Electric sector impacts of renewable policy coordination: A multi-model study of the North American energy system
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Bistline, John E. T.↗
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Model quantification of the effect of coproducts and refinery co-hydrotreating on the economics and greenhouse gas emissions of a conceptual biomass catalytic fast pyrolysis process
Here we present model results for a scaled-up conceptual process informed by bench scale biomass catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) and hydrotreating experimental data. This process uses a Pt/TiO 2 catalyst during CFP, which produces a partially deoxygenated organic biocrude intermediate that is then hydroprocessed to a hydrocarbon fuel blendstock; the catalyst also enables high yields of acetone and methyl-ethyl-ketone (MEK) coproducts. Two options for hydroprocessing were modeled: (A) co-hydrotreating at a petroleum refinery using hydrogen sourced from steam reforming of natural gas and (B) standalone hydrotreating at a biorefinery using hydrogen sourced from CFP off gases. The results revealed that Case A was economically advantageous with a modeled minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of $\$$2.83/GGE or gallon gasoline equivalent (in 2016 US dollars), while the additional cost of standalone hydrotreating facilities in Case B increased the MFSP to $3.13/GGE. Conversely, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were lower for Case B (3.9 g CO 2 e/MJ) compared to Case A (21.5 g CO 2 e/MJ) due to the use of biogenic (Case B) and fossil-derived (Case A) hydrogen. In a third option (Case C), the requirements for separation and purification of acetone and MEK were removed from the refinery co-processing scenario (Case A) to evaluate the impacts of this process simplification. Elimination of these coproducts increased the MFSP to $3.21/GGE and GHG emissions to 35 g CO 2 e/MJ. These comparisons based on our detailed conceptual models provide economic and sustainability guidance regarding processing choices for future biorefineries. While refinery coprocessing using existing equipment and the production of relatively valuable coproducts can benefit the economics, the hydrogen-source and biogenic coproducts can have significant impacts on the sustainability of the process, and feasibility to use CFP off-gases or other renewable sources for hydrogen production can help lower GHG emissions.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Physical solvents and techno-economic analysis for pre-combustion CO 2 capture: A review
In this manuscript we review the use, development, and economic performance of physical solvents for pre-combustion CO 2 capture from high pressure H 2 rich syngas streams. Commercially available physical solvents are presented, followed by an assessment of the ideal properties that are important for development of novel solvents for CO 2 capture from high-pressure syngas streams. To compare the technical and economic performance of traditional and novel physical solvents, a review of the methods, assumptions and models used in techno-economic analysis (TEA) studies was conducted. It was found that, although some novel solvents show promising technical performance in the laboratory (e.g., high CO 2 absorption capacity and low vapor pressure), other issues (e.g., solvent viscosity and cost) may limit their industrial applications. Process simulations were useful tools for modeling the technical performance of processes using traditional and novel solvents. However, model predictions are most reliable when the methods and correlations used to develop the process simulation are validated with representative experimental data, in particular highly accurate baseline models are required for fair comparison among physical solvents. The key inputs and assumptions in pre-combustion CO 2 capture TEAs have also been summarized. Some studies showed that the promising technical performance of novel physical solvents can be offset by the high and often unknown costs of these solvents. Future development of novel physical solvents for pre-combustion CO 2 capture will benefit from more studies that conduct in-depth techno-economic analysis, specifically with validated process simulations and transparent economic models.
