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At least 325 records · Page 18

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ocular biological parameters and prevalence of myopia in vocational high school and general high school in China

Significance Higher prevalence of myopia is possibly associated with more extended schooling schedules. Therefore, adjustments to high school curricula may aid in reducing the prevalence of myopia among adolescents. Purpose To investigate the prevalence of myopia among 15- to 18-year-old adolescents in Tianjin, China, and to evaluate the impact of different educational schedules on the prevalence of myopia among high school students. Methods This is a school-based epidemiological study with a cross-sectional design. Ocular biological parameters and noncycloplegic photorefraction were examined using optical biometry devices and photoscreener devices. Each student’s spherical equivalent (SE) and ocular biometry were recorded, and the prevalence of myopia was calculated. Results A total of 2,867 participants (1,519 males and 1,348 females) were tested for non-cycloplegic refraction, axial length (AL), central corneal thickness (CCT), anterior chamber depth (ACD) and lens thickness (LT). In this research, the overall prevalence of myopia was 81.6%, with high myopia accounting for 11.8%. Myopia prevalence was substantially higher in general high schools than in vocational high schools, with 86.1 and 70.1%, respectively. There were no significant differences in the prevalence of myopia ( p = 0.744) or high myopia ( p = 0.851) across the three vocational school years. In the general high school, however, there was an increase of 4.6% ( p < 0.05) in myopia prevalence between year 10 and year12. Conclusion Comparing vocational and standard high school students, there are considerable disparities in prevalence of myopia, spherical equivalent, and ocular biological parameters. The prevalence of myopia and high myopia increased among standard high school students, but remained relatively consistent among students in vocational schools.

Liu, Yang↗

Characterization of Senecavirus A Isolates Collected From the Environment of U.S. Sow Slaughter Plants

Vesicular disease caused by Senecavirus A (SVA) is clinically indistinguishable from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and other vesicular diseases of swine. When a vesicle is observed in FMD-free countries, a costly and time-consuming foreign animal disease investigation (FADI) is performed to rule out FMD. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of FADIs and SVA positive samples at slaughter plants in the U.S. The objectives of this investigation were to: (1) describe the environmental burden of SVA in sow slaughter plants; (2) determine whether there was a correlation between PCR diagnostics, virus isolation (VI), and swine bioassay results; and (3) phylogenetically characterize the genetic diversity of contemporary SVA isolates. Environmental swabs were collected from three sow slaughter plants (Plants 1-3) and one market-weight slaughter plant (Plant 4) between June to December 2020. Of the 426 samples taken from Plants 1-3, 304 samples were PCR positive and 107 were VI positive. There was no detection of SVA by PCR or VI at Plant 4. SVA positive samples were most frequently found in the summer (78.3% June-September, vs. 59.4% October-December), with a peak at 85% in August. Eighteen PCR positive environmental samples with a range of C t values were selected for a swine bioassay: a single sample infected piglets ( n = 2). A random subset of the PCR positive samples was sequenced; and phylogenetic analysis demonstrated co-circulation and divergence of two genetically distinct groups of SVA. These data demonstrate that SVA was frequently found in the environment of sow slaughter plants, but environmental persistence and diagnostic detection was not indicative of whether a sampled was infectious to swine. Consequently, a more detailed understanding of the epidemiology of SVA and its environmental persistence in the marketing chain is necessary to reduce the number of FADIs and aide in the development of control measures to reduce the spread of SVA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Use of Tracer Elements for Estimating Community Exposure to Marcellus Shale Development Operations

Since 2009, unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) has significantly increased in Appalachia’s Marcellus Shale formation. Elevations of fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), have been documented in areas surrounding drilling operations during well stimulation. Furthermore, many communities are experiencing increased industrial activities and probable UNGD air pollutant exposures. Recent studies have associated UNGD emissions with health effects based on distances from well pads. In this study, PM2.5 filter samples were collected on an active gas well pad in Morgantown, West Virginia, and three locations downwind during hydraulic stimulation. Fine particulate samples were analyzed for major and trace elements. An experimental source identification model was developed to determine which elements appeared to be traceable downwind of the UNGD site and whether these elements corresponded to PM2.5 measurements. Results suggest that 1) magnesium may be useful for detecting the reach of UNGD point source emissions, 2) complex surface topographic and meteorological conditions in the Marcellus Shale region could be modeled and confounding sources discounted, and 3) well pad emissions may be measurable at distances of at least 7 km. If shown to be more widely applicable, future tracer studies could enhance epidemiological studies showing health effects of UNGD-associated emissions at ≥15 km.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Imprinting and Reproductive Health: A Toxicological Perspective

