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At least 325 records · Page 18

Prognostics of Power MOSFET

This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

Celaya, Jose Ramon↗

Creation and testing of an artificial neural network based carbonate detector for Mars rovers

We have developed an artificial neural network (ANN) based carbonate detector capable of running on current and future rover hardware. The detector can identify calcite in visible/NIR (350-2500 nm) spectra of both laboratory specimens covered by ferric dust and rocks in Mars analogue field environments. The ANN was trained using the Backpropagation algorithm with sigmoid activation neurons. For the training dataset, we chose nine carbonate and eight non-carbonate representative mineral spectra from the USGS spectral library. Using these spectra as seeds, we generated 10,000 variants with up to 2% Gaussian noise in each reflectance measurement. We cross-validated several ANN architectures, training on 9,900 spectra and testing on the remaining 100. The best performing ANN correctly detected, with perfect accuracy, the presence (or absence) of carbonate in spectral data taken on field samples from the Mojave desert and clean, pure marbles from CT. Sensitivity experiments with JSC Mars-1 simulant dust suggest the carbonate detector would perform well in aeolian Martian environments.

neural networks↗

Uncertainty Propagation in Pre-Flight Prediction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Separation Violation

Current forecasts on the future of aeronautics suggest an in- creasing number of unmanned aerial vehicles entering the low- altitude airspace in the next decades (FAA, 2018; Kopardekar et al., 2016). Small vehicles for package delivery as well as larger vehicles for urban air mobility will change the airspace drastically, increasing density of operations both in time, i.e. high number of take-off and landings per unit time, and in space, operating in dense urban environment. This scenario poses challenges to the current approach to air traffic control, and large efforts from academia, industry and regulatory bodies are dedicated to the development of new traffic management strategies that leverage higher computing and simulating capabilities available today. In this paper, we propose a simple look-ahead approach to predict potential minimum separation violations at the strategic level, that is before vehicles start flying, depending on the predefined 4D trajectories and uncertainty affecting the wind acting along those routes. The wind field is extracted from the NOAA North America Mesoscale Forecast System and interpolated using Gaussian process regression, while uncertainty affecting the expected cruise airspeed is propagated through error intervals. The approach allows the prediction of aircraft separation as a function of time, highlighting potential safety violations that would go undetected if uncertainty affecting the expected 4D trajectories is not considered. The paper will also discuss issues related to accuracy and scalability of the approach to multiple vehicle operations.

Trajectory Prediction↗

VTOL controls for shipboard landing

The problem of landing a VTOL aircraft on a small ship in rough seas using an automatic controller is examined. The controller design uses the linear quadratic Gaussian results of modern control theory. Linear time invariant dynamic models are developed for the aircraft, ship, and wave motions. A hover controller commands the aircraft to track position and orientation of the ship deck using only low levels of control power. Commands for this task are generated by the solution of the steady state linear quadratic gaussian regulator problem. Analytical performance and control requirement tradeoffs are obtained. A landing controller commands the aircraft from stationary hover along a smooth, low control effort trajectory, to a touchdown on a predicted crest of ship motion. The design problem is formulated and solved as an approximate finite-time linear quadratic stochastic regulator. Performance and control results are found by Monte Carlo simulations.

Mcmuldroch, C. G.↗

Time-Dependent Satellite Explosion Probabilities for Long-Term Orbital Debris Environment Modeling

On-orbit accidental explosions are a significant contributor to the growth of the orbital debris population. Certain types of satellites have been seen to exhibit different behaviors and timelines of explosions. Recent assessments of on-orbit explosions for three categories of satellites – Russian Sistema Obespecheniya Zapuska (SOZ, Proton 4th stage attitude and ullage motors) units, spacecraft, and rocket bodies – suggest that on-orbit explosions can be modeled using a continuous, time-dependent probability of explosion. This paper discusses the methodology for developing a time-dependent probability of explosion as a function of the satellite’s orbital lifetime based on historical explosions. The SOZ units are found to be best modeled by a modified Gaussian probability distribution, with the peak probability of explosion occurring around 10.4 years on-orbit. Spacecraft and rocket bodies both exhibit exponentially decaying explosion probabilities, with rocket bodies showing fast-, medium-, and slow-time modes of decay. Total cumulative probabilities of explosion are approximately 57% for SOZ units, 4% for spacecraft, and 2% for rocket bodies. Examples of implementation in a simulation of the orbital debris environment using NASA's long-term evolutionary model are given, showing the overall explosion behavior over two centuries is significantly different from that using a previously implemented constant-probability type-dependent explosion rate model and provides a better representation of the historical explosion record.

