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At least 325 records · Page 18

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

All-sky Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature, Water Vapor, Clouds, Trace Gases, and Surface Properties from Operational Hyperspectral IR Sounders

Operational IR sounders such AIRS, CrIS, and IASI provide high quality hyperspectral measurements for weather and climate applications. We will describe a new all-sky Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP). The uniqueness of this product is that it uses all available channels from hyperspectral sounders and the optimal estimation retrieval is done at a single FOV spatial resolution. The SiFSAP includes atmospheric temperature, water vapor, clouds, trace gases, surface skin, and surface emissivity and will be produced operationally at NASA GES DISC. We will describe the core component of the SiFSAP algorithm, which is the Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM), and will show example applications of the SiFSAP product for various atmospheric weather and dynamics studies. We also describe a new Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP), which is derived from spatiotemporally averaged level-1 hyperspectral radiances directly. The ClimFiSP algorithm uses consistent radiative kernels and a robust spectral fingerprinting method. It provides fast and accurate data fusion products from multiple satellite sensors. We have applied this method to both AIRS and CrIS (on SNPP and on NOAA 20) data and generated two decades climate data records for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. The ClimFiSP are being transitioned to NASA data centers for routine generations level-3 products.

pcrtm↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvement of Radiative Fluxes for the CERES FluxByCldTyp Data Product Based on Machine Learning Technique

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) product provides over 20 years of accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) and surface flux data record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. The interaction between clouds and radiation interaction is a key factor that dominate climate feedbacks but is not well understood. To further advance our understanding of the cloud-radiation interaction, a new CERES FluxByCldTyp (FBCT) product has been developed that contains radiative fluxes by cloud-type, which can provide more stringent constraints when validating models and reveal more insight into the interactions between clouds and climate. For CERES partly cloudy and multiple cloud-type footprints, the FBCT product utilizes Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) narrow-band (NB) imager channel radiances partitioned by cloud-type within a CERES footprint to estimate the cloud-type broadband fluxes. The MODIS multi-channel derived broadband fluxes were compared with the CERES observed footprint fluxes and were found to be within 1% and 2.5% for LW and SW, respectively, as well as being mostly free of cloud property dependencies. The FBCT all-sky and clear-sky monthly averaged fluxes were found to be consistent with the CERES SSF1deg product. This study takes advantage of recent progress in machine learning (ML) field by applying deep neural network algorithm to improve fluxes based on MODIS NB radiances. The preliminary study shows ML produce are an improvement over the current FBCT Edition 4 NB2BB algorithm. Furthermore, unlike Ed4 NB2BB, the new ML method convert NB radiances directly to broadband fluxes. For future Ed5, new NB radiances are proposed and used by ML to improve fluxes calculation. Prelimary results show significant LW improvement.

Moguo Sun↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ENSO Tropical Cloud and TOA radiative signatures from the CERES observation

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project now has over 15 years accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. The CERES flux-by-cloud-type dataset, which contains cloud properties and radiative fluxes for 42 cloud types sorted by cloud top pressure and cloud optical depth, is used to investigate the clouds and their associated TOA (top-of-the-atmosphere) fluxes changes over the tropical area during ENSO events during the observed period. Unlike past studies, this study shows the impact of ENSO on cloud properties like optical depth, cloud top effective pressure and temperature and TOA LW and SW fluxes for each sub cloud type. The study reveals the detailed contributions from different cloud types for radiative characteristics during different phases of ENSO. This is especially important for very small net TOA radiative balance due to the cancellation of the fluxes from different cloud types. To further demonstrate the usefulness of this dataset, NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used to simulate the cloud and radiative changes during the period. The model cloud properties are converted to MODIS like cloud properties using modified MODIS simulator. The dataset serves as a more stringent validation of the model for cloud properties and radiative fluxes.

