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NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗

NASA NTRS2003

Compact Interconnection Networks Based on Quantum Dots

Architectures that would exploit the distinct characteristics of quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA) have been proposed for digital communication networks that connect advanced digital computing circuits. In comparison with networks of wires in conventional very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuitry, the networks according to the proposed architectures would be more compact. The proposed architectures would make it possible to implement complex interconnection schemes that are required for some advanced parallel-computing algorithms and that are difficult (and in many cases impractical) to implement in VLSI circuitry. The difficulty of implementation in VLSI and the major potential advantage afforded by QCA were described previously in Implementing Permutation Matrices by Use of Quantum Dots (NPO-20801), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 25, No. 10 (October 2001), page 42. To recapitulate: Wherever two wires in a conventional VLSI circuit cross each other and are required not to be in electrical contact with each other, there must be a layer of electrical insulation between them. This, in turn, makes it necessary to resort to a noncoplanar and possibly a multilayer design, which can be complex, expensive, and even impractical. As a result, much of the cost of designing VLSI circuits is associated with minimization of data routing and assignment of layers to minimize crossing of wires. Heretofore, these considerations have impeded the development of VLSI circuitry to implement complex, advanced interconnection schemes. On the other hand, with suitable design and under suitable operating conditions, QCA-based signal paths can be allowed to cross each other in the same plane without adverse effect. In principle, this characteristic could be exploited to design compact, coplanar, simple (relative to VLSI) QCA-based networks to implement complex, advanced interconnection schemes. The proposed architectures require two advances in QCA-based circuitry beyond basic QCA-based binary-signal wires described in the cited prior article. One of these advances would be the development of QCA-based wires capable of bidirectional transmission of signals. The other advance would be the development of QCA circuits capable of high-impedance state outputs. The high-impedance states would be utilized along with the 0- and 1-state outputs of QCA.

Fijany, Amir↗

NASA NTRS1992

A Backscatter Moessbauer Spectrometer (BaMS) for use on Mars

The use of Moessbauer spectroscopy for in situ analysis on the surface of Mars was proposed and the design and implementation of a backscatter Moessbauer spectrometer (BaMS) instrument suitable for planetary missions to the surfaces of Mars (MESUR), the Moon (Artemis and lunar outpost), asteroids, or other solid solar system objects is discussed. The BaMS instrument is designed to be capable of analysis of a sample for the mineralogy of its iron-bearing phases without any sample preparation. A requirement of lander missions to Mars is instrumentation for in situ mineralogical analyses. Such analyses provide data needed for primary characterization as to the type of surface materials present and by inference the processes that formed and subsequently modified them. For purposes of providing diagnostic information about naturally occurring materials, the element iron is particularly important because it is abundant and multivalent (primarily 0, +2, and +3 oxidation states). Knowledge of the oxidation state of iron and its distribution among iron-bearing mineralogies tightly constrains the types of materials present. The pivotal role of iron was already recognized in 1978 by COMPLEX, who recommended development of flight instruments that would identify mineralogy and the oxidation state of iron in planetary surface materials. The near-term U.S. strategy for the exploration of Mars is the MESUR (Mars Environmental SURvey) program, which entails emplacement of a network of small, long-lived surface landers. For the Moon, BaMS was recommended as part of a three-instrument landed payload for the Artemis missions, targeted for 1997. BaMS would prospect for ilmenite, an oxygen resource material, and provide data to assess the maturity of lunar soil. Because instrumental characteristics are low mass, low volume, and low power consumption, BaMS is suitable for implementation on even small landers and rovers, as are being envisioned in MESUR and Artemis concepts. In addition to providing highly diagnostic data, a BaMS analyzer is inherently simple and, as is highly desirable for remote operation, no sample preparation is required.

Agresti, D. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

First results of GPS time transfer to Australia

A Global Positioning System time transfer unit built by NBS under contract to JPL was installed at Tidbinbilla Deep Space Communications Complex of the NASA Deep Space Network in June 1983. It has been used to estimate the relationship to UTC(USNO MC) of the Tidbinbilla frequency and time system TID(FTS) based on a hydrogen maser, and thence to estimate the performance of the Australian free-running time scale UTC(AUS). Data from the first three months has been analyzed three ways: by two-hop common view using JPL as intermediary; by long-arc interpolation of measurements against space vehicle clocks; and by long-arc interpolation of GPS-Time results. Residuals from a single quadratic fit through three months of UTC(USNO MC) - TID (FTS) results were white noise with standard error 15 ns, and a flying clock measurement gave 70 ns agreement. A straight line fit through results UTC(USNO MC) - UTC (AUS) gave 90 ns standard error and 120 bns agreement. It is proposed to use the GPS measurements to steer UTS(AUS) to UTC(BIH), and to rename the existing time scale TA(AUS).