42 ENGINEERING↗
UMass 2-Body WEC Techno-Economic Assessment
The University of Massachusetts (UMass) is developing a 2-body wave energy converter (WEC) device that is converting mechanical power into electricity using a mechanical motion rectifier that allows the system to couple to a flywheel. UMass has completed numerical modeling, wave tank testing, and PTO sub-system testing and needed assistance in developing a techno-economic model to enable optimization of their topology, comparison to a generic heaving point absorber topology, and guide the next steps in their development efforts. The core objective was to develop a techno-economic approach and modeling tool that allows benchmarking of the two topologies across a wide range of scales to evaluate their respective competitiveness in different application spaces. This data includes the final report as well as a supporting spreadsheet containing the data produced for this report.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Data-scarce surrogate modeling of shock-induced pore collapse process
Understanding the mechanisms of shock-induced pore collapse is of great interest in various disciplines in sciences and engineering, including materials science, biological sciences, and geophysics. However, numerical modeling of the complex pore collapse processes can be costly. To this end, a strong need exists to develop surrogate models for generating economic predictions of pore collapse processes. Here, in this work, we study the use of a data-driven reduced-order model, namely dynamic mode decomposition, and a deep generative model, namely conditional generative adversarial networks, to resemble the numerical simulations of the pore collapse process at representative training shock pressures. Since the simulations are expensive, the training data are scarce, which makes training an accurate surrogate model challenging. To overcome the difficulties posed by the complex physics phenomena, we make several crucial treatments to the plain original form of the methods to increase the capability of approximating and predicting the dynamics. In particular, physics information is used as indicators or conditional inputs to guide the prediction. In realizing these methods, the training of each dynamic mode composition model takes only around 30 s on CPU. In contrast, training a generative adversarial network model takes 8 h on GPU. Moreover, using dynamic mode decomposition, the final-time relative error is around 0.3% in the reproductive cases. We also demonstrate the predictive power of the methods at unseen testing shock pressures, where the error ranges from 1.3 to 5% in the interpolatory cases and 8 to 9% in extrapolatory cases.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Techno-Economic Optimization of a Solvent Absorption Process for CO2 Capture with 3D-Printed Intensified Packing
Presentation given at the 2024 annual AICHE meeting held October 27-31, 2024. The presentation focuses on modeling performance and economics of a solvent absorption system for CO2 capture with towers utilizing intensified packing. The packing is an alternative to traditional structured packing by incorporating cooling channel for simultaneous mass and heat transfer.
Summits, Stephen↗
Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management
This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management
This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
MACCS Theory Manual
This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant
A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.
BESS scheduling↗
Systems-To-Atoms (S2A): enabling hydrogen for climate security
The project addresses a critical gap in hydrogen infrastructure by integrating system-level energy models with atomic-scale material simulations in a unified Systems-to-Atoms (S2A) framework. The motivation stems from the need to develop efficient, cost-effective, and durable hydrogen transport and utilization technologies to support decarbonization of hard-to-electrify sectors such as heavy-duty transportation. Current system models lack awareness of material performance mechanisms, while material-scale models do not account for system-level usage and variability. To bridge this divide, the team developed a co-simulation capability linking techno-economic analyses, reactor/process-flow modeling, and molecular-scale catalysis simulations. Applied to hydrogen delivery in California, the framework enabled comparative evaluations of compressed, cryogenic, and liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) pathways, highlighting how catalyst operation and unit process efficiency influence overall performance. The results demonstrate that no single material or transport mode is universally optimal; instead, heterogeneous solutions tuned to specific operational contexts deliver better performance. The project delivers a new capability for cross-scale material co-design, advancing hydrogen infrastructure readiness and informing DOE and LLNL missions in climate and energy resilience.
organic↗
Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets
The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.
Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
Phase-field simulations of fission gas bubbles in high burnup UO2 to inform engineering-scale fuel performance modeling
To improve the economics of commercial nuclear energy generation, U.S. utilities are currently seeking licensing approval to operate UO2 fuel to higher burnups. One significant safety issue that must be addressed to obtain approval is the potential for fine fragmentation/pulverization of the fuel during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The cause of pulverization has been hypothesized to be the rapid increase of pressure in fission gas bubbles in the high burnup region of the fuel during a LOCA. To better understand this phenomenon, a novel phase-field model of the fission gas bubble microstructure in UO2 has been developed and implemented in Idaho National Laboratory (INL)'s Marmot application for phase-field simulation of nuclear materials. Simulations of the bubble response to steady-state and transient conditions were conducted. Simulation results were used to inform a mechanistic model of pulverization in BISON, INL’s fuel performance simulation code.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Comparative techno-economic analysis of synthetic renewable natural gas production via reactive CO 2 capture and conversion
