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At least 325 records · Page 18

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗

Learning to Optimize Variational Quantum Circuits to Solve Combinatorial Problems

Quantum computing is a computational paradigm with the potential to outperform classical methods for a variety of problems. Proposed recently, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is considered as one of the leading candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage in the near term. QAOA is a variational hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems. The quality of the solution obtained by QAOA for a given problem instance depends on the performance of the classical optimizer used to optimize the variational parameters. In this paper, we formulate the problem of finding optimal QAOA parameters as a learning task in which the knowledge gained from solving training instances can be leveraged to find high-quality solutions for unseen test instances. To this end, we develop two machine-learning-based approaches. Our first approach adopts a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn a policy network to optimize QAOA circuits. Our second approach adopts a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to learn a generative model of optimal QAOA parameters. In both approaches, the training procedure is performed on small-sized problem instances that can be simulated on a classical computer; yet the learned RL policy and the generative model can be used to efficiently solve larger problems. Furthermore, extensive simulations using the IBM Qiskit Aer quantum circuit simulator demonstrate that our proposed RL- and KDE-based approaches reduce the optimality gap by factors up to 30.15 when compared with other commonly used off-the-shelf optimizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined CDF and D0 upper limits on $gg\to H\to W^+W^-$ and constraints on the Higgs boson mass in fourth-generation fermion models with up to 8.2 fb$^{-1}$ of data

We combine results from searches by the CDF and D0 Collaborations for a standard model Higgs boson (H) in the processes gg {yields} H {yields} W{sup +}W{sup -} and gg {yields} H {yields} ZZ in p{bar p} collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at {radical}s = 1.96 TeV. With 8.2 fb{sup -1} of integrated luminosity analyzed at CDF and 8.1 fb{sup -1} at D0, the 95% C.L. upper limit on {sigma}(gg {yields} H) x {Beta}(H {yields} W{sup +}W{sup -}) is 1.01 pb at m{sub H} = 120 GeV, 0.40 pb at m{sub H} = 165 GeV, and 0.47 pb at m{sub H} = 200 GeV. Assuming the presence of a fourth sequential generation of fermions with large masses, we exclude at the 95% Confidence Level a standard-model-like Higgs boson with a mass between 124 and 286 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Generator Step-Up Transformers

In 2014, the online monitoring (OLM) of active components project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) focused on diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for generator step-up transformers. INL worked with subject matter experts from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to augment and revise the GSU fault signatures previously implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. Two prognostic models were identified and implemented for GSUs in the FW-PHM Suite software. INL and EPRI demonstrated the use of prognostic capabilities for GSUs. The complete set of fault signatures developed for GSUs in the Asset Fault Signature Database of the FW-PHM Suite for GSUs is presented in this report. Two prognostic models are described for paper insulation: the Chendong model for degree of polymerization, and an IEEE model that uses a loading profile to calculates life consumption based on hot spot winding temperatures. Both models are life consumption models, which are examples of type II prognostic models. Use of the models in the FW-PHM Suite was successfully demonstrated at the 2014 August Utility Working Group Meeting, Idaho Falls, Idaho, to representatives from different utilities, EPRI, and the Halden Research Project.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Harmonic Modeling, Data Generation and Analysis of Power Electronics-Interfaced Residential Loads

The share of electronics-based residential load is expected to rise as devices such as variable frequency drives (VFDs), electric vehicle chargers, and inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs), e.g., photovoltaic (PV) systems become more common. These loads may introduce significant harmonics into power networks that need to be closely studied in order to perform accurate load modeling and forecasting. However, it can be difficult to obtain harmonic-rich voltage and current data - necessary for identifying accurate load models - for residential electrical loads. Recognizing this need, we identify and model a set of electronics-based end-use loads and DERs in an electromagnetic transients program (EMTP) tool for a residence with a single- phase split-phase supply. Further, a procedure is developed to model harmonic interactions between end-use loads connected to the same non-ideal supply voltage in a residential setting. Finally, a harmonic-rich dataset produced via the proposed procedure is utilized to identify frequency coupling matrix (FCM) based load model. Numerical results demonstrate the accuracy of the model, and explore model identifiability with limited data points.

