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At least 325 records · Page 18

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗

Imaging Sensor Flight and Test Equipment Software

The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is one of the components onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and was designed to detect and locate lightning over the tropics. The LIS flight code was developed to run on a single onboard digital signal processor, and has operated the LIS instrument since 1997 when the TRMM satellite was launched. The software provides controller functions to the LIS Real-Time Event Processor (RTEP) and onboard heaters, collects the lightning event data from the RTEP, compresses and formats the data for downlink to the satellite, collects housekeeping data and formats the data for downlink to the satellite, provides command processing and interface to the spacecraft communications and data bus, and provides watchdog functions for error detection. The Special Test Equipment (STE) software was designed to operate specific test equipment used to support the LIS hardware through development, calibration, qualification, and integration with the TRMM spacecraft. The STE software provides the capability to control instrument activation, commanding (including both data formatting and user interfacing), data collection, decompression, and display and image simulation. The LIS STE code was developed for the DOS operating system in the C programming language. Because of the many unique data formats implemented by the flight instrument, the STE software was required to comprehend the same formats, and translate them for the test operator. The hardware interfaces to the LIS instrument using both commercial and custom computer boards, requiring that the STE code integrate this variety into a working system. In addition, the requirement to provide RTEP test capability dictated the need to provide simulations of background image data with short-duration lightning transients superimposed. This led to the development of unique code used to control the location, intensity, and variation above background for simulated lightning strikes at user-selected locations.

Freestone, Kathleen↗

Resilience Modeling in Complex Engineered Systems with Human-Machine Interactions

In recent times, there has been a growing interest in resilience-based design. Resilience-based design operates on the concept that failures and unexpected events will happen, and when they occur, complex engineered systems should be able to operate within acceptable bounds and recover reasonably. Humans can contribute to the resilience of a system by quickly detecting unforeseen events and taking corrective measures. To this effect, researchers have proposed guidelines and design approaches that can help promote human-system resilience. However, there is no early design stage tool to validate if a system is indeed resilient after applying these guidelines and design methods. In this research, we integrate the Human Error and Functional Failure Reasoning (HEFFR) framework into the fmdtools toolkit to enable designers to model the combined (machine, human, and joint) failures, including their propagation and dynamic effects, during early design stages. This integrated tool also allows designers to model the effects of performance shaping factors, team dynamics, and human-machine interactions in systems of systems. A demonstrative example of a remotely operated rover is explored to demonstrate how this approach can be applied to understand resilience in complex engineered systems with human interactions.

Lukman Irshad↗

Chance-Constrained System Identification of Nonlinear Discrete Systems with Safety and Stability Guarantees

This paper presents a discrete-time nonlinear system identification method while satisfying the stability and safety properties of the system with high probability. An Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is used with a Gaussian assumption on the function reconstruction error. A quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP) is developed with probabilistic safety and stability constraints that are only required to be satisfied at sampled points inside the invariant region. The proposed method is validated using two simulation examples: a two degrees-of-freedom (DoF) robot manipulator with constraints on joint angles whose trajectories are guaranteed to remain inside a safe set and on motion trajectories data of a hand-drawn shape.

Iman Salehi↗

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Single-pixel interior filling function approach for detecting and correcting errors in particle tracking

We present a general method for detecting and correcting biases in the outputs of particle-tracking experiments. Our approach is based on the histogram of estimated positions within pixels, which we term the single-pixel interior filling function (SPIFF). We use the deviation of the SPIFF from a uniform distribution to test the veracity of tracking analyses from different algorithms. Unbiased SPIFFs correspond to uniform pixel filling, whereas biased ones exhibit pixel locking, in which the estimated particle positions concentrate toward the centers of pixels. Although pixel locking is a well-known phenomenon, we go beyond existing methods to show how the SPIFF can be used to correct errors. Here, the key is that the SPIFF aggregates statistical information from many single-particle images and localizations that are gathered over time or across an ensemble, and this information augments the single-particle data. We explicitly consider two cases that give rise to significant errors in estimated particle locations: undersampling the point spread function due to small emitter size and intensity overlap of proximal objects. In these situations, we show how errors in positions can be corrected essentially completely with little added computational cost. Additional situations and applications to experimental data are explored in SI Appendix. In the presence of experimental-like shot noise, the precision of the SPIFF-based correction achieves (and can even exceed) the unbiased Cramér–Rao lower bound. We expect the SPIFF approach to be useful in a wide range of localization applications, including single-molecule imaging and particle tracking, in fields ranging from biology to materials science to astronomy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Importance of Being Inconsistent

