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At least 325 records · Page 18

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗

Aerodynamic characteristics of an F-8 aircraft configuration with a variable camber wing at Mach numbers from 0.70 to 1.15

A 0.1-scale model of an F-8 aircraft was tested in the Ames 14-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel at Mach numbers from 0.7 to 1.15. Angle of attack was varied from -2 deg. to 22 deg. at sideslip angles of 0 deg and -5 deg. Reynolds number, dictated by the atmospheric stagnation pressure, varied with Mach number from 3.4 to 4.0 million based on mean aerodynamic chord. The model was configured with a wing designed to simulate the downward deflection of the leading and trailing edges of an advanced-technology-conformal-variable camber wing. This wing was also equipped with conventional (simple hinge) flaps. In addition, the model was tested with the basic F-8 wing to provide a reference for extrapolating to flight data. In general, at all Mach numbers the use of conformal flap deflections at both the leading edge and trailing edge resulted in slightly higher maximum lift coefficients and lower drag coefficients than with the use of simple hinge flaps. There were also found to be small improvements in the pitching-moment characteristics with the use of conformal flaps.

Boltz, F. W.↗

Feasibility Demonstration of a 445N High-Performance Rocket Engine

A program to demonstrate the feasibility of a high-performance 445 Newton (100 lb(sub f)) NTO/NMH rocket engine is presented. An existing high-performance injector was coupled with three different thrust chambers to acquire test data for the program. A stainless-steel sea-level chamber was used for test stand checkout, calibration and initial injector performance determinations. Two high-temperature iridium lined rhenium thrust chambers were used to determine altitude performance and durability. The first chamber was tested for a total duration of 3381 s and the second was tested for a total duration of 15,000 s with no measurable degradation. Extrapolation of epsilon = 44:1 experimental data to the recommended epsilon = 467:1 expansion nozzle, using the JANNAF methodology, showed that a performance of 3138 to 3167 N-s/kg (320 to 323 lb(sub f-s)/lb(sub m) could be achieved with the present design. Recommendations are presented which would allow a redesigned engine to achieve the 3195 N-s/kg (326 lb(sub f-s)/lb(sub m)) program goal.

Appel, Marshall A.↗

An N+3 Technology Level Reference Propulsion System

An N+3 technology level engine, suitable as a propulsion system for an advanced single-aisle transport, was developed as a reference cycle for use in technology assessment and decision-making efforts. This reference engine serves three main purposes: it provides thermodynamic quantities at each major engine station, it provides overall propulsion system performance data for vehicle designers to use in their analyses, and it can be used for comparison against other proposed N+3 technology-level propulsion systems on an equal basis. This reference cycle is meant to represent the expected capability of gas turbine engines in the N+3 timeframe given reasonable extrapolations of technology improvements and the ability to take full advantage of those improvements.

Jones, Scott M.↗

Space radiation incident on SATS missions

A special orbital radiation study was conducted in order to evaluate mission encountered energetic particle fluxes. This information is to be supplied to the project subsystem engineers for their guidance in designing flight hardware to withstand the expected radiation levels. Flux calculations were performed for a set of 20 nominal trajectories placed at several altitudes and inclinations. Temporal variations in the ambient electron environment were considered and partially accounted for. Magnetic field calculations were performed with a current field model, extrapolated to the tentative SATS launch epoch with linear time terms. Orbital flux integrations ware performed with the latest proton and electron environment models, using new computational methods. The results are presented in graphical and tabular form. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for a one year mission at selected integral energies ranging from 10 to 100 Mev, calculated for a year of maximum solar activity during the next solar cycle.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Molecular Sieve Bench Testing and Computer Modeling

