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High Performance Approximate Computing

This code repository contains the implementation of the "High-Performance Approximate Computing" (HPAC) toolkit. The toolkit allows you to approximate your own C/C++. The developer uses "pragma's" to annotate code regions as approximate. The compiler extensions lower these pragmas to either compiletime approximate techniques or runtime approximation techniques. At execution time, the implemented runtime system decides which annotated regions it should approximate. HPAC also provides a set of script utilities. The utilities perform a grid search within approximation parameters and performance. The user can analyze the raw data to identify optimal approximation techniques for the application.

Parasyris, Konstantinos↗

Conceptual Model Update of Mercury Sources and Flux at Y-12 and Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge,Tennessee

The interactions between the key processes that control the fate and transport of mercury (Hg) in the sediments, groundwater, and stream water within the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are complex, and many aspects are not well understood. In contaminated environments such as Y-12, conceptual models are frequently developed to aid in visualizing and understanding the dynamic nature of the hydrologic, geochemical, and physical environment. These conceptual models integrate data in an internally consistent manner to understand processes that control the fate and transport of contaminants. Over the past few decades of environmental investigation at Y-12, a number of conceptual models have been developed to identify and define various technical processes at various scales. The main purpose of the activities described in this report is to update the 2011 conceptual model for Upper East Fork Poplar Creek using the most recent Hg concentration and flux data and informed scientific interpretation. Emphasis was placed on improving the previous model by implementing a more detailed spatial and temporal approach to visualize transport pathways in the watershed and trends in flux and concentration over time, and to compare baseflow and stormflow system dynamics. Detailed descriptions of historical and current Hg sources and transport pathways are also provided for the east and west ends of the facility. This conceptual model will allow the US Department of Energy to evaluate past and present remedial activities and provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing remedial responses in a cost-effective and efficient manner. Twenty years ago, Hg flux from Outfall (OF) 200 at the headwaters of East Fork Poplar Creek represented approximately 20% of the overall flux leaving Y-12. By the time of the 2011 conceptual model report, that percentage had increased to 70%–80%. Flux estimates compiled for this report using data from 2009 to 2018 show that OF200 accounted for roughly 60% of the flux leaving Y-12. The relative role of the four storm drain conduits to OF200 appeared similar to 2011, with OF163 being the greatest contributor to downstream flux. An increase in Hg concentrations and flux occurred throughout and downstream of west end storm drains in 2011 in response to a storm drain cleanout. Leading up to the 2011 storm drain cleanout, annual baseflow flux was higher at OF200A6 than at Station 17. From 2011 to 2018, the trend reversed with concentrations and flux being higher at Station 17 than at OF200A6. A spike in concentrations occurred in July 2018, potentially due to a one-time influx of Hg that occurred during COLEX decontamination and decommissioning activities at Y-12. This report includes recommendations for improving our conceptual understanding of Hg sources, transport pathways, and flux at Y-12. Important recommendations include further evaluation of transport pathways, concurrent measurement of Hg concentration and flux under baseflow and stormflow conditions at multiple sites, and research to understand the connections among periphyton and methylmercury concentration, bioavailability, and bioaccumulation. Ongoing facility decontamination and decommissioning efforts, site characterization, remedial actions, and research are facilitating the collection of new Hg data at Y-12. The conceptual model update provided herein takes advantage of the extensive recent Hg sampling to provide an updated assessment of Hg mass balance and support a refined understanding of Hg behavior at or near Y-12. This assessment should assist in future environmental management decisions and in mitigating the impacts of Hg on the surrounding environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

250 kWth Pilot Testing in Support of a 10 MWe Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Demonstration Feasibility Study

