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At least 325 records · Page 18

Economic Impact of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on the State of Washington in Fiscal Year 2013

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a large economic entity, with $1.06 billion in annual funding, $936 million in total spending, and 4,344 employees in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Four thousand, one hundred and one (4,101) employees live in Washington State. The Laboratory directly and indirectly supports almost $1.31 billion in economic output, 6,802 jobs, and $514 million in Washington State wage income from current operations. The state also gains more than $1.21 billion in output, more than 6,400 jobs, and $459 million in income through closely related economic activities, such as visitors, health care spending, spending by resident retirees, and spinoff companies. PNNL affects Washington’s economy through commonly recognized economic channels, including spending on payrolls and other goods and services that support Laboratory operations. Less-commonly recognized channels also have their own impacts and include company-supported spending on health care for its staff members and retirees, spending of its resident retirees, Laboratory visitor spending, and the economic activities in a growing constellation of “spinoff” companies founded on PNNL research, technology, and managerial expertise. PNNL also has a significant impact on science and technology education and community nonprofit organizations. PNNL is an active participant in the future scientific enterprise in Washington with the state’s K-12 schools, colleges, and universities. The Laboratory sends staff members to the classroom and brings hundreds of students to the PNNL campus to help train the next generation of scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and technicians. This investment in human capital, though difficult to measure in terms of current dollars of economic output, is among the important lasting legacies of the Laboratory. Finally, PNNL contributes to the local community with millions of dollars’ worth of cash and in-kind corporate and staff contributions, all of which strengthen the economy. This report quantifies these effects, providing detailed information on PNNL’s revenues and expenditures, as well as the impacts of its activities on the rest of the Washington State economy. This report also describes the impacts of the four closely related activities: health care spending, spinoff companies with roots in PNNL, visitors to the Laboratory, and PNNL retirees.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Cost of Enforcing Building Energy Codes: Phase 2

The purpose of this study is to present key findings regarding costs associated with enforcing building energy code compliance–primarily focusing on costs borne by local government. Building codes, if complied with, have the ability to save a significant amount of energy. However, energy code compliance rates have been significantly lower than 100%. Renewed interest in building energy codes has focused efforts on increasing compliance, particularly as a result of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) requirement that in order for states to receive additional energy grants, they must have “a plan for the jurisdiction achieving compliance with the building energy code…in at least 90 percent of new and renovated residential and commercial building space” by 2017 (Public Law 111-5, Section 410(2)(C)). One study by the Institute for Market Transformation (IMT) estimated the costs associated with reaching 90% compliance to be $810 million, or $610 million in additional funding over existing expenditures, a non-trivial value. [Majersik & Stellberg 2010] In this context, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) conducted a study to better pinpoint the costs of enforcement through a two-phase process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regulatory Technology Development Plan Sodium Fast Reactor. Mechanistic Source Term Development

Construction and operation of a nuclear power installation in the U.S. requires licensing by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A vital part of this licensing process and integrated safety assessment entails the analysis of a source term (or source terms) that represents the release of radionuclides during normal operation and accident sequences. Historically, nuclear plant source term analyses have utilized deterministic, bounding assessments of the radionuclides released to the environment. Significant advancements in technical capabilities and the knowledge state have enabled the development of more realistic analyses such that a mechanistic source term (MST) assessment is now expected to be a requirement of advanced reactor licensing. This report focuses on the state of development of an MST for a sodium fast reactor (SFR), with the intent of aiding in the process of MST definition by qualitatively identifying and characterizing the major sources and transport processes of radionuclides. Due to common design characteristics among current U.S. SFR vendor designs, a metal-fuel, pool-type SFR has been selected as the reference design for this work, with all phenomenological discussions geared toward this specific reactor configuration. This works also aims to identify the key gaps and uncertainties in the current knowledge state that must be addressed for SFR MST development. It is anticipated that this knowledge state assessment can enable the coordination of technology and analysis tool development discussions such that any knowledge gaps may be addressed. Sources of radionuclides considered in this report include releases originating both in-vessel and ex-vessel, including in-core fuel, primary sodium and cover gas cleanup systems, and spent fuel movement and handling. Transport phenomena affecting various release groups are identified and qualitatively discussed, including fuel pin and primary coolant retention, and behavior in the cover gas and containment. Radionuclides released from a primary sodium fire are also considered as potential sources. Any available experimental data and pertinent results relevant to the aforementioned phenomena are discussed, and operating incidents at domestically operated facilities are also examined. Considering the extensive range of phenomena affecting the release of radionuclides, the existing state of knowledge generally appears to be substantial, and may be sufficient in most areas. For core damage accidents, high retention rates should be expected within the fuel matrix and primary sodium coolant for all radionuclides other than the noble gases. These factors greatly reduce the magnitude of possible radionuclide release to the environment. Several possible gaps within the knowledgebase were identified during this effort. First, there are uncertainties with regard to radionuclide release from metal fuel in the molten state. Another knowledge gap appears in the available thermodynamic data regarding the behavior of lanthanides and actinides in liquid sodium. While not necessarily a phenomenological knowledge gap, a determination of the data requirements for MST development should be formally made prior to the expenditure of significant future research efforts. That is, if additional experimentation is performed in support of MST development, it is important to identify the proper quality assurance requirements for licensing