The design of an efficient four-bed molecular sieve (4BMS) CO2 removal system for the International Space Station depends on many mission parameters, such as duration, crew size, cost of power, volume, fluid interface properties, etc. A need for space vehicle CO2 removal system models capable of accurately performing extrapolated hardware predictions is inevitable due to the change of the parameters which influences the CO2 removal system capacity. The purpose is to investigate the mathematical techniques required for a model capable of accurate extrapolated performance predictions and to obtain test data required to estimate mass transfer coefficients and verify the computer model. Models have been developed to demonstrate that the finite difference technique can be successfully applied to sorbents and conditions used in spacecraft CO2 removal systems. The nonisothermal, axially dispersed, plug flow model with linear driving force for 5X sorbent and pore diffusion for silica gel are then applied to test data. A more complex model, a non-darcian model (two dimensional), has also been developed for simulation of the test data. This model takes into account the channeling effect on column breakthrough. Four FORTRAN computer programs are presented: a two-dimensional model of flow adsorption/desorption in a packed bed; a one-dimensional model of flow adsorption/desorption in a packed bed; a model of thermal vacuum desorption; and a model of a tri-sectional packed bed with two different sorbent materials. The programs are capable of simulating up to four gas constituents for each process, which can be increased with a few minor changes.

Mohamadinejad, Habib↗

Determination of Extrapolation Distance with Measured Pressure Signatures from Two Low-Boom Models

A study to determine a limiting distance to span ratio for the extrapolation of near-field pressure signatures is described and discussed. This study was to be done in two wind-tunnel facilities with two wind-tunnel models. At this time, only the first half had been completed, so the scope of this report is limited to the design of the models, and to an analysis of the first set of measured pressure signatures. The results from this analysis showed that the pressure signatures measured at separation distances of 2 to 5 span lengths did not show the desired low-boom shapes. However, there were indications that the pressure signature shapes were becoming 'flat-topped'. This trend toward a 'flat-top' pressure signatures shape was seen to be a gradual one at the distance ratios employed in this first series of wind-tunnel tests.

Mack, Robert J.↗

High-accuracy waveforms for black hole-neutron star systems with spinning black holes

The availability of accurate numerical waveforms is an important requirement for the creation and calibration of reliable waveform models for gravitational wave astrophysics. For black hole-neutron star binaries, very few accurate waveforms are however publicly available. Most recent models are calibrated to a large number of older simulations with good parameter space coverage for low-spin non-precessing binaries but limited accuracy, and a much smaller number of longer, more recent simulations limited to non-spinning black holes. In this paper, we present long, accurate numerical waveforms for three new systems that include rapidly spinning black holes, and one precessing configuration. Here, we study in detail the accuracy of the simulations, and in particular perform for the first time in the context of BHNS binaries a detailed comparison of waveform extrapolation methods to the results of Cauchy Characteristic Extraction. The new waveforms have <0.1rad phase errors during inspiral, rising to ~(0.2-0.4)rad errors at merger, and ≲1% error in their amplitude. We compute the faithfulness of recent analytical models to these numerical results, and find that models specifically designed for BHNS binaries perform well (F>0.99) for binaries seen face-on. For edge-on observations, particularly for precessing systems, disagreements between models and simulations increase, and models that include precession and/or higher-order modes start to perform better than BHNS models that currently lack these features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Germanium and germanium-diamond bolometers operated at 4.2K, 2.0K, 1.2K, 0.3K and 0.1K

The design, construction, and performance of state of the art germanium and germanium-diamond bolometers operated at 4.2, 2.0, 1.2, and 0.3 K are discussed. These detectors have a broad range of applications, and are particularly important for the long wavelength (far infrared to millimeter) regions. Current results may be extrapolated to lower temperatures and higher levels of performance. A system which will operate at 0.1 K using a He-4-He-3 dilution refrigerator is under development.

