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At least 325 records · Page 18

Measurement of the $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$ and tH production rates in the H → $\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}$ decay channel using proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

An analysis of the production of a Higgs boson (H) in association with a top quark-antiquark pair ($\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$) or a single top quark (tH) is presented. The Higgs boson decay into a bottom quark-antiquark pair (H → $\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}$) is targeted, and three different final states of the top quark decays are considered, defined by the number of leptons (electrons or muons) in the event. The analysis utilises proton-proton collision data collected at the CERN LHC with the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV in 2016–2018, which correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The observed $\sqrt{s}$ production rate relative to the standard model expectation is 0.33 ± 0.26 = 0.33 ± 0.17(stat) ± 0.21(syst). Additionally, the $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$ production rate is determined in intervals of Higgs boson transverse momentum. An upper limit at 95% confidence level is set on the tH production rate of 14.6 times the standard model prediction, with an expectation of ${19.3}_{-6.0}^{+9.2}$. Finally, constraints are derived on the strength and structure of the coupling between the Higgs boson and the top quark from simultaneous extraction of the $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$ and tH production rates, and the results are combined with those obtained in other Higgs boson decay channels.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Probing the chiral magnetic wave with charge-dependent flow measurements in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC

The Chiral Magnetic Wave (CMW) phenomenon is essential to provide insights into the strong interaction in QCD, the properties of the quark-gluon plasma, and the topological characteristics of the early universe, offering a deeper understanding of fundamental physics in high-energy collisions. Measurements of the charge-dependent anisotropic flow coefficients are studied in Pb-Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV to probe the CMW. In particular, the slope of the normalized difference in elliptic (v 2 ) and triangular (v 3 ) flow coefficients of positively and negatively charged particles as a function of their event-wise normalized number difference, is reported for inclusive and identified particles. The slope ${r}_3^{\textrm{Norm}}$ is found to be larger than zero and to have a magnitude similar to ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$, thus pointing to a large background contribution for these measurements. Furthermore, ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$ can be described by a blast wave model calculation that incorporates local charge conservation. In addition, using the event shape engineering technique yields a fraction of CMW (f CMW ) contribution to this measurement which is compatible with zero. This measurement provides the very first upper limit for f CMW , and in the 10–60% centrality interval it is found to be 26% (38%) at 95% (99.7%) confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters from the T2K experiment using $$3.6\times 10^{21}$$ protons on target

Abstract The T2K experiment presents new measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters using $$19.7(16.3)\times 10^{20}$$ 19.7 ( 16.3 ) × 10 20 protons on target (POT) in (anti-)neutrino mode at the far detector (FD). Compared to the previous analysis, an additional $$4.7\times 10^{20}$$ 4.7 × 10 20 POT neutrino data was collected at the FD. Significant improvements were made to the analysis methodology, with the near-detector analysis introducing new selections and using more than double the data. Additionally, this is the first T2K oscillation analysis to use NA61/SHINE data on a replica of the T2K target to tune the neutrino flux model, and the neutrino interaction model was improved to include new nuclear effects and calculations. Frequentist and Bayesian analyses are presented, including results on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 and the impact of priors on the $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}$$ δ CP measurement. Both analyses prefer the normal mass ordering and upper octant of $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}$$ sin 2 θ 23 with a nearly maximally CP-violating phase. Assuming the normal ordering and using the constraint on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 from reactors, $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}=0.561^{+0.021}_{-0.032}$$ sin 2 θ 23 = 0 . 561 - 0.032 + 0.021 using Feldman–Cousins corrected intervals, and $$\varDelta {}m^2_{32}=2.494_{-0.058}^{+0.041}\times 10^{-3}~\text {eV}^2$$ Δ m 32 2 = 2 . 494 - 0.058 + 0.041 × 10 - 3 eV 2 using constant $$\varDelta \chi ^{2}$$ Δ χ 2 intervals. The CP-violating phase is constrained to $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}=-1.97_{-0.70}^{+0.97}$$ δ CP = - 1 . 97 - 0.70 + 0.97 using Feldman–Cousins corrected intervals, and $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}=0,\pi $$ δ CP = 0 , π is excluded at more than 90% confidence level. A Jarlskog invariant of zero is excluded at more than $$2\sigma $$ 2 σ credible level using a flat prior in $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}},$$ δ CP , and just below $$2\sigma $$ 2 σ using a flat prior in $$\sin \delta _{\textrm{CP}}.$$ sin δ CP . When the external constraint on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 is removed, $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}=28.0^{+2.8}_{-6.5}\times 10^{-3},$$ sin 2 θ 13 = 28 . 0 - 6.5 + 2.8 × 10 - 3 , in agreement with measurements from reactor experiments. These results are consistent with previous T2K analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Creation of the VADER Code in SCALE [Abstract]

