strategically planted willow buffer strips. Willow was grown as a short-rotation woody crop with a 21-year rotation under three scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) field-scale production with nitrogen fertilizer application and two unfertilized subfield buffer scenarios – landscape single subfield (LSSF) or landscape multiple subfields (LMSF) – grown alongside cornfields to reduce nitrate leaching. Each scenario also considers three field sizes, 2.0, 10.1, and 40.5 ha. The average annual GHG emissions from willow production and depot transportation were 0.32–0.77 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 with the lowest emissions for the LSSF scenario and highest for the BAU. The GHG emissions for the LSSF and BAU scenarios are independent of field size, whereas LMSF emissions increase with increasing field size, 0.41 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 2.0 ha and 0.76 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 40.5 ha. Emission results were most sensitive to the willow yield, followed by fertilizer application rate (BAU only), harvest fuel consumption, and transportation distance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Utilizing digitized occurrence records of Midwestern feral Cannabis sativa to develop ecological niche models

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility-oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021–2040 and 2061–2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Within‐field soil moisture variability and time‐invariant spatial structures of agricultural fields in the US Midwest

Abstract Understanding soil moisture variability and estimating high‐resolution soil moisture at subfield to field scales is critical for agricultural research and applications. However, systematic investigation of subfield scale soil moisture variability over cropland is still lacking from both measurement and satellite remote sensing. In this study, we aim to investigate (1) the characteristics of within‐field soil moisture distribution over typical cropland in the US Midwest and (2) the capabilities of satellite remote sensing in capturing the spatiotemporal variabilities of soil moisture at subfield scale. Specifically, we conducted soil moisture field experiments in three typical commercial agricultural fields (∼85 acres per field) in central Illinois, representing typical commercial farmlands in the US Midwest, and compared the soil moisture measurements with satellite remote sensing data from optical and active microwave sensors. In each field, dense soil moisture samples (spaced at 50–60 m) were obtained for two dry down events in May and July 2021, and multiple long‐term soil moisture stations were installed. We found prominent time‐invariant spatial structures of soil moisture at within‐field scales both during the dry down period and over longer time scales, and the stability is minimally affected by plant water use during the growing season. Comparing the field campaign measurements with satellite remote sensing data, we found that surface reflectance of shortwave infrared bands, such as SWIR1 (1610 nm) from Sentinel‐2, can capture relative surface soil moisture patterns at within‐field scales, but their relationships with soil moisture are field specific. These findings and the improved understanding of within‐field soil moisture dynamics could potentially help future research on high‐resolution soil moisture estimation with multi‐source remote sensing data.

Yang, Yi↗

An overview of the evolving jurisdictional scope of the U.S. Clean Water Act for hydrologists

Abstract The Clean Water Act (CWA) is the primary federal mechanism by which the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of streams, lakes, and wetlands are protected in the United States. The CWA has evolved considerably since its initial passage in 1948, including explicit expansions and contractions of jurisdictional scope through a series of legislative actions, court decisions, and agency rules. Here, we provide a practical summary of the CWA's evolution, detailing the major updates or revisions and their circumstances. Additionally, we identify the jurisdictional scope of the law for rivers and streams, lakes, and wetlands based on the language used and implementation by the agencies during the same time period. While the rulemaking process commonly uses language that will be abstract to many hydrologists, understanding the on‐the‐ground implications, quantifying regulatory (un)certainties, and assessing the magnitude of changes through time is important to understanding the implications of environmental regulation development, litigation, and enforcement. Thus, we translate the enforcement norms and definitions into quantitative estimates for Clean Water Act scope in the Wabash River Basin (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, USA) as a demonstration of the spatial consequences of changing regulatory language. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the applicability of various levels of detail for occupant behavior representation and modeling in building performance simulation