Johnson, C.↗

First demonstration of a TES based cryogenic Li 2 MoO 4 detector for neutrinoless double beta decay search

Cryogenic calorimetric experiments to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0vββ) are highly competitive, scalable and versatile in isotope. The largest planned detector array, CUPID, is comprised of about 1500 individual Li 2 100 MoO 4 detector modules with a further scale up envisioned for a follow up experiment (CUPID-1T). In this article, we present a novel detector concept targeting this second stage with a low impedance TES based readout for the Li 2 MoO 4 absorber that is easily mass-produced and lends itself to a multiplexed readout. We present the detector design and results from a first prototype detector operated at the NEXUS shallow underground facility at Fermilab. The detector is a 2-cm-side cube with 21 g mass that is strongly thermally coupled to its readout chip to allow rise-times of ~0.5 ms. This design is more than one order of magnitude faster than present NTD based detectors and is hence expected to effectively mitigate backgrounds generated through the pile-up of two independent two neutrino decay events coinciding close in time. Together with a baseline resolution of 1.95 keV (FWHM) these performance parameters extrapolate to a background index from pile-up as low as 5 • 10 –6 counts/keV/kg/yr in CUPID size crystals. The detector was calibrated up to the MeV region showing sufficient dynamic range for 0vββ searches. In combination with a SuperCDMS HVeV detector this setup also allowed us to perform a precision measurement of the scintillation time constants of Li 2 MoO 4 , which showed a primary component with a fast O(20 μs) time scale. Similar content being viewe

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results)

A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions. An economic experiment was carried out which will monitor citrus growers' decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events and will establish the economic benefits of improved temperature forecasts. A summary is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done. Specifically, the experiment design is described in detail as are the developed data collection methodology and procedures, sampling plan, data reduction techniques, cost and loss models, establishment of frost severity measures, data obtained from citrus growers, National Weather Service, and Federal Crop Insurance Corp., resulting protection costs and crop losses for the control group sample, extrapolation of results of control group to the Florida citrus industry and the method for normalization of these results to a normal or average frost season so that results may be compared with anticipated similar results from test group measurements.

Source record↗

Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (an update of control group results)

The economic experiment, the results obtained to date and the work which still remains to be done are summarized. Specifically, the experiment design is described in detail as are the developed data collection methodology and procedures, sampling plan, data reduction techniques, cost and loss models, establishment of frost severity measures, data obtained from citrus growers, National Weather Service and Federal Crop Insurance Corp. Resulting protection costs and crop losses for the control group sample, extrapolation of results of control group to the Florida citrus industry and the method for normalization of these results to a normal or average frost season so that results may be compared with anticipated similar results from test group measurements are discussed.

Braen, C.↗

Full-Span Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) Overview and 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel Test

Most helicopter data trends cannot be extrapolated to tiltrotors because blade geometry and aerodynamic behavior, as well as rotor and fuselage interactions, are significantly different for tiltrotors. A tiltrotor model has been developed to investigate the aeromechanics of tiltrotors, to develop a comprehensive database for validating tiltrotor analyses, and to provide a research platform for supporting future tiltrotor designs. The Full-Span Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Model (FS TRAM) is a dual-rotor, powered aircraft model with extensive instrumentation for measurement of structural and aerodynamic loads. This paper will present the Full-Span TRAM test capabilities and the first set of data obtained during a 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel test conducted in late 2000 at NASA Ames Research Center. The Full-Span TRAM is a quarter-scale representation of the V-22 Osprey aircraft, and a heavily instrumented NASA and U.S. Army wind tunnel test stand. Rotor structural loads are monitored and recorded for safety-of-flight and for information on blade loads and dynamics. Left and right rotor balance and fuselage balance loads are monitored for safety-of-flight and for measurement of vehicle and rotor aerodynamic performance. Static pressure taps on the left wing are used to determine rotor/wing interactional effects and rotor blade dynamic pressures measure blade airloads. All of these measurement capabilities make the FS TRAM test stand a unique and valuable asset for validation of computational codes and to aid in future tiltrotor designs. The Full-Span TRAM was tested in the NASA Ames Research Center 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel from October through December 2000. Rotor and vehicle performance measurements were acquired in addition to wing pressures, rotor acoustics, and Laser Light Sheet (LLS) flow visualization data. Hover, forward flight, and airframe (rotors off) aerodynamic runs were performed. Helicopter-mode data were acquired during angle of attack and thrust sweeps for a variety of tunnel speeds. Wake geometry images were acquired using LLS photographs and suggest dual tip vortex formation at low thrust conditions. The full paper will include comparisons to isolated-rotor TRAM data acquired at the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW) in 1998. The FS TRAM has been established as a valuable national asset for tiltrotor research. Data reduction and analysis of the 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel test results are underway. Follow-on testing of the FS TRAM is currently being planned for the NASA Ames 80- by 120-Foot Wind Tunnel in late 2001.

