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NASA NTRS2004

Mars chronology: assessing techniques for quantifying surficial processes

Currently, the absolute chronology of Martian rocks, deposits and events is based mainly on crater counting and remains highly imprecise with epoch boundary uncertainties in excess of 2 billion years. Answers to key questions concerning the comparative origin and evolution of Mars and Earth will not be forthcoming without a rigid Martian chronology, enabling the construction of a time scale comparable to Earth's. Priorities for exploration include calibration of the cratering rate, dating major volcanic and fluvial events and establishing chronology of the polar layered deposits. If extinct andor extant life is discovered, the chronology of the biosphere will be of paramount importance. Many radiometric and cosmogenic techniques applicable on Earth and the Moon will apply to Mars after certain baselines (e.g. composition of the atmosphere, trace species, chemical and physical characteristics of Martian dust) are established. The high radiation regime may pose a problem for dosimetry-based techniques (e.g. luminescence). The unique isotopic composition of nitrogen in the Martian atmosphere may permit a Mars-specific chronometer for tracing the time-evolution of the atmosphere and of lithic phases with trapped atmospheric gases. Other Mars-specific chronometers include measurement of gas fluxes and accumulation of platinum group elements (PGE) in the regolith. Putting collected samples into geologic context is deemed essential, as is using multiple techniques on multiple samples. If in situ measurements are restricted to a single technique it must be shown to give consistent results on multiple samples, but in all cases, using two or more techniques (e.g. on the same lander) will reduce error. While there is no question that returned samples will yield the best ages, in situ techniques have the potential to be flown on multiple missions providing a larger data set and broader context in which to place the more accurate dates.