Reactive CO 2 capture and conversion (RCC) is an emerging carbon management strategy that integrates CO 2 capture and conversion and avoids intermediate CO 2 purification. In this study, we design an RCC process to capture atmospheric CO 2 and react it with renewable hydrogen to produce synthetic renewable natural gas (SRNG), which serves as a carbon-neutral energy source and a chemical form of long-duration renewable energy storage. We assess the technological potential of RCC through process modeling, techno-economic, carbon footprint, and sensitivity analyses. Our findings demonstrate that RCC offers energy savings and comparable cost to separated capture and conversion processes. The cost is dominated by renewable hydrogen and material replacement cost. SRNG produced via RCC is competitive with existing low-carbon natural gas technologies and presents a promising low-cost option for long-duration energy storage. This work highlights the potential for deploying RCC technologies within a circular carbon economy and the scientific and technical challenges that must be overcome for material and technology developers.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Practice Summary: Improved Reliability via Optimization in Residential Microgrids
Southern Company is an electric utility that is embracing residential microgrids as a platform for distributed energy. The first residential microgrid in the southeastern United States was constructed in Hoover, Alabama, as a testbed for development. To operate the microgrid, we developed an optimization model for unit commitment and economic dispatch. We report the optimization model was implemented in a microgrid central controller and tested under various operational scenarios. Challenges also include developing a pricing algorithm to deliver price forecasts to the residential homes in the microgrid and open-source software restrictions.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Screening green solvents for multilayer plastic film recycling processes
Multilayer (ML) plastic films are essential packaging materials that help protect products from diverse external factors; however, only 5% of all ML films are recycled in the United States. Solvent-based technologies are a promising alternative for recycling ML films because they enable recovery of constituent polymer resins. For example, the Solvent Targeted Recovery and Precipitation (STRAPTM) process sequentially dissolves and separates polymer components using a series of targeted solvent washes. A crucial design aspect of this process is the impact of selected solvents on human health and on the environment. Here, this work introduces a computational framework that integrates molecular modeling, process modeling, techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life-cycle analysis (LCA) to quickly screen green solvents for solvent-based ML recycling processes. Initial screening for solvents based on selectivity is performed by estimating temperature-dependent solubilities using molecular-scale models. Subsequent screening uses basic estimates of energy use and octanol-water partition coefficients (logP) as key measures of health, safety, and environmental hazards. Detailed process modeling, TEA, and LCA are used on a reduced set of promising solvents identified in early screening steps to more accurately determine how solvent selection and associated operating conditions impact overall economics and environmental impacts. The framework is used for the identification of green solvents (from a database of 1,000 solvents) that separate an industrial ML film composed of polyethylene (PE), ethylene vinyl alcohol (EVOH), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Our analysis shows the effectiveness of the framework and reveals fundamental trade-offs between solvent greenness, solubility, and economics. Our work emphasizes the importance of taking a holistic systems view during solvent design and aims to inform the development of new processes for ML film recycling and the identification of new ML films that are easier to recycle.
economics↗
Residential Battery Modeling for Control-Oriented Techno-Economic Studies: Preprint
Electrochemical batteries, which serve as electric energy storage devices, are becoming increasingly popular among residential buildings that incorporate solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to help meet their energy needs. Battery economics are affected by performance degradation over time, and managing this degradation can help extend the battery's lifespan. The tradeoff between operational costs/benefits and managing battery degradation is of significant research interest. One of the key factors for assessing battery degradation is the dispatch strategy used to control the charging and discharging of the battery. Conventional dispatch strategies typically use simple rule-based methods, and these overly aggressive charging/discharging cycles can significantly reduce a battery’s life span. Our research seeks to develop optimized dispatch strategies for grid-connected PV homes with a goal of extending battery life while simultaneously taking into consideration utility costs and occupant comfort. To achieve this goal, we adapted lithium-ion battery life- and cyclic-degradation models for use in high-fidelity building simulations, so whole-building and grid-interactive controllers can dispatch the batteries along with other flexible loads. With the help of a co-simulation platform, we performed a simulation study to compute the optimized dispatch strategies for relevant operating conditions brought about by changing geographical locations, weather conditions, and utility pricing. Comparing the optimized strategies with the conventional strategies resulted in a >50% decrease in capacity degradation and >10% average reduction in operational costs during the months of January and July in Fort Collins, Colorado; Phoenix, Arizona; and Portland, Oregon.
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
System-of-systems optimization of hydrogen infrastructure for heavy-duty freight corridors: The interstate 10 case study
Medium and heavy-duty freight transportation requires hydrogen energy infrastructure that is cost-effective, operationally reliable, spatially coherent, and resilient to demand variability along major corridors. This paper presents an integrated hydrogen corridor planning framework using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's OR-AGENT that couples freight-driven, route-resolved hydrogen demand modeling with optimized station siting, sizing, and station-level techno-economic analysis. The framework is demonstrated for the Interstate 10 freight corridor and the Houston-to-Los-Angeles region. Hydrogen demand is derived from high-resolution origin–destination freight data, duty-cycle characterization, and physics-based energy consumption modeling. Candidate refueling sites are selected from existing heavy-duty diesel fueling locations and optimized subject to onboard storage and station capacity constraints. Resulting station throughputs are evaluated using established techno-economic models for electrolytic hydrogen production and dispensing infrastructure. Results show that a regional, portfolio-level aggregation, average dispensed electrolytic hydrogen cost of $6.87–$7.26/kg is currently feasible, and is strongly influenced by demand density and utilization.
Sujan, Vivek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269882342)↗