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At least 325 records · Page 18

CSP Systems Analysis 2022-2024 (Final Technical Report)

The CSP Systems Analysis project estimates the current market cost of CSP subsystems and technologies for use by the DOE Program and within NREL analysis tools. The project addresses upgrades to NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) related to CSP, as well as development of new modules within SAM to expand the types of CSP systems that can be simulated and new tools for evaluating CSP subsystem performance or optimizing CSP system layouts, for example, SolarPILOT and SolTrace. The project evaluates the potential cost and performance of new CSP-relevant technologies and generally includes assessment of CSP technologies in support of the DOE subprogram. A primary goal of the CSP System Analysis project is to provide timely and accurate cost data to the DOE to assess the current state of CSP technologies as well as predict performance and cost for pre-commercial and emerging technologies that may impact the industry. Prior work in this task has produced technology cost reports and roadmaps for DOE and highlighted promising research paths that could reduce overall CSP cost, such as the supercritical CO2 power cycle and molten-salt trough systems. CSP Systems Analysis produces modeling tools to evaluate the performance of CSP systems, subsystems, or components, and journal articles, conference papers, technical reports and databases to disseminate information to the CSP industry. CSP technology costs are estimated and tracked using these tools as well as analysis of literature and industry sources. The CSP modeling tools and NREL analysis results are used by researchers; government, financial, and industry analysts; and other CSP stakeholders. The purpose of this final technical report is to summarize the key accomplishments of the past three years of this project. The project was divided into seven separate tasks, and in what follows, we describe the background, objectives, key accomplishments, and path forward for each task within the project, with one section of this report summarizing each task.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost details from front-end engineering design of piperazine with the advanced stripper

This Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to estimate the cost to capture and compress 90% of the CO 2 from an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) in Denver City, Texas, USA. The FEED used the PZAS (Piperazine with the Advanced Stripper) 2G amine scrubbing technology developed and modeled by The University of Texas at Austin. This FEED is unique in providing more public cost details than other FEEDs funded by DOE. The primary objective of the FEED was to provide a comprehensive estimate for the total installed cost of the capture plant. The estimated capital cost of NGCC at the Mustang Station is $\$727$ million for a capacity of 460 MW and 1.6 million tonnes CO 2 /yr. This includes a contingency of $\$104.6$ million and a contractor’s profit of $\$60.1$ million. The total direct field cost is $\$384.1$ million. With an optimistic fuel value of $\$3$/MMBtu, the estimated cost of capture varies from $\$85$/t at 4% IRR/85% load to $\$170$/t at 10% IRR/52% load. Air cooling is technically feasible but expensive. The air cooling systems for the water wash and pump-around intercooling account for 23.4% of the direct cost. The gas-fired boilers represent only 4% of the direct costs, but steam extraction would reduce energy cost, free up cooling water, and reduce the direct costs of processing additional flue gas and CO 2 from the boilers. The absorbers represent 9.6% of the direct cost in this FEED with no direct contact cooler and only 7.6 m of packing. Furthermore, the solvent cross exchangers are less expensive than expected (2.5% of direct costs). Doubling the number of these exchangers could reduce the heat duty from 3.0 to 2.5 GJ/t CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cost of Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion to Fabricate a Molten Salt-to-Supercritial Carbon Dioxide Heat Exchanger for Concentrating Solar Power

Advances in manufacturing technologies and materials are crucial to the commercial deployment of energy technologies. We present the case of concentrating solar power (CSP) with molten salt (MS) thermal storage, where low-cost, high-efficiency heat exchangers (HXs) are needed to achieve cost competitiveness. Here, the materials required to tolerate the extreme operating conditions in CSP systems make it difficult or infeasible to produce them using conventional manufacturing processes. Although it is technically possible to produce HXs with adequate performance using additive manufacturing, specifically laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), here we assess whether doing so is cost-effective. We describe a process-based cost model (PBCM) to estimate the cost of fabricating a MS-to-supercritical carbon dioxide HX using LPBF. The PBCM is designed to identify modifications to designs, process choices, and manufacturing innovations that have the greatest effect on manufacturing cost. Our PBCM identified HX design and LPBF process modifications that reduced projected HX cost from $\$750$ per kilo-Watt thermal (kW-th) ($\$8$ /cm 3 ) to $\$350$ /kW-th ($\$6/$ cm 3 ) using currently available LPBF technology, and down to $\$220$ /kW-th ($\$4$ /cm 3 ) with improvements in LPBF technology that are likely to be achieved in the near term. The PBCM also informed a redesign of the HX design that reduced projected costs to $\$140$ –160/kW-th ($\$3$ /cm 3 ).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Content Model for Design of High Deflection Foils for MHK Applications

