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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Size-dependent stochastic tensile properties in additively manufactured 316L stainless steel

Recent work in metal additive manufacturing (AM) suggests that mechanical properties may vary with feature size; however, these studies do not provide a statistically robust description of this phenomenon, nor do they provide a clear causal mechanism. Because of the huge design freedom afforded by 3D printing, AM parts typically contain a range of feature sizes, with particular interest in smaller features, so the size effect must be well understood in order to make informed design decisions. This work investigates the effect of feature size on the stochastic mechanical performance of laser powder bed fusion tensile specimens. A high-throughput tensile testing method was used to characterize the effect of specimen size on strength, elastic modulus and elongation in a statistically meaningful way. The effective yield strength, ultimate tensile strength and modulus decreased strongly with decreasing specimen size: all three properties were reduced by nearly a factor of two as feature dimensions were scaled down from 6.25 mm to 0.4 mm. Hardness and microstructural observations indicate that this size dependence was not due to an intrinsic change in material properties, but instead the effects of surface roughness on the geometry of the specimens. Finite element analysis using explicit representations of surface topography shows the critical role surface features play in creating stress concentrations that trigger deformation and subsequent fracture. The experimental and finite element results provide the tools needed to make corrections in the design process to more accurately predict the performance of AM components.

316L stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observation of spatter-induced stochastic lack-of-fusion in laser powder bed fusion using in situ process monitoring

Material produced via additive manufacturing (AM) continues to exhibit variable mechanical properties despite apparent optimization of processing parameters, inhibiting qualification efforts and limiting use in critical applications. Stochastic lack-of-fusion flaws may help explain this variability, but the origin of these seemingly random defects has to this point remained unclear. In this work, we show that spatter particles, material ejected from the laser melt pool, are directly responsible for generating stochastic lack-of-fusion in laser-based powder bed fusion components through the application of spatial statistics. Herein a statistically significant, causal relationship between spatter particles and stochastic lack-of-fusion is established, and the spatial and morphological relationships between spatter and internal flaws are investigated. The occurrence of spatter-induced lack-of-fusion in relation to the inert gas flow and laser trajectory direction is also investigated, and recommendations for mitigating the occurrence of spatter are evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hazard analysis for identifying common cause failures of digital safety systems using a redundancy-guided systems-theoretic approach

Replacing the existing aging analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems with modern safety control and protection, digital technology offers one of the foremost means of performance improvements and cost reductions for the existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, the qualification of digital I&C systems remains a challenge, especially considering the issue of software common-cause failures (CCFs), which are difficult to address. With the application and upgrades of advanced digital I&C systems, software CCFs have become a potential threat to plant safety because most redundant designs use similar digital platforms or software in the operating and application systems. With complex designs of multilayer redundancy to meet the single-failure criterion, digital I&C safety systems (e.g., engineered safety-features actuation system [ESFAS]) are of a particular concern in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing procedures. Here, this paper applies a modularized approach to conduct redundancy-guided systems-theoretic hazard analysis for an advanced digital ESFAS with multilevel redundancy designs. Systematic methods and risk-informed tools are incorporated to address both hardware and software CCFs, which provide guidance to eliminate the causal factors of potential single points of failure in the design of digital safety systems in advanced plant designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Embedding condition describing shearing, dissipative collapse

Highlights: • Perturbative approach to the time-dependent Karmarkar condition in shearing collapse. • Analysis of the (in)stability of the collapsing fluid using the TOV equation. • Study of the temperature profiles using a causal heat transport equation. In this work we employ the time-dependent Karmarkar condition to model dissipative gravitational collapse in the presence of shear which leads to a final static configuration. We believe that this is a first attempt at using the time-dependent Karmarkar condition describing a radiating star with shear in which the collapsing core dissipates energy in the form of a radial heat flux. The final static configuration which is described by an embedding class I spacetime was obtained by Hansraj and Moodly who showed that this solution satisfies all the physical requirements for a static compact object. As the collapse proceeds and the heat flux tends to zero the dynamical core evolves into a static compact core with the exterior spacetime being described by the vacuum Schwarzschild solution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gauge invariance and Ward identities in nonlinear response theory

We present a formal analysis of nonlinear response functions in terms of correlation functions in real- and imaginary-time domains. In particular, we show that causal nonlinear response functions, expressed in terms of nested commutators in real time, can be obtained from the analytic continuation of time-ordered response functions, which are more easily amenable to diagrammatic calculation. This generalizes the well-known result of linear response theory. We then use gauge invariance arguments to derive exact relations between second-order response functions in density and current channels. These identities, which are non-perturbative in the strength of inter-particle interactions, allow us to establish exact connections between nonlinear optics calculations done in different electromagnetic gauges.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electric and magnetic black holes in a new nonlinear electrodynamics model