Doran, Peter T.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Selection and Assessment of Predictions of the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The successful landing of the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft on Mars allows the review of the process of selecting the landing site and assessing predictions made for the site based on Viking and Earth-based data. Selection of the landing site for Mars Pathfinder was a two-phase process. The first phase took place from October 1993 to June 1994 and involved: initial identification of engineering constraints, definition of environmental conditions at the site for spacecraft design, and evaluation of the scientific potential of different landing sites. This phase culminated with the first "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop", held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas on April 18-19, 1994, in which suggested approaches and landing sites were solicited from the entire scientific community. A preliminary site was selected by the project for design purposes in June 1994. The second phase took place from July 1994 to March 1996 and involved: developing criteria for evaluating site safety using images and remote sensing data, testing of the spacecraft and landing subsystems (with design improvements) to establish quantitative engineering constraints on landing site characteristics, evaluating all potential landing sites on Mars, and certification of the site by the project. This phase included a second open workshop, "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop II: Characteristics of the Ares Vallis Region and Field Trips in the Channeled Scabland, Washington" held in Spokane and Moses Lake September 24-30, 1995 and formal acceptance of the site by NASA Headquarters. Engineering constraints on Pathfinder landing sites were developed from the initial design of the spacecraft and the entry, descent and landing scenario. The site must be within 5 degrees of the subsolar latitude at the time of landing (15N for maximum solar power and flexible communications with Earth. It also must be below 0 km elevation to enable enough time for the parachute to bring the lander to the proper terminal velocity for landing. The entire landing ellipse, which is 70 km by 200 km due to navigational, ephemeris and atmospheric uncertainties, must be free of steep slopes, scarps and obvious hazards in Viking orbiter images, have acceptable radar reflectivity, moderate rock abundances and have little or no dust. Scientific considerations of the Mars Pathfinder payload and mission indicate that analyses of "grab bag" samples at the mouths of outflow channels can offer a first order assessment of a variety of rock types on Mars. Highland sites offer the advantage of in situ analysis of ancient rocks on Mars that record crustal differentiation and the nature of the early environment. Dark gray sites offer the potential of analyzing unweathered and unoxidized materials. Following a general assessment of the safety of different sites, a preliminary selection of a "grab bag" site was made. This site, Ares Vallis, is near the mouth of an outflow channel that may contain ancient Noachian terrain, Hesperian ridged plains, and reworked channel materials. All potential landing sites on Mars that met basic safety criteria were analyzed in detail. Sites (100 by 200 km target ellipses) were considered safe if they were below 0 km elevation, were free of obvious hazards (high relief surface features) in high-resolution (< 50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and had acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, high thermal inertia, moderate rock abundance, low red to violet ratio, and low albedo. Only 4 sites on Mars met all the above criteria, which included 1995 opposition 3.5 cm delay-Doppler radar data. Complete data were evaluated for 7 sites and the Viking landing sites for comparison for all the above criteria as well as crater abundance, hill and mesa abundance, slopes over meter to kilometer scales, low altitude winds (from global circulation models and slopes), the size-frequency distribution of large rocks, as well as rover trafficability and science potential. Discussion of potential hazards at Ares Vallis using a variety of data sets (including radar) at a second open workshop, indicated this site cannot be shown to be any more hazardous than the Viking landing sites. Field trips to the Channeled Scabland and the Ephrata Fan, analogs for Ares Vallis and the landing site, respectively, provided valuable insight into possible geologic processes and potential surface characteristics. Three sites met all the data requirements and safety criteria for landing Pathfinder. Ares Vallis was selected by the project because it appeared acceptably safe (although it appeared to have greater rock abundances than other sites, its elevation was likely the best known) and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which would enable addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The selection was reviewed by an external board at a number of meetings and accepted, and the site was approved by NASA Headquarters. Data gathered by the Pathfinder lander' and rover provides the opportunity to test the predictions made for the site in the selection process based on remote observations from Earth, orbit, and the surface. The discussion below is taken from Golombek et al. to which the reader is referred for a more complete discussion and a complete list of references, which are omitted here for brevity. Many characteristics of the landing site are consistent with its being shaped and deposited by the Ares and Tiu catastrophic floods. The rocky surface is consistent a depositional plain comprising semi-rounded pebbles, cobbles and tabular boulders (some of which appear imbricated and/or inclined in the direction of flow) that appear similar to depositional plains in terrestrial catastrophic floods. The Twin Peaks appear to be streamlined hills in lander images, which is consistent with interpretations of larger hills in Viking orbiter images of the region that suggest the lander is on the flank of a broad, gentle ridge trending northeast from Twin Peaks. This ridge, which is the rise to the north of the lander, is aligned in the downstream direction from the Ares and Tiu Valles floods, and may be a debris tail deposited in the wake of the Twin Peaks. Channels visible throughout the scene may be a result of late stage drainage. As predicted by delay-Doppler radar measurements and tracking results, the average elevation of the center of the site was about the same as Viking Lander I relative to the 6.1 mbar geoid. The Doppler tracking and two-way ranging estimate for the elevation of the spacecraft is only 45 in lower than the Viking I Lander and within 100 in of that expected, which is within the uncertainties of the measurements. After landing, surface pressures and winds (5-10 m/s) were found to be similar to expectations based on Viking data, although temperatures were about 10 K warmer. The temperature profile below 50 km was also roughly 20 K warmer. As a result, predicted densities were 5% higher near the surface and up to 40% lower at 50 km but within the entry, descent and landing design margins. The populations of craters and small hills and the slopes of the hills measured in high-resolution (38 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and the radar derived slopes of the landing site are all consistent with observations of these properties in the lander images. A rocky surface was expected from Viking Infra-Red Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations and comparisons with the Viking landing sites. The observed cumulative fraction of area covered by rocks with diameters greater than 3 cm and heights greater than 0.5 in (potentially hazardous to landing) at Ares is similar to that predicted by IRTM observations and models of Viking lander and Earth analog rock size-frequency distributions. The IRTM prediction postulated an effective thermal inertia of 30 (10(exp -3) cgs units - cal/cubic cm/s(exp 0.5)/K) for the rock population, but we obtain a slightly different effective thermal inertia for the actual rock population. The validity of interpretations of radar echoes prior to landing are supported by a simple radar echo model, an estimate of the reflectivity of the soil from its bulk density, and the fraction of area covered by rocks. In the calculations, the soil produces the quasi-specular echo and the rocks produce the diffuse echo. The derived quasispecular cross section is comparable to the cross-sections and reflectivities reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. The model yields a diffuse echo that is modestly larger than the polarized diffuse echo reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. At 12.5-cm wavelength, similar rock populations at Ares and the Viking I site were expected because the diffuse echoes are comparable, but the large normal reflectivities suggests that bulk densities of the soils at depth are greater than those at the surface. We also obtain a fine-component inertia near 8.4 which agrees with the fine-component inertia of 8.7 (in 10(exp -3) cgs units) estimated from thermal observations from orbit by the IRTM; for this estimate, we used a bulk thermal inertia of 10.4 for the landing site, an effective thermal inertia near 40 (10(exp -3) cgs units) for the rock population, and a graphical representation of Kieffer's model. Color and albedo data for Ares suggested surfaces of materials at Ares Vallis would be relatively dust free or unweathered prior to landing compared with the materials at the Viking landing sites. This suggestion is supported by the abundance of relatively dark-gray rocks at Ares and their relative rarity at the Viking landing sites, where rocks are commonly coated with bright red dust. Finally, the 40 km long Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in Washington state, which was deposited where c

