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At least 325 records · Page 18

Wind Fields in Category 1–3 Tropical Cyclones Are Not Fully Represented in Wind Turbine Design Standards

Abstract Offshore wind energy deployment in the U.S. is expected to increase in the years to come, with proposed wind farm sites located in regions with high risk for tropical cyclones. Yet, the wind turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission for extreme events may not account for wind field characteristics unique to tropical cyclones. To evaluate if current design standards capture the extreme conditions of these storms, we perform idealized large‐eddy simulations of three tropical cyclones (one Category 1, one Category 2, and one Category 3 storms) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Wind conditions near the eyewall of Cat‐1, Cat‐2, and Cat‐3 storms can exceed current design standards for offshore wind turbines. Winds at 90 m can be faster than outlined in the design criteria for Class I and Class T turbines for 50‐year recurrence periods. Wind speed shear across the turbine rotor layer is also larger than assumed in design specifications. Moreover, vertical variations in wind direction across the turbine rotor layer are large for tropical cyclones of all intensity levels, suggesting design standards should include veer, which can amplify loads in wind turbines. The existence of hurricane wind field characteristics that are not represented in design standards does not imply that damage or failure will certainly occur. Engineering safety factors incorporated in the design of the turbine's blades and structural components may prevent damage from occurring.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Characterization of Pinhole Collimators for High-Resolution Gamma Imaging of Irradiated Fuel

Post-irradiation examination (PIE) of nuclear fuels requires imaging tools capable of resolving isotopic and spatial features with high throughput. This project contributes to a proof-of-concept effort aimed at advancing gamma emission tomography (GET) by evaluating novel fine-aperture pinhole collimators. Two Rose’s metal collimators, 100 µm (20° acceptance angle) and 350 µm (30° acceptance angle), were prototyped and characterized for their effectiveness in transporting gamma rays through the pinhole aperture. To support data collection, a Python-based data acquisition system was developed to coordinate a rotation stage, linear stage, and CZT detector, reducing latency in high-rate gamma event logging to one second per acquisition. Queue-based file writing enabled seamless real-time data capture for count rates up to 35,000 counts per second (cps). List-mode parsing algorithms were implemented to differentiate single and simultaneous gamma interactions for future tomographic reconstruction. Detector response was evaluated in both spectroscopy and list mode acquisition methods across varying source distances to confirm absolute and collimator efficiencies. Preliminary efficiency figures suggest effective collimation of gamma-rays with energies below 700 keV, with ~4% residual intensity through the aperture for Cs-137. The impact of collimator geometry on image quality is currently being evaluated. This groundwork supports the ongoing development of a sub mm resolution cone-beam CT system for imaging fuel phantoms, an essential step toward improving GET efficiency and accelerating nuclear fuel qualification efforts.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Analysis of Microseismicity and Reactivated Fault Size to Assess the Potential for Felt Events by CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

The results of monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection at the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project (IBDP) and the companion Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Sources (IL-ICCS) project—have shown that reservoir response to fluid pressure changes can vary significantly at different injection locations within the same reservoir. Predrill reservoir characterization is important to identify potentially seismogenic faults. However, interpretations of newly reprocessed 3D seismic reflection data illustrate the challenges related to their identification in a region dominated by faulting with small vertical offsets. Faults interpreted in the 3D seismic volume range from ~300 to 1200 m wide and are in the same size range as faults that could have been the source of historical events up to Mw 2.7 in central Illinois. The array of monitoring sensors that was installed for the IBDP continues to collect data, as injection operates in IL-ICCS, the second injection well. CO 2 injection rates for the IL-ICCS well are on average 1.7 times the rates injected in the IBDP well, but a significantly reduced rate of induced seismicity is observed. This article presents results of passive seismic monitoring for the duration of the project to date, integrating active and passive seismic data to develop a new interpretation of the subsurface structure at the Decatur site that explicitly identifies pathways for fluid flow into the basement leading to induced seismicity, and provides a geological explanation for the sharp reduction of induced seismicity during injection at higher rates into the second well. The use of seismic moment to estimate the length of seismogenic slip planes in the local subsurface suggests that faults large enough to produce felt seismicity are unlikely to be present at or near the Decatur site.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Intelligently Partitioned Phasor-EMT Hybrid Simulations of Large-Scale, High-IBR Power Systems