Occupant behavior (OB) is one of the significant sources of uncertainty in building performance simulation. While OB modeling has received increased attention in the past decade, research on the degree of granularity or level of detail (LoD) required for representing occupants is still in the nascent stages. This paper analyzes the modeling and applicability of three LoDs to represent occupants in building performance assessment. A medium-sized prototype office building located in Chicago, Illinois is used as the simulation case study. Ten occupant-centric attributes are adopted to develop the LoDs for OB representation. We first demonstrate the different modeling approaches required for simulating the three fidelity levels. Later, we illustrate the suitability of the developed LoDs in supporting six building performance use cases across different lifecycle stages. Furthermore, this study intends to provide guidance for the building simulation community on appropriate OB representation to support various use cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimizing power system restoration with damaged communications

Utility procedures for power system blackstart and restoration typically assume that energization decisions can be reliably communicated across the grid. In reality, the communications and control network would likely also be affected in power outages, such as those caused by extreme weather events or cyber-attacks. This paper studies the effect of damage to the power system communications and control infrastructure on restoration operations following a blackout. We model the communications infrastructure as a graph, overlaying the power grid, and imposing the requirement that every energized element in the power grid be observable from a control center. We expand on a specialized branch-and-bound algorithm from the literature to optimize the restoration process and devise an initialization heuristic and a rounding heuristic to improve solution speed. We perform numerical experiments on synthetic systems for Illinois and Texas with outages based on a solar flare or hurricane. We compare the results of our specialized branch-and-bound algorithm to the results from (i) the initialization heuristic alone, (ii) a variation of this heuristic that we use as a baseline, and (iii) the restoration optimization for the power system without communications constraints. Here, we find that damage to the communications infrastructure significantly increases the time required to re-energize the grid. Moreover, by simultaneously optimizing communications repairs and grid energization decisions, we are able to re-energize the grid significantly faster than if communications repairs and energization decisions were made independently or with partial coordination, motivating improvements to current industry practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic Unit Commitment: Model Reduction via Learning

As weather-dependent renewable generation increases its share in the generation mix of most electric energy systems, a stochastic unit commitment becomes the natural day-ahead scheduling tool. However, such a tool is generally computationally intractable if a detailed uncertainty description is considered. Taking this into account, we proposed a learning method to make the stochastic unit commitment problem tractable. Here, recent advances in statistical learning and machine learning to address optimization problems can be advantageously applied to the rather intractable stochastic unit commitment problem. Considering these advances, we explore simple learning techniques to drastically reduce the size of a stochastic unit commitment problem without significantly altering its optimal solution. The considered stochastic unit commitment problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The first stage represents commitment decisions, while the second one represents the operation conditions under different scenarios. Taking into account historical solved instances (or proxies for them), we reduce the size (measured by numbers of constraints and variables) of the stochastic unit commitment problem by (i) fixing unchanged binary variables and by (ii) eliminating inactive inequality constraints. Our numerical results show that the reduced problem generally requires significantly less time to solve while obtaining high-quality solutions, which are very close to or indistinguishable from the one obtained by solving the original problem. We use an Illinois 200-bus system to illustrate and characterize the performance of the proposed problem-reduction method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding poromechanical response of a biogenic coalbed methane reservoir

Abstract Biogenic coalbed methane (BCBM) reservoirs aim to produce methane from in situ coal deposits following microbial conversion of coal. Success of BCBM reservoirs requires economic methane production within an acceptable timeframe. The work reported here quantifies the findings of previously published qualitative work, where it was found that bioconversion induces strains in the pore, matrix and bulk scales. Using imaging and dynamic strain monitoring techniques, the bioconversion induced strain is quantified here. To understand the effect of these strains from a reservoir geomechanics perspective, a corresponding poromechanical model is developed. Furthermore, findings of imaging experiments are validated using core-flooding flow experiments. Finally, expected field-scale behavior of the permeability response of a BCBM operation is modeled and analyzed. The results of the study indicated that, for Illinois coals, bioconversion induced strains result in a decrease in fracture porosity, resulting in a detrimental permeability drop in excess of 60% during bioconversion, which festers itself exponentially throughout its producing life. Results indicate that reservoirs with high initial permeability that will support higher Darcian flowrates, would be better suited for coal bioconversion, thereby providing a site-selection criteria for BCBM operations.