Luck, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A microwave holography methodology for diagnostics and performance improvement for large reflector antennas

This microwave holography technique utilizes the Fourier transform relation between the complex far field radiation pattern of an antenna and the complex aperture field distribution. Resulting aperture phase and amplitude distribution data can be used to precisely characterize various crucial performance parameters, including panel alignment, panel shaping, subreflector position, antenna aperture illumination, directivity at various frequencies, and gravity deformation effects. The methodology of data processing presented here was successfully applied to the Deep Space Network (DSN) 34-m beam waveguide antennas. The antenna performance was improved at all operating frequencies by reducing the main reflector mechanical surface rms error to 0.43 mm. At Ka-band (32 GHz), the estimated improvement is 4.1 dB, resulting in an aperture efficiency of 52 percent. The performance improvement was verified by efficiency measurements and additional holographic measurements.

Rochblatt, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Microwave antenna holography

Rochblatt, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evidence for Hesperian Impact-Induced Hydrothermalism on Mars

Several hydrated silicate deposits on Mars are observed within craters and are interpreted as excavated Noachian material. Toro crater (71.8 deg E, 17.0 deg N), located on the northern edge of the Syrtis Major Volcanic Plains, shows spectral and morphologic evidence of impact-induced hydrothermal activity. Spectroscopic observations were used to identify extensive hydrated silicate deposits, including prehnite, chlorites, smectites, and opaline material, a suite of phases that frequently results from hydrothermal alteration in terrestrial craters and also expected on Mars from geochemical modeling of hydrothermal environments. When combined with altimetry and high-resolution imaging data, these deposits appear associated predominantly with the central uplift and with portions of the northern part of the crater floor. Detailed geologic mapping of these deposits reveals geomorphic features that are consistent with hydrothermal activity that followed the impact event, including vent-like and conical mound structures, and a complex network of tectonic structures caused by fluid interactions such as fractures and joints. The crater age has been calculated from the cumulative crater size-frequency distributions and is found to be Early Hesperian. The evidence presented here provides support for impact-induced hydrothermal activity in Toro crater, that extends phyllosilicate formation processes beyond the Noachian era.

Marzo, Giuseppe A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Behavioral Mapless Navigation Using Rings

This paper presents work on the development and implementation of a novel approach to robotic navigation. In this system, map-building and localization for obstacle avoidance are discarded in favor of moment-by-moment behavioral processing of the sonar sensor data. To accomplish this, we developed a network of behaviors that communicate through the passing of rings, data structures that are similar in form to the sonar data itself and express the decisions of each behavior. Through the use of these rings, behaviors can moderate each other, conflicting impulses can be mediated, and designers can easily connect modules to create complex emergent navigational techniques. We discuss the development of a number of these modules and their successful use as a navigation system in the Trinity omnidirectional robot.

Monroe, Randall P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Computer-Assisted Monitoring Of A Complex System

Propulsion System Advisor (PSA) computer-based system assists engineers and technicians in analyzing masses of sensory data indicative of operating conditions of space shuttle propulsion system during pre-launch and launch activities. Designed solely for monitoring; does not perform any control functions. Although PSA developed for highly specialized application, serves as prototype of noncontrolling, computer-based subsystems for monitoring other complex systems like electric-power-distribution networks and factories.

Beil, Bob J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

HTMT-class Latency Tolerant Parallel Architecture for Petaflops Scale Computation