We review the role of self-consistency in density functional theory (DFT). We apply a recent analysis to both Kohn–Sham and orbital-free DFT, as well as to partition DFT, which generalizes all aspects of standard DFT. In each case, the analysis distinguishes between errors in approximate functionals versus errors in the self-consistent density. This yields insights into the origins of many errors in DFT calculations, especially those often attributed to self-interaction or delocalization error. In many classes of problems, errors can be substantially reduced by using better densities. Finally, we review the history of these approaches, discuss many of their applications, and give simple pedagogical examples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Generation of gear tooth surfaces by application of CNC machines

This study will demonstrate the importance of application of computer numerically controlled (CNC) machines in generation of gear tooth surfaces with new topology. This topology decreases gear vibration and will extend the gear capacity and service life. A preliminary investigation by a tooth contact analysis (TCA) program has shown that gear tooth surfaces in line contact (for instance, involute helical gears with parallel axes, worm gear drives with cylindrical worms, etc.) are very sensitive to angular errors of misalignment that cause edge contact and an unfavorable shape of transmission errors and vibration. The new topology of gear tooth surfaces is based on the localization of bearing contact, and the synthesis of a predesigned parabolic function of transmission errors that is able to absorb a piecewise linear function of transmission errors caused by gear misalignment. The report will describe the following topics: description of kinematics of CNC machines with six degrees of freedom that can be applied for generation of gear tooth surfaces with new topology. A new method for grinding of gear tooth surfaces by a cone surface or surface of revolution based on application of CNC machines is described. This method provides an optimal approximation of the ground surface to the given one. This method is especially beneficial when undeveloped ruled surfaces are to be ground. Execution of motions of the CNC machine is also described. The solution to this problem can be applied as well for the transfer of machine tool settings from a conventional generator to the CNC machine. The developed theory required the derivation of a modified equation of meshing based on application of the concept of space curves, space curves represented on surfaces, geodesic curvature, surface torsion, etc. Condensed information on these topics of differential geometry is provided as well.

Litvin, F. L.↗

The effect of errors in the assignment of the transmission functions on the accuracy of the thermal sounding of the atmosphere

In order to test the error of calculation in assumed values of the transmission function for Soviet and American radiometers sounding the atmosphere thermally from orbiting satellites, the assumptions of the transmission calculation is varied with respect to atmospheric CO2 content, transmission frequency, and atmospheric absorption. The error arising from variations of the assumptions from the standard basic model is calculated.

Timofeyev, Y. M.↗

Modeling the Errors of a Time Series Algorithm for Retrieving Soil Moisture in the NISAR Mission

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) - Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission plan to launch a SAR operating at L- and S-band with a 12-day repeat frequency. A global soil moisture product at 200 m spatial resolution derived from 200 m NISAR radar measurements is currently under development. Although several retrieval algorithms are being investigated, this paper focuses on a “time series ratio” retrieval approach. In order to understand and assess the performance of this algorithm, an error model has been developed and is reported in this paper. The model is applied to examine errors as a function of the instrument characteristics and for a given location. Initial progress in including vegetation effects and in predicting errors as a function of spatial location is also described.

NISAR↗

A function space approach to state and model error estimation for elliptic systems

An approach is advanced for the concurrent estimation of the state and of the model errors of a system described by elliptic equations. The estimates are obtained by a deterministic least-squares approach that seeks to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors, or equivalently, to find the vector of smallest norm subject to linear constraints in a suitably defined function space. The minimum norm solution can be obtained by solving either a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind for the case with continuously distributed data or a related matrix equation for the problem with discretely located measurements. Solution of either one of these equations is obtained in a batch-processing mode in which all of the data is processed simultaneously or, in certain restricted geometries, in a spatially scanning mode in which the data is processed recursively. After the methods for computation of the optimal estimates are developed, an analysis of the second-order statistics of the estimates and of the corresponding estimation error is conducted. Based on this analysis, explicit expressions for the mean-square estimation error associated with both the state and model error estimates are then developed.

Rodriguez, G.↗

A function space approach to state and model error estimation for elliptic systems

An approach is advanced for the concurrent estimation of the state and of the model errors of a system described by elliptic equations. The estimates are obtained by a deterministic least-squares approach that seeks to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors, or equivalently, to find the vector of smallest norm subject to linear constraints in a suitably defined function space. The minimum norm solution can be obtained by solving either a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind for the case with continuously distributed data or a related matrix equation for the problem with discretely located measurements. Solution of either one of these equations is obtained in a batch-processing mode in which all of the data is processed simultaneously or, in certain restricted geometries, in a spatially scanning mode in which the data is processed recursively. After the methods for computation of the optimal esimates are developed, an analysis of the second-order statistics of the estimates and of the corresponding estimation error is conducted. Based on this analysis, explicit expressions for the mean-square estimation error associated with both the state and model error estimates are then developed. While this paper focuses on theoretical developments, applications arising in the area of large structure static shape determination are contained in a closely related paper (Rodriguez and Scheid, 1982).