The LCOE Content Model provides data submitters with an easy and consistent means of uploading data that can be used to calculate the levelized cost of energy for MHK devices. These data are important to DOE and will be used to develop data products that provide quantitative information to guide and support programmatic decisions. Data will also be used to evaluate MHK products and determine costs and can help data users compare the combination of capital costs and operations and maintenance over time. The ultimate goal is to use these data to perform research and tailor programs to best benefit the industry.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A Reduced-form Cost Model for Prefeasibility Analysis of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams

This study presents a reduced-form model to support a better understanding of the capacity potential and drivers of costs for hydropower development at U.S. non-powered dams (NPD), which are existing dams that are not currently used for hydropower. With information on nineteen reference sites, a set of reduced-form design and cost equations were estimated to enable rapid assessments of aggregate costs and their components for a large number of NPD sites. The model was then applied to 36,000+ potential U.S. NPD sites using the limited data commonly available. Although the cost estimates span a wide range, there exists a significant amount of U.S. NPD hydropower capacity potential, which are considered cost-competitive in the current market using baseline technologies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Degradation of Poly- and Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in Water via High Power, Energy-Efficient Electron Beam Accelerator

The goal of the 2-year workplan was to see if electron beam (EB) could be used to break down a sub-set of the larger chemical family of per and polyfluoroalkylated substances (PFAS) in an energy efficient and economical manner when compared to conventional water treatment technologies. Year one (Y1) work focused on sample EB treatment work in the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory’s (FNALs) Accelerator Applications Demonstration and Development (A2D2) EB accelerator. While there are reportedly thousands of types of PFAS, for the point of most of the work herein, a small subset was examined, typically perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA). PFOA and PFOS are two of the most well studied PFAS and are studied for baseline evaluations and are considered most useful. The work from Y1 provided information about the optimal operating parameters and additives to use when treating PFOS and PFOA via EB. The data were then used to see where in a water treatment system an EB accelerator would be best suited to treat PFAS. A conventional water treatment technology, GAC, was then compared to e-beam treatment technology with respect to energy and costs for treatment. In year two (Y2), several conventional e-beam accelerator designs, and FNAL’s developmental compact SRF accelerator design, were evaluated for their suitability in PFAS treatment, from an energy efficiency and cost standpoint. Several EB parameters were evaluated and optimized for the removal of PFOA and PFOS from water at normal pressure and temperature, measured as total PFAS removal. Under the optimized test conditions both PFOA showed complete destruction to inorganic fluoride, and PFOS to inorganic fluoride and sulfate, with mass balance. The effect on PFAS removal relative to solution pH, total EB dose, EB dose rate, dissolved oxygen concentration (DO), temperature, and initial PFAS concentration were evaluated. In general, PFOA was easier to destroy than PFOS. Degradation products, typically observed under less-than-optimal EB conditions, provided insight to degradation mechanisms. Products were identified to rule out possible deleterious biproduct formation. The water radiolysis radical reaction kinetics with PFOS and PFOA were not dependent on the initial concentration over 5-orders of magnitude from 2 μg/L to 20 mg/L. This is thought to be because there was an overabundance of the reactive water radiolysis radicals relative to PFAS molecules and largely attributed to aqueous electrons. The reaction rates appeared to be diffusion limited. Testing at higher concentrations (100-200 mg/L) showed a decrease in removal efficiency, suggesting alternative kinetics, possibly second order rates, at higher concentrations. In all, we successfully defined a set of optimal EB parameters to treat PFOA and PFOS at concentrations of 20 mg/L in water with destruction efficiencies near 100%. We further tested the optimized EB parameters with other types of PFAS, including shorter and longer fluorocarbon chain homologs of PFOA and PFOS, and PFAS with alternative functional groups such as sulfonamides. Based on our results EB can be optimized as an effective destructive technology for removing PFAS from water. The conditions optimized for PFOA