Golombek, M. P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

SPARROW: A Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds

This paper presents the results of a NIAC Phase I study into the use of a propulsively hopping robot for the exploration of Europa’s rugged, icy surface. Named the“Steam Propelled Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds,” SPARROW is a multi-thruster robot passively gimballed within a protective, spherical shell, which enables it to freely rotate, self-right, and tumble over chaotic terrains. SPARROW is envisioned as a soccerball-sized payload to a primary lander mission. Europa’s abundant surface ice would be harvested as an in situ propellant source. The principal objective of SPARROW would be to increase the science return of a Europa landed asset by enabling access to distal, spatially distributed geologic units. The design of mobility systems for Europa is challenging, due in part to its almost entirely unconstrained surface topography and strength. Images returned by Voyager and Galileo yielded resolutions on the order of hundreds of meters per pixel, with localized regions reaching 6 meters per pixel—still far larger than a typical rover. A key beneﬁt of SPARROW’s hopping, impact-tolerant design, is that it eliminates the need for a piori information on the terrain topography and surface strength; no surface reaction forces are required for motion. In this context, SPARROW is entirely terrain agnostic. In this paper we detail the results of three study objectives: i) to quantify the energy required to collect surface ice, change its phase, and maintain propellant temperature, ii) to identify control and estimation strategies that enable SPARROW to successfully reach, and return from, regions of scientiﬁc interest, and iii) to characterize the impact of SPARROW’s range on likely science return. Five water-based propellant architectures are presented alongside their mass, power, and volume requirements. Monte Carlo simulations of SPARROW hopping and tumbling over 1 km of glacial ice are summarized, characterizing SPARROW’s sensitivity to uncertainty in: initial conditions, thrust control, and cage-terrain interaction. Finally, a science traceability matrix is presented, which details the effect of sortie range on three science goals: constraining Europa’s evolutionary morphology, assessing sub-surface ocean habitability, and searching for life and/or biosignatures.

Phillips, Cynthia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review

Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models. Global FEP catalogs describe important natural and man-made repository system features and identify events and processes that may affect these features into the future. By combining FEPs, many of which are uncertain, different possible future system evolution scenarios are derived. Repository licensing should consider both the reference or “base” evolution as well as alternative futures that may lead to radiation release, pollution, or exposures. Scenarios are used to derive and consider both base and alternative evolutions, often through production of scenario-specific SA models and the recombination of their results into an assessment of the risk of harm. Furthermore, while the FEP-based scenario development process outlined here has evolved somewhat since its development in the 1980s, the fundamental ideas remain unchanged. A spectrum of common approaches is given here (e.g., bottom–up vs. top–down scenario development, probabilistic vs. bounding handling of uncertainty), related to how individual numerical models for possible futures are converted into a determination as to whether the system is safe (i.e., how aleatoric uncertainty and scenarios are integrated through bounding or Monte Carlo approaches).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2019