harmonics, power quality, load modeling↗

Conditional distribution estimation of building characteristics with diffusion models for urban energy modeling

Understanding current energy consumption behavior in communities is critical for informing future energy use decisions and enabling efficient energy management. Urban energy models, which are used to simulate these energy use patterns, require large datasets with detailed building characteristics for accurate outcomes. However, such detailed characteristics at the individual building level are often unknown and costly to acquire, or unavailable. Through this work, we propose using a generative modeling approach to generate realistic building attributes to fill in the data gaps and finally provide complete characteristics as inputs to energy models. Our model learns complex, building-level patterns from training on a large-scale residential building stock model containing 2.2 million buildings. We employ a tabular diffusion-based framework that is designed to handle heterogeneous (discrete and continuous) features in tabular building data, such as occupancy, floor area, heating, cooling, and other equipment details. We develop a capability for conditional diffusion, enabling the imputation of missing building characteristics conditioned on known attributes. We conduct a comprehensive validation of our conditional diffusion model, firstly by comparing the generated conditional distributions against the underlying data distribution, and secondly, by performing a case study for a Baltimore residential region, showing the practical utility of our approach. Our work is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of generative modeling to accelerate building energy modeling workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Microscopy modality transfer of steel microstructures: Inferring scanning electron micrographs from optical microscopy using generative AI

Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is resource intensive, which limits its throughput in some applications. As an alternative, we propose applying computer vision and machine learning to generate high-quality synthetic SEM micrographs from micrographs obtained using light optical microscopy (LOM). Working with a correlated LOM/SEM dataset of dual-phase steel images, we test generative models of various architectures, including encoder-decoder networks, generative adversarial networks (GANs), and diffusion-based models. We find that the diffusion models significantly outperform other methods on both qualitative and quantitative assessments, while preserving key metallurgical meaning. This work establishes diffusion as the state-of-the-art for microscopy modality transfer and demonstrates the potential of AI-powered microscopy to enhance LOM with micron scale structural recreation.

Computer vision↗

Convergence of Weak-SINDy Surrogate Models

In this paper, we give an in-depth error analysis for surrogate models generated by a variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method. We start with an overview of a variety of nonlinear system identification techniques, namely SINDy, weak-SINDy, and the occupation kernel method. Under the assumption that the dynamics are a finite linear combination of a set of basis functions, these methods establish a linear system to recover coefficients. We illuminate the structural similarities between these techniques and establish a projection property for the weak-SINDy technique. Following the overview, we analyze the error of surrogate models generated by a simplified version of weak-SINDy. In particular, under the assumption of boundedness of a composition operator given by the solution, we show that (i) the surrogate dynamics converges towards the true dynamics and (ii) the solution of the surrogate model is reasonably close to the true solution. Finally, as an application, we discuss the use of a combination of weak-SINDy surrogate modeling and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to build a surrogate model for partial differential equations (PDEs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transactional Knowledge Graph Generation To Model Adversarial Activities

A Knowledge Graph (KG) is a formal and structured representation of facts, relationships, and semantic descriptions of a set of entities. Traditionally, KGs are used to describe metadata about entities and to provide additional context to target application results. Many real-world domains also involve temporal interactions between entities in addition to the metadata data. Modeling these attributed transactions is a critical requirement when using KGs in complex real-world applications. Modeling adversarial activities is one such application that develops methodology and tools to produce realistic large-scale background activity graphs that include embedded Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) activity patterns. We present a novel platform for constructing a transactional knowledge graph from a diverse set of sources. We present the core components and architecture of the framework, and a use case for generating a background knowledge graph and WMD activity template to evaluate network alignment and subgraph matching algorithms.