The VADER (Validation Analysis Data Evaluation Resource) is a new module in SCALE 6.3 that has been derived from the legacy USLSTATS program. VADER is a tool that allows the determination of bias and bias uncertainty for criticality safety computational methods. The older USLSTATS program, written in Java, existed outside of SCALE and provided tools to calculate only the confidence band with administrative margin (sometimes called USL-1) and the single-sided uniform width closed interval (USL-2). For normality testing it only offered a crude chi- squared normality test that had no user-configurable options and presented a simple pass/no-pass functionality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scale Invariance of Hot Spot Formation in TATB High Explosives

Shock-induced detonation of insensitive high explosives based on 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene starts with formation of hot spots at microstructural defects but has eluded atomistic modeling treatment at micron length scales. To this end, we performed multimicron scale all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of hot spots that form during the collapse of cylindrical pores with diameters between 10 and 300 nm. Our MD simulations show that hot spots formed at pores larger than 20 nm exhibit temperature fields with scale-invariant features for sizes up to at least 300 nm. Through a continuum-based grain-scale modeling framework, we span and extend beyond the size scales currently accessible to MD and find that hot spot scale invariance is a general feature that arises when the mechanical strength is insensitive to strain rate. Finally, our results demonstrate the applicability of all-atom MD to simulate the complicated dynamical evolution of micron-sized systems and bolster confidence in insights from MD simulations of materials that exhibit strength with negligible rate dependence over the relevant intervals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is to apply weights to a spectroscopic sample, so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work, we estimate the selection bias in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example data set but the implications generalize to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of up to Δz ∼ 0.04 in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals (Δz ∼ 0.015 in the case most relevant to DES). To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the Δz = 0.005−0.05 level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for Associated Production of a Higgs Boson and Two Vector Bosons via Vector-Boson Scattering at s = 13 TeV

A search for Higgs boson ( H ) production in association with two vector bosons ( V = W , Z ) via vector-boson scattering (VBS) is presented using proton-proton collision data collected at s = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . Events containing two forward jets consistent with VBS, a large-radius jet from the decay of a boosted H to a pair of b quarks, and zero, one, or two charged leptons coming from V decays are selected. The process is excluded at 95% confidence level for observed (expected) values of the V V H H coupling modifier κ 2 V outside the interval 0.40 < κ 2 V < 1.60 ( 0.34 < κ 2 V < 1.66 ), assuming standard model values for all other couplings, thus establishing a novel probe of the V V H H interaction. Constraints are also set on the individual κ 2 W and κ 2 Z coupling modifiers and on the allowed region in the κ 2 W - κ 2 Z plane.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

Tracking cropland transitions: A comparative analysis of U.S. land cover change data

There are a growing number of land cover data available for the conterminous United States, supporting various applications ranging from biofuel regulatory decisions to habitat conservation assessments. These datasets vary in their source information, frequency of data collection and reporting, land class definitions, categorical detail, and spatial scale and time intervals of representation. These differences limit direct comparison, contribute to disagreements among studies, confuse stakeholders, and hamper our ability to confidently report key land cover trends in the U.S. Here we assess changes in cropland derived from the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) dataset from the U.S. Geological Survey and compare them with analyses of three established land cover datasets across the coterminous U.S. from 2008-2017: (1) the National Resources Inventory (NRI), (2) a dataset Lark et al. 2020 derived from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and (3) a dataset from Potapov et al. 2022. LCMAP reports more stable cropland and less stable noncropland in all comparisons, likely due to its more expansive definition of cropland which includes managed grasslands (pasture and hay). Despite these differences, net cropland expansion from all four datasets was comparable (5.18-6.33 million acres), although the geographic extent and type of conversion differed. LCMAP projected the largest cropland expansion in the southern Great Plains, whereas other datasets projected the largest expansion in the northwestern and central Midwest. Most of the pixel-level disagreements (86%) between LCMAP and Lark et al. 2020 were due to definitional differences among datasets, whereas the remainder (14%) were from a variety of causes. Cropland expansion in the LCMAP likely reflects conversions of more natural areas, whereas cropland expansion in other data sources also captures conversion of managed pasture to cropland. The particular research question considered (e.g., habitat versus soil carbon) should influence which data source is more appropriate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Search for the $ {B}_s^0$ → μ + μ – $\gamma$ decay

