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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

CLIMATE CHANGE 2023 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It integrates the main findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) based on contributions from the three Working Groups, and the three Special Reports. The summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in three parts: SPM.A Current Status and Trends, SPM.B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, and SPM.C Responses in the Near Term. This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development, and reflects the increasing diversity of actors involved in climate action. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated languages.

climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Climate change microbiology — problems and perspectives

Here, the signs of climate change are undeniable, and the inevitable impact for Earth and all its inhabitants is a serious concern. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising, biodiversity is declining, precipitation has increased, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases are alarmingly high, and extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common. But what role do microorganisms have in this global challenge? In this Viewpoint article, several experts in the field discuss the microbial contributions to climate change and consider the effects of global warming, extreme weather, flooding and other consequences of climate change on microbial communities in the ocean and soil, on host–microbiota interactions and on the global burden of infectious diseases and ecosystem processes, and they explore open questions and research needs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Availability of state-level climate change projection resources for use in site-level risk assessment

In recent years, incorporating climate change considerations has become an important focus of organizations’ resilience planning and risk assessment efforts, including United States federal agencies. This has led to an increasing demand for higher-resolution and higher-quality climate projection information that is easy to understand for non-expert users. In particular, there is a demand for information about how climate change may affect high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) hazards that are central to risk assessments focused on infrastructure. While national-level resources like the National Climate Assessment provide information on climate impacts for different sectors and regions in the United States, downscaled information with location-specific context is often required for site-level resilience planning. As higher-resolution and higher-quality climate resources continue to be developed at the state level, it is imperative to understand ongoing and planned efforts, as well as key drivers for developing these state-level resources. Based primarily on stakeholder input from climate experts from 31 states, we identify key state-level climate resources, as well as drivers accelerating the development of these resources. We assess the availability of climate change resources, specifically those with information about HILF events that have been developed at the state level and can support users in conducting site-level resilience planning. We identify three key drivers or predictors for the development of climate change resources at the state level: (1) existence of state laws, mandates, Executive Orders, and other state policies, (2) existence of university partnerships; and (3) the makeup of the stakeholder groups (in terms of dominant discipline/expertise) participating in the effort. The diverse state strategies and resources surveyed in this study could support the incorporation of higher-resolution climate information into site-level planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward indicators of the performance of US infrastructures under climate change risks

Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, however, is severely limited at present. The development of such indicators must be considered an ongoing activity that will require expansion and refinement. A number of recent consensus reports suggest four priorities for indicators that portray the impacts of climate change, climate-related extreme events, and other driving forces on infrastructure. These are changes in the reliability of infrastructure services and the implications for costs; changes in the resilience of infrastructures to climate and other stresses; impacts due to the interdependencies of infrastructures; and ongoing adaptation in infrastructures.

adaptation, indicators, infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2016

DOE Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning: Three Relevant Case Studies - 16056

Executive Order 13653, Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change, was issued in 2013. The President emphasized the importance for federal agencies to take action to enhance climate preparedness and resilience. The U.S. Department of Energy released the DOE Climate Change Adaptation Plan in 2014 to build resilience and mitigation across the Department, and to assure inclusion of climate change adaptation as part of its planning and operations. DOE's Office of Environmental Management has an important mission to manage safe cleanup of environmental legacy contamination brought about from five decades of nuclear weapons development and government sponsored nuclear energy research. Specifically, Environmental Management is responsible for remediation of soil and groundwater, deactivation and decommissioning of facilities, and disposal of hazardous and radioactive waste. Three case studies are discussed in this paper that demonstrate the cost benefit and importance for Environmental Management to assess climate change vulnerability and implement planning procedures: 1. Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico has experienced $0.5 billion in unanticipated costs as a result of climate-related events including: extreme drought, wildfires, deluge rains, and historic flooding over the past 15 years. 2. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency American Cyanamid Superfund Site, situated on the New Jersey coast was hit by Hurricane Irene in 2011. Three major contaminated, solvent impoundment berms were breached within the 100-year flood plain, causing major damage to the facility. 3. For radioactive waste disposal facilities in low-lying areas in proximity to groundwater, climate change vulnerability and assessment is prudent for operational management. One such Superfund hazardous and radioactive waste disposal facility, the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility located at the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee, has documented surface and ground water management challenges since construction began in 2001, driven by changing regional weather patterns. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr21 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5uC (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5uC (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2uC may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5uC. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Extratropical Cooling, Interhemispheric Thermal Gradients, and Tropical Climate Change

Recent studies suggest the existence of a global atmospheric teleconnection of extratropical cooling to the tropical rainfall climate, mediated through the development of a thermal contrast between the hemispheres—an interhemispheric thermal gradient. This teleconnection has been largely motivated by studies that show a global synchronization of rapid climate change during abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period, in addition to attribution studies of twentieth-century Sahel drought and studies that examined the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols. This research has led to interesting developments in atmospheric dynamics of the underlying mechanisms and in applications toward understanding past and present tropical climate change. The emerging teleconnection hypothesis promises to offer new insights into understanding future patterns of tropical rainfall changes due to interhemispheric thermal gradients from greenhouse warming, aerosols, and land-use change.

Chiang, John C.H.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. We investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. Furthermore, for reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. These results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Short- and long-term climate changes on Mars

The present climate of Mars is dominated by the seasonal cycles of dust, water vapor, and carbon dioxide. Understanding these cycles represents a first step towards interpreting climate changes in the past. Past climates on Mars were probably different from the present one due to astronomical variations of orbital and axial properties, to major changes in atmospheric pressure and/or composition, and to long-term changes in solar luminosity.

Pollack, James B.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change

Abstract Understanding the response of atmospheric blocking events to climate change has been of great interest in recent years. However, potential changes in the blocking area (size), which can affect the spatiotemporal characteristics of the resulting extreme events, have not received much attention. Using two large‐ensemble, fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations, we show that the size of blocking events increases with climate change, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (by as much as 17%). Using a two‐layer quasi‐geostrophic model and a dimensional analysis technique, we derive a scaling law for the size of blocking events, which shows that area mostly scales with width of the jet times the Kuo scale (i.e., the length of stationary Rossby waves). The scaling law is validated in a range of idealized GCM simulations. Predictions of this scaling law agree well with changes in blocking events' size under climate change in fully coupled GCMs in winters but not in summers.

Nabizadeh, Ebrahim↗
DOE OSTI2012

The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the world’s energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

Calvin, Katherine V↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2017

How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups

We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals’ beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Microbial models with data‐driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change

Abstract Long‐term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon ( SOC ). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data‐constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC , whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP 5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP 5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2‐pool model) and 11% (4‐pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP 5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2‐pool microbial model. The 4‐pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values.

Hararuk, Oleksandra↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C −1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C −1 , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C −1 , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Zanis, Prodromos↗
DOE OSTI2019

Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation

This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