Purohit, Sumit↗

Tissue scale agent-based simulation of premalignant progressions in Barrett’s esophagus

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is a benign condition of the distal esophagus that initiates a multistage pathway to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Short of frequent intrusive (and costly) surveillance, effective screening for neoplasia in BE populations is yet to be established since progressors are rare and virtually undetectable without routine biopsies, which often sample only a small portion of the BE tissue. As a result, reliable estimation of the true prevalence of dysplasia in a BE population and evidence-based optimization of screening for at-risk individuals is challenging. Data-driven microsimulations, i.e., model-generated instances of disease history in a predefined virtual population, have found utility in the EAC screening literature as low-overhead alternatives to real-world hypothesis testing of optimal interventions for dysplasia. Despite the successes, computational limitations, paucity of knowledge and data on Barrett’s dysplasia, and the complexities of disease progression as a multiscale multiphysics process have hindered the treatment of disease progression in BE as a spatial process. Agent-based modeling of nucleation and proliferation processes in dysplasia warrants exploration in this context as an approximation that operates at a trade-off between computational tractability and precise representation of the composition and physics of the substrate (tissue). In this study, we describe spatially resolved simulations of premalignant progression toward EAC in a coarse-grained model of Barrett’s tissue that resolves the metaplastic tissue at a length scale of 0.42 mm (~3300 crypts/mm 2 ). Finally, the model is calibrated to reproduce historical high-grade dysplasia prevalence when model-generated patients are screened using the Seattle protocol.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cost‐effective monitoring of biological invasions under global change: a model‐based framework

Summary Ecological monitoring programmes are designed to detect and measure changes in biodiversity and ecosystems. In the case of biological invasions, they can contribute to anticipating risks and adaptively managing invaders. However, monitoring is often expensive because large amounts of data might be needed to draw inferences. Thus, careful planning is required to ensure that monitoring goals are realistically achieved. Species distribution models ( SDM s) can provide estimates of suitable areas to invasion. Predictions from these models can be applied as inputs in optimization strategies seeking to identify the optimal extent of the networks of areas required for monitoring risk of invasion under current and future environmental conditions. A hierarchical framework is proposed herein that combines SDM s, scenario analysis and cost analyses to improve invasion assessments at regional and local scales. We illustrate the framework with Acacia dealbata Link. (Silver‐wattle) in northern Portugal. The framework is general and applicable to any species. We defined two types of monitoring networks focusing either on the regional‐scale management of an invasion, or management focus within and around protected areas. For each one of these two schemes, we designed a hierarchical framework of spatial prioritization using different information layers (e.g. SDM s, habitat connectivity, protected areas). We compared the performance of each monitoring scheme against 100 randomly generated models. In our case study, we found that protected areas will be increasingly exposed to invasion by A. dealbata due to climate change. Moreover, connectivity between suitable areas for A. dealbata is predicted to increase. Monitoring networks that we identify were more effective in detecting new invasions and less costly to management than randomly generated models. The most cost‐efficient monitoring schemes require 18% less effort than the average networks across all of the 100 tested options. Synthesis and applications . The proposed framework achieves cost‐effective monitoring networks, enabling the interactive exploration of different solutions and the combination of quantitative information on network performance with orientations that are rarely incorporated in a decision support system. The framework brings invasion monitoring closer to European legislation and management needs while ensuring adaptability under rapid climate and environmental change.

Vicente, Joana R.↗

Polarization Signatures of Kink Instabilities in the Blazar Emission Region from Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Kink instabilities are likely to occur in the current-carrying magnetized plasma jets. Recent observations of the blazar radiation and polarization signatures suggest that the blazar emission region may be considerably magnetized. While the kink instability has been studied with first-principle magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations, the corresponding time-dependent radiation and polarization signatures have not been investigated. In this paper, we perform comprehensive polarization-dependent radiation modeling of the kink instability in the blazar emission region based on relativistic MHD (RMHD) simulations. We find that the kink instability may give rise to strong flares with polarization angle (PA) swings or weak flares with polarization fluctuations, depending on the initial magnetic topology and magnetization. These findings are consistent with observations. Compared with the shock model, the kink model generates polarization signatures that are in better agreement with the general polarization observations. Therefore, we suggest that kink instabilities may widely exist in the jet environment and provide an efficient way to convert the magnetic energy and produce multiwavelength flares and polarization variations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of streaked images of x-ray self-emission in laser-driven spherical implosions

Imaging of x-ray self-emission provides a powerful in situ measurement of the spatial and temporal evolution of high-energy-density plasmas. However, interpretation of these measurements requires detailed understanding of the data-generating process. This work presents a case study in the interpretation of x-ray self-emission data for the specific application of streaked one-dimensional slit imaging of spherical laser-driven implosions. A comprehensive generative model of the streaked slit-imaging diagnostic is developed including detailed treatments of the radiation transfer, photometrics, and photostatistics associated with the measurement. The model is used to generate realistic synthetic streaked images and to analyze experimental streaked images to extract important physical quantities of interest. An example analysis of streaked images from implosion experiments on the OMEGA laser is presented, where the model developed in this work is used to constrain the trajectory and peak velocity of the implosion using Bayesian inference.