This overview discusses the role of imprinting in the development of an organism, and how exposure to environmental chemicals during fetal development leads to the physiological and biochemical changes that can have adverse lifelong effects on the health of the offspring. There has been a recent upsurge in the use of chemical products in everyday life. These chemicals include industrial byproducts, pesticides, dietary supplements, and pharmaceutical products. They mimic the natural estrogens and bind to estradiol receptors. Consequently, they reduce the number of receptors available for ligand binding. This leads to a faulty signaling in the neuroendocrine system during the critical developmental process of ‘imprinting’. Imprinting causes structural and organizational differentiation in male and female reproductive organs, sexual behavior, bone mineral density, and the metabolism of exogenous and endogenous chemical substances. Several studies conducted on animal models and epidemiological studies provide profound evidence that altered imprinting causes various developmental and reproductive abnormalities and other diseases in humans. Altered metabolism can be measured by various endpoints such as the profile of cytochrome P-450 enzymes (CYP450’s), xenobiotic metabolite levels, and DNA adducts. The importance of imprinting in the potentiation or attenuation of toxic chemicals is discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Eucalyptus Wood Smoke Extract Elicits a Dose-Dependent Effect in Brain Endothelial Cells

The frequency, duration, and size of wildfires have been increasing, and the inhalation of wildfire smoke particles poses a significant risk to human health. Epidemiological studies have shown that wildfire smoke exposure is positively associated with cognitive and neurological dysfunctions. However, there is a significant gap in knowledge on how wildfire smoke exposure can affect the blood–brain barrier and cause molecular and cellular changes in the brain. Our study aims to determine the acute effect of smoldering eucalyptus wood smoke extract (WSE) on brain endothelial cells for potential neurotoxicity in vitro. Primary human brain microvascular endothelial cells (HBMEC) and immortalized human brain endothelial cell line (hCMEC/D3) were treated with different doses of WSE for 24 h. WSE treatment resulted in a dose-dependent increase in IL-8 in both HBMEC and hCMEC/D3. RNA-seq analyses showed a dose-dependent upregulation of genes involved in aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) and nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (NRF2) pathways and a decrease in tight junction markers in both HBMEC and hCMEC/D3. When comparing untreated controls, RNA-seq analyses showed that HBMEC have a higher expression of tight junction markers compared to hCMEC/D3. In summary, our study found that 24 h WSE treatment increases IL-8 production dose-dependently and decreases tight junction markers in both HBMEC and hCMEC/D3 that may be mediated through the AhR and NRF2 pathways, and HBMEC could be a better in vitro model for studying the effect of wood smoke extract or particles on brain endothelial cells.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Whole-Genome SNP Analysis Identifies Putative Mycobacterium bovis Transmission Clusters in Livestock and Wildlife in Catalonia, Spain

The high-resolution WGS analyses of MTBC strains have provided useful insight for determining sources of infection for animal tuberculosis. In Spain, tuberculosis in livestock is caused by Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium caprae, where wildlife reservoirs play an important role. We analyzed a set of 125 M. bovis isolates obtained from livestock and wildlife from Catalonia to investigate strain diversity and identify possible sources and/or causes of infection. Whole-genome SNP profiles were used for phylogenetic reconstruction and pairwise SNP distance analysis. Additionally, SNPs were investigated to identify virulence and antimicrobial resistance factors to investigate clade-specific associations. Putative transmission clusters (≤12 SNPs) were identified, and associated epidemiological metadata were used to determine possible explanatory factors for transmission. M. bovis distribution was heterogeneous, with 7 major clades and 21 putative transmission clusters. In order of importance, the explanatory factors associated were proximity and neighborhood, residual infection, livestock-wildlife interaction, shared pasture, and movement. Genes related to lipid transport and metabolism showed the highest number of SNPs. All isolates were pyrazinamide resistant, and five were additionally resistant to isoniazid, but no clade-specific associations could be determined. Our findings highlight the importance of high-resolution molecular surveillance to monitor bovine tuberculosis dynamics in a low-prevalence setting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Phylodynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages B.1.1.7, B.1.1.529 and B.1.617.2 in Nigeria Suggests Divergent Evolutionary Trajectories

Background: The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic were characterized by high transmission rates and mortality, compounded by the emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including Variants of Concern (VOCs). This study investigates the phylodynamic and spatio-temporal trends of VOCs during the peak of the pandemic in Nigeria. Methods: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from three major VOCs circulating in Nigeria, B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and B.1.1.529 (Omicron), were analyzed using tools such as Nextclade, R Studio v 4.2.3, and BEAST X v 10.5.0. The spatial distribution, evolutionary history, viral ancestral introductions, and geographic dispersal patterns were characterized. Results: Three major lineages following WHO nomenclature were identified: Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. The Delta variant exhibited the widest geographic spread, detected in 14 states, while the Alpha variant was the least distributed, identified in only eight states but present across most epidemiological weeks studied. Evolutionary rates varied slightly, with Alpha exhibiting the slowest rate (2.66 × 10 −4 substitutions/site/year). Viral population analyses showed distinct patterns: Omicron sustained elevated population growth over time, while Delta declined after initial expansion. The earliest Times to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were consistent with the earliest outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 globally. Geographic transmission analysis indicated a predominant coastal-to-inland spread for all variants, with Omicron showing the most diffuse dispersal, highlighting commercial routes as significant drivers of viral diffusion. Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Nigeria was characterized by multiple variant introductions and a dominant coastal-to-inland spread, emphasizing that despite lockdown measures, commercial trade routes played a critical role in viral dissemination. These findings provide insights into pandemic control strategies and future outbreak preparedness.