SPARROW: Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds

The Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot (SPARROW) for Ocean Worlds was a Phase I mission concept study funded under the NASA NIAC program. This report represents the findings of that study and recommendations for future work. SPARROW, envisioned as a soccer ball-sized payload to a primary lander mission, is a propulsively hopping robot for the exploration of Europa's rugged, icy surface. A multi-thruster, passively gimballed robot within a protective, spherical shell, SPARROW is able to freely rotate, self-right, and tumble over chaotic terrains. Europa's abundant surface ice would be harvested as an in situ propellant source. The principal objective of SPARROW is to increase the science return of a Europa landed asset by enabling access to distal, spatially distributed geologic units. The design of mobility systems for Europa is challenging, due in part to its almost entirely unconstrained surface topography and strength. Images returned by Voyager and Galileo yielded resolutions on the order of hundreds of meters per pixel, with localized regions reaching 6 meters per pixelâ€”still far larger than a typical rover. A key benefit of SPARROW's hopping, impact-tolerant design, is that it eliminates the need for a priori information regarding terrain topography and surface strength; no surface reaction forces are required for motion. In this context, SPARROW is believed to be entirely terrain agnostic. In this report we detail the results of three study objectives: i) to quantify the energy required to collect surface ice, change its phase, and maintain propellant temperature, ii) to identify control and estimation strategies that enable SPARROW to successfully reach, and return from, regions of scientific interest, and iii) to characterize the impact of SPARROW's range on likely science return. Five water-based propellant architectures are presented alongside their mass, power, and volume requirements. Monte Carlo simulations of SPARROW hopping and tumbling over 1 km of glacial ice are summarized, characterizing SPARROW's sensitivity to uncertainty in: initial pose, thrust profile, and vehicle-terrain interaction. A science traceability matrix is presented, which details the effect of sortie range on three science goals: constraining Europa's evolutionary morphology, assessing sub-surface ocean habitability, and searching for life and/or biosignatures.

Autonomous↗

NASA NTRS2012

The HYSPIRI Decadal Survey Mission: Update on the Mission Concept and Science Objectives for Global Imaging Spectroscopy and Multi-Spectral Thermal Measurements

The NASA HyspIRI mission is planned to provide global solar reflected energy spectroscopic measurement of the terrestrial and shallow water regions of the Earth every 19 days will all measurements downlinked. In addition, HyspIRI will provide multi-spectral thermal measurements with a single band in the 4 micron region and seven bands in the 8 to 12 micron region with 5 day day/night coverage. A direct broadcast capability for measurement subsets is also planned. This HyspIRI mission is one of those designated in the 2007 National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey: Earth Science and Applications from Space. In the Decadal Survey, HyspIRI was recognized as relevant to a range of Earth science and science applications, including climate: "A hyperspectral sensor (e.g., FLORA) combined with a multispectral thermal sensor (e.g., SAVII) in low Earth orbit (LEO) is part of an integrated mission concept [described in Parts I and II] that is relevant to several panels, especially the climate variability panel." The HyspIRI science study group was formed in 2008 to evaluate and refine the mission concept. This group has developed a series of HyspIRI science objectives: (1) Climate: Ecosystem biochemistry, condition & feedback; spectral albedo; carbon/dust on snow/ice; biomass burning; evapotranspiration (2) Ecosystems: Global plant functional types, physiological condition, and biochemistry including agricultural lands (3) Fires: Fuel status, fire frequency, severity, emissions, and patterns of recovery globally (4) Coral reef and coastal habitats: Global composition and status (5) Volcanoes: Eruptions, emissions, regional and global impact (6) Geology and resources: Global distributions of surface mineral resources and improved understanding of geology and related hazards These objectives are achieved with the following measurement capabilities. The HyspIRI imaging spectrometer provides: full spectral coverage from 380 to 2500 at 10 nm sampling; 60 m spatial sampling with a 150 km swath; and fully downlinked coverage of the Earth's terrestrial and shallow water regions every 19 days to provide seasonal cloud-free coverage of the terrestrial surface. The HyspIRI Multi-Spectral Thermal instrument provides: 8 spectral bands from 4 to 12 microns; 60 m spatial sampling with a 600 km swath; and fully downlinked coverage of the Earth's terrestrial shallow water regions every 5 days (day/night) to provide nominally cloud-free monthly coverage. The HyspIRI mission also includes an on-board processing and direct broadcast capability, referred to as the Intelligent Payload Module (IPM), which will allow users with the appropriate antenna to download a subset of the HyspIRI data stream to a local ground station. These science and science application objectives are critical today and uniquely addressed by the combined imaging spectroscopy, thermal infrared measurements, and IPM direct broadcast capability of HyspIRI. Two key objectives are: (1) The global HyspIRI spectroscopic measurements of the terrestrial biosphere including vegetation composition and function to constrain and reduce the uncertainty in climate-carbon interactions and terrestrial biosphere feedback. (2) The global 8 band thermal measurements to provide improved constraint of fire related emissions. In this paper the current HyspIRI mission concept that has been reviewed and refined to its current level of maturity with a Data Products Symposium, Science Workshop and NASA HWorkshop is presented including traceability between the measurements and the science and science application objectives.