Rodriguez, G.↗

Effect of atmospheric turbulence on the bit error probability of a space to ground near infrared laser communications link using binary pulse position modulation and an avalanche photodiode detector

The effect of atmospheric turbulence on the bit error rate of a space-to-ground near infrared laser communications link is investigated, for a link using binary pulse position modulation and an avalanche photodiode detector. Formulas are presented for the mean and variance of the bit error rate as a function of signal strength. Because these formulas require numerical integration, they are of limited practical use. Approximate formulas are derived which are easy to compute and sufficiently accurate for system feasibility studies, as shown by numerical comparison with the exact formulas. A very simple formula is derived for the bit error rate as a function of signal strength, which requires only the evaluation of an error function. It is shown by numerical calculations that, for realistic values of the system parameters, the increase in the bit error rate due to turbulence does not exceed about thirty percent for signal strengths of four hundred photons per bit or less. The increase in signal strength required to maintain an error rate of one in 10 million is about one or two tenths of a db.

Safren, H. G.↗

Virtual space and 2-dimensional effects in perspective displays

When interpreting three dimensional spatial relationships presented on a two dimensional display surface, the viewer is required to mentally reconstruct the original information. This reconstruction is influenced by both the perspective geometry of the displayed image and the viewer's eye position relative to the display. In a study which manipulated these variables, subjects judged the azimuth direction of a target object relative to a reference object fixed in the center of a perspective display. The results support a previously developed model which predicted that the azimuth judgement error would be a sinusoidal function of stimulus azimuth. The amplitude of this function was correctly predicted to be systematically modulated by both the perspective geometry of the image and the viewer's eye position relative to the screen. Interaction of the two components of the model, the virtual space effect and the 3D-to-2D projection effect, predicted the relative amplitudes of the sinusoidal azimuth error functions for the various conditions of the experiment. Mean azimuth judgements in some directions differed by as much as 25 degrees as a result of different combinations of eye position and image geometry. The results illustrate the need to consider the effects of perspective geometry when designing spatial information instruments, and show the model to be a reliable predictor of average performance.

Mcgreevy, M. W.↗

Global temperature variations

Lower stratospheric temperature anomalies from MSU channel 4 were compared to ten years of radiosonde data to validate the satellite record, and the results were submitted for publication. Various assumed stratospheric weighting profiles were tested to determine whether the theoretical channel 4 weighting function had significant errors. It was found that the real weighting function is slightly sharper than the theoretical weighting function. We also found evidence for a step-function cooling in the radiosonde record during 1982, a period when two satellites were operating with no evidence of changes in the satellites. Lower tropospheric bulk temperature datasets continue to be sent to climate researchers and modelers, as well as to the Climate Analysis Center (CAC). The CAC is also implementing our MSU software to be able to do the MSU processing at their site. Drift in MSU channel 3 is being quantified and corrected to allow it to be used together with channel 2 for a better lowertropospheric gridpoint temperature product. A new global oceanic precipitation dataset has been produced from MSU channel 1 data, and compared to ten years of global raingage data.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Adjoint-Based, Three-Dimensional Error Prediction and Grid Adaptation

Engineering computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and design applications focus on output functions (e.g., lift, drag). Errors in these output functions are generally unknown and conservatively accurate solutions may be computed. Computable error estimates can offer the possibility to minimize computational work for a prescribed error tolerance. Such an estimate can be computed by solving the flow equations and the linear adjoint problem for the functional of interest. The computational mesh can be modified to minimize the uncertainty of a computed error estimate. This robust mesh-adaptation procedure automatically terminates when the simulation is within a user specified error tolerance. This procedure for estimating and adapting to error in a functional is demonstrated for three-dimensional Euler problems. An adaptive mesh procedure that links to a Computer Aided Design (CAD) surface representation is demonstrated for wing, wing-body, and extruded high lift airfoil configurations. The error estimation and adaptation procedure yielded corrected functions that are as accurate as functions calculated on uniformly refined grids with ten times as many grid points.

Park, Michael A.↗

An approach to the analysis of performance of quasi-optimum digital phase-locked loops.

An approach to the analysis of performance of quasi-optimum digital phase-locked loops (DPLL's) is presented. An expression for the characteristic function of the prior error in the state estimate is derived, and from this expression an infinite dimensional equation for the prior error variance is obtained. The prior error-variance equation is a function of the communication system model and the DPLL gain and is independent of the method used to derive the DPLL gain. Two approximations are discussed for reducing the prior error-variance equation to finite dimension. The effectiveness of one approximation in analyzing DPLL performance is studied.

Polk, D. R.↗