McCluer, Megan S.↗

High-Temperature Structures, Adhesives, and Advanced Thermal Protection Materials for Next-Generation Aeroshell Design

The next generation of planetary exploration vehicles will rely heavily on robust aero-assist technologies, especially those that include aerocapture. This paper provides an overview of an ongoing development program, led by NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and aimed at introducing high-temperature structures, adhesives, and advanced thermal protection system (TPS) materials into the aeroshell design process. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate TPS materials that can withstand the higher heating rates of NASA's next generation planetary missions, and to validate high-temperature structures and adhesives that can reduce required TPS thickness and total aeroshell mass, thus allowing for larger science payloads. The effort described consists of parallel work in several advanced aeroshell technology areas. The areas of work include high-temperature adhesives, high-temperature composite materials, advanced ablator (TPS) materials, sub-scale demonstration test articles, and aeroshell modeling and analysis. The status of screening test results for a broad selection of available higher-temperature adhesives is presented. It appears that at least one (and perhaps a few) adhesives have working temperatures ranging from 315-400 C (600-750 F), and are suitable for TPS-to-structure bondline temperatures that are significantly above the traditional allowable of 250 C (482 F). The status of mechanical testing of advanced high-temperature composite materials is also summarized. To date, these tests indicate the potential for good material performance at temperatures of at least 600 F. Application of these materials and adhesives to aeroshell systems that incorporate advanced TPS materials may reduce aeroshell TPS mass by 15% - 30%. A brief outline is given of work scheduled for completion in 2006 that will include fabrication and testing of large panels and subscale aeroshell test articles at the Solar-Tower Test Facility located at Kirtland AFB and operated by Sandia National Laboratories. These tests are designed to validate aeroshell manufacturability using advanced material systems, and to demonstrate the maintenance of bondline integrity at realistically high temperatures and heating rates. Finally, a status is given of ongoing aeroshell modeling and analysis efforts which will be used to correlate with experimental testing, and to provide a reliable means of extrapolating to performance under actual flight conditions. The modeling and analysis effort includes a parallel series of experimental tests to determine TSP thermal expansion and other mechanical properties which are required for input to the analysis models.

Collins, Timothy J.↗

Preliminary Investigation of Certain Laminar-Flow Airfoils for Application at High Speeds and Reynolds Numbers

In order to extend the useful range of Reynolds numbers of airfoils designed to take advantage of the extensive laminar boundary layers possible in an air stream of low turbulence, tests were made of the NACA 2412-34 and 1412-34 sections in the NACA low-turbulence tunnel. Although the possible extent of the laminar boundary layer on these airfoils is not so great as for specially designed laminar-flow airfoils, it is greater than that for conventional airfoils, and is sufficiently extensive so that at Reynolds numbers above 11,000,000 the laminar region is expected to be limited by the permissible 'Reynolds number run' and not by laminar separation as is the case with conventional airfoils. Drag measurements by the wake-survey method and pressure-distribution measurements were made at several lift coefficients through a range of Reynolds numbers up to 11,400,000. The drag scale-effect curve for the NACA 1412-34 is extrapolated to a Reynolds number of 30,000,000 on the basis of theoretical calculations of the skin friction. Comparable skin-friction calculations were made for the NACA 23012. The results indicate that, for certain applications at moderate values of the Reynolds number, the NACA 1412-34 and 2412-34 airfoils offer some advantages over such conventional airfoils as the NACA 23012. The possibility of maintaining a more extensive laminar boundary layer on these airfoils should result in a small drag reduction, and the absence of pressure peaks allows higher speeds to be reached before the compressibility burble is encountered. At lower Reynold numbers, below about 10,000,000, these airfoils have higher drags than airfoils designed to operate with very extensive laminar boundary layers.

Jacobs, E.N.↗

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