Green, Robert O.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitive Response of Atmospheric Oxidative Capacity to the Uncertainty in the Emissions of Nitric Oxide (NO) From Soils in Amazonia

Abstract Soils are a major source of nitrogen oxides, which in the atmosphere help govern its oxidative capacity. Thus the response of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions to forcings such as warming or forest loss has a meaningful impact on global atmospheric chemistry. We find that the soil emission rate of NO in Amazonia from a common inventory is biased low by at least an order of magnitude in comparison to tower‐based observations. Accounting for this regional bias decreases the modeled global methane lifetime by 1.4%–2.6%. In comparison, a fully deforested Amazonia, representing a 37% decrease in global emissions of isoprene, decreases methane lifetime by at most 4.6%, highlighting the sensitive response of oxidation rates to changes in emissions of NO compared to those of terpenes. Our results demonstrate that improving our understanding of soil NO emissions will yield a more accurate representation of atmospheric oxidative capacity.

Geology↗

NASA NTRS1991

Surface activation of air oxidation of hydrazine on kaolinite. 2. Consideration of oxidizing/reducing entities in relationship to other compositional, structural, and energetic factors

The rates (previously reported) for the air oxidation of hydrazine on kaolinite and substituent oxides of kaolinite showed a complex dependence on the relative amounts of several structural oxidizing/reducing entities within the reaction-promoting solids. The rates indicated an important role of the clay but no dominant role of any one of the oxidizing/reducing entities. In this paper we review (a) the reaction-promoting activity of these centers as studied in other systems, (b) various spectroscopic results showing interaction between these entities in clays, and (c) reported spectroscopic studies of the complexation between hydrazine and aluminosilicate surfaces as a whole, in an effort to propose a mechanism for the reaction. Whereas some uncertainties remain, the present synthesis concludes that a mechanism operating through single electron/hole transfers and hydrogen atom transfers by discrete centers is adequate to explain the observed rate behaviors including the observed second order dependence of the oxidation rate on catalyst amount. The effects of these operations on the catalyst can result in no alteration of, or complete or partial electronic relaxation of its contingent of trapped separated charge pairs. The degree to which surface complexation as a whole, intercalation, or luminescent processes may also be associated with the reaction cannot be adequately assessed with the information in hand.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Value of abstraction in performance assessment – When is a higher level of detail necessary?

In this study, different approaches in performance assessment (PA) of the long-term safety of a repository for radioactive waste were examined. This investigation was carried out as part of the DECOVALEX-2023 project, an international collaborative effort for research and model comparison. One specific task of the DECOVALEX-2023 project was the Salt Performance Assessment Modelling task (Salt PA), which aimed at comparing various models and methods employed in the performance assessment of deep geological repositories in salt. In the context of the Salt PA task, three distinct teams from SNL (United States), Quintessa Ltd (United Kingdom), and GRS (Germany) examined the consequences of employing different levels of abstractions when modelling the repository's geometry and implementing various features and processes, using the example of a simple hypothetical repository structure in domal salt. Each team applied their own tools: PFLOTRAN (SNL), QPAC (Quintessa) and LOPOS (GRS). These differ essentially regarding numerical concept and degree of detail in the representation of the underlying physical processes. The discussion focused on when simplifications can be appropriately applied and what consequences result from them. Furthermore, it was explored when and if a higher level of fidelity in geometry or physical processes is required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model

In spite of the importance of land ecosystems in offsetting carbon dioxide emissions released by anthropogenic activities into the atmosphere, the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon fluxes remain largely uncertain at regional to global scales. Over the past decade, data assimilation (DA) techniques have grown in importance for improving these fluxes simulated by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), by optimizing model parameter values while also pinpointing possible parameterization deficiencies. Although the joint assimilation of multiple data streams is expected to constrain a wider range of model processes, their actual benefits in terms of reduction in model uncertainty are still under-researched, also given the technical challenges. In this study, we investigated with a consistent DA framework and the ORCHIDEE-LMDz TBM–atmosphere model how the assimilation of different combinations of data streams may result in different regional to global carbon budgets. To do so, we performed comprehensive DA experiments where three datasets (in situ measurements of net carbon exchange and latent heat fluxes, spaceborne estimates of the normalized difference vegetation index, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration data measured at stations) were assimilated alone or simultaneously. We thus evaluated their complementarity and usefulness to constrain net and gross C land fluxes. We found that a major challenge in improving the spatial distribution of the land C sinks and sources with atmospheric CO 2 data relates to the correction of the soil carbon imbalance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