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evolution of the U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008

The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private sector business model where energy savings are delivered to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. This study was conceived as a snapshot of the ESCO industry prior to the economic slowdown and the introduction of federal stimulus funding mandated by enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). This study utilizes two parallel analytic approaches to characterize ESCO industry and market trends in the U.S.: (1) a “top-down” approach involving a survey of individual ESCOs to estimate aggregate industry activity and (2) a “bottom-up” analysis of a database of -3,265 projects (representing over $8B in project investment) that reports market trends including installed EE retrofit strategies, project installation costs and savings, project payback times, and benefit-cost ratios over time. Despite the onset of an economic recession, the U.S. ESCO industry managed to grow at about 7% per year between 2006 and 2008. ESCO industry revenues are relatively small compared to total U.S. energy expenditures (about $4.1 billion in 2008), but ESCOs anticipated accelerated growth through 2011 (25% per year). We found that 2,484 ESCO projects in our database generated -$4.0 billion ($2009) in net, direct economic benefits to their customers. We estimate that the ESCO project database includes about 20% of all U.S. ESCO market activity from 1990-2008. Assuming the net benefits per project are comparable for ESCO projects that are not included in the LBNL database, this would suggest that the ESCO industry has generated -$23 billion in net direct economic benefits for customers at projects installed between 1990 and 2008. We found that nearly 85% of all public and institutional projects met or exceeded the guaranteed level of savings. We estimated that a typical ESCO project generated $1.5 dollars of direct benefits for every dollar of customer investment. There is empirical evidence confirming that the industry is responding to customer demand by installing more comprehensive and complex measures—including onsite generation and measures to address deferred maintenance—but this evolution has significant implications for customer project economics, especially at K-12 schools. We found that the median simple payback time has increased from 1.9 to 3.2 years in private sector projects since the early-to-mid 1990s and from 5.2 to 10.5 years in public sector projects for the same time period.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economic Impact of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on the State of Washington in Fiscal Year 2014

PNNL is a large economic entity with a total of 4,308 employees, $939 million (M) in total funding, and $1.02 billion (B) in total spending during FY 2014. The number of employees that live in Washington State is 4,026 or 93 percent of the Laboratory staff. he Laboratory directly and indirectly supported $1.45 billion in economic output, 6,832 jobs, and $517 million in Washington State wage income from current operations. The state also gained more than $1.19 billion in output, over 6,200 jobs, and $444 million in income through closely related economic activities such as visitors, health care spending, spending by resident retirees, and spinoff companies. PNNL affects Washington’s economy through commonly recognized economic channels, including spending on payrolls and other goods and services that support Laboratory operations. Less commonly recognized channels also have their own impacts and include company-supported spending on health care for its staff members and retirees, spending of its resident retirees, Laboratory visitor spending, and the economic activities in a growing constellation of “spinoff” companies founded on PNNL research, technology, and managerial expertise. PNNL also has a significant impact on science and technology education and community not-for-profit organizations. PNNL is an active participant in the future scientific enterprise in Washington with the state’s K-12 schools, colleges, and universities. The Laboratory sends staff members to the classroom and brings hundreds of students to the PNNL campus to help train the next generation of scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and technicians. This investment in human capital, though difficult to measure in terms of current dollars of economic output, is among the important lasting legacies of the Laboratory. Finally, PNNL contributes to the local community with millions of dollars’ worth of cash and in-kind corporate and staff contributions, all of which strengthen the economy. The purpose of this report is to quantify these effects, providing detailed information on PNNL’s revenues and expenditures, as well as the impacts of its activities on the rest of the Washington State economy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Advanced Acid Gas Separation Technology for Clean Power and Syngas Applications

