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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1961

Post University On-the-Job Training for Engineers

Our national need for qualified scientists and engineers is greater now than at any other time in our history. Fortunately, we can point with pride to this need as a measure of the impact of science and technology on our way of life. In effect, we have made such rapid strides In advancing established sciences and in opening new technological fields that we have proved the value of the scientist and engineer to society, and, as a-result, have created an expanding demand for their services which we must now attempt to satisfy. This demand we face is also due to the changing skills and high degree of specialization required to perform in these new technological fields. The colleges and universities are doing their part to provide current graduates with a modern technical foundation, but we cannot afford to ignore the thousands of experienced engineers and scientists already employed by private industry and government. As employers, we have an obligation to these men and women to see that they are provided with an understanding of the latest advances that modern technology has to offer; that we develop them in particular specialty areas characteristic of a given field of work; and, equally important, that we assist them in the transition from one field to another as the technological emphasis shifts. Practically all technological industries have experienced and continue to experience rapid changes in their activities. The aerospace business, in particular, has been characterized by extremely rapid, in fact revolutionary, changes during the relatively short period of its existence0 At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, successor to the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics, for example, we have encountered the fun impact of a changing science and technology. Indeed, as a research organization, we have undoubtedly contributed, in some measure, to this change. Within the NASAs Lewis Research Center, we have approximately 800 research scientists and engineers who have matured professionally in an environment which is essentially one of continuous learning - an experience which comes close to being a form of post graduate training in itself. This environment, in addition to providing continuous evolutionary changes, has also provided two major revolutions which have made this development picture more complex. We will describe these environmental changes which have occurred at the Lewis Research Center and discuss the various techniques and programs we have employed to provide for the professional development of our staff. The Lewis Research Center has had an Interesting and exciting l8-year history of aerospace propulsion research and development. It began during the early years of World War II as an expansion of the Power Plant Division of the NCA Langley Center with the mission of conducting research required for the development of improved reciprocating engines and to study the associated problems of subsonic propulsion aerodynamics, It was only a few years later, however, that turbojet and ramjet propulsion and supersonic flight research became our main concern. This transition to jet type engines and higher speeds was our first major technological change. The aerodynamics of propellers became the aerodynamics of high speed turbine and compressor blades; the fuel ignition and carbon deposition problems were transferred from a cyclical or Intermittent high compression combustion chamber to a continuous combustion zone within a thin-walled metal shell; aerodynamics problems were thrust into the supersonic range; and high temperature materials began to play an increasingly critical role. Although this transition still required the same basic knowledge and principles as before, the new engine types did involve a different emphasis and variety of consideration not generally familiar to our scientists and engineers.

Manganiello, Eugene J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecohydrological controls on root and microbial respiration in the East River watershed of Colorado

The main objective of this project was to conduct exploratory work to quantify how snow and rain water inputs influence the CO2 coming from the soil surface (soil CO2 flux), and its plant and microbial sources, in the East River watershed, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Knowledge gained from this effort laid the groundwork for a more comprehensive (ongoing) follow-on grant that is using a combination of experiments, field observations, machine learning and simulation modeling to fully disentangle these relationships. New field measurements were made at four locations along an elevational transect on Snodgrass Mountain at Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. These sites were chosen to differ in total snowpack and water table depth, and included both deciduous (aspen) and evergreen (spruce/fir) forest types. We used automated measurements of soil CO2 concentrations to quantify the total soil CO2 flux, and the vertical CO2 production within the soil profile at each site. Isotope (radiocarbon, 14C) measurements determined how much of the CO2 emitted from the soil surface came from plant respiration (root metabolism) versus microbial respiration (decomposition of soil organic matter) sources. Supporting data on plant phenology and microbial dynamics provided context for the observed variation in respiration sources. This work was motivated by our overarching hypothesis that quantifying belowground plant and microbial processes separately, and how they are influenced by snow and rain inputs, is necessary for understanding and predicting how the East River watershed ecosystems will respond to future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions

Abstract Wildlife populations can respond to changes in climate conditions by either adapting or moving to areas with preferred climate regimes. We studied nesting responses of two bird species, western bluebird ( Sialia mexicana ) and ash-throated flycatcher ( Myiarchus cinerascens ), to changing climate conditions (i.e., rising temperatures and increased drought stress) over 21 years in northern New Mexico. We used data from 1649 nests to assess whether the two species responded to changing climate conditions through phenological shifts in breeding time or shifts in nesting elevation. We also examined changes in reproductive output (i.e., clutch size). Our data show that western bluebirds significantly increased nesting elevation over a 19-year period by approximately 5 m per year. Mean spring temperature was the best predictor of western bluebird nesting elevation. Higher nesting elevations were not correlated with hatch dates or clutch sizes in western bluebirds, suggesting that nesting at higher elevations does not affect breeding time or reproductive output. We did not observe significant changes in nesting elevation or breeding dates in ash-throated flycatchers. Nesting higher in elevation may allow western bluebirds to cope with the increased temperatures and droughts. However, this climate niche conservatism may pose a risk for the conservation of the species if climate change and habitat loss continue to occur. The lack of significant changes detected in nesting elevation, breeding dates, and reproductive output in ash-throated flycatchers suggests a higher tolerance for changing environmental conditions in this species. This is consistent with the population increases reported for flycatchers in areas experiencing dramatic climate changes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature and nutrients drive eco-phenotypic dynamics in a microbial food web

Anthropogenic increases in temperature and nutrient loads will likely impact food web structure and stability. Although their independent effects have been reasonably well studied, their joint effects—particularly on coupled ecological and phenotypic dynamics—remain poorly understood. Here we experimentally manipulated temperature and nutrient levels in microbial food webs and used time-series analysis to quantify the strength of reciprocal effects between ecological and phenotypic dynamics across trophic levels. We found that (1) joint—often interactive—effects of temperature and nutrients on ecological dynamics are more common at higher trophic levels, (2) temperature and nutrients interact to shift the relative strength of top-down versus bottom-up control, and (3) rapid phenotypic change mediates observed ecological responses to changes in temperature and nutrients. Our results uncover how feedback between ecological and phenotypic dynamics mediate food web responses to environmental change. As a result, this suggests important but previously unknown ways that temperature and nutrients might jointly control the rapid eco-phenotypic feedback that determine food web dynamics in a changing world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Final Report: Connecting genomic capabilities to physiology and response: Systems biology of the widespread alga Micromonas

Increased stratification, less mixing and reduced nutrient concentrations in marine surface waters are predicted under a number of climate-change scenarios. These conditions are considered favorable for tiny photosynthetic algae (picophytoplankton), shaping their role in mediating future CO2 conditions. One possibility is that picophytoplankton such as Micromonas that have broad geographical ranges will more successfully adapt to changing environmental conditions. However, their capacity to thrive under the multi-factorial impacts of low pH, low nutrients, increasing temperature and changes in community composition is not known. Here, we developed the dual-Micromonas model system, which entailed generating optimized genomic information for two Micromonas species and developing a highperformance chemostat system in which both CO2 and nutrients could be consistently manipulated. This system is now fully operational. Project results are available in several publications will others are still in the analysis phase. Overall, our results show that Micromonas primary production will likely decrease under predicted future climate conditions. Furthermore, our studies on Micromonas provide new insights to the land plant ancestor, including the discovery of conserved signaling mechanisms (known to be essential to plant development) as well as the discovery of widespread chemical-sensing molecular switches. Collectively, this research highlights Micromonas as an important new model green alga for understanding plant gene networks and evolution as well as for investigating perturbation effects on marine primary production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fourth Airborne Geoscience Workshop: Summary Minutes

The general theme for the workshop revolved around global environmental change. Over 170 individuals participated in the presentations and ensuing discussions about the many agency activities using airborne platforms and sensors in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (GCRP). The U.S. GCRP was developed as a central component of the U.S. Government's approach to global change and its contribution to worldwide efforts. An all-encompassing U.S. plan was developed by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES), which continues as the interagency coordinating group for the program. The U.S. GCRP was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY90 budget, making it a particularly relevant topic for the workshop. The following are presented in the appendices: (1) final agenda and list of registrants; (2) final list of poster presenters; (3) steering group luncheon participants; (4) the draft resolution; and (5) selected handouts.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Change Data Center: Mission, Organization, Major Activities, and 2001 Highlights

Rapid efficient access to Earth sciences data is fundamental to the Nation's efforts to understand the effects of global environmental changes and their implications for public policy. It becomes a bigger challenge in the future when data volumes increase further and missions with constellations of satellites start to appear. Demands on data storage, data access, network throughput, processing power, and database and information management are increased by orders of magnitude, while budgets remain constant and even shrink. The Global Change Data Center's (GCDC) mission is to provide systems, data products, and information management services to maximize the availability and utility of NASA's Earth science data. The specific objectives are (1) support Earth science missions be developing and operating systems to generate, archive, and distribute data products and information; (2) develop innovative information systems for processing, archiving, accessing, visualizing, and communicating Earth science data; and (3) develop value-added products and services to promote broader utilization of NASA Earth Sciences Enterprise (ESE) data and information. The ultimate product of GCDC activities is access to data and information to support research, education, and public policy.