As the penetration level of power electronics-interfaced renewables such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind has surged in modern electric grids, new operational risks caused by the dynamics of those inverter-based resources (IBRs) are emerging in parallel. Lessons learned from various grid events include that the impact of IBRs on system-level grid stability will become prominent along with the increase of renewables and that the short-timescale dynamic impacts of IBRs on grid stability are not fully captured by current commercial dynamic simulation tools [1] [2]. For example, IBRs can be controlled to mitigate those destabilizing interactions, but conventional phasor-domain tools (e.g. PSS/E, PSLF) often cannot capture that; likewise, the existing electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tools (e.g. PSCAD, EMTP) can simulate detailed IBR controls, but for large power systems with many IBRs, slow simulation speeds severely impede the ability to study dynamic events [3] [4]. Massively paralleling simulations using high-performance computing (HPC) can help address this, especially now that cloud-based HPC capability is widely available, but today s EMT tools are not HPC-compatible, and parallelization of dynamic simulation solvers is not trivial because each region can dynamically affect the others. Thus, dynamic simulation of grids with very large numbers of IBRs potentially poses a barrier to the ongoing energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Synchro-Waveform-Based Event Identification Using Multi-Task Time-Frequency Transform Networks

Influenced by the transient dynamics and reduced inertia characteristics of high-penetration renewable energy systems, power system events frequently exhibit distinct characteristics such as high-frequency components including wide-band oscillations and hyper-harmonics. This makes standard systems face challenges including significant latency and reduced accuracy due to limited data resolution. However, current methods face significant limitations, including insufficient pattern capture ability, low noise immunity, limited feature learning, and restricted localization capabilities, thereby hindering real-time performance. To tackle this issue, this paper proposed a novel synchro-waveform-based event identification approach via a Multi-task Time-frequency Transform Network (MTTNet). Initially, a Time-frequency Transform Block (TTB) is developed to extract both local and global information. The TTB leverages both Fourier and S-transforms to derive comprehensive time-frequency information from synchro-waveforms. Subsequently, a multi-task learning strategy is employed to identify the type and distinguish localization of events. Integrating the TTB and multi-task learning, the MTTNet is designed for synchro-waveform-based event identification, incorporating an adaptive weighting strategy and simplified computation for the S-transform. Two different datasets, comprising simulated and actual synchro-waveforms, are collected from the IEEE 123 bus system and a real-world high-penetration renewable energy system using a universal grid analyzer. Extensive experiments on various conditions are carried out. In conclusion, results demonstrated that the MTTNet consistently surpasses both basic and advanced baselines, with maximum improvements of 13.24% and 9.86%, respectively, while reducing the calculation burden by 15-19 times to achieve real-time event identification.

Event identification↗

Comparing event generator predictions and ab-initio calculations of $\nu$-$^{12}$C neutral current quasi-elastic scattering at 1 GeV

The measurement of neutrino oscillations and exotic physics searches are important parts of the physics program in the near future, with new state-of-the-art experiments planned within the next decade. Future and modern experiments in these fields will make use of nuclear targets. Event Generators (EGs) are software used in the analysis of neutrino oscillation experiments. EGs use to predict kinematic observables for a range of neutrino energies. These simulations may lack physics captured by more rigorous theoretical calculations. This work compares EG performance to nuclear theory calculations by comparing observables generated in the two frameworks. We provide a common set of definitions between theory and experiment and assess the physics contained in EG simulations. Neutral current quasi-elastic (NCQE) scattering events for neutrinos and anti-neutrinos on a $^{12}$C target are simulated with a specific EG, NEUT, used by the T2K experiment for its analysis. The simulated cross sections are compared to analytic calculations from nuclear theory within the factorization scheme. We compare the NEUT implementation of two different models on nuclear spectral functions: the Relativistic Fermi Gas (RFG) and the correlated basis spectral function (CBF) to analytic calculations of the same models in the factorization scheme. For both nuclear physics models, we compare the appearance of features in the distributions relevant to experimental analyses. Qualitatively, the shape of the simulated distribution is similar to the one obtained through theory calculations; however, there are some discrepancies between the theory calculations and the NEUT simulation. While the EG simulations and analytic calculations with the same model of nuclear dynamics show similar overall features, there are still differences between the two.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A building performance-based approach to determining energy resilience for grocery stores in the event of a power outage