Air Products has developed an acid gas removal technology based on adsorption (Sour PSA) that favorably compares with incumbent AGR technologies. During this DOE-sponsored study, Air Products has been able to increase the Sour PSA technology readiness level by successfully operating a two-bed test system on coal-derived sour syngas at the NCCC, validating the lifetime and performance of the adsorbent material. Both proprietary simulation and data obtained during the testing at NCCC were used to further refine the estimate of the performance of the Sour PSA technology when expanded to a commercial scale. In-house experiments on sweet syngas combined with simulation work allowed Air Products to develop new PSA cycles that allowed for further reduction in capital expenditure. Finally our techno economic analysis of the use the Sour PSA technology for both IGCC and coal-to-methanol applications suggests significant improvement of the unit cost of electricity and methanol compared to incumbent AGR technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Pulsed Joining Of Body-In-White Components

The objective of this project was to develop cost efficient high quality pulsed welding (PW) technology for joining 6xxx Aluminum and High Strength Steel (with tensile strength above 580MPa) components enabling broad usage of hydroformed parts and leading to substantial weight reduction of cars and trucks to reduce US demand on petroleum, lower carbon emissions and energy expenditures. In general, pulsed welding is a form of impact welding where two dissimilar metal pieces are joined by accelerating one to velocities exceeding 300m/s at which point the first piece strikes the second and forms a weld. In this work, two methods were used to accelerate the flyer material: Electro-Magnetic (EM) pulse and Electro-Hydraulic (EH) pulse launching. The advantage of pulsed welding techniques is that welds can be formed between two materials that cannot otherwise be welded: high strength aluminum and high strength steel. The technical objectives of the project included: 1) developing cost affordable production feasible tooling design for PW of 6xxx aluminum to High Strength steel with strengths above 580MPa; 2) demonstrating that fabricated joints can exceed the required service load strength initially at the coupon level and then at the component level; 3) developing fundamental understanding of the mechanisms of joint formation and conditions leading to formation of high quality PW joint; and 4) creating a numerical model predicting the tooling and electric discharge parameters necessary for the joint formation and that satisfy the targeted strength parameters. The project successfully developed: 1) EM and EH pulsed welds between high strength aluminum with tensile strengths exceeding 240MPa and steels exceeding 580MPa; 2) pulsed welds of extrusions with strengths exceeding project requirements; 3) EM and EH flyer launch models and 4) weld interface formation models. However, the grant holder, Ford Motor Company, could see no path to commercialization and the work was discontinued at the end of the first budget period.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Approach to Fuel Efficient Tires

The objective of this project was to design, develop, and demonstrate fuel efficient and safety regulation compliant tire filler and barrier coating technologies that will improve overall fuel efficiency by at least 2%. The program developed and validated two complementary approaches to improving fuel efficiency through tire improvements. The first technology was a modified silica-based product that is 15% lower in cost and/or enables a 10% improvement in tread wear while maintaining the already demonstrated minimum of 2% improvement in average fuel efficiency. The second technology was a barrier coating with reduced oxygen transmission rate compared to the state-of-the-art halobutyl rubber inner liners that will provide extended placarded tire pressure retention at significantly reduced material usage. A lower-permeance, thinner inner liner coating which retains tire pressure was expected to deliver the additional 2% reduction in fleet fuel consumption. From the 2006 Transportation Research Board Report1, a 10 percent reduction in rolling resistance can reduce consumer fuel expenditures by 1 to 2 percent for typical vehicles. This savings is equivalent to 6 to 12 gallons per year. A 1 psi drop in inflation pressure increases the tire's rolling resistance by about 1.4 percent.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Wabash Valley Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle, Coal to Fischer Tropsch Jet Fuel Conversion Study