A search for the fully reconstructed ${B}_s^0$ → μ + μ – γ decay is performed at the LHCb experiment using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.4 fb –1 . No significant signal is found and upper limits on the branching fraction in intervals of the dimuon mass are set ${\displaystyle \begin{array}{cc}\mathcal{B}\left({B}_s^0\to {\mu}^{+}{\mu}^{-}\gamma \right)<4.2\times {10}^{-8},& m\left({\mu}^{+}{\mu}^{-}\right)\in \left[2{m}_{\mu },1.70\right]\textrm{GeV}/{c}^2,\\ {}\mathcal{B}\left({B}_s^0\to {\mu}^{+}{\mu}^{-}\gamma \right)<7.7\times {10}^{-8},&\ m\left({\mu}^{+}{\mu}^{-}\right)\in \left[\textrm{1.70,2.88}\right]\textrm{GeV}/{c}^2,\\ {}\mathcal{B}\left({B}_s^0\to {\mu}^{+}{\mu}^{-}\gamma \right)<4.2\times {10}^{-8},& m\left({\mu}^{+}{\mu}^{-}\right)\in \left[3.92,{m}_{B_s^0}\right]\textrm{GeV}/{c}^2,\end{array}}\\{}$ at 95% confidence level. Additionally, upper limits are set on the branching fraction in the [2m μ , 1.70] GeV/c 2 dimuon mass region excluding the contribution from the intermediate Φ(1020) meson, and in the region combining all dimuon-mass intervals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for Higgs Boson Decay to a Charm Quark-Antiquark Pair in Proton-Proton Collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying to a charm quark-antiquark pair, $H → c\bar{c}$, produced in association with a leptonically decaying $V (W \text{or} Z)$ boson is presented. The search is performed with proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV}$ collected by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 . Novel charm jet identification and analysis methods using machine learning techniques are employed. The analysis is validated by searching for $Z → c\bar{c}$ in $VZ$ events, leading to its first observation at a hadron collider with a significance of 5.7 standard deviations. The observed (expected) upper limit on $σ(VH)\mathscr{B}(H → c\bar{c}$) is 0.94 (0.50$^{+0.22}_{– 0.15}$)pb at 95% confidence level (C.L.), corresponding to 14 (7.6$^{+3.4}_{–2.3}$) times the standard model prediction. For the Higgs-charm Yukawa coupling modifier, $κ_c$, the observed (expected) 95% C.L. interval is 1.1 < |$κ_c$| < 5.5 (|$κ_c$| < 3.4), the most stringent constraint to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PI3NN: Out-of-distribution-aware Prediction Intervals from Three Neural Networks

We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every given confidence level and suffer from the crossing issue in calculating multiple PIs. Second, they usually rely on customized loss functions with extra sensitive hyperparameters for which fine tuning is required to achieve a well-calibrated PI. Third, they usually underestimate uncertainties of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples leading to over-confident PIs. Our PI3NN method calculates PIs from linear combinations of three NNs, each of which is independently trained using the standard mean squared error loss. The coefficients of the linear combinations are computed using root-finding algorithms to ensure tight PIs for a given confidence level. We theoretically prove that PI3NN can calculate PIs for a series of confidence levels without retraining NNs and it completely avoids the crossing issue. Additionally, PI3NN does not introduce any unusual hyperparameters resulting in a stable performance. Furthermore, we address OOD identification challenge by introducing an initialization scheme which provides reasonably larger PIs of the OOD samples than those of the in-distribution samples. Benchmark and real-world experiments show that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and OOD samples identification.