Wharton, Stephen W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise

There are strong scientific indications that natural change in the Earth system is being accelerated by human intervention. As a result, planet Earth faces the possibility of rapid environmental changes that would have a profound impact on all nations. However, we do not fully understand either the short-term effects of our activities, or their long-term implications - many important scientific questions remain unanswered. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with the national and international scientific communities to establish a sound scientific basis for addressing these critical issues through research efforts coordinated under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, and the World Climate Research Program. The Earth Science Enterprise is NASA's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise will use space- and surface-based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. The space-based components will provide a constellation of satellites to monitor the Earth from space. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The overall objective of the EOS Program is to determine the extent, causes, and regional consequences of global climate change. EOS will provide sustained space-based observations that will allow researchers to monitor climate variables over time to determine trends. A constellation of EOS satellites will acquire global data, beginning in 1998 and extending well into the 21st century.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic Biology of Plants and Microbes for Agriculture, Environment, and Future Applications

Agriculture is under pressure to provide food for a growing population and the feedstock required to drive the bioeconomy. Methods to breed and genetically modify plants are inadequate to keep pace. When engineering crops, traits are painstakingly introduced into plants one-at-a-time, combine unpredictably, and are continuously expressed. Synthetic biology is changing these paradigms with new genome construction tools, computer aided design (CAD), and artificial intelligence (AI). “Smart plants” contain circuits that respond to environmental change, alter morphology, or respond to threats. Further, the plant and associated microbes (fungi, bacteria, archaea) are now being viewed by genetic engineers as a holistic system. Historically, plant health has been enhanced by many natural and laboratory-evolved soil microbes marketed to enhance growth, provide nutrients, or confer pest/stress resistance. Synthetic biology has expanded the number of species that can be engineered, increased the complexity of engineered functions, controlled environmental release, and assembled stable consortia. New CAD tools will manage genetic engineering projects spanning multiple plant genomes (nucleus, chloroplast, mitochondrion) and the thousands of genomes of associated bacteria/fungi. Here, this review covers advanced genetic engineering techniques to drive the next agricultural revolution, as well as push plant engineering into new realms for manufacturing, infrastructure, sensing, and remediation.

Clauer, Phillip [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Temporal effects of disturbance on community composition in simulated stage‐structured plant communities

Abstract In an era of global environmental change, understanding how disturbance affects the dynamics of ecological communities is crucial. However, few studies have theoretically explored the potential influence of disturbance including both intensity and frequency on compositional change over time in communities with stage structure. A spatially explicit, individual‐based model was constructed incorporating the various demographic responses to disturbance of plants at two different growth stages: seedlings and adults. In the model, we assumed that individuals within each stage were demographically equivalent (neutral) but differed between stages. We simulated a common phenomenon that seedlings suffered more from disturbance such as grazing and fire than adults. We showed how stage‐structured communities of seedlings and adults responded to disturbance with various levels of disturbance frequency and intensity. In “undisturbed” simulations, the relationship between average species abundance (defined here as the total number of individuals divided by species richness) and community composition turnover (measured by the Bray–Curtis similarity index) was asymptotic. However, in strongly “disturbed” simulations with the between‐disturbance intervals greater than one, this relationship became unimodal. Stage‐dependent response to disturbance underlay the above discrepancy between undisturbed and disturbed communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

How can an ecosystem approach support integrated management of marine renewable energy? An initial assessment from an environmental point of view

With the increasing installation of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices in areas already subject to multiple anthropogenic activities and environmental changes, it is necessary to develop tools and methods for the integrated management of marine ecosystems. The ecosystem approach is a holistic environmental management method that considers all components of an ecosystem. The ecosystem approach has demonstrated utility in the application to various anthropogenic activities and is relevant for consideration within the context of MRE. Indeed, many of the effects observed on marine ecosystems from those other activities are also applicable to MRE development. This review is an initial assessment where we summarize the potential effects of MRE development on marine ecosystems and propose schematic frameworks for applying the ecosystem approach to MRE. We also provide a non-exhaustive list of commonly used models pertinent to the ecosystem approach and associated with several reference studies. An outline of core questions that can currently be answered using available modeling tools central to the ecosystem approach is provided, along with recommendations for the application of this approach to the MRE context. Further, we identify key knowledge gaps and areas that require additional investigation for meaningful application of the ecosystem approach to MRE development. Our recommendations mainly concern the current limitations of applying the ecosystem approach to concrete cases, such as consolidating knowledge of the effects of MRE on the local environment, the need to obtain fine-scale data, considering effects at different spatiotemporal scales, and, finally, the need for an interdisciplinary vision.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