Moguo Sun↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GPCP Version 3.2 Products and Results

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) products address the need for long-term precipitation products that emphasize homogeneity, following Climate Data Record (CDR) principles. The new-generation Version 3.2 provides key improvements over the operational Version 2.3 such as: finer spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5°; wider geosynchronous infrared estimation (58°N-S) upgraded with the PERSIANN-CDR algorithm; upgraded retrievals from selected passive microwave sensors (GPROF algorithm) that calibrate the IR input; revised intercalibrations of TOVS and AIRS data (used at high latitudes); climatologies based on CloudSat, TRMM, and GPM to provide overall calibration by modern satellite estimates; the latest Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation gauge analyses over land areas; regional modifications to the gauge undercatch correction; and IMERG half-hourly data input to the Daily V3.2 product. We will show sample analyses that demonstrate aspects of the Version 3.2 precipitation record, such as the global climatology, the time series for global land and ocean total precipitation and snowfall, and the time series of tropical land and ocean daily precipitation rate histograms. For selected analyses we will show improvements in both the Monthly and Daily products in Version 3.2 compared to the operational Version 2.3. In particular, the climatological zonal profile of precipitation in the Southern Ocean, extending south of 40°S, improves a suspected artifact in V2.3. Similarly, the Daily histograms over ocean in Version 3.2 lack the jump in the predecessor Version 1.3 Daily over ocean at the start of 2009, although a smaller jump is introduced in June 2014. The presentation will conclude with a prospectus for the future satellites/sensors and community datasets necessary to continue computation of a consistent CDR product on the one hand, while also potentially contributing to improvements in the historical record.

Global Precipitation Measurement↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

20-Years of Atmospheric Temperature, Water Vapor, Cloud, and Surface Temperature Anomalies and Trends Derived From Operational Hyperspectral Ir Sounders

Hyperspectral IR sounders such as AIRS on Aqua, CrIS on S-NPP, NOAA20 and JPSS-2, IASI on Metop A, B, and C provide high-quality atmospheric temperature, water, vapor, and greenhouse gas vertical profiles. Additionally, they provide atmospheric cloud properties, surface emissivity, and surface skin temperatures. We have developed two algorithms which can consistently derive these products from multiple IR sounders. The first one is a Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SIFSAP) algorithm and the second one is a Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) algorithm. Compared to current operational AIRS and CrIS Level-2 (L2) algorithms, which perform one retrieval for each 3 by 3 field of views (FOVs) using a cloud-clearing approach, the SiFSAP algorithm, on the other hand, performs one retrieval for each FOV using an all-sky optimal estimation approach. The SiFSAP algorithm retrieves all the above-mentioned atmosphere and surface properties simultaneously including cloud properties with 3-time higher spatial resolution and 9-times more products. The core of the SiFSAP algorithm is an accurate and fast Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM), which can calculate hyperspectral radiance spectra under both clear and cloudy conditions. The PCRTM was developed in the past decade using consistent reference line-by-line radiative transfer model and spectroscopy for hyperspectral sounders such as AIRS, CrIS, IASI, NAST-I, and S-HIS. The SiFSAP retrieval algorithm also uses the same climatology a priori and associated covariances, which makes it ideal for generating high quality products for both weather and climate applications. Climate products are typically derived by performing spatial and temporal averaging of L2 products. It is a time-consuming process to generate L2 data products since AIRS, CrIS, and IASI have millions of observations each day with thousands of spectral channels for each observation. Additionally, differences in L2 retrieval algorithms for different satellite sensors can lead to errors in the climate products. Our ClimFiSP algorithm, which performs retrievals from spatiotemporally averaged L1 hyperspectral radiances directly, will be orders of magnitude faster than traditional method. he ClimFiSP algorithm uses consistent radiative kernels and a robust spectral fingerprinting method. It provides accurate data climate data fusion products from multiple satellite sensors. We have applied this method to both AIRS and CrIS (on SNPP and on NOAA 20) data and generated two decades climate data records for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. Both SiFSAP and ClimFiSP will be available at NASA GES DISC data center for public access.