The Coal-Direct Chemical Looping (CDCL) process is emerging as a promising technology capable of high efficiency for producing electricity with low cost for carbon capture. In the CDCL process, coal is fully combusted to form carbon dioxide (CO2) and water via reaction with Fe2O3-based oxygen-carrier particles in a moving-bed reducer reactor. During reaction with coal, the Fe2O3 is reduced to form a mixture of Fe and FeO. The reduced particles are then transported to the combustor reactor where they are re-oxidized with air. The oxidation of the Fe and FeO mixture generates heat that can be used to produce steam for power generation. Once the particles are fully regenerated, they are pneumatically recycled to the reducer reactor where another reduction-oxidation (Redox) cycle begins. The Babcock & Wilcox Company (B&W) and The Ohio State University (OSU) have been developing the CDCL technology based on iron-based metal oxide particles circulating in a moving-bed reducer coupled with an entrained-flow combustor. As part of a Phase I effort of a DOE-sponsored project, B&W identified scale-up technology gaps for the coal-direct chemical looping reactor process, most of which fall under the moving-bed reactor design and operation. However, after the Phase I research, B&W concluded that the CDCL technology has the potential of generating electricity while meeting the DOE goals of greater than 90% CO2 capture and less than 35% increase in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). B&W then moved to a Phase II project to design, build and demonstrate the CDCL technology at a 250 kWth capacity. B&W finished the construction and commissioning of the pilot test facility in 2017. The approach used to design a 250 kWth pilot-scale CDCL facility to investigate the technology gaps is presented. Important lessons from the commissioning activities that would transfer to commercial plant start-up are also shared. The findings from the test program are being incorporated into a Pre-FEED study for a 10 MWe large pilot demonstration. Under a separately-funded heat integration project, B&W and OSU are developing a multiphase computational fluid dynamic model (MFIX) of the combustor to quantify heat transfer to embedded steam generation surface, utilizing pinch analysis (ASPEN Energy Analyzer) to identify potential improvements of the heat integration scheme, and developing an integrated dynamic model (ProTRAX) of the steam turbine coupled with the chemical looping process to identify potential start-up and transient operation issues. Under an advanced control system for optimizing operation, B&W is supporting OSU to install a rules-based optimizer (B&W’s FocalPoint) on their 25 kWt bench-scale facility on the OSU West Campus. Finally, B&W and OSU were recently selected to perform a Phase I Feasibility study to evaluate installation of the 10 MWe pilot at the Dover Power & Light Municipal Power Plant in Dover, Ohio. The feasibility study includes compiling an Environmental Information Volume and generating a cost estimate for the design, construction and commissioning of the plant as well as lining up commitments from potential project participants and funding contributors. Updates on each project will be presented. The status of the technology development will be discussed. We focus on the progress made to date towards closing the technology gaps under each project.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Update on Design of 10 MWe Iron-Based Coal Direct Chemical Looping Demonstration Plant

The Coal-Direct Chemical Looping (CDCL) process is emerging as a promising technology capable of high efficiency for producing electricity with low cost for carbon capture. In the CDCL process, coal is fully combusted to form carbon dioxide (CO2) and water via reaction with Fe2O3-based oxygen-carrier particles in a moving-bed reducer reactor. During reaction with coal, the Fe2O3 is reduced to form a mixture of Fe and FeO. The reduced particles are then transported to the combustor reactor where they are re-oxidized with air. The oxidation of the Fe and FeO mixture generates heat that can be used to produce steam for power generation. Once the particles are fully regenerated, they are pneumatically recycled to the reducer reactor where another reduction-oxidation (Redox) cycle begins. The Babcock & Wilcox Company (B&W) and The Ohio State University (OSU) have been developing the CDCL technology based on iron-based metal oxide particles circulating in a moving-bed reducer coupled with an entrained-flow combustor. As part of a Phase I effort of a DOE-sponsored project, B&W identified scale-up technology gaps for the coal-direct chemical looping reactor process, most of which fall under the moving-bed reactor design and operation. However, after the Phase I research, B&W concluded that the CDCL technology has the potential of generating electricity while meeting the DOE goals of greater than 90% CO2 capture and less than 35% increase in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). B&W then moved to a Phase II project to design, build and demonstrate the CDCL technology at a 250 kWth capacity. B&W finished the construction and commissioning of the pilot test facility in 2017. The approach used to design a 250 kWth pilot-scale CDCL facility to investigate the technology gaps is presented. Important lessons from the commissioning activities that would transfer to commercial plant start-up are also shared. The findings from the test program are being incorporated into a Pre-FEED study for a 10 MWe large pilot demonstration. Under a separately-funded heat integration project, B&W and OSU are developing a multiphase computational fluid dynamic model (MFIX) of the combustor to quantify heat transfer to embedded steam generation surface, utilizing pinch analysis (ASPEN Energy Analyzer) to identify potential improvements of the heat integration scheme, and developing an integrated dynamic model (ProTRAX) of the steam turbine coupled with the chemical looping process to identify potential start-up and transient operation issues. Under an advanced control system for optimizing operation, B&W is supporting OSU to install a rules-based optimizer (B&W’s FocalPoint) on their 25 kWt bench-scale facility on the OSU West Campus. Finally, B&W and OSU were recently selected to perform a Phase I Feasibility study to evaluate installation of the 10 MWe pilot at the Dover Power & Light Municipal Power Plant in Dover, Ohio. The feasibility study includes compiling an Environmental Information Volume and generating a cost estimate for the design, construction and commissioning of the plant as well as lining up commitments from potential project participants and funding contributors. Updates on each project will be presented. The status of the technology development will be discussed. We focus on the progress made to date towards closing the technology gaps under each project.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Numerical Simulations of Noisy Variational Quantum Eigensolver Ansatz Circuits