Alyssa P Manis↗

Vortex breakdown simulation

In this paper, steady, axisymmetric inviscid, and viscous (laminar) swirling flows representing vortex breakdown phenomena are simulated using a stream function-vorticity-circulation formulation and two numerical methods. The first is based on an inverse iteration, where a norm of the solution is prescribed and the swirling parameter is calculated as a part of the output. The second is based on direct Newton iterations, where the linearized equations, for all the unknowns, are solved simultaneously by an efficient banded Gaussian elimination procedure. Several numerical solutions for inviscid and viscous flows are demonstrated, followed by a discussion of the results. Some improvements on previous work have been achieved: first order upwind differences are replaced by second order schemes, line relaxation procedure (with linear convergence rate) is replaced by Newton's iterations (which converge quadratically), and Reynolds numbers are extended from 200 up to 1000.

Hafez, M.↗

Plasma expansion characteristics of ionized clouds in the ionosphere - Macroscopic formulation

A macroscopic plasma expansion model, based on a numerical solution of the type-dependent nonlinear coupled continuity and momentum equations for background O(+) ions and several released ion species, was used to examine plasma expansion characteristics of ionized clouds in the ionosphere. Information is obtained on Ba(+), Li(+), and Ba(+) - Li(+) clouds; different cloud sizes (Gaussian half widths of 0.1, 0.5, and 1 km); cloud/background ion density ratios covering two orders of magnitude; electron/ion temperature ratios of 1, 5, and 10; and several cloud-background relative velocities along B (0, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 km/sec). The macroscopic expansion features obtained were found to be in general agreement with those obtained from the small-scale numerical simulations.

Schunk, R. W.↗

The utility of calibration - Landsat 4 TM simulator data, Patrick Draw, Wyoming

A novel calibration approach was used for Landsat 4 TM simulator data acquired at the Patrick Draw test site, Wyoming, where the 'true' reflectance spectrum for any pixel area cannot be practically determined because of mixing of spectral components. An empirically derived function was first applied to the scanner data to remove the brightness gradient due to directional scattering and surface geometry. Based on the observation that the distribution of scanner brightness values (DN) were Gaussian, the minimum, mean, and maximum DN for each band were extracted and plotted versus the similar percent reflectance values determined from a large representative collection of field reflectance data for the area. These plots provided linear transformations relating DN value to reflectance in each band.

Lang, H. R.↗

Simulating and Detecting Radiation-Induced Errors for Onboard Machine Learning

Spacecraft processors and memory are subjected to high radiation doses and therefore employ radiation-hardened components. However, these components are orders of magnitude more expensive than typical desktop components, and they lag years behind in terms of speed and size. We have integrated algorithm-based fault tolerance (ABFT) methods into onboard data analysis algorithms to detect radiation-induced errors, which ultimately may permit the use of spacecraft memory that need not be fully hardened, reducing cost and increasing capability at the same time. We have also developed a lightweight software radiation simulator, BITFLIPS, that permits evaluation of error detection strategies in a controlled fashion, including the specification of the radiation rate and selective exposure of individual data structures. Using BITFLIPS, we evaluated our error detection methods when using a support vector machine to analyze data collected by the Mars Odyssey spacecraft. We found ABFT error detection for matrix multiplication is very successful, while error detection for Gaussian kernel computation still has room for improvement.

data analysis↗

Optimal estimation and attitude control of a solar electric propulsion spacecraft

Established procedures of linear, quadratic, Gaussian optimal estimation and control are developed and interpreted for their application to the problem of attitude control of spacecraft with dynamically significant elastic appendages. Results are presented both in general terms and for specific application to a solar electric spacecraft. Comparisons are made between alternative coordinate systems, and a realistic range of design parameters is considered. For single axis control, system evaluation is accomplished by simulation of a fifteenth-order spacecraft plant with alternative second-order, fourth-order, and sixth-order constant gain estimators. Results point out the importance of modeling errors.