Xu Liu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Two Decades of Atmospheric and Surface Temperature, Water Vapor, and Cloud Trends Derived from Satellite Remote Sensors

Satellite remote sensor such as Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) provide high-quality atmospheric temperature, water, vapor, and greenhouse gas vertical profiles. Additionally, they provide atmospheric cloud properties, surface emissivity, and surface skin temperatures. We have developed two algorithms which can consistently derive these products from multiple IR sounders. The first one is a Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SIFSAP) algorithm and the second one is a Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) algorithm. Compared to current operational AIRS and CrIS Level-2 (L2) algorithms, which perform one retrieval for each 3 by 3 field of views (FOVs) using a cloud-clearing approach, the SiFSAP algorithm, on the other hand, performs one retrieval for each FOV using an all-sky optimal estimation approach. The SiFSAP algorithm retrieves all the above-mentioned atmosphere and surface properties simultaneously including cloud properties with 3-time higher spatial resolution and 9-times more products. Climate products are typically derived by performing spatial and temporal averaging of L2 products. It is a time-consuming process to generate L2 data products since AIRS, CrIS, and IASI have millions of observations each day with thousands of spectral channels for each observation. Additionally, differences in L2 retrieval algorithms for different satellite sensors can lead to errors in the climate products. Our ClimFiSP algorithm, which performs retrievals from spatiotemporally averaged L1 hyperspectral radiances directly, will be orders of magnitude faster than traditional method. he ClimFiSP algorithm uses consistent radiative kernels and a robust spectral fingerprinting method. It provides accurate data climate data fusion products from multiple satellite sensors. We have applied this method to both AIRS and CrIS (on SNPP and on NOAA 20) data and generated two decades climate data records for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. Both SiFSAP and ClimFiSP will be available at NASA GES DISC data center for public access.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Radiative Fluxes for the CERES FluxByCldTyp Data Product Using Deep Neural Network

Sun, Moguo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Progress Towards a Common CERES Cloud Mask Algorithm for MODIS and VIIRS: Evaluation using CALIOP Data

For over two decades The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has endeavored to produce a long-term global climate data record for detecting changes in the Earth’s radiation budget and to improve understanding of how clouds contribute to those changes. CERES incorporates cloud information derived from passive narrowband satellite imaging radiometers, and over the course of the project different instruments have contributed to this effort, namely the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS).Cloud properties have been derived from MODIS on the Aqua satellite for CERES since 2002,and VIIRS on the NOAA-20 satellite launched in 2017 will continue the cloud record once Aqua-MODIS reaches the end of its operational lifetime. However, MODIS and VIIRS have different spectral capabilities and characteristics which complicates our ability to seamlessly transition the record from MODIS to VIIRS. This study evaluates some of the recent algorithm modifications incorporated by the CERES Cloud Working Group towards developing a unified cloud mask algorithm for MODIS and VIIRS that utilizes a set of spectral bands common to both instruments. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data products are used to evaluate MODIS and VIIRS regional cloud fraction estimates and identify areas where improvements can be made. The cloud mask algorithm relies on computed estimates of cloud-free top-of-atmosphere radiances to differentiate cloudy and cloud-free imager pixels. The unified cloud mask algorithm currently under development uses a reduced number of spectral bands common to both MODIS and VIIRS and so relies on the accuracy of these simulated cloud-free radiances more heavily than predecessor algorithms, i.e., the CERES Edition 4 cloud mask, which use as much spectral information as available on each imager with less consideration for cross-platform consistency. Our validation strategy using CALIOP data is also described. The CALIOP observations are critical for assessing cloud detection accuracies and for independently confirming cloud-free conditions which enables a more robust evaluation of the simulated cloud-free radiances for biases due to factors such as view angle and the spectral dependence of water vapor absorption. These effects are known to differ for the two satellite instruments. Comparisons of MODIS and VIIRS cloud fractions are presented in context with estimates from CALIOP and from the CERES Edition 4 cloud mask algorithm to gauge current progress in developing accurate and consistent MODIS and VIIRS cloud properties for CERES.