This reports examines the feasibility of converting the existing Wabash Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant into a liquid fuel facility, with the goal of maximizing jet fuel production. The fuels produced are required to be in compliance with Section 526 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007 §526) lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requirements, so lifecycle GHG emissions from the fuel must be equal to or better than conventional fuels. Retrofitting an existing gasification facility reduces the technical risk and capital costs associated with a coal to liquids project, leading to a higher probability of implementation and more competitive liquid fuel prices. The existing combustion turbine will continue to operate on low cost natural gas and low carbon fuel gas from the gasification facility. The gasification technology utilized at Wabash is the E-Gas™ Technology and has been in commercial operation since 1995. In order to minimize capital costs, the study maximizes reuse of existing equipment with minimal modifications. Plant data and process models were used to develop process data for downstream units. Process modeling was utilized for the syngas conditioning, acid gas removal, CO 2 compression and utility units. Syngas conversion to Fischer Tropsch (FT) liquids and upgrading of the liquids was modeled and designed by Johnson Matthey Davy Technologies (JM Davy). In order to maintain the GHG emission profile below that of conventional fuels, the CO 2 from the process must be captured and exported for sequestration or enhanced oil recovery. In addition the power utilized for the plant’s auxiliary loads had to be supplied by a low carbon fuel source. Since the process produces a fuel gas with sufficient energy content to power the plant’s loads, this fuel gas was converted to hydrogen and exported to the existing gas turbine for low carbon power production. Utilizing low carbon fuel gas and process steam in the existing combined cycle power plant provides sufficient power for all plant loads. The lifecycle GHG profile of the produced jet fuel is 95% of conventional jet fuel. Without converting the fuel gas to a low carbon fuel gas, the emissions would be 108% of conventional jet fuel and without any GHG mitigation, the profile would be 206%. Oil prices greater than $120 per barrel are required to reach a targeted internal rate of return on equity (IRROE) of 12%. Although capital expenditure is much less than if a greenfield facility was built, the relatively small size of the plant, assumed coal price, and the CTL risk profile used in the economic assumptions lead to a high cost of production. Assuming more favorable factors, the economic oil price could be reduced to $78 per barrel with GHG mitigation and $55 per barrel with no GHG mitigation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Management Academy LANL Business Systems: Property Management, Course #31036

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is responsible for the efficient economical management of all government property in its stewardship. This training explains the role LANL managers have in managing, controlling, and disposing of government property. The Laboratory's goal is good asset management. By properly managing property across the facility, Laboratory managers can help ASM improve government property utilization and extend asset life, while reducing asset-related operating costs and expenditures.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag models that considered effects of oil price changes, but did not account for effects of oil price levels. Gasoline prices were rarely examined. The tests conducted in this report evaluate gasoline instead of oil.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

State Approaches to Demand Reduction Induced Price Effects: Examining How Energy Efficiency Can Lower Prices for All

Effects (DRIPE) as a real, quantifiable benefit of energy efficiency and demand response programs. DRIPE is a measurement of the value of demand reductions in terms of the decrease in wholesale energy prices, resulting in lower total expenditures on electricity or natural gas across a given grid. Crucially for policymakers and consumer advocates, DRIPE savings accrue not only to the subset of customers who consume less, but to all consumers. Rate-paying customers realize DRIPE savings when price reductions across an electricity or natural gas system are passed on to all retail customers as lower rates (depending upon regulation and market structure, residual savings may be wholly or partially retained by utilities). DRIPE savings, though seemingly small in terms of percent price reductions or dollars per household, can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars per year across entire states or grids. Therefore, accurately assessing DRIPE benefits can help to ensure appropriate programs are designed and implemented for energy efficiency measures. This paper reviews the existing knowledge and experience from select U.S. states regarding DRIPE (including New York and Ohio), and the potential for expanded application of the concept of DRIPE by regulators. Policymakers and public utility commissions have a critical role to play in setting the methodology for determining DRIPE, encouraging its capture by utilities, and allocating DRIPE benefits among utilities, various groups of customers, and/or society at large. While the methodologies for estimating DRIPE benefits are still being perfected, policymakers can follow the examples of states such as Maryland and Vermont in including conservative DRIPE estimates in their resource planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This report evaluates the future costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy used to meet current state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). It also examines a future scenario where RPSs are expanded. The analysis examines changes in electric system costs and retail electricity prices, which include all fixed and operating costs, including capital costs for all renewable, non-renewable, and supporting (e.g., transmission and storage) electric sector infrastructure; fossil fuel, uranium, and biomass fuel costs; and plant operations and maintenance expenditures. The analysis evaluates three specific benefits: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use. It also analyzes two other impacts, renewable energy workforce and economic development, and natural gas price suppression. This analysis finds that the benefits or renewable energy used to meet RPS polices exceed the costs, even when considering the highest cost and lowest benefit outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

National Economic Value Assessment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Volume I