Nigeria↗

Full-Length ASFV B646L Gene Sequencing by Nanopore Offers a Simple and Rapid Approach for Identifying ASFV Genotypes

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, highly hemorrhagic viral disease in domestic pigs and wild boars. The disease is caused by African swine fever virus, a double stranded DNA virus of the Asfarviridae family. ASF can be classified into 25 different genotypes, based on a 478 bp fragment corresponding to the C-terminal sequence of the B646L gene, which is highly conserved among strains and encodes the major capsid protein p72. The C-terminal end of p72 has been used as a PCR target for quick diagnosis of ASF, and its characterization remains the first approach for epidemiological tracking and identification of the origin of ASF in outbreak investigations. Recently, a new classification of ASF, based on the complete sequence of p72, reduced the 25 genotypes into only six genotypes; therefore, it is necessary to have the capability to sequence the full-length B646L gene (p72) in a rapid manner for quick genotype characterization. Here, we evaluate the use of an amplicon approach targeting the whole B646L gene, coupled with nanopore sequencing in a multiplex format using Flongle flow cells, as an easy, low cost, and rapid method for the characterization and genotyping of ASF in real-time.

Virology↗

Impact of Selenium and Vitamin E Deficiency on Zika Virus Pathogenesis and Immune Response in Mice

Micronutrient status is recognized to influence host susceptibility to viral infections, yet its impact on Zika virus (ZIKV) pathogenesis remains incompletely understood. We investigated the effects of dietary selenium and combined selenium plus vitamin E deficiency on ZIKV infection outcomes in a type I interferon α/β receptor knockout (Ifnar1 −/− ) murine model. Mice maintained on deficient diets exhibited significantly lower neutralizing antibody titers and reduced levels of key antiviral cytokines (IFN-γ, TNF-α, IFN-α, IFN-β, IL-12p70, CCL5) compared to controls. Correspondingly, higher viral RNA loads were detected in the brains of double-deficient mice, which also experienced greater weight loss and increased mortality. Deep sequencing revealed no major differences in overall viral genome diversity across diet groups; however, specific mutations, including V330L and D67E in the E gene, and V360I in the NS3 gene, were enriched or detected in nutritionally deficient animals. These findings suggest that antioxidant micronutrient deficiency impairs both humoral and cellular immune responses to ZIKV, potentially facilitating enhanced neuroinvasion. While the functional consequences of the identified mutations warrant further investigation, our results underscore the importance of adequate micronutrient intake for optimal antiviral defense. Further studies are needed to clarify the epidemiological significance of these observations.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Deep Learning Modeling Framework to Capture Mixing Patterns in Reactive-Transport Systems

Prediction and control of chemical mixing are vital for many scientific areas such as subsurface reactive transport, climate modeling, combustion, epidemiology, and pharmacology. Due to the complex nature of mixing in heterogeneous and anisotropic media, the mathematical models related to this phenomenon are not analytically tractable. Numerical simulations often provide a viable route to predict chemical mixing accurately. However, contemporary modeling approaches for mixing cannot utilize available spatial-temporal data to improve the accuracy of the future prediction and can be compute-intensive, especially when the spatial domain is large and for long-term temporal predictions. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we will present in this paper a deep learning (DL) modeling framework applied to predict the progress of chemical mixing under fast bimolecular reactions. This framework uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for capturing spatial patterns and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting temporal variations in mixing. By careful design of the framework—placement of non-negative constraint on the weights of the CNN and the selection of activation function, the framework ensures non-negativity of the chemical species at all spatial points and for all times. Our DL-based framework is fast, accurate, and requires minimal data for training. The time needed to obtain a forecast using the model is a fraction (≈ O(-6)) of the time needed to obtain the result using a high-fidelity simulation. To achieve an error of 10% (measured using the infinity norm) for capturing local-scale mixing features such as interfacial mixing, only 24% to 32% of the sequence data for model training is required. To achieve the same level of accuracy for capturing global-scale mixing features, the sequence data required for model training is 64% to 70% of the total spatial-temporal data. Hence, the proposed approach—a fast and accurate way to forecast long-time spatial-temporal mixing patterns in heterogeneous and anisotropic media—will be a valuable tool for modeling reactive-transport in a wide range of applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Recombinant And Mix-Infection Finder for SARS-CoV-2 sample