CERES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A 3-Channel Algorithm for Retrieving Spatially and Temporally Continuous Cloud Properties Across Different Geostationary Satellite Imagers

Cloud property retrieval algorithms for passive satellite imagers are generally designed to take advantage of all the useful spectral information available for a particular satellite. This strategy optimizes accuracy and reduces misidentification and retrieval biases, particularly for modern satellites with many spectral channels. However, the application of dissimilar algorithms tailored for different satellite sensor scan present a problem within the climate data record (CDR). Algorithm inconsistencies can introduce artificial trends in the CDR that are tied to instrument changes rather than physical changes, especially when older satellites with limited spectral information are included. The NASA CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data record provides global cloud property retrievals across 23 years and more than 25 satellites. With the goal of producing a spatially and temporally continuous record of cloud properties, the CERES cloud working group has developed algorithms that use only 3 channels that are common to most geostationary satellite imagers: 0.65, 3.9, and 10.8 μm.

Sarah Bedka↗

NASA NTRS2023

Robustness of Gridded Precipitation Products for Vietnam Basins using the Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall

The use of satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) have become increasingly prevalent as key inputs to provide regional rainfall for improving hydrological simulations in data–spare regions. This study introduces a new approach – Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CAFR) to evaluate six satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) for eleven basins with different sizes across Vietnam (2007–2015). These SPPs include the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final run Version 6 (GPM IMERGF V6), Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.2, Soil Moisture to Rain (SM2RAIN) – Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) V1.5, Asian Precipitation–Highly–Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) V1901, Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) V2.0, and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) – Climate Data Record (CDR) V1.0. With the proposed CAFR: (1) IMERGF is suggested to have the best performance overall, especially when simulating flood peaks; (2) SM2RAIN–ASCAT demonstrates the best skills in metrics related to the dry season; (3) For streamflow simulations, SPPs' performance is sensitive to basin size, with larger basins showing better performance skills. In this study, we demonstrate the capability of our proposed framework to better understand SPP applications in hydrological modeling.

Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) Air Temperature and H2O Trends

Climate fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) provides gridded (0.5x0.5) daily skin temperature, surface emissivity, air temperature, water vapor, trace gases, and cloud properties, which derived from IR hyper-spectral radiance measured by AIRS on Aqua and CrIS on SNPP and JPSS series. In this work, the ClimFiSP daily air temperature and H2O were retrieved on 98 pressure levels by applying the spectral fingerprint algorithm on 0.5x0.5 gridded daily mean radiances from Climate Hyperspectral Infrared Radiance Product (CHIRP). CHIRP is a stable climate-quality radiance time series spanning AIRS and CrIS. The air temperature and H2O monthly data and trends were calculated from the more than two decades long CHIRP AIRS data. Troposphere warming and stratosphere cooling can be seen in both ClimFiSP and ERA5 air temperature data. The ClimFiSP air temperature trends are also compared with the MW sounding air temperature trends to validate the ClimFiSP air temperature results. The H2O trends on upper troposphere are evaluated by comparing with the ERA5 H2O trends, and results show a reasonable agreement with two sets of results. The ClimFiSP algorithm provides a unique and fast way to retrieve the spatial-temporal change in climate variables from the corresponding change in radiances, gridded at the same spatial-temporal scale. This greatly facilitates the procession of long-term climate data records.

ClimFiSP↗

NASA NTRS1990

Testing the Sun-climate Connection with Paleoclimate Data

If there is a significant sun-climate connection, it should be detectable in high-resolution paleoclimate records. Of particular interest is the last few thousand years, where we have both indices of solar variability (C-14 and Be-10) and climate variations (alpine glaciers, tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.). Although there are a few exceptions, statistical analyses of solar and climate records generally indicates a flickering relationship between the two -- sometimes it seems to be present, sometimes not. The most repeatable solar climate periods occur at approx. 120 and approx. 56 yrs, although there is also evidence for approx. 420 and approx. 200 yrs. power in some records. However, coherence between solar and climate spectra is usually low, and occurrence of solar spectra in climate records is sometimes dependent on choice of analysis program. These results suggest in general a relatively weak sun-climate link on time scales of decades to centuries. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies and with the observation that inferred climate fluctuations of 1.0 to 1.5 C on this time scale would require solar constant variations of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 percent. This change in forcing is almost an order of magnitude greater than observed changes over the last solar cycle and appears to be on the far-outer limit of acceptable changes for a Maunder Minimum-type event.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Chapter 6: Fundamental Satellite Precipitation Data Records