Evaluating progress toward a built environment that is best equipped to serve communities during a regional power outage will require metrics that capture the energy resilience of the unique buildings and businesses most crucial to the well-being of those nearby. We focused on grocery stores as key buildings for which access, and thus energy resilience, is critical during a disaster when power is unavailable. We evaluated the energy resilience of these buildings by offering and testing building-scale metrics that assess business continuity potential during a power outage. Metrics proposed in this study are calculated based on the unique power loads characteristic to grocery stores, primarily refrigeration and maintaining safe indoor environmental conditions. Building simulations based on varying levels of backup power were carried out against occupant safety and comfort parameters to apply these metrics, with additional criteria imposed on grocery stores to capture the inventory and sales loss from food spoilage resulting from a lack of refrigeration power. Findings from this study demonstrate the feasibility of our proposed metrics and methodology to serve as a low-data burden means for stakeholders to evaluate the energy resilience of grocery stores, with greater implications in helping to understand the impact on community-scale energy resilience.

Siegel, Lino Sanchez↗

Modeling the Simultaneous Dropout of Energetic Electrons and Protons by Magnetopause Shadowing

Abstract Magnetopause shadowing (MPS) effect could drive a concurrent dropout of radiation belt electrons and ring current protons. However, its relative role in the dropout of both plasma populations has not been well quantified. In this work, we study the simultaneous dropout of MeV electrons and 100s keV protons during an intense geomagnetic storm in May 2017. A radial diffusion model with an event‐specific last closed drift shell is used to simulate the MPS loss of both populations. The model well captures the fast shadowing loss of both populations at L * > 4.6, while the loss at L * < 4.6, possibly due to the electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering, is not captured. The observed butterfly pitch angle distributions of electron fluxes in the initial loss phase are well reproduced by the model. The initial proton losses at low pitch angles are underestimated, potentially also contributed by other mechanisms such as field line curvature scattering.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The matrix product approximation for the dynamic cavity method

Stochastic dynamics of classical degrees of freedom, defined on vertices of locally tree-like graphs, can be studied in the framework of the dynamic cavity method which is exact for tree graphs. Such models correspond for example to spin-glass systems, Boolean networks, neural networks, and other technical, biological, and social networks. The central objects in the cavity method are edge messages—conditional probabilities of two vertex variable trajectories. In this paper, we discuss a rather pedagogical derivation for the dynamic cavity method, give a detailed account of the novel matrix product edge message (MPEM) algorithm for the solution of the dynamic cavity equation as introduced, and present optimizations and extensions. Matrix product approximations of the edge messages are constructed recursively in an iteration over time. Computation costs and precision can be tuned by controlling the matrix dimensions of the MPEM in truncations. Without truncations, the dynamics is exact. Data for Glauber–Ising dynamics shows a linear growth of computation costs in time. In contrast to Monte Carlo simulations, the approach has a much better error scaling. Hence, it gives for example access to low probability events and decaying observables like temporal correlations. Here, we discuss optimized truncation schemes and an extension that allows to capture models which have a continuum time limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Nonlinear behavior of urban flood peaks in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region

Urbanization, i.e., increasing urban development areas in a watershed, is well known as a major cause of increasing flood magnitudes. This study analyzes the observed flood peaks at 262 watersheds in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region with varying levels of urban development and free from reservoir impacts. Our analysis reveals an interesting, V-shaped nonlinear behavior: flood peaks first decrease and then increase with increasing percentage of urban development area at the watershed scale (PDAW), with the shift occurring at a PDAW threshold of around 10%. Regression analyses suggest that the V-shaped pattern primarily results from complex interactions among climate conditions (e.g., storm-event rainfall) and landscape properties (e.g., elevation, distance to the coast). A neural network model was then developed to capture such interactions, satisfactorily reproducing the V-shaped pattern with an R-squared value of 0.58, RMSE of 6.72 mm/day, and NSE of 0.55. These findings highlight the need to account for nonlinear dynamics in flood prediction and management in the coastal environment.

flood peaks↗

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Kilonova Light Curves: Dependence on Nuclear Inputs

The mergers of binary neutron stars, as well as black hole–neutron star systems, are expected to produce an electromagnetic counterpart that can be analyzed to infer the element synthesis that occurred in these events. We investigate one source of uncertainties pertinent to lanthanide-rich outflows: the nuclear inputs to rapid neutron capture nucleosynthesis calculations. We begin by examining 32 different combinations of nuclear inputs: eight mass models, two types of spontaneous fission rates, and two types of fission daughter product distributions. We find that such nuclear physics uncertainties typically generate at least one order of magnitude uncertainty in key quantities such as the nuclear heating (one and a half orders of magnitude at 1 day post-merger), the bolometric luminosity (one order of magnitude at 5 days post-merger), and the inferred mass of material from the bolometric luminosity (factor of 8 when considering the 8–10 day region). Since particular nuclear processes are critical for determining the electromagnetic signal, we provide tables of key nuclei undergoing β-decay, α-decay, and spontaneous fission important for heating at different times, identifying decays that are common among the many nuclear input combinations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM 2.5 , often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m 2 g –1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (ƒ(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm –3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm –3 ) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗

High Time Resolution Modelled and Measured New Particle Formation Rates During the 2023 Pittsburgh, PA Campaign

Particle size distributions are used to calculate nucleation rates during new particle formation (NPF). However, the low time resolution and poor sensitivity of instruments deployed to observe particle size distributions can lead to inaccurate estimates of nucleation rates. We calculated nucleation rates in Pittsburgh, PA from particle size distributions measured with the new high time resolution Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM) and from gas precursor concentrations measured with a chemical ionization mass spectrometer. The CPC FARM nucleation rates were calculated by examining the appearance rate of particles in the smallest size bin at 1.6 nm. The nucleation rate of 1.6 nm determined every second resulted in positive and negative rates, indicating the influence of inhomogeneous mixing and advection of precursor gases and clusters. These effects are not currently considered when estimating nucleation rates from measurements. The nucleation rates from the CPC FARM were compared to the nucleation rates determined from a transient acid‐base reaction model using measured sulfuric acid concentration, strong base concentrations, and CPC detection efficiencies. The transient form of the model allowed the advection of heterogeneously mixed precursors to influence the nucleation rate. Good agreement between particle and gas‐based nucleation rates is observed during sulfuric acid‐driven NPF events. This study demonstrates that high time resolution measurements of short‐lived and rapidly formed particles are needed to accurately capture nucleation rates, which are likely influenced by advection of nucleation precursors and clusters in heterogeneous environments such as urban areas.

Cheng, D. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (↗

Performance of a coarsely pixelated LAPPD photosensor for the SoLID gas Cherenkov detectors

The SoLID spectrometer's gas Cherenkov counters require photosensors that operate in a high luminosity and high background environment. The reference design features arrays of 9 or 16 tiled multi-anode photomultipliers (MaPMTs), distributed across 32 sectors, to serve the light-gas and heavy-gas Cherenkov counters, respectively. To assess the viability of a pixelated INCOM Large Area Picosecond Photodetector (LAPPD TM ) as an alternative photosensor to replace MaPMT arrays in either detector, we evaluated its performance under realistic SoLID running conditions in Hall C at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab). The results of this test confirmed that the coarse-pixelated (2.5 × 2.5 cm 2 pixel size) LAPPD is capable of handling the total projected signal and background rates of the three pillar SoLID experiments. The tested photosensor detected Cherenkov signals with the capability of separating single-electron events from pair production events while rejecting background. Although the design was not aimed at ring-imaging Cherenkov detectors, Cherenkov disk images were captured in two different gas radiators. Through a direct comparison with a GEANT4 simulation, we confirmed the experimental performance of the LAPPD.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Modeling the impact of the fuel injection strategy on the combustion and performance characteristics of a heavy-duty GCI engine

Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) is a promising strategy to achieve high thermal efficiency and low emissions with limited modifications to the conventional diesel engine hardware. It is a partially premixed concept, which derives its superiority from higher volatility and longer ignition delay of gasoline-like fuels combined with higher compression ratio typical of diesel engines. Here, the present study investigates the combustion process in a GCI engine operating with different injection strategies using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Simulations are carried out on a single cylinder of a multi cylinder heavy-duty compression ignition engine, which operates at a compression ratio of 17:1 and an engine speed of 1038 rev/min. Two different injection strategies viz., late injection (LI), and early pilot injection (EP) are investigated to understand their impact on combustion and performance of the engine. Renormalized group (RNG) k-ε model is used to describe in-cylinder turbulence and KH RT model is used to simulate the fuel spray breakup. The developed CFD methodology is validated against relevant experimental data under a wide range of operating conditions for each injection strategy. The developed CFD methodology was found to capture the engine combustion behavior quite well. Based on the validated CFD model, the differences in the progress of combustion event for the two injection strategies is highlighted. It was found that a larger pilot fuel mass fraction results in a steeper rise in the initial heat release rate which in turn influences the transition to mixing controlled combustion. In line with the experimental data, the study showed that the late pilot injection strategy with three injection pulses, results in higher performance compared to the other conditions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