Larson, V.↗

Stochastic Modeling and Generation of Partially Polarized or Partially Coherent Electromagnetic Waves

Many new Earth remote-sensing instruments are embracing both the advantages and added complexity that result from interferometric or fully polarimetric operation. To increase instrument understanding and functionality a model of the signals these instruments measure is presented. A stochastic model is used as it recognizes the non-deterministic nature of any real-world measurements while also providing a tractable mathematical framework. A stationary, Gaussian-distributed model structure is proposed. Temporal and spectral correlation measures provide a statistical description of the physical properties of coherence and polarization-state. From this relationship the model is mathematically defined. The model is shown to be unique for any set of physical parameters. A method of realizing the model (necessary for applications such as synthetic calibration-signal generation) is given and computer simulation results are presented. The signals are constructed using the output of a multi-input multi-output linear filter system, driven with white noise.

Davis, Brynmor↗

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗

A quantitative approach to the topology of large-scale structure

A quantitative measure of the topology of large-scale structure: the genus of density contours in a smoothed density distribution, is described and applied. For random phase (Gaussian) density fields, the mean genus per unit volume exhibits a universal dependence on threshold density, with a normalizing factor that can be calculated from the power spectrum. If large-scale structure formed from the gravitational instability of small-amplitude density fluctuations, the topology observed today on suitable scales should follow the topology in the initial conditions. The technique is illustrated by applying it to simulations of galaxy clustering in a flat universe dominated by cold dark matter. The technique is also applied to a volume-limited sample of the CfA redshift survey and to a model in which galaxies reside on the surfaces of polyhedral 'bubbles'. The topology of the evolved mass distribution and 'biased' galaxy distribution in the cold dark matter models closely matches the topology of the density fluctuations in the initial conditions. The topology of the observational sample is consistent with the random phase, cold dark matter model.

Gott, J. Richard, III↗

Heterodyne efficiency for a coherent laser radar with diffuse or aerosol targets

The performance of a Coherent Laser Radar is determined by the statistics of the coherent Doppler signal. The heterodyne efficiency is an excellent indication of performance because it is an absolute measure of beam alignment and is independent of the transmitter power, the target backscatter coefficient, the atmospheric attenuation, and the detector quantum efficiency and gain. The theoretical calculation of heterodyne efficiency for an optimal monostatic lidar with a circular aperture and Gaussian transmit laser is presented including beam misalignment in the far-field and near-field regimes. The statistical behavior of estimates of the heterodyne efficiency using a calibration hard target are considered. For space based applications, a biased estimate of heterodyne efficiency is proposed that removes the variability due to the random surface return but retains the sensitivity to misalignment. Physical insight is provided by simulation of the fields on the detector surface. The required detector calibration is also discussed.

Frehlich, R. G.↗

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗

A linear quadratic Gaussian with loop transfer recovery proximity operations autopilot for spacecraft

An automatic control scheme for spacecraft proximity operations is presented. The controller is capable of holding the vehicle at a prescribed location relative to a target, or maneuvering it to a different relative position using straight line-of-sight translations. The autopilot uses a feedforward loop to initiate and terminate maneuvers, and for operations at nonequilibrium set-points. A multivariate feedback loop facilitates precise position and velocity control in the presence of sensor noise. The feedback loop is formulated using the Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) with Loop Transfer Recovery (LTR) design procedure. Linear models of spacecraft dynamics, adapted from Clohessey-Wiltshire Equations, are augmented and loop shaping techniques are applied to design a target feedback loop. The loop transfer recovery procedure is used to recover the frequency domain properties of the target feedback loop. The resulting compensator is integrated into an autopilot which is tested in a high fidelity Space Shuttle Simulator. The autopilot performance is evaluated for a variety of proximity operations tasks envisioned for future Shuttle flights.