The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce household fuel expenditures by substituting electricity for gasoline while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum imports. A scenario approach is employed to provide insights into the long-term economic value of increased PEV market growth across the United States. The analytic methods estimate fundamental costs and benefits associated with an economic allocation of PEVs across households based upon household driving patterns, projected vehicle cost and performance attributes, and simulations of a future electricity grid. To explore the full technological potential of PEVs and resulting demands on the electricity grid, very high PEV market growth projections from previous studies are relied upon to develop multiple future scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NREL Offshore Balance-of-System Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has investigated the potential for 20% of nationwide electricity demand to be generated from wind by 2030 and, more recently, 35% by 2050. Achieving this level of wind power generation may require the development and deployment of offshore wind technologies. DOE (2008) has indicated that reaching these 2030 and 2050 scenarios could result in approximately 10% and 20%, respectively, of wind energy generation to come from offshore resources. By the end of 2013, 6.5 gigawatts of offshore wind were installed globally. The first U.S. project, the Block Island Wind Farm off the coast of Rhode Island, has recently begun operations. One of the major reasons that offshore wind development in the United States is lagging behind global trends is the high capital expenditures required. An understanding of the costs and associated drivers of building a commercial-scale offshore wind plant in the United States will inform future research and help U.S. investors feel more confident in offshore wind development. In an effort to explain these costs, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed the Offshore Balance-of-System model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impacts of the EISA 2007 Energy Efficiency Standard on General Service Lamps

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007), requires that, effective beginning January 1, 2020, the Secretary of Energy shall prohibit the sale of any general service lamp (GSL) that does not meet a minimum efficacy standard of 45 lumens per watt. This is referred to as the EISA 2007 backstop. The U.S. Department of Energy recently revised the definition of the term GSL to include certain lamps that were either previously excluded or not explicitly mentioned in the EISA 2007 definition. For this subset of GSLs, we assess the impacts of the EISA 2007 backstop on national energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and consumer expenditures. To estimate these impacts, we projected the energy use, purchase price, and operating cost of representative lamps purchased during a 30-year analysis period, 2020-2049, for cases in which the EISA 2007 backstop does and does not take effect; the impacts of the backstop are then given by the difference between the two cases. In developing the projection model, we also performed the most comprehensive assessment to date of usage patterns and lifetime distributions for the analyzed lamp types in the United States. There is substantial uncertainty in the estimated impacts, which arises from uncertainty in the speed and extent of the market conversion to solid state lighting technology that would occur in the absence of the EISA 2007 backstop. In our central estimate we find that the EISA 2007 backstop results in significant energy savings of 27 quads and consumer net present value of $120 billion (at a seven percent discount rate) for lamps shipped between 2020 and 2049, and carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 540 million metric tons by 2030 for those GSLs not explicitly included in the EISA 2007 definition of a GSL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Testing the Feasibility of a Low-Cost Network Performance Measurement Infrastructure

Todays science collaborations depend on reliable, high performance networks, but monitoring the end-to-end performance of a network can be costly and difficult. The most accurate approaches involve using measurement equipment in many locations, which can be both expensive and difficult to manage due to immobile or complicated assets. The perfSONAR framework facilitates network measurement making management of the tests more reasonable. Traditional deployments have used over-provisioned servers, which can be expensive to deploy and maintain. As scientific network uses proliferate, there is a desire to instrument more facets of a network to better understand trends. This work explores low cost alternatives to assist with network measurement. Benefits include the ability to deploy more resources quickly, and reduced capital and operating expenditures. Finally, we present candidate platforms and a testing scenario that evaluated the relative merits of four types of small form factor equipment to deliver accurate performance measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lifecycle Industry GreenHouse gas, Technology and Energy through the Use Phase (LIGHTEnUP) – Analysis Tool User’s Guide

The LIGHTEnUP Analysis Tool (Lifecycle Industry GreenHouse gas, Technology and Energy through the Use Phase) has been developed for The United States Department of Energy’s (U.S. DOE) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) to forecast both the manufacturing sector and product life-cycle energy consumption implications of manufactured products across the U.S. economy. The tool architecture incorporates publicly available historic and projection datasets of U.S. economy-wide energy use including manufacturing, buildings operations, electricity generation and transportation. The tool requires minimal inputs to define alternate scenarios to business-as-usual projection data. The tool is not an optimization or equilibrium model and therefore does not select technologies or deployment scenarios endogenously. Instead, inputs are developed exogenous to the tool by the user to reflect detailed engineering calculations, future targets and goals, or creative insights. The tool projects the scenario’s energy, CO 2 emissions, and energy expenditure (i.e., economic spending to purchase energy) implications and provides documentation to communicate results. The tool provides a transparent and uniform system of comparing manufacturing and use-phase impacts of technologies. The tool allows the user to create multiple scenarios that can reflect a range of possible future outcomes. However, reasonable scenarios require careful attention to assumptions and details about the future. This tool is part of an emerging set of AMO’s life cycle analysis (LCA) tool such as the Material Flows the Industry (MFI) tool, and the Additive Manufacturing LCA tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