Computational Aero Sciences and other numeric intensive computation disciplines demand computing throughputs substantially greater than the Teraflops scale systems only now becoming available. The related fields of fluids, structures, thermal, combustion, and dynamic controls are among the interdisciplinary areas that in combination with sufficient resolution and advanced adaptive techniques may force performance requirements towards Petaflops. This will be especially true for compute intensive models such as Navier-Stokes are or when such system models are only part of a larger design optimization computation involving many design points. Yet recent experience with conventional MPP configurations comprising commodity processing and memory components has shown that larger scale frequently results in higher programming difficulty and lower system efficiency. While important advances in system software and algorithms techniques have had some impact on efficiency and programmability for certain classes of problems, in general it is unlikely that software alone will resolve the challenges to higher scalability. As in the past, future generations of high-end computers may require a combination of hardware architecture and system software advances to enable efficient operation at a Petaflops level. The NASA led HTMT project has engaged the talents of a broad interdisciplinary team to develop a new strategy in high-end system architecture to deliver petaflops scale computing in the 2004/5 timeframe. The Hybrid-Technology, MultiThreaded parallel computer architecture incorporates several advanced technologies in combination with an innovative dynamic adaptive scheduling mechanism to provide unprecedented performance and efficiency within practical constraints of cost, complexity, and power consumption. The emerging superconductor Rapid Single Flux Quantum electronics can operate at 100 GHz (the record is 770 GHz) and one percent of the power required by convention semiconductor logic. Wave Division Multiplexing optical communications can approach a peak per fiber bandwidth of 1 Tbps and the new Data Vortex network topology employing this technology can connect tens of thousands of ports providing a bi-section bandwidth on the order of a Petabyte per second with latencies well below 100 nanoseconds, even under heavy loads. Processor-in-Memory (PIM) technology combines logic and memory on the same chip exposing the internal bandwidth of the memory row buffers at low latency. And holographic storage photorefractive storage technologies provide high-density memory with access a thousand times faster than conventional disk technologies. Together these technologies enable a new class of shared memory system architecture with a peak performance in the range of a Petaflops but size and power requirements comparable to today's largest Teraflops scale systems. To achieve high-sustained performance, HTMT combines an advanced multithreading processor architecture with a memory-driven coarse-grained latency management strategy called "percolation", yielding high efficiency while reducing the much of the parallel programming burden. This paper will present the basic system architecture characteristics made possible through this series of advanced technologies and then give a detailed description of the new percolation approach to runtime latency management.

Sterling, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2023

High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) User Guide Version 1.0

Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) has been identified as a key technology to enable and facilitate the development and growth of future space networks. Classically, space communications networks are collections of disparate links that are manually managed either point-to-point or use space relays. The accelerating accessibility of space enables a new scaling of space nodes, yet both the manual management of configurations and scheduling and the lack of structure connecting links precisely prohibit scaling. This challenge gives rise to newer and larger classes of communications needs that are met by DTN, which must overcome the disconnection, disruption, latency, and mobility featured in space communications systems. DTN joins the underlying links as an overlay, and can be made to communicate over any protocol stack. The core actions of DTN are store, carry, and forward, where data are stored instead of dropped if there is no immediately available outduct. It does this by taking the DTN unit of data, bundles, and providing necessary layers to adapt these bundles to the underlying transport protocols of choice; these are called convergence layers. DTN's Bundle Protocol (BP) can then be used on top of terrestrial protocol stacks, such as TCP/IP, as well as protocols for space, such as LTP/AOS, all in the same network. For emphasis it is noted that bundles can be of essentially any size, and hence this convergence to lower layers of choice is necessary. Existing DTN implementations have operated in constrained environments with limited resources, resulting in low data speeds. However, as various technologies have advanced, data transfer rates and efficiency have advanced, which has pushed the need for a DTN implementation for ground systems and for spacecraft that is performance-oriented in order to not impose an unnecessary bottleneck. High-rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) takes advantage of modern hardware platforms to substantially reduce latency and improve throughput compared to today’s DTN operations. The HDTN implementation maintains interoperability with existing deployments of DTN that conform to IETF RFCs 4838, 5050, and 9171. At the same time, HDTN defines a new data format better suited to higher-rate operation. It defines and adopts a massively parallel pipelined and message-oriented architecture, allowing the system to scale gracefully as its resources increase. HDTN’s architecture also supports hooks to replace various processing pipeline elements with specialized hardware accelerators. This offers improved Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) characteristics while reducing development complexity and cost.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗

NASA NTRS2019

Understanding Machine Learning in Earth Science: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Machine learning (ML) is being increasingly utilized in Earth science research. Benefits of ML include efficiency, reduction of human error, and ability to extract hidden patterns within data. However, the mutual lack of each other’s domain knowledge by ML and Earth science stands as a barrier to timely and effective implementation. Earth science, in particular, faces challenges in generating sample data, compared to those of traditional ML problems such as face recognition or stock predictions, where data is abundant and not lacking in ground truth, which is necessary for labeling. Earth science data are more varying in formats, such as HDF5 and image resolutions, and are not standardized across instruments, even within a given Earth science discipline. Previous studies have been done to outline the specific challenges that Earth science faces with ML, while others have focused on using existing publications to mine information efficiently. Other resources such as Scikit-Learn have developed decision trees for choosing appropriate machine learning algorithms, but application within Earth science subjects becomes much more complex. For the current study, we propose a methodology and tool that aids in implementation of ML in Earth science using natural language processing (NLP). Our work comprises three main parts: (1) analyzing existing publications related to ML and Earth science, using natural language processing: (2) extracting from the publications information on ML models subjects in Earth Science: and (3) visualizing the extracted relationships as a network graph. The resulting network graph should aid the Earth science communities in applying optimal ML algorithms and guiding data preparation through visualization of similar studies. The network graph and analysis of document similarity will be the basis of our next step, which is to develop a decision tree for selecting optimal machine learning methodologies for specified Earth science applications.