Chen, George T.↗

Analyses of Cometary Silicate Crystals: DDA Spectral Modeling of Forsterite

Comets are the Solar System's deep freezers of gases, ices, and particulates that were present in the outer protoplanetary disk. Where comet nuclei accreted was so cold that CO ice (approximately 50K) and other supervolatile ices like ethane (C2H2) were preserved. However, comets also accreted high temperature minerals: silicate crystals that either condensed (greater than or equal to 1400 K) or that were annealed from amorphous (glassy) silicates (greater than 850-1000 K). By their rarity in the interstellar medium, cometary crystalline silicates are thought to be grains that formed in the inner disk and were then radially transported out to the cold and ice-rich regimes near Neptune. The questions that comets can potentially address are: How fast, how far, and over what duration were crystals that formed in the inner disk transported out to the comet-forming region(s)? In comets, the mass fractions of silicates that are crystalline, f_cryst, translate to benchmarks for protoplanetary disk radial transport models. The infamous comet Hale-Bopp has crystalline fractions of over 55%. The values for cometary crystalline mass fractions, however, are derived assuming that the mineralogy assessed for the submicron to micron-sized portion of the size distribution represents the compositional makeup of all larger grains in the coma. Models for fitting cometary SEDs make this assumption because models can only fit the observed features with submicron to micron-sized discrete crystals. On the other hand, larger (0.1-100 micrometer radii) porous grains composed of amorphous silicates and amorphous carbon can be easily computed with mixed medium theory wherein vacuum mixed into a spherical particle mimics a porous aggregate. If crystalline silicates are mixed in, the models completely fail to match the observations. Moreover, models for a size distribution of discrete crystalline forsterite grains commonly employs the CDE computational method for ellipsoidal platelets (c:a:b=8.14x8.14xl in shape with geometrical factors of x:y:z=1:1:10, Fabian et al. 2001; Harker et al. 2007). Alternatively, models for forsterite employ statistical methods like the Distribution of Hollow Spheres (Min et al. 2008; Oliveira et al. 2011) or Gaussian Random Spheres (GRS) or RGF (Gielen et al. 200S). Pancakes, hollow spheres, or GRS shapes similar to wheat sheaf crystal habit (e.g., Volten et al. 2001; Veihelmann et al. 2006), however, do not have the sharp edges, flat faces, and vertices seen in images of cometary crystals in interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) or in Stardust samples. Cometary forsterite crystals often have equant or tabular crystal habit (J. Bradley). To simulate cometary crystals, we have computed absorption efficiencies of forsterite using the Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) DDSCAT code on NAS supercomputers. We compute thermal models that employ a size distribution of discrete irregularly shaped forsterite crystals (nonspherical shapes with faces and vertices) to explore how crystal shape affects the shape and wavelength positions of the forsterite spectral features and to explore whether cometary crystal shapes support either condensation or annealing scenarios (Lindsay et al. 2012a, b). We find forsterite crystal shapes that best-fit comet Hale-Bopp are tetrahedron, bricks or brick platelets, essentially equant or tabular (Lindsay et al. 2012a,b), commensurate with high temperature condensation experiments (Kobatake et al. 2008). We also have computed porous aggregates with crystal monomers and find that the crystal resonances are amplified. i.e., the crystalline fraction is lower in the aggregate than is derived by fitting a linear mix of spectral features from discrete subcomponents, and the crystal resonances 'appear' to be from larger crystals (Wooden et al. 2012). These results may indicate that the crystalline mass fraction in comets with comae dominated by aggregates may be lower than deduced by popular methods that only emoy ensembles of discrete crystals.

Wooden, Diane↗

Equivalent linearization for fatigue life estimates of a nonlinear structure

An adaptation of the method of equivalent linearization is developed in order to estimate the fatigue life of a nonlinear structure excited by Gaussian white noise. While conventional equivalent linearization has been successfully applied to approximate the mean square responses of the variety of complex nonlinear systems, it has not been possible to apply the method for fatigue predictions. This limitation results from the assumption that the probability density of the response of the nonlinear system is Gaussian, which is not generally true. In the present effort, a modification of equivalent linearization, developed by the author, is employed which has been shown in recent studies to provide a much more accurate description of the random response of a nonlinear structure than provided by conventional equivalent linearization. A method is presented for estimating fatigue life based on this approach and results are compared with those obtained using both numerical simulation and the classical method. The fatigue life is estimated for a nonlinear plate vibrating in a single resonant mode with random white noise excitation. Excellent agreement is found between all three methods. These results indicate that equivalent linearization may be extended to predict the fatigue life of more complex nonlinear systems than can be analyzed at present.

Miles, R. N.↗