Pandey, Rohit (ORCID:0009000415483436)↗

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying carbon budget, crop yields and their responses to environmental variability using the ecosys model for U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems

As one of the major agricultural production areas in the world, the United States (U.S.) Midwest plays a vital role in the global food supply and agricultural ecosystem services. Although significant efforts have been made in modeling the carbon cycle dynamics over this area, large uncertainty still exists in the previous simulations in terms of reproducing individual components of the carbon cycle and their responses to environmental variability. Here we evaluated the performance of an advanced agroecosystem model, ecosys, in simulating carbon budgets over the U.S. Midwest, considering both the magnitude of carbon flux/yield and its response to environmental (climate and soil) variability. We conducted model simulations and evaluations at 7 cropland eddy-covariance sites as well as over 293 counties of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in the U.S. Midwest. The site-level simulations showed that ecosys captured both the magnitude and seasonal patterns of carbon fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco)), leaf area index (LAI), and dynamic plant carbon allocation processes, with R2 equal to 0.92, 0.87, 0.87, and 0.78 for GPP, NEE, Reco, and LAI, respectively across all the sites compared with the observations. For regional scale simulations, ecosys reproduced the spatial distribution and interannual variability of corn and soybean yields with the constraints of observed yields and a new remotely sensed GPP product, with R2 of multi-year averaged simulated and observed yield equal 0.83 and 0.80 for corn and soybean, respectively. The simulated responses of carbon cycle dynamics to environmental variability were consistent with that from the empirical observations at both site and regional scales. Furthermore, our results demonstrated the applicability of ecosys in simulating the carbon cycle and soil carbon dynamics of the U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems under different climate and soil conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nth-plant scenario for blended pellets of Miscanthus, Switchgrass, and Corn Stover using multi-modal transportation: Biorefineries and depots in the contiguous U.S.

The sustainability of the biofuel industry depends on the development of a mature conversion technology on a national level that can take advantage of the economies of scale: the nth-plant. Here, this study addresses the logistic challenge of mobilizing national cellulosic feedstock supplies for a sustainable bioenergy industry. A Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model was developed and updated to deliver on-spec biomass that considers both a desired quantity and quality at the biorefinery. Our supply chain analysis includes multi-modal transport (truck and rail), varying depot and biorefinery sizes, and feedstock blends of corn stover (harvested by either a two- or three-pass method), switchgrass, and miscanthus. The following US states: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas were identified as key locations for producing accessible miscanthus. Based on our most optimistic scenario, using trucks as the only transportation mode in 2040 with a cost target of $\$$79/dt, corn stover, switchgrass, and miscanthus could help meet 48% of the EPA target, 173 million dry tons that translate into 7.8 billion GGE. The addition of rail transportation for biomass delivery to biorefineries could help meet 79% of the EPA target, 283 million dry tons that translate into 12.7 billion GGE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rapid and high-throughput determination of sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) biomass composition using near infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics

Compositional characterization of biomass is vital for the biofuel industry. Traditional wet chemistry-based methods for analyzing biomass composition are laborious, time-consuming, and require extensive use of chemical reagents as well as highly skilled personnel. In this study, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to quickly assess the composition of above-ground vegetative biomass from 113 diverse, photoperiod-sensitive, biomass-type sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) accessions cultivated under field conditions in Central Illinois. Biomass samples were analyzed using NIR spectra collected in the spectral range of 867–2536 nm, with their chemical compositions determined following the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) protocol. Advanced spectral pre-treatment and band selection techniques were utilized to develop calibration models using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The models’ effectiveness was assessed through cross-validation and independent data tests. The predictions for moisture, ash, extractives, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin were accurate and reliable, demonstrating the capability of NIR spectroscopy to provide rapid and precise characterization of sorghum biomass. The results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is an efficient tool for rapidly characterizing sorghum biomass, making it a sustainable option for screening desirable feedstock for biofuel or bioproduct production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data mining of plug-in electric vehicles charging behavior using supply-side data