This is a case study of the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) method using numerical simulations to test the influence of noise on the accuracy of the underlying circuit ansatz. We investigate a computational chemistry application of VQE to calculate the electronic ground state and its energy for Sodium Hydride (NaH), a prototypical two-electron problem. Using a one-parameter ansatz derived from unitary coupled cluster (UCC) theory, we simulate the effects of noise on the energy expectation value and variance with respect to the ansatz parameter. These numerical simulations provide insights into the accuracy of the prepared quantum state and the efficiency of the classical optimizer that iteratively refines the ansatz. We conduct a comparative study between analytical results derived for the UCC ansatz in the absence of noise and the noisy numerical simulation results obtained using an isotropic depolarizing noise model for each gate. We also compare the relative increase in noise on logically equivalent UCC ansatz circuits generated by randomized compiling. Notably, we observe that the intrinsic variance in the energy due to the simplicity of the ansatz itself compares with the noise induced by the bare circuit.

Gowrishankar, Meenambika↗

TH-AB-207A-07: Radiation Dose Simulation for a Newly Proposed Dynamic Bowtie Filters for CT Using Fast Monte Carlo Methods

Purpose: Dynamic bowtie filter is an innovative design capable of modulating the X-ray and balancing the flux in the detectors, and it introduces a new way of patient-specific CT scan optimizations. This study demonstrates the feasibility of performing fast Monte Carlo dose calculation for a type of dynamic bowtie filter for cone-beam CT (Liu et al. 2014 9(7) PloS one) using MIC coprocessors. Methods: The dynamic bowtie filter in question consists of a highly attenuating bowtie component (HB) and a weakly attenuating bowtie (WB). The HB is filled with CeCl3 solution and its surface is defined by a transcendental equation. The WB is an elliptical cylinder filled with air and immersed in the HB. As the scanner rotates, the orientation of WB remains the same with the static patient. In our Monte Carlo simulation, the HB was approximated by 576 boxes. The phantom was a voxelized elliptical cylinder composed of PMMA and surrounded by air (44cm×44cm×40cm, 1000×1000×1 voxels). The dose to the PMMA phantom was tallied with 0.15% statistical uncertainty under 100 kVp source. Two Monte Carlo codes ARCHER and MCNP-6.1 were compared. Both used double-precision. Compiler flags that may trade accuracy for speed were avoided. Results: The wall time of the simulation was 25.4 seconds by ARCHER on a 5110P MIC, 40 seconds on a X5650 CPU, and 523 seconds by the multithreaded MCNP on the same CPU. The high performance of ARCHER is attributed to the parameterized geometry and vectorization of the program hotspots. Conclusion: The dynamic bowtie filter modeled in this study is able to effectively reduce the dynamic range of the detected signals for the photon-counting detectors. With appropriate software optimization methods, the accelerator-based (MIC and GPU) Monte Carlo dose engines have shown good performance and can contribute to patient-specific CT scan optimizations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems: Optimization using RAVEN