Zheng, Laura↗

NASA NTRS1993

Making tomorrow's mistakes today: Evolutionary prototyping for risk reduction and shorter development time

In the early days of JPL's solar system exploration, each spacecraft mission required its own dedicated data system with all software applications written in the mainframe's native assembly language. Although these early telemetry processing systems were a triumph of engineering in their day, since that time the computer industry has advanced to the point where it is now advantageous to replace these systems with more modern technology. The Space Flight Operations Center (SFOC) Prototype group was established in 1985 as a workstation and software laboratory. The charter of the lab was to determine if it was possible to construct a multimission telemetry processing system using commercial, off-the-shelf computers that communicated via networks. The staff of the lab mirrored that of a typical skunk works operation -- a small, multi-disciplinary team with a great deal of autonomy that could get complex tasks done quickly. In an effort to determine which approaches would be useful, the prototype group experimented with all types of operating systems, inter-process communication mechanisms, network protocols, packet size parameters. Out of that pioneering work came the confidence that a multi-mission telemetry processing system could be built using high-level languages running in a heterogeneous, networked workstation environment. Experience revealed that the operating systems on all nodes should be similar (i.e., all VMS or all PC-DOS or all UNIX), and that a unique Data Transport Subsystem tool needed to be built to address the incompatibilities of network standards, byte ordering, and socket buffering. The advantages of building a telemetry processing system based on emerging industry standards were numerous: by employing these standards, we would no longer be locked into a single vendor. When new technology came to market which offered ten times the performance at one eighth the cost, it would be possible to attach the new machine to the network, re-compile the application code, and run. In addition, we would no longer be plagued with lack of manufacturer support when we encountered obscure bugs. And maybe, hopefully, the eternal elusive goal of software portability across different vendors' platforms would finally be available. Some highlights of our prototyping efforts are described.

Friedman, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2008

Technology Infusion of CodeSonar into the Space Network Ground Segment (RII07): Software Assurance Symposium Technical Summary

Presents a source code analysis tool (CodeSonar) for use in the Space Network Ground Segment. The Space Network requires 99.9% proficiency and 97.0% availability of systems. Software has historically accounted for an annual average of 28% of the Space Network loss of availability and proficiency. CSCI A and CSCI B account for 42% of the previous eight months of software data loss. The technology infusion of CodeSonar into the Space Network Ground segment is meant to aid in determining the impact of the technology on the project both in the expenditure of effort and the technical results of the technology. Running a CodeSonar analysis and performing a preliminary review of the results averaged 3.5 minutes per finding (approximately 20 hours total). An additional 40 hours is estimated to analyze the 37 findings deemed too complex for the initial review. Using CodeSonar's tools to suppress known non-problems, delta tool runs will not repeat findings that have been marked as non-problems, further reducing the time needed for review. The 'non-interesting' finding rate of 70% is a large number, but filtering, search, and detailed contextual features of CodeSonar reduce the time per finding. Integration of the tool into the build process may also provide further savings by preventing developers from having to configure and operate the tool separately. These preliminary results show the tool to be easy to use and incorporate into the engineering process. These findings also provide significant potential improvements in proficiency and availability on the part of the software. As time-to-fix data become available a better cost trade can be made on person hours saved versus tool cost. Selective factors may be necessary to determine where best to apply CodeSonar to balance cost and benefits.

Benson, Markland J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Satellite Precipitation and Cloud Experiment (SPACE)

An experiment plan was formulated to support an investigation of the precipitation processes associated with mesoscale systems and the interaction of rain producing cloud complexes with the meso and macro-scale environment. The field program necessary to accomplish the scientific goals is designed to incorporate satellite information (VIS and IR as well as VAS data), special radiosonde and surface observing capabilities, radar observations of storms development, special observations from aircraft and ground based lightning measurements. The observing network comprises rawinsonde stations located in northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee. A high density raingauge network and the MSFC lightning location network also cover the area. Coordination with NASA U2 and ER2 aircraft programs and with the operational requirements of the microburst severe thunderstorm program can assure the most efficient utilization of the observing resources.

Arnold, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