This paper aims to better understand the charging patterns of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and identify factors that may significantly impact PEVs’ charging behavior. We collected 189,864 supply-side charging session data over 13 months from 821 charging stations in Illinois from ChargePoint. Through descriptive and regression analyses, we characterize the distributions of key charging behavior indicators, including charging location, dwell time, and battery start state of charge (SOC), and quantify the impacts of closely related factors on these charging behaviors. In this work, we find that: (1) PEVs are more likely to charge in the morning at multifamily commercial locations with a lower start SOC compared with single family residential locations; (2) Weekday and morning sessions are more likely to utilize workplace charging and have shorter dwell time compared with weekend and afternoon sessions; (3) Single family residential area and locations with Levels 1/2 chargers have a higher start SOC and longer dwell time compared with other locations and DC fast chargers (DCFCs). These findings provide policy insights to identify potential time and locations to incentivize PEVs for grid services, as well as identify critical location categories for further charging infrastructure investment to better reduce range anxiety and promote PEV adoption.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Microstructural diversity and digestion yields of select bituminous and subbituminous coals as raw material candidates for carbon fiber precursor production

Here, this work investigates the use of coals as raw materials for carbon fiber precursor production as a new alternative to coal utilization. Coal being a highly complex and heterogeneous material with different macerals and minerals complicates this task. Extensive microstructural characterization as well as preliminary digestion studies are performed on three bituminous coals (Herrin and Springfield from the Illinois Basin and the Blue Gem from the Central Appalachians) and one subbituminous coal from the Powder River Basin (Monarch), as raw material candidates. The subbituminous coal was richer in oxygen, lower in sulfur, and had a higher volatile matter yield. Microstructural investigations were performed using X-ray diffraction, X-ray/neutron computed tomography, scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy, and petrology. Mild solvent extraction studies were conducted using creosote and decant oil as solvents in microreactors. The extraction yield was sensitive to temperature and time (350 to 450 °C between 30 and 120 mins.) for both creosote and decant oil digestions. While the Blue Gem coal had more desirable microstructural properties with less mineral content and cleaner macerals, it had the lowest coal conversion to quinoline soluble ‘liquid’ (of the bituminous coals). The lower coal conversion yield was hypothesized to be connected to the lack of FeS2 which could act as a catalyst when Fe is liberated from the structure under solvent extraction conditions. The Herrin and Springfield coals revealed similar microstructures and coal conversion efficiencies (higher than Blue Gem). These coals were the most promising candidates for further examination from this first approximations study. The subbituminous Monarch coal, however, was deemed less suitable due to poor coal conversion and less desirable microstructures. Additionally, the presented results with combined microstructural data from multiple length scales established a framework necessary for a first approximations study in this new coal utilization approach.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

2-D moving mesh modeling of lithium dryout in open surface liquid metal flow applications

Liquid lithium displays increasing promise as a replacement for solid plasma facing components (PFCs) in fusion device applications. The Liquid Metal Infused Trench (LiMIT) system, developed at the University of Illinois (UIUC), has demonstrated how thermoelectric magnetohydrodynamics (TEMHD) can be harnessed to drive liquid lithium flow in an open surface PFC. However, in the highest heat flux applications, large local acceleration is created via TEMHD, and the sudden increase in velocity can cause the liquid level to expose the underlying solid, eliminating the protective benefits of the lithium. In order to study potential mitigation strategies, a 2-D COMSOL Multiphysics model was developed using the moving mesh module to capture free surface flow. The model depicts the development of the dryout phenomenon for 2 test cases – slow (1 cm/s) and medium (10 cm/s) flow in 5 mm deep trenches – including the liquid level reduction under the high heat flux and the pileup of slower flow both upstream and downstream of the heat stripe. The effectiveness of trench shaping dryout mitigation strategies is examined. For the slow flow case, it is shown that a 1.8 mm ledge placed under the heat stripe will stop dryout, and for the medium flow case, a 2.7 mm ledge is required to mitigate the effect. This model can be used to identify strategies for increasing the viable heat load for open surface liquid lithium PFCs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