The energy market supply is under pressure to achieve competing goals, such as minimizing the cost of electricity and greenhouse gas emissions while achieving grid resilience and reliability and meeting regulatory requirements. To study different scenarios for possible evolutions of the energy market that assume a certain renewable penetration and the possible introduction of hybrid nuclear reactors, the HYBRID modeling and simulation project has been initiated by INL. The term hybrid nuclear reactor here refers to nuclear power plants that not only produce electricity, but can also sell heat to an industrial process, like a hydrogen generation or water desalination plant. The RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment) code developed at INL together with the modeling language Modelica (the Dymola compiler is used) have been selected as the main modeling tools for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project. This summary outlines the challenge, presents an overview of the developments in the RAVEN code needed to solve it and shows an illustrative example calculation. The HYBRID modeling and simulation project is a multi laboratory effort, involving research teams from three different U.S. national laboratories, led by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and supported by the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

System Design, Analysis, and Modeling Activities Supporting the DOE Hydrogen Storage Engineering Center of Excellence (HSECoE): Final Project Report

The objective of this project was to identify optimal pathways for successful hydrogen storage system technology through modeling, analysis, and testing support. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (1) performed vehicle simulations of various system configurations to support the overall systems engineering, (2) led the storage system energy analysis and provided the Hydrogen Storage Engineering Center of Excellence (HSECoE) with results to help guide engineering design, and (3) compiled and obtained media engineering properties for the HSECoE.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Rapid multiphase-field model development using a modular free energy based approach with automatic differentiation in MOOSE/MARMOT

In this paper, we present a novel rapid phase-field model development capability using a modular free energy based approach in the finite element based MOOSE framework. The phase-field equations are implemented in a general form as separate code form the model specific data such as the thermodynamic free energy density and mobility functions. This isolates researchers from complicated code and allows them to focus on implementing new material models. In addition, using a native symbolic differentiation algorithm, all required derivatives of the free energy density are automatically determined, removing sources for potential human error, and guaranteeing optimally preconditioned equation systems through fully populated Jacobian matrices. Free energy terms contributing to a phase-field model are abstracted into self contained objects that can be combined at will at simulation run time. Combining multiple chemical and mechanical free energy contributions allows the construction of coupled phase-field, mechanics, and multiphase models. Through just-in-time compilation, we greatly reduce the computational time required to evaluate the differentiated expressions. Lastly, we demonstrate the new capability on a variety of example simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Energy Storage: Cost models

Energy storage technologies offer a promising solution to electric grid stability issues associated with the integration of variable renewable generators. The capability to match the electrical power output to instantaneous fluctuations in grid demand is crucial to ensure continuity of service. Including energy storage capability in an integrated energy system (IES) can provide the flexibility needed to meet variable electric demand and reduce the load following demands place on the reactor. In this report, economic data collected for energy storage (ES) technologies are described to support the objective of assessing the profitability of ES integration within the IES framework. In particular, there is a growing interest in thermal energy storage (TES) given its unique capability for long-duration storage for improving electricity reliability at a low levelized cost. It is common practice to evaluate the total lifetime cost and profitability before commercializing new technologies. In this report we identify and examine the models needed to better understand the economics of thermal energy storage. We extend the TES cost model in RAVEN in the context of a balance of plant (BOP) that incorporates thermal storage. To focus the discussion, following a general overview of the most promising TES technologies, we consider a use case that involves a sensible heat, two-tank, molten-salt system. Structural and operational details are reported to identify the source of construction capital expenditure and operation and maintenance cost. A detailed description of the different cost items is provided as well as the cost scaling with different storage capacity and power ratings for capacity optimization purpose. In addition, the capital expenditure and the recurring cost of representative two-tank, molten salt coupled with concentrated solar plants are provided for readers’ reference. The ES use case is noteworthy as it is in the pilot stage of commercialization. We identify those areas that would benefit from an increased economic focus to obtain a more complete compilation of cost data. We also describe the thermal coupling issues that arise from integration of the two-tank molten salt thermal energy storage system with a BOP, which is the subject of our current research. Some components of costs will need to be evaluated through dedicated technoeconomic analysis in future modeling activities using modeling procedures proposed in this report. With the data presented and the procedures described in this report, sufficiently accurate models can be implemented for the solution of both the power dispatch and the capacity expansion problems within the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Preliminary Enhanced LAW Glass Formulation Algorithm