The observation and measurement of precipitation across a range of temporal and spatial scales is of great importance for many user requirements and applications. Precipitation is a key component of the global energy and water cycle moving water, and its’ associated energy, through the Earth system at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. At the societal level, precipitation provides fresh water and moderates our climate, but can also be destructive through storms, droughts and spreading diseases. Monitoring and measuring the distribution and quantities of precipitation, across the Earth’s surface is therefore crucial to physical and social applications, together with changes in precipitation over time. While conventional surface instruments provide a reasonably long record, these tend to be confined to well populated land surface areas: most ocean regions and sparsely populated regions have few measurements. Satellite-based precipitation products can provide global measurements, although the timespan of such products is limited and the data record is comprised of different instruments that operate over different periods of record. The challenge of any climate record is to provide a consistent product over the full period of record. Many satellite precipitation products incorporate ancillary data, such as surface gauge data or model data, which may limit their utility in the validation or verification of other climate data records. This chapter provides a review of the importance of precipitation to the climate system, the basis of satellite precipitation retrievals, climate data records of satellite data for precipitation retrievals and the development of fundamental precipitation data records for climate applications.

Climate data record↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Polar Regions and Martian Climate: Studies with a Global Climate Model

Much of the interest in the polar regions centers on the fact that they likely contain the best record of Martian climate change on time scales from years to eons. This expectation is based upon the observed occurrence of weathering product deposits and volatile reservoirs that are coupled to the climate. Interpretation and understanding of these records requires understanding of the mechanisms that involve the exchange of dust, water, and carbon dioxide between the surface and atmosphere, and the atmospheric redistribution of these species. We will summarize our use of the GFDL Mars general circulation model (MGCM), to exploration aspects of the interaction between the global climate and the polar regions. For example, our studies have shown that while the northern polar cap is the dominant seasonal source for water, it can act as a net annual source or sink for water, depending upon the cap temperatures and the bulk humidity of the atmosphere. This behavior regulates the annual and global average humidity of the atmosphere, as the cap acts as a sink if the atmosphere is too wet and a source if it is too dry. We will then focus our presentation on the ability of the MGCM to simulate the observed diurnal variations of surface temperature. We are particularly interested in assessing the influence of dust aerosol and water ice clouds on simulated surface temperature and the comparison with observations. Surface thermal inertia and albedo are critical boundary inputs for MGCM simulations. Thermal inertia is also of intrinsic interest as it may be related to properties of the surface such as particle size and surface character.

Wilson, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Rate of production, dissolution and accumulation of biogenic solids in the ocean

The equatorial current system, by its response to global circulation changes, provides a unique recording mechanism for long range climatic oscillations. A permanent record of the changes in rate of upwelling and organic production is generated in the equatorial deep sea sediments, particularly by such biogenic components which are unaffected by secondary dissolution. In order to determine the rates of accumulation of various sedimentary components, a reliable differential measurement of age of the strata must be obtained. Various approaches to this problem are reviewed, and sources of error discussed. Secondary dissolution of calcium carbonate introduces a substantial and variable difference between the dissolution-modified, and hence a priori unknown, rate of deposition on one hand and the rate of accumulation, derivable from the observed concentration, on the other. The cause and magnitude of these variations are of importance, particularly since some current dating schemes are based on assumed constancy in the rate of accumulation of this and, in some cases, also all other sedimentary components. The concepts used in rate evaluation are discussed with emphasis on the difference between the state of dissolution, an observable property of the sediment, and the rate of dissolution, a parameter that requires deduction of the carbonate fraction dissolved, and of the time differential. As a most likely cause of the enhanced state of dissolution of the interglacial carbonate sediments is proposed the lowered rates of biogenic production and deposition, which cause longer exposure of the carbonate microfossils to corrosion in the bioturbated surface layer of the sediment. Historical perspective is included in the discussion in view of the dedication of the Symposium to Hans Pettersson, the leader of the Swedish Deep Sea Expedition 1947-1948, an undertaking that opened a new era in deep sea research and planetary dynamics.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2020

Diversity Buffers Winegrowing Regions from Climate Change Losses

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

Morales-Castilla, Ignacio↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