Bayesian inference↗

The Role of Radiative Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Development under Realistic Boundary Conditions

Abstract The impact of radiative interactions on tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is investigated using a global, TC-permitting general circulation model (GCM) with realistic boundary conditions. In this model, synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed by overwriting the model-generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with their monthly varying climatological values. When radiative interactions are suppressed, the global TC frequency is significantly reduced, indicating that radiative interactions are a critical component of TC development even in the presence of spatially varying boundary conditions. The reduced TC activity is primarily due to a decrease in the frequency of pre-TC synoptic disturbances (“seeds”), whereas the likelihood that the seeds undergo cyclogenesis is less affected. When radiative interactions are suppressed, TC genesis shifts toward coastal regions, whereas TC lysis locations stay almost unchanged; together the distance between genesis and lysis is shortened, reducing TC duration. In a warmer climate, the magnitude of TC reduction from suppressing radiative interactions is diminished due to the larger contribution from latent heat release with increased sea surface temperatures. These results highlight the importance of radiative interactions in modulating the frequency and duration of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Pulmonary lobe segmentation based on ridge surface sampling and shape model fitting

Purpose: Performing lobe-based quantitative analysis of the lung in computed tomography (CT) scans can assist in efforts to better characterize complex diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While airways and vessels can help to indicate the location of lobe boundaries, segmentations of these structures are not always available, so methods to define the lobes in the absence of these structures are desirable. Methods: The authors present a fully automatic lung lobe segmentation algorithm that is effective in volumetric inspiratory and expiratory computed tomography (CT) datasets. The authors rely on ridge surface image features indicating fissure locations and a novel approach to modeling shape variation in the surfaces defining the lobe boundaries. The authors employ a particle system that efficiently samples ridge surfaces in the image domain and provides a set of candidate fissure locations based on the Hessian matrix. Following this, lobe boundary shape models generated from principal component analysis (PCA) are fit to the particles data to discriminate between fissure and nonfissure candidates. The resulting set of particle points are used to fit thin plate spline (TPS) interpolating surfaces to form the final boundaries between the lung lobes. Results: The authors tested algorithm performance on 50 inspiratory and 50 expiratory CT scans taken from the COPDGene study. Results indicate that the authors' algorithm performs comparably to pulmonologist-generated lung lobe segmentations and can produce good results in cases with accessory fissures, incomplete fissures, advanced emphysema, and low dose acquisition protocols. Dice scores indicate that only 29 out of 500 (5.85%) lobes showed Dice scores lower than 0.9. Two different approaches for evaluating lobe boundary surface discrepancies were applied and indicate that algorithm boundary identification is most accurate in the vicinity of fissures detectable on CT. Conclusions: The proposed algorithm is effective for lung lobe segmentation in absence of auxiliary structures such as vessels and airways. The most challenging cases are those with mostly incomplete, absent, or near-absent fissures and in cases with poorly revealed fissures due to high image noise. However, the authors observe good performance even in the majority of these cases.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Anomaly detection with flow-based fast calorimeter simulators

Recently, several normalizing flow-based deep generative models have been proposed to accelerate the simulation of calorimeter showers. Using caloflow as an example, we show that these models can simultaneously perform unsupervised anomaly detection with no additional training cost. As a demonstration, we consider electromagnetic showers initiated by one (background) or multiple (signal) photons. The caloflow model is designed to generate single-photon showers, but it also provides access to the shower likelihood. We use this likelihood as an anomaly score and study the showers tagged as being unlikely. As expected, the tagger struggles when the signal photons are nearly collinear but is otherwise effective. This approach is complementary to a supervised classifier trained on only specific signal models using the same low-level calorimeter inputs. While the supervised classifier is also highly effective at unseen signal models, the unsupervised method is more sensitive in certain regions, and, thus, we expect that the ultimate performance will require a combination of these approaches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