This report summarizes the Preliminary Enhanced Low-Activity Waste Glass Formulation Algorithm (GFA), its background information, and the calculations it performs. The Preliminary Enhanced Low-Activity Waste GFA is a tool developed in MATLAB to formulate glass for a given waste composition while attempting to maximize waste loading. It is intended for use at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, where nuclear waste will be vitrified into glass. The formulated glass is required to satisfy several processing and product quality constraints. In addition, calculations must account for associated uncertainties in constraint prediction and measurement. The GFA adheres to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory nuclear quality assurance procedures and has been validated and verified. In this second revision to the report, two constraints: the lithium and zirconia target constraints were amended to Table 3.1 and programmed into the algorithm. Additionally, three sections were added. Section 3.2.1 includes the Enhanced LAW Correlation Rules, an addition to the glass optimality criteria. Section 4.0 discusses a stepped process approach taken to ensure the algorithm can adequately react to differences between its recommended output and the actual measurements and transfers made during plant operation, and calculation of specific radionuclide concentrations. Section 5.2 describes changes to the user interaction with the algorithm program including the addition of a graphical user interface and compilation of the software.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

IRIS-GNN: Leveraging Graph Neural Networks for Scheduling on Truly Heterogeneous Runtime Systems

The diversity of accelerators in computer systems poses significant challenges for software developers, such as managing vendor-specific compiler toolchains, code fragmentation requiring different kernel implementations, and performance portability issues. To address these, the Intelligent Runtime System (IRIS) was developed. IRIS works across various systems, from smartphones to supercomputers, enabling automatic performance scaling based on available accelerators. It introduces abstract tasks for seamless execution transitions between accelerators while ensuring memory consistency and task dependencies. Although IRIS simplifies system details, optimal dynamic scheduling still requires user input to understand workload structures. To address this, we introduce a new scheduling policy for IRIS, termed IRIS-GNN, which is the first IRIS hybrid policy that operates in conjunction with the dynamic policies. This policy employs a Graph-Neural Network (GNN) to conduct Graph Classification of any task graphs submitted to IRIS. This GNN analyzes the structure and attributes of the task graph, categorizing it as either locality, concurrency, or mixed. This classification subsequently guides the selection of the dynamic policy used by IRIS. We provide a comparison of the performance of IRIS-GNN against the complete spectrum of IRIS’s dynamic policies, assess the overhead introduced by the GNN within this scheduling framework, and ultimately explore its practical application in real-world scenarios.

Johnston, Beau↗

QASMBench: A Low-Level Quantum Benchmark Suite for NISQ Evaluation and Simulation

The rapid development of quantum computing (QC) in the NISQ era urgently demands a low-level benchmark suite and insightful evaluation metrics for characterizing the properties of prototype NISQ devices, the efficiency of QC programming compilers, schedulers and assemblers, and the capability of quantum system simulators in a classical computer. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a low-level, easy-to-use benchmark suite called QASMBench based on the OpenQASM assembly representation. It consolidates commonly used quantum routines and kernels from a variety of domains including chemistry, simulation, linear algebra, searching, optimization, arithmetic, machine learning, fault tolerance, cryptography, and so on, trading-off between generality and usability. To analyze these kernels in terms of NISQ device execution, in addition to circuit width and depth, we propose four circuit metrics including gate density, retention lifespan, measurement density, and entanglement variance, to extract more insights about the execution efficiency, the susceptibility to NISQ error, and the potential gain from machine-specific optimizations. Applications in QASMBench can be launched and verified on several NISQ platforms, including IBM-Q, Rigetti, IonQ and Quantinuum. For evaluation, we measure the execution fidelity of a subset of QASMBench applications on 12 IBM-Q machines through density matrix state tomography, comprising 25K circuit evaluations. In addition we also compare the fidelity of executions among the IBM-Q machines, the IonQ QPU and the Rigetti Aspen M-1 system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Union: A Unified HW-SW Co-Design Ecosystem in MLIR for Evaluating Tensor Operationson Spatial Accelerators