In-Situ Geochronology as a Mission-Enabling Technology

Although there are excellent estimates of ages of terrains on Mars from crater counting, even a few absolute ages would serve to validate the calibration. Results with uncertainties, although much larger than those that could be achieved in labs on Earth, would be extremely valuable. While there are other possibilities for in-situ geochronology instruments, we describe here to alternative technologies, being developed in JPL. There are two common features of both. The first is analysis by means of miniature mass spectrometer. The second is use of laser sampling to reduce or avoid sample handling, preparation and pre-treatment and equally importantly, to allow analysis of individual, textually resolved minerals in coarse-grained rocks. This textural resolved minerals in coarse-grained rocks. This textural resolution will aid in selection of grains more or less enriched in the relevant elements and allow construction of isochrons for more precise dating. Either of these instruments could enable missions to Mars and other planetary bodies.

geochronology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking: An overview of instruments, methods, data, and applications

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking (U-RadIT) use state-of-the-art ionizing particle and light sources to experimentally study sub-nanosecond transients or dynamic processes in physics, chemistry, biology, geology, materials science and other fields. These processes are fundamental to modern technologies and applications, such as nuclear fusion energy, advanced manufacturing, communication, and green transportation, which often involve one mole or more atoms and elementary particles, and thus are challenging to compute by using the first principles of quantum physics or other forward models. One of the central problems in U-RadIT is to optimize information yield through, e.g. high-luminosity X-ray and particle sources, efficient imaging and tracking detectors, novel methods to collect data, and large-bandwidth online and offline data processing, regulated by the underlying physics, statistics, and computing power. We review and highlight recent progress in: (a.) Detectors such as high-speed complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) cameras, hybrid pixelated array detectors integrated with Timepix4 and other application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and digital photon detectors; (b.) U-RadIT modalities such as dynamic phase contrast imaging, dynamic diffractive imaging, and four-dimensional (4D) particle tracking; (c.) U-RadIT data and algorithms such as neural networks and machine learning, and (d.) Applications in ultrafast dynamic material science using XFELs, synchrotrons and laser-driven sources. Hardware-centric approaches to U-RadIT optimization are constrained by detector material properties, low signal-to-noise ratio, high cost and long development cycles of critical hardware components such as ASICs. Interpretation of experimental data, including comparisons with forward models, is frequently hindered by sparse measurements, model and measurement uncertainties, and noise. Alternatively, U-RadIT make increasing use of data science and machine learning algorithms, including experimental implementations of compressed sensing. Machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches, refined by physics and materials information, may also contribute significantly to data interpretation, uncertainty quantification and U-RadIT optimization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1993

A simple model of clastic sediments on Mars

In preparation for the start of Mars Observer operations at Mars later this year, Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations were synthesized into a simple but geologically coherent conceptual model for use in establishing targets for coordinated Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Mars Observer Camera (MOC) observations. The model is based on three assumptions that are, at best, only partly true: that albedo is a measure of the presence or absence of dust; that thermal inertia is a measure of the weighted average particle size; and that rock abundance is a measure of the statistical thickness of fine sediment (i.e., that the observed areal abundance of rock reflects the whole or partial burial of rocks). Using this model, it is possible to show that, on the scale of 30 km, mantles of wind-transportable sediment (dust and sand) are at most about 1 m thick, and that on a global average such mantles are about 35 cm thick. It is shown that 3.8 x 10(exp 19) cu cm of such sediment covers Mars equatorward of +/- 60 deg latitude. Using the model, interpretation of digital maps of IRTM data focus attention not only on areas where dust is the primary sediment (e.g., Arabia Terra), but also on areas where sand is the primary sediment (e.g., eastern Valles Marineris) and where rocks and other coarse materials are abundant (e.g., eastern Kasei Vallis). Three IRTM data sets are used in the analysis: Viking 1 and 2 pre-dawn observations mosaiced into a global map of single-point thermal inertias at 0.5 deg/bin resolution; Pleskot and Miner's global albedo map using the best available, clear-period IRTM observations (1x/bin); and Christensen's 1 deg/bin rock abundance map. Uncertainty analyses indicate these data sets to be accurate to 5 percent, 2 percent, and 20 percent, respectively.

Christensen, Philip R.↗