Highlights: • We introduce a new NED model which is comparable with the BI model in the weak-field limit. • We find an electric black hole solution in the context of Einstein’s gravity minimally coupled with the new NED model. • We study the thermal stability of the electric black hole solution. • Modified Smarr’s formula consistent with the first law of black hole thermodynamics is obtained. A new nonlinear electrodynamics (NED) model is introduced in the form of a nonpolynomial Lagrangian which admits static spherical and also plane wave solutions in a flat space. Upon coupling with gravity the electric field is finite and comparable with the Born–Infeld counterpart. The electric and magnetic black hole solutions in the Einstein’s gravity coupled with this NED model are presented. The solutions give both asymptotically and in the weak field limit Reissner–Nordström (RN) black hole and unlike the other known models our electric solution is expressed in terms of elementary functions in a closed form. We study the first law and derive the modified Smarr’s formula for the electric type extension of our model. Considerable rich structure, especially thermodynamic ones, ranging from first to the second order phase transitions are added to the RN black hole of linear electrodynamics with this NED model. Having the exact solution for the metric function at our disposal we investigate the stability of the electric black hole from both the thermodynamical and causal points of view.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fluctuating relativistic dissipative hydrodynamics as a gauge theory

Here we argue that different formulations of hydrodynamics are related to uncertainties in the definitions of local thermodynamic and hydrodynamic variables. We show that this ambiguity can be resolved by viewing different formulations of hydrodynamics as particular “gauge choices” which lead to the same physical behavior of the system. Using the example of bulk viscosity, we show that Bemfica–Disconzi–Noronha–Kovtun (BDNK) and Israel–Stewart hydrodynamics are particular “gauge choices” of this type, related by a well-defined transformation of thermodynamic and hydrodynamic variables. We argue that this gauge ambiguity is necessary to ascertain the causality of stochastic hydrodynamic evolution and conjecture that it could explain the applicability of hydrodynamics outside its expected regime of validity since far from equilibrium and close to equilibrium may be related through transformations of this type.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using discrete Bayesian networks for diagnosing and isolating cross-level faults in HVAC systems

Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) technologies are critical to ensure satisfactory building performance, such as reducing energy wastes and negative impacts on occupant comfort and productivity. Existing FDD technologies mainly focus on component-level FDD solutions, which could lead to mis-diagnosis of cross-level faults in heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. Cross-level faults are those faults that occur in one component or subsystem, but cause operational abnormalities in other components or subsystems, and result in a building level performance degradation. How to effectively diagnose the root cause of a cross-level fault is the focus of this study. Here, this paper presents a novel discrete Bayesian Network (DisBN)-based method for diagnosing cross-level faults in an HVAC system commonly used in commercial buildings. A two-level DisBN structure model is developed in this study. The parameters used in the DisBN model are obtained either from expert knowledge or through machine-learning strategies from normal system operation data. Meanwhile, the probability parameters are discretized to incorporate the uncertainties associated with typical expert knowledge. Thus, the developed DisBN method addresses the challenges many other BN based FDD methods face, i.e., the lack of fault data for BN parameter training. The developed DisBN represents causal relationships between a fault and its cross-level system impacts (i.e., fault symptoms or fault indicators) by considering how fault impacts propagate across different levels in an HVAC system. A weather and schedule information-based Pattern Matching (WPM) method is employed to automatically create WPM baseline data sets for each incoming real time snapshot data from the building systems. Consequently, BN inference and real-time diagnostics are achieved by comparing incoming snapshot data and the WPM baseline data set. The proposed method is evaluated using experimental fault data collected in a campus building. Fault diagnosis results demonstrate that the WPM-DisBN method is effective at locating the root causes of cross-level faults in an HVAC system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning in materials science: From explainable predictions to autonomous design

The advent of big data and algorithmic developments in the field of machine learning (and artificial intelligence, in general) have greatly impacted the entire spectrum of physical sciences, including materials science. Materials data, measured or computed, combined with various techniques of machine learning have been employed to address a myriad of challenging problems, such as, development of efficient and predictive surrogate models for a range of materials properties, screening and down-selection of novel candidate materials for targeted applications, new methodologies to improve and further expedite molecular and atomistic simulations, with likely many more important developments to come in the foreseeable future. While the applications thus far have provided a glimpse of the true potential data-enabled routes have to offer, it has also become clear that further progress in this direction hinges on our ability to understand, explain and rationalize findings of a machine learning model in light of the domain-knowledge. This focused review provides an overview of the main areas where machine learning has been widely and successfully used in materials science. Subsequently, a brief discussion of several techniques that have been helpful in extracting physically-meaningful insights, causal relationships and design-centric knowledge from materials data is provided. Finally, we identify some of the imminent opportunities and challenges that materials community faces in this exciting and rapidly growing field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-freeze graph training for latent learning