and PFOS were less effective with ultra-short fluorocarbon compounds like TFMS, PFES, PFPS and PFBS, and likely require re-optimization of parameters to them. In all, it was determined that from a cost and energy efficiency standpoint, EB would be best applied to waste streams with relatively high concentrations of PFOS and PFOA and is not as cost effective as GAC treatment for removing low concentrations of PFAS from water. Higher concentrations of PFAS can be found in the wastewater of conventional treatment processes such as RO and IE and therefore EB may be used to supplement such treatment technologies. Some real-world IE regeneration wash water and RO reject water containing higher concentrations of PFAS and obtained from pilot scale industrial wastewater treatment system at a fluorochemical manufacturing facility, showed that EB could remove PFAS from such types of wastewaters. The IE regenerant wash water appeared to be the most efficient of the two types of wastewaters tested. However, some further optimization of the EB parameters for the specific PFAS types present in those wastewaters may be required. Also, the effects of co-present TOC and mineral salts should be considered during such optimization efforts. From the experimental Y1 results it was seen that the aqueous electron drives degradation of the PFAS. In a hypothetical water treatment skid using EB for PFAS destruction the parameters of the system should be optimized to promote aqueous electron production. Before EB treatment, the PFAS should be preconcentrated when possible, the pH should be raised to pH 10 or higher to enhance aqueous electron production, and the water should be nitrogen purged to remove dissolved oxygen to minimize aqueous electron scavenging. An excel spreadsheet was created that calculates optimal conditions based on inlet PFAS concentration and desired outlet concentration, by optimizing the accelerator power, dose rate, water treatment rate, pH and dissolved oxygen levels to reach the desired endpoint. Given this information on accelerator operating conditions five different EB accelerator systems were compared. One EB system was a continuous-wave, linear superconducting accelerator being designed at Fermilab. Three other EB systems (IMPELA at 5% and 25% duty factor and the ILU-14) were normal conducting pulsed linear accelerators. The fifth system was an IBA Rhodotron which is a normal conducting, circular, continuous-wave accelerator. The accelerator efficiency (% of the incoming power that is used in water treatment) was the dominating factor in accelerator choice. The radio frequency (RF) power supply and the accelerator design (superconducting versus warm technology) drive the accelerator efficiency. The IBA Rhodotron was seen to be the most energy efficient commercially available technology with a wall-plug (total) power efficiency of 43% at 400 kW. The Fermilab design, with a prototype for a different application currently being fabricated, was the most energy efficient at 55% when driven by a Klystron RF power supply and as high as 77% when powered by a magnetron. As the Fermilab design was the most energy efficient by approximately 10-30%, further design work was done on the accelerator and beam delivery system specific to the destruction of PFAS in water. The Fermilab design is unique from industrial accelerators in that is superconducting. Superconducting technology allows for the acceleration of electrons without losses. The accelerator must be cooled to below the point where it is superconducting and is operated around 4 degrees Kelvin. The bulk of the design work for the accelerator is on making the accelerator as energy efficient as possible so that it does not require liquid helium and can be cooled with conduction cooling via cryocoolers. Final design work resulted in an EB accelerator that would operate at minimally 200 kW and 10 MeV. Prototype construction would cost $\$ $7.8 million dollars when driven by a Klystron power supply. A second version of the same accelerator would cost $\$ $5.5 million dollars when driven by a magnetron that is still under development. The commercially available 300 kW IBA Rhodotron cost was estimated at approximately $\$ $9 million. While it is hard to directly compare, an operational GAC system used by 3M for groundwater treatment capital cost (2022 dollars) was estimated to cost $\$ $3.3 million. While the capital expense of the EB accelerator systems was higher than GAC, the accelerator EB treatment would result in destruction of the PFAS and not just sequestration of PFAS to form a new waste stream that requires further treatment or disposal. The operating cost to destroy the PFAS via 400 kw EB system was less than $\$ $1000/kg of PFAS destroyed when treating at a 20 mg/L PFAS concentration, compared to GAC with operating costs that calculated at $\$ $27,530 per kg of PFAS sequestered when treating 100 μg/L PFOA and PFOS combined concentration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2024

Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs)are a contractual mechanism that allow a federal agency to procure energy savings and facility improvements without upfront capital costs to reduce costs and resiliency. ESPCs are covered under FAR Part 23.2, and 42 USC § 8287. Section 8287(a)(2)(A) of Title 42 of the U.S. Code requires that each energy savings performance contract (ESPC) undergo an annual energy audit, resulting in a separate audit report for every project. The objective of the present report is to compile and analyze all annual ESPC audit reports issued between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, for projects awarded under Generations 1, 2, and 3 of DOE’s ESPC IDIQ contracts. During this period, 205 measurement and verification (M&V) reports were produced for 200 projects; the total number of reports exceeds the number of projects because some projects generated more than one report(for example, a few projects measure savings twice per year and produce two audit reports annually, each covering a different six-month period). By aggregating the results from these individual audits, the report determines the portfolio-wide realization rate of energy and cost savings for all active ESPC projects awarded under DOE’s IDIQ program. For all 205audit reports, sufficient information was available to compare project-level estimated, reported, and guaranteed cost savings. Reported cost savings accounted for ESCO verified savings per each project’s M&V plan. The total reported cost savings for the period addressed were $\$$647.8million,compared with the total guaranteed cost savings of $\$$601.6million. On average across the reported projects: •ESPC contractors guaranteed 92.8% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 100.0% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 107.7% of the guaranteed cost savings. The M&V performed for the period indicated adjustments for government operations and maintenance impacts to savings amount to$\$$43.9millionandcould be restored with the original operational parameters for impacted projects. Accounting for this potential cost savings impact, these projects still realized 100.4% of the guaranteed cost savings. The information on estimated and reported energy savings was collected and compared for all 205of the reports examined. Based on site energy, estimated savings totaled 14.88million MMBtu, and reported savings were 15.33million MMBtu; 3.1% greater than the estimated energy savings. All of the reports examined contained sufficient information to calculate source energy savings. Based on site-adjusted source energy, total estimated energy savings were 20.90 million MMBtu, and reported savings were 21.22million MMBtu, 101.5% of the estimated energy savings. For water savings, the estimated savings were 11,539,055 kGal and the reported savings were 13,315,930 kGal. This means 1,776,875 kGal more water was saved than estimated, which is about 15% higher than the estimate. These results indicate that, overall, the reported energy savings slightly exceeded the estimated values, while estimated water savings significantly exceeded estimated values, suggesting that the projects achieved greater cost savings than originally projected. The total annual expense for the ESCOs to perform annual M&V audits and reporting was $\$$10.02million. Through this effort, $\$$647.8 million in annual cost savings was verified. The M&V results indicated that $\$$43.9 million of these verified savings reflected adjustments due to government operations A-6and maintenance impacts, which could be restored under the original operational parameters for the affected projects. These findings show the value of M&V that only costs 1.7%of the guaranteed cost savings to ensure guarantees are met.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An Assessment of Additively Manufactured Bonded Permanent Magnets for a Distributed Wind Generator

In this paper, we examine and compare the performance of a generator design optimized using additively manufactured NdFeB-SmFeN in nylon-polymer-bonded permanent magnets (PMs) against a generator design with conventional NdFeB sintered PMs. To realize this, a commercially available 15-kW wind generator's rotor is re-optimized using both additively manufactured and sintered NdFeB magnets using simple geometric parameterization that allowed for two specific magnet shapes, namely, arc-shaped and crown-shaped designs. Results showed that for a similar generator performance, the designs with additively manufactured bonded PMs are more cost-competitive in terms of the estimated PM material cost and also have negligible eddy current magnet losses.

additive manufacturing↗

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Belite Cement, and Concretes; Novel Low-Energy Approaches to Making Concrete Extremely Durable (Final Report)

This award allowed the University of Kentucky to demonstrate a number of key objectives. The focus of the project was on creating a belite cement, and concrete, that demonstrated a greatly reduced CO 2 demand for manufacture and enabling the development of extremely durable concrete. The accomplishments of the developed technology includes the following, as compared to Ordinary Portland cement: 2x greater compressive strength; 10x greater corrosion resistance; 35 – 50% less estimated clinker and mill energy use; 15 – 20% less estimated cement manufacturing cost; 35% more estimated clinker capacity; 25 – 30% less estimated cement CO 2 footprint.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Geopolymer Cements: Resistance-Engineered Sewer Infrastructure for Longevity using Innovative, Energy-efficient, Synthesis Techniques (RESILIENT)

The primary objective of this project was to engineer an ultra-acid-resistant low-calcium alkali-activated cement paste for wastewater infrastructure applications to address the critical need for concrete materials with enhanced sulfuric acid resistance compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC) concrete. In this project, the first milestone was to benchmark the sulfuric acid (SA) resistance of OPC and metakaolin-based geopolymer cement pastes. The second milestone was to model, select, and evaluate the efficacy of metal cation additions on the SA resistance of geopolymer cements. The third milestone was to create synthetic metakaolin that performed similarly to natural metakaolin. The fourth milestone was to design, build, and test the efficacy of four abiotic and biotic nano seeding agents. The fifth and final milestone was to quantify the breakeven material cost requirements and estimated environmental lifecycle costs of the most durable geopolymer cement formulations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

COMPOFF: A Compiler Cost model using Machine Learning to predict the Cost of OpenMP Offloading