The scientific and public health communities responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with sample acquisition and genome sequencing on a scale that eclipsed all prior sequencing efforts. While this can only be characterized as a resounding success story that has cemented the use of genomics for epidemiological investigations for any future infectious disease outbreak, several retrospective studies are cataloging an array of lessons learned and issues that have yet to be addressed in order to realize the full potential of genomics as a routine biosurveillance tool. We have been both developing methods to accurately assess SARS-CoV-2 genomes from complex samples, and analyzing the large volumes of international data, both at the consensus level and the raw sequencing data. During the course of our investigations and similar to other groups, we have examined COVID-19 samples with signatures from multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 and will describe some of our findings during the development of a novel workflow that incorporates detection and reporting of potential co-infection within samples and also highlights any evidence of within-host recombination.

Lo, Chien-Chi↗

Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our stochastic social activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Factors Predicting Apparent Ophidiomycosis in Wild Brown Watersnakes ( Nerodia Taxispilota )

Ophidiomycosis, also known as snake fungal disease, is caused by Ophidiomyces ophidiicola and is a threat to snake conservation worldwide. Ophidiomycosis has been reported throughout much of the eastern US, and outbreaks have been associated with local population declines of already strained populations. Previous studies report significant variability in ophidiomycosis among species sampled, with higher prevalence typically observed in Nerodia spp. Although ophidiomycosis can lead to morbidity and mortality in affected individuals, little is known about disease dynamics in free-ranging populations. Herein, we examine how individual-specific factors (e.g., life stage [immature, mature], contaminant status, sex, hemograms) may be associated with ophidiomycosis status in the brown watersnake (Nerodia taxispilota). During 2018–19, we sampled 97 N. taxispilota from five locations along the Savannah River in South Carolina and Georgia, US. Ophidiomyces ophidiicola DNA was detected in 66 snakes for a prevalence of 68% (95% confidence interval, 59–77). Mature snakes had a significantly higher risk of apparent ophidiomycosis (skin lesions present and quantitative PCR [qPCR], positive) relative to immature snakes. Snakes classified as having possible (skin lesions present, but qPCR negative) or apparent ophidiomycosis exhibited a relative azurophilia and heterophilia compared with individuals classified as negative (P≤0.037). Nerodia taxispilota in this region appear to have a high prevalence of apparent ophidiomycosis (22%; 95% CI, 14–31), similar to previous reports from the southeastern US. Furthermore, additional epidemiologic investigations are warranted to further elucidate other individual-specific and environmental factors that may dictate disease risk and outcomes in affected populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmark datasets for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance bioinformatics

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has spread globally and is being surveilled with an international genome sequencing effort. Surveillance consists of sample acquisition, library preparation, and whole genome sequencing. This has necessitated a classification scheme detailing Variants of Concern (VOC) and Variants of Interest (VOI), and the rapid expansion of bioinformatics tools for sequence analysis. These bioinformatic tools are means for major actionable results: maintaining quality assurance and checks, defining population structure, performing genomic epidemiology, and inferring lineage to allow reliable and actionable identification and classification. Additionally, the pandemic has required public health laboratories to reach high throughput proficiency in sequencing library preparation and downstream data analysis rapidly. However, both processes can be limited by a lack of a standardized sequence dataset. We identified six SARS-CoV-2 sequence datasets from recent publications, public databases and internal resources. In addition, we created a method to mine public databases to identify representative genomes for these datasets. Using this novel method, we identified several genomes as either VOI/VOC representatives or non-VOI/VOC representatives. To describe each dataset, we utilized a previously published datasets format, which describes accession information and whole dataset information. Additionally, a script from the same publication has been enhanced to download and verify all data from this study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hazard analysis of Clostridium perfringens in the Skylab Food System

The Skylab Food System presented unique microbiological problems because food was warmed in null-gravity and because the heat source was limited to 69.4 C (to prevent boiling in null-gravity). For these reasons, the foods were manufactured using critical control point techniques of quality control coupled with appropriate hazard analyses. One of these hazard analyses evaluated the threat from Clostridium perfringens. Samples of food were inoculated with C. perfringens and incubated for 2 h at temperatures ranging from 25 to 55 C. Generation times were determined for the foods at various temperatures. Results of these tests were evaluated taking into consideration: food-borne disease epidemiology, the Skylab food manufacturing procedures, and the performance requirements of the Skylab Food System. Based on this hazard analysis, a limit for C. perfringens of 100/g was established for Skylab foods.

Bourland, C. T.↗