Scientific and engineering advances are primarily driven by multi-tier conceptual constructs and conditional theoretical frameworks. The theories allow predictions of hypothetical system responses, given a set of approximate conditions (ranges of applicability) imposed on latent parameters that cannot be measured directly. Learning to estimate the latent variables (Latent Learning) helps to pinpoint the anticipated range-edge anomalies and improves the confidence in interpretation, interpolation and extrapolation of limited experimental data. Due to high dimensionality and extreme non-linearity of the materials science problems, very large datasets are typically required for conventional data-driven model development. The vital experimental data collection, particularly on microstructural phases, is very challenging, which makes it difficult to compile a high-quality database. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into the computational graph structure, initialization and optimization processes presents a viable mechanism for developing accurate models, with limited datasets. Furthermore, this study successfully utilized the approach to build the Deep Freeze Graph (DeepFreG) by mapping known causality relationships and by digitizing empirical domain knowledge for Latent Learning (LL), with specific applications in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

BrainXcan identifies brain features associated with behavioral and psychiatric traits using large-scale genetic and imaging data

Advances in brain MRI have enabled many discoveries in neuroscience. Case-control comparisons of brain MRI features have highlighted potential causes of psychiatric and behavioral disorders. However, due to the cost and difficulty of collecting MRI data, most studies have small sample sizes, limiting their reliability. Furthermore, reverse causality complicates interpretation because many observed brain differences are the result rather than the cause of the disease. Here we propose a method (BrainXcan) that leverages the power of large-scale genomewide association studies (GWAS) and reference brain MRI data to discover new mechanisms of disease etiology and validate existing ones. BrainXcan tests the association with genetic predictors of brain MRI-derived features and complex traits to pinpoint relevant brain-wide and region-specific features. Requiring only genetic data, BrainXcan allows us to test a host of hypotheses on mental illness, across many MRI modalities, using public data resources. For example, our method shows that reduced axonal density across the brain is associated with schizophrenia risk, consistent with the disconnectivity hypothesis. We also find that the hippocampus volume is associated with schizophrenia risk, highlighting the potential of our approach. Taken together, our results show the promise of BrainXcan to provide insights into the biology of GWAS traits.

Association study↗
DOE OSTI2020

A dataset of eco-evidence tools to inform early-stage environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

The datasets described herein provide the foundation for a decision support prototype (DSP) toolkit aimed at assisting stakeholders in determining evidence of which aspects of river ecosystems have been impacted by hydropower. The DSP toolkit and its application are presented and described in the article “Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development” [1]. Development of the DSP and the output for decision support centralize around 42 river function indicators describing the dimensionality of river ecosystems through six main categories: biota and biodiversity, water quality, hydrology, geomorphology, land cover, and river connectivity. Three main tools are represented in the DSP: A science-based questionnaire (SBQ), an environmental envelope model (EEM), and a river function linkage assessment tool (RFLAT). The SBQ is a structured survey-style questionnaire whose objective is to provide evidence of which indicators have been impacted by hydropower. Based on a global literature review, 140 questions were developed from general hypotheses regarding the impacts of dams on rivers. The EEM is a model to predict the likelihood of hydropower impacting indicators based on a several variables. The intended use of the EEM is for situations of new hydropower development where results of the SBQ are incomplete or highly uncertain. The EEM was developed through the compilation of a dataset containing attributes of dams, reservoirs, and geospatial information on environmental concerns, which was combined with data on ecological indicators documented at those sites through literature review. The model operates through 247 “envelopes” and weighting factors, representing the individual effect of each variable on each indicator, all available through spreadsheets. Finally, the RFLAT is a tool to examine causal relationships amongst indicators. Inter-indicator relationships were hypothesized based on literature review and summarized into node and edge datasets to represent the structure of a graphical network. Bayes theorem was used estimate conditional probabilities of inter-indicator relationships based on the output of the SBQ. Nodes and edges were imported into R programming environment to visualize ecological indicator networks. The datasets can be expanded upon and enriched with more detailed questions for the SBQ, building upon the EEM with to develop more sophisticated models, and identifying new relationships for the RFALT. Additionally, once the tools are applied to numerous hydropower developments, the output of the tools (e.g. evidence of impacted indicators) becomes a very useful dataset for meta-analyses of hydropower impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advocating for view and daylight in buildings: Next steps