To meet the extreme compute demands for deep learning across commercial and scientific applications, dataflow accelerators are becoming increasingly popular. While these“domain-specific” accelerators are not fully programmable like CPUs and GPUs, they retain varying levels of flexibility with respect to data orchestration, i.e., dataflow and tiling optimizations to enhance efficiency. There are several challenges when designing new algorithms and mapping approaches to execute the algorithms for a target problem on new hardware. Previous works have addressed these challenges individually. To address this challenge as a whole, in this work, we present an HW-SW co-design ecosystem for spatial accelerators called Union within the popular MLIR compiler infrastructure. Our framework allows exploring different algorithms and their mappings on several accelerator cost models. Union also includes a plug-and-play library of accelerator cost models and mappers which can easily be extended. The algorithms and accelerator cost models are connected via a novel mapping abstraction that captures the map space of spatial accelerators which can be systematically pruned based on constraints from the hardware, workload, and mapper. We demonstrate the value of Union for the community with several case studies which examine offloading different tensor operations (CONV/GEMM/Tensor Contraction) on diverse accelerator architectures using different mapping schemes.

Jeong, Geonhwa↗

20th century changes in carbon isotopes and water-use efficiency: tree-ring-based evaluation of the CLM4.5 and LPX-Bern models

Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio ( δ 13 C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO 2 and climate conditions, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the ratio between the CO 2 partial pressure in the intercellular cavities and the atmosphere ( c i / c a ) and of the ratio of assimilation to stomatal conductance, termed intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We performed isotope-enabled simulations over the industrial period with the land biosphere module (CLM4.5) of the Community Earth System Model and the Land Surface Processes and Exchanges (LPX-Bern) dynamic global vegetation model. Results for C3 tree species show good agreement with a global compilation of δ 13 C measurements on leaves, though modeled 13 C discrimination by C3 trees is smaller in arid regions than measured. A compilation of 76 tree-ring records, mainly from Europe, boreal Asia, and western North America, suggests on average small 20th century changes in isotopic discrimination and in c i / c a and an increase in iWUE of about 27% since 1900. LPX-Bern results match these century-scale reconstructions, supporting the idea that the physiology of stomata has evolved to optimize trade-offs between carbon gain by assimilation and water loss by transpiration. In contrast, CLM4.5 simulates an increase in discrimination and in turn a change in iWUE that is almost twice as large as that revealed by the tree-ring data. Factorial simulations show that these changes are mainly in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . The results suggest that the downregulation of c i / c a and of photosynthesis by nitrogen limitation is possibly too strong in the standard setup of CLM4.5 or that there may be problems associated with the implementation of conductance, assimilation, and related adjustment processes on long-term environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA): A new tool to support appliance energy-efficiency deployment

Appliance energy-efficiency programs are a central component of many countries’ energy-policy portfolios. A major barrier to optimal implementation of these programs is lack of data to determine market baselines, assess the potential for cost-effective energy savings, and track markets over time to evaluate and verify program impacts. To address this gap, we have developed the International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA), a suite of software tools that automatically gathers data that is currently dispersed across various online sources and compiles it into a unified repository of information on efficiency, price, and features for a diversity of appliances and devices in markets around the world. In this article we describe the framework and functionality of IDEA, and we demonstrate its power as a resource for research and policy development related to appliance energy efficiency. Using IDEA data for refrigerators in China and India, we assess the potential for cost-effective energy savings within each market by computing robust indicators that can also be easily compared across different appliances and markets. We find that significant cost-effective savings are available on both markets. We discuss implications for the development of future energy-efficiency deployment programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a “toolbox” of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the “cancer incidence panel”). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Albany v. 3.0

The Albany code is a general-purpose finite element code for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). Albany is a research code that demonstrates how a PDE code can be built by interfacing many of the open-source software libraries that are released under Sandia's Trilinos project. Part of the mission of Albany is to be a testbed for new Trilinos libraries, to refine their methods, usability, and interfaces. Albany includes hooks to optimization and uncertainty quantification algorithms, including those in Trilinos as well as those in the Dakota toolkit. Because of this, Albany is a desirable starting point for new code development efforts that wish to make heavy use of Trilinos. Albany is both a framework and the host for specific finite element applications. These applications have project names, and can be controlled by configuration option when the code is compiled, but are all developed and released as part of the single Albany code base, These include LCM, QCAD, FELIX, Aeras, and ATO applications.

SciDAC↗