The HPC industry is inexorably moving towards an era of extremely heterogeneous architectures, with more devices configured on any given HPC platform and potentially more kinds of devices, some of them highly specialized. Writing a separate code suitable for each target system for a given HPC application is not practical. The better solution is to use directive-based parallel programming models such as OpenMP. OpenMP provides a number of options for offloading a piece of code to devices like GPUs. To select the best option from such options during compilation, most modern compilers use analytical models to estimate the cost of executing the original code and the different offloading code variants. Building such an analytical model for compilers is a difficult task that necessitates a lot of effort on the part of a compiler engineer. Recently, machine learning techniques have been successfully applied to build cost models for a variety of compiler optimization problems. In this paper, we present COMPOFF, a cost model which uses the multi-layer perceptrons to statically estimates the Cost of OpenMP OFFloading. We used six different transformations on a parallel code of Wilson Dslash Operator to support GPU offloading, and we predicted their cost of execution on different GPUs using COMPOFF during compile time. Our results show that this model can predict offloading costs with a root mean squared error in prediction of less than 0.5 seconds. Our preliminary findings indicate that this work will make it much easier and faster for scientists and compiler developers to port legacy HPC applications that use OpenMP to new heterogeneous computing environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cost optimization of high recovery single stage gap membrane distillation

Estimating the cost of membrane distillation (MD) processes at scale is confounded by the vast array of possible process configurations, module configurations, and operating conditions and the extreme sensitivity of MD costs to these parameters. This work develops a comprehensive MD cost optimization framework for minimizing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) as a function of feed salinity and temperature. Our single stage gap MD model fully captures solution properties, heat transfer, and mass transfer relationships in the modules to determine the cost optimal design as a function of multiple decision variables, including process configuration (feed location and connectivity between the hot and cold-side), the gap type (air, permeate, conductive), equipment sizes (membrane, heater, chiller, and heat exchanger units), and operating conditions (flow rates, hot and cold side temperatures, and heating and cooling duties). We estimate that the minimum LCOW of conductive gap MD ranges between $\$$10 and $\$$16 per m 3 for feed salinities of 25 g/L to 200 g/L and water recoveries of 30%–75%. Further, we update several heuristic assumptions for cost optimal system operation, including: increased thermal conductivity of the gap decreases system costs; cost optimal MD operates at the highest allowable temperature; and the LCOW is a strong function of brine salinity. Finally, we find that improving membrane properties and lowering heating and cooling costs will provide only modest reductions in costs (<25%).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

In Search of a Cost-Effective Approach for Estimating Dam Passage Survival

Abstract Passage of downstream-migrating fishes through hydropower dams poses a management issue in rivers throughout the world. As such, regulations have been enacted at many locales to understand and limit fish losses by requiring dam passage survival estimation. However, limiting estimates of survival to the dam and immediate tailrace presents a challenge to researchers. In this study, two alternative release–recapture methods were used to estimate dam passage survival of juvenile salmonids through Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, Washington, in 2018. One approach, the virtual/paired-release (ViPRe) model, was extensively used in the Columbia–Snake River basin at federally operated hydroelectric dams during 2010–2014. This existing approach uses three releases of tagged smolts to isolate dam passage survival, defined as survival from the upstream dam face to the tailrace mixing zone 1–2 km downstream of the dam. An alternative approach, the virtual release/dead-fish correction (ViRDCt) model, uses one live-release group paired with a release of dead tagged fish at the dam to estimate the same survival parameter. The alternative estimation approaches were tested on two spring out-migrating stocks, yearling Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, and on a summer out-migrating stock of subyearling Chinook Salmon. The alternative estimates for these stocks were all within 1 SE. However, the ViRDCt model produced survival estimates with SEs that were 59% smaller than those of the existing ViPRe model and did so using 42% fewer tagged fish and one less downstream acoustic detection array. Because of the reduced sample size, nearly US$540,000 less in tag costs and 4,000 fewer labor-hours were required to implement the ViRDCt model compared to the ViPRe model. As such, the ViRDCt model represents a cost-effective and precise approach to characterizing dam passage survival.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Benefit Analysis of CO 2 Delivery Options for Offshore Storage or Enhanced Oil Recovery

The analysis presented in this report evaluates the benefits of CO₂ offshore transport via pipeline or ship within the GOM. It takes a top-down framework to estimate the costs. First, this analysis designed a reduced-order model (ROM) based on the cash flows in the FECM/NETL CO₂ Transport Cost Model (also known as CO2_T_COM). The ROM takes capital expenses (CAPEX) and operating expenses (OPEX) to calculate the CO₂ breakeven price based on the cash flows. Second, this analysis developed regression models utilizing published data from other analyses to estimate CAPEX and OPEX. Since the ROM is a simplified cash flow calculation, it is easy to exchange the core regression models to estimate various costs. The ROM and regression models provided a framework that can be easily used by other researchers, decision-makers, operators, and regulators. The objective of this analysis is to assess the CO₂ breakeven cost range for pipeline and ship transport of captured CO₂ given the CO₂ source and storage reservoir located in the GOM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