With the exponential growth in population and commensurate increased density in urban cities, access to daylight and views to nature is being severely curtailed in buildings. In parallel, increasingly urgent demands to sharply reduce building energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions are being made to mitigate climate change. There are many challenges and performance tradeoffs associated with the building facade (i.e., daylight and view versus solar and glare control); increased prioritization of health and well-being as a fundamental human requirement could adversely affect building energy-efficiency. Given the current state of knowledge on the effects of daylight and view on health and well-being in buildings, we identify critical needs in research, tools and technologies that if satisfied may enable more effective use of daylight and view in buildings within the constraints of climate change. Lack of knowledge regarding the complex causal mechanisms of window views on human factors is a severely limiting factor in forward progress. Current models and methods to derive bidirectional scattering distribution functions (BSDFs) will need to be modified. Developers of energy-efficient window technologies will need more guidance to shape product development. Advanced window technologies and integrated design can enable attainment of both health and well-being and net zero energy goals, but considerable work will be needed to make such options turnkey and broadly available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large isotopic variability at the micron-scale in ‘Shuram’ excursion carbonates from South Australia

Ediacaran-aged (635–541 million years ago) marine sediments contain a large negative carbon isotope (δ 13 C) excursion, in which carbonate δ 13 C values reach -12‰ (VPDB). Known as the ‘Shuram’ excursion, many workers have interpreted this δ 13 C record as an unprecedented perturbation to the global carbon cycle, leading to speculation about a causal connection to the broadly contemporaneous rise of animal life. Others have interpreted the δ 13 C signal as a product of diagenesis, thereby minimizing its relevance for understanding the evolution of metazoans. In this work, we present SEM imaging and in-situ δ 13 C and δ 18 C values measured by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) to assess these competing hypotheses in the Wonoka Formation of South Australia. Our results from the minimum of the excursion show that rounded sedimentary grains of calcite have δ 13 C values between -12.8 to -10.6‰ and δ 18 C values between 17.8 to 15.5‰ (VPDB). Euhedral dolomite that appears to have grown unimpeded in open sedimentary pore spaces also is present. These early-stage dolomites are interpreted as early authigenic in origin and have δ 13 C values that reach +5‰, requiring a formation fluid with a substantially different δ 13 C composition from basin waters or bulk sediment. Together, these results provide little evidence for the hypothesis that a late diagenetic overprint has generated the ‘Shuram’ excursion in the Wonoka. Instead, they suggest the presence of a large carbon isotopic gradient in the surface environment, with shallow waters capable of precipitating carbonates with very low δ 13 C (down to 12‰) and deeper shelf and/or marine pore waters generating carbonates with positive carbon isotope values (up to +5‰). Because negative isotope excursions of similar magnitude are found in widely dispersed Ediacaran basins, it is likely that this gradient was characteristic of shelf environments of this period and that a still-unknown global process led to the ‘Shuram’ excursion in shallow water carbonates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supply sunspots and shadows: Business siting patterns and inequitable rooftop solar adoption in the United States

Entrepreneurs in certain industries tend to locate new businesses in relatively affluent areas. Preferences to site businesses in affluent areas can reduce low-income household access to certain products. Some argue that business siting patterns could explain inequitable consumption patterns, though such causal claims are often empirically weak. Here, we explore whether business siting patterns partly explain inequitable adoption of rooftop solar photovoltaics in California. We show that solar business formation drives an immediate and sustained increase in local solar adoption, including in low-income areas. However, solar business siting patterns have only weak impacts on solar adoption equity. The data show how solar businesses headquartered in low-income areas nonetheless install solar for relatively affluent customers. Customer-level adoption inequity partly offsets the potential equity gains of siting more businesses in low-income areas. We discuss how the emergent nature and unique business model of rooftop solar help explain these nuanced results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uplifting winds: The surprisingly positive community-wide impact of wind energy installations on property values

A primary concern of stakeholders when considering a new wind project is the potential negative effects wind turbines may have on home values. Yet, what has been surprisingly overlooked in the literature and general discourse around wind energy is that the well-researched positive economic development and fiscal and amenity benefits of wind energy (e.g., increased tax base, tax revenue, better public services and employment gains) might positively affect jurisdiction-wide housing values. With a focus on school districts in the United States, we compare home values in school districts with wind energy installations, before and after a wind energy installation becomes operational, to home values in other school districts located in the same county but without a wind energy installation to provide some of the first causal evidence on the relationship between wind energy projects and district-wide property values. We find that wind projects lead to economically meaningful increases in district-wide housing values of approximately 3 %, when those values are compared to similar homes located in school districts in same-county without wind energy. The effect is strongly correlated with wind project size. The mechanisms, our research suggests, are likely related to relatively large increases in school district per-pupil revenues and expenditures, which are also correlated with wind project size. We suggest other possible mechanisms for the increased values as well.

Attitudes↗