Liu, Siyan↗

Search for Higgs boson pairs decaying to WW*WW*, WW* ττ , and ττττ in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

The results of a search for Higgs boson pair (HH) production in the WW*WW*, WW*$ττ$, and $ττττ$ decay modes are presented. The search uses 138 fb –1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV from 2016 to 2018. Analyzed events contain two, three, or four reconstructed leptons, including electrons, muons, and hadronically decaying tau leptons. No evidence for a signal is found in the data. Upper limits are set on the cross section for nonresonant HH production, as well as resonant production in which a new heavy particle decays to a pair of Higgs bosons. For nonresonant production, the observed (expected) upper limit on the cross section at 95% confidence level (CL) is 21.3 (19.4) times the standard model (SM) prediction. The observed (expected) ratio of the trilinear Higgs boson self-coupling to its value in the SM is constrained to be within the interval –6.9 to 11.1 (–6.9 to 11.7) at 95% CL, and limits are set on a variety of new-physics models using an effective field theory approach. The observed (expected) limits on the cross section for resonant HH production range from 0.18 to 0.90 (0.08 to 1.06) pb at 95% CL for new heavy-particle masses in the range 250–1000 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for an exotic decay of the Higgs boson into a Z boson and a pseudoscalar particle in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for an exotic decay of the Higgs boson to a Z boson and a light pseudoscalar particle (a), decaying to a pair of leptons and a pair of photons, respectively, is presented. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of s = 13 TeV , collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . The analysis probes pseudoscalar masses m a between 1 and 30 GeV, leading to two pairs of well-isolated leptons and photons. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the Higgs boson production cross section times its branching fraction to two leptons and two photons. The observed (expected) limits are in the range of 1.1–17.8 (1.7–17.9)fb within the probed m a interval. An excess of data above the expected standard model background with a local (global) significance of 2.6 (1.3) standard deviations is observed for a mass hypothesis of m a = 3 GeV . Limits on models involving axion-like particles, formulated as an effective field theory, are also reported.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Distinct Atmospheric Mode for California Precipitation

The hydrologic cycle in California is strongly influenced by wet-season (November–April) precipitation. Here, we demonstrate the existence of an influential mode of North Pacific atmospheric pressure variability that regulates wet-season precipitation variability over both northern and southern California. This mode, named as the “California precipitation mode” (CPM), is statistically distinct from other well-known modes of pressure variability such as the Pacific-North American pattern. In addition to controlling wet-season mean precipitation, positive days of the CPM coincide with up to 90% of the extreme (>99th percentile) precipitation days and 76% of detected atmospheric rivers (ARs) days, while the negative days correspond with 60% of the dry days. CMIP6 models capture the CPM remarkably well, including its statistical separation from the other well-known modes of pressure variability. The models also reproduce the CPM's strong association with California wet-season precipitation, giving confidence in the models’ dynamics relating to regional hydrologic extremes. However, the models also exhibit biases in regional hydrologic extremes. The CPM is a useful way to understand the origins of those biases and select the more credible models for further analysis: Models with unrealistically strong gradients in the CPM pressure pattern generally oversimulate larger wet extremes and produce excessively long dry intervals in the historical period. Thus the hydrologic biases can be traced to the particular aspects of North Pacific atmospheric dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant Using Gravitational-wave Events from the First Three LIGO/Virgo Observing Runs and the DESI Legacy Survey

We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant H 0 using a sample of well-localized gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs as dark standard sirens. In the case of dark standard sirens, a unique host galaxy is not identified, and the redshift information comes from the distribution of potential host galaxies. From the third LIGO/Virgo observing run detections, we add the asymmetric-mass binary black hole GW190412 and the high-confidence GW candidates S191204r, S200129m, and S200311bg to the sample of dark standard sirens analyzed in Palmese et al. Our sample contains the top 20% (based on localization) GW events and candidates to date with significant coverage by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Survey. We combine the H 0 posterior for eight dark siren events, finding H 0 = $79.8^{+19.1}_{-12.8}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest density interval) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20, 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result shows that a combination of eight well-localized dark sirens combined with an appropriate galaxy catalog is able to provide an H 0 constraint that is competitive (~20% versus 18% precision) with a single bright standard siren analysis (i.e., assuming the electromagnetic counterpart) using GW170817. When combining the posterior with that from GW170817, we obtain H 0 = $72.77^{+11.0}_{-7.55}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result is broadly consistent with recent H 0 estimates from both the cosmic microwave background and supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