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At least 325 records · Page 18

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Molecular surface programming of rectifying junctions between InAs colloidal quantum dot solids

Heavy-metal-free III–V colloidal quantum dots (CQDs) show promise in optoelectronics: Recent advancements in the synthesis of large-diameter indium arsenide (InAs) CQDs provide access to short-wave infrared (IR) wavelengths for three-dimensional ranging and imaging. In early studies, however, we were unable to achieve a rectifying photodiode using CQDs and molybdenum oxide/polymer hole transport layers, as the shallow valence bandedge (5.0 eV) was misaligned with the ionization potentials of the widely used transport layers. This occurred when increasing CQD diameter to decrease the bandgap below 1.1 eV. Here, we develop a rectifying junction among InAs CQD layers, where we use molecular surface modifiers to tune the energy levels of InAs CQDs electrostatically. Previously developed bifunctional dithiol ligands, established for II-VI and IV-VI CQDs, exhibit slow reaction kinetics with III-V surfaces, causing the exchange to fail. Here, we study carboxylate and thiolate binding groups, united with electron-donating free end groups, that shift upward the valence bandedge of InAs CQDs, producing valence band energies as shallow as 4.8 eV. Photophysical studies combined with density functional theory show that carboxylate-based passivants participate in strong bidentate bridging with both In and As on the CQD surface. The tuned CQD layer incorporated into a photodiode structure achieves improved performance with EQE (external quantum efficiency) of 35% (>1 μm) and dark current density < 400 nA cm -2 , a >25% increase in EQE and >90% reduced dark current density compared to the reference device. This work represents an advance over previous III-V CQD short-wavelength IR photodetectors (EQE < 5%, dark current > 10,000 nA cm -2 ).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Redundancy-Guided Approach for the Hazard Analysis of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

We report digital instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades are a vital research area for the nuclear industry. Despite their performance benefits, deployment of digital I&C in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been limited. Digital I&C systems exhibit complex failure modes including common cause failures (CCFs), which can be difficult to identify. This paper describes the development of a redundancy-guided application of the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis and fault tree analysis for the hazard analysis of digital I&C in advanced NPPs. The resulting Redundancy-Guided Systems-Theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) is applied for the case study of a representative state-of-the-art digital reactor trip system. The analysis qualitatively and systematically identifies the most critical CCFs and other hazards of digital I&C systems. Ultimately, the RESHA can help researchers make informed decisions for how, and to what degree, defensive measures such as redundancy, diversity, and defense in depth can be used to mitigate or eliminate the potential hazards of digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A novel class of broad-spectrum active-site-directed 3C-like protease inhibitors with nanomolar antiviral activity against highly immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants

Antivirals with broad coronavirus activity are important for treating high-risk individuals exposed to the constantly evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) as well as emerging drug-resistant variants. We developed and characterized a novel class of active-site-directed 3-chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro) inhibitors (C2-C5a). Our lead direct-acting antiviral (DAA), C5a, is a non-covalent, non-peptide with a dissociation constant of 170 nM against recombinant SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro. The compounds C2-C5a exhibit broad-spectrum activity against Omicron subvariants (BA.5, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1.5) and seasonal human coronavirus-229E infection in human cells. Notably, C5a has median effective concentrations of 30-50 nM against BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in two different human cell lines. X-ray crystallography has confirmed the unique binding modes of C2-C5a to the 3CLpro, which can limit virus cross-resistance to emerging Paxlovid-resistant variants. We tested the effect of C5a with two of our newly discovered host-directed antivirals (HDAs): N-0385, a TMPRSS2 inhibitor, and bafilomycin D (BafD), a human vacuolar H+-ATPase [V-ATPase] inhibitor. We demonstrated a synergistic action of C5a in combination with N-0385 and BafD against Omicron BA.5 infection in human Calu-3 lung cells. Our findings underscore that a SARS-CoV-2 multi-targeted treatment for circulating Omicron subvariants based on DAAs (C5a) and HDAs (N-0385 or BafD) can lead to therapeutic benefits by enhancing treatment efficacy. Furthermore, the high-resolution structures of SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro in complex with C2-C5a will facilitate future rational optimization of our novel broad-spectrum active-site-directed 3C-like protease inhibitors.

3CLpro inhibitor↗

The 2022 applied physics by pioneering women: a roadmap

Abstract Women have made significant contributions to applied physics research and development, and their participation is vital to continued progress. Recognizing these contributions is important for encouraging increased involvement and creating an equitable environment in which women can thrive. This Roadmap on Women in Applied Physics, written by women scientists and engineers, is intended to celebrate women’s accomplishments, highlight established and early career researchers enlarging the boundaries in their respective fields, and promote increased visibility for the impact women have on applied physics research. Perspectives cover the topics of plasma materials processing and propulsion, super-resolution microscopy, bioelectronics, spintronics, superconducting quantum interference device technology, quantum materials, 2D materials, catalysis and surface science, fuel cells, batteries, photovoltaics, neuromorphic computing and devices, nanophotonics and nanophononics, and nanomagnetism. Our intent is to inspire more women to enter these fields and encourage an atmosphere of inclusion within the scientific community.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Future Physics Programme of BESIII

There has recently been a dramatic renewal of interest in hadron spectroscopy and charm physics. This renaissance has been driven in part by the discovery of a plethora of charmonium-like XYZ states at BESIII and B factories, and the observation of an intriguing proton-antiproton threshold enhancement and the possibly related X(1835) meson state at BESIII, as well as the threshold measurements of charm mesons and charm baryons. We present a detailed survey of the important topics in tau-charm physics and hadron physics that can be further explored at BESIII during the remaining operation period of BEPCII. This survey will help in the optimization of the data-taking plan over the coming years, and provides physics motivation for the possible upgrade of BEPCII to higher luminosity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Measurements of the center-of-mass energies of $e^+e^-$ collisions at BESIII*

During the 2016-17 and 2018-19 running periods, the BESIII experiment collected 7.5 fb -1 of $e^+e^-$ collision data at center-of-mass energies ranging from 4.13 to 4.44 GeV. These data samples are primarily used for the study of excited charmonium and charmoniumlike states. By analyzing the di-muon process $e^+e^-$ → $e^+e^-$ →, we measure the center-of-mass energies of the data samples with a precision of 0.6 MeV. Through a run-by-run study, we find that the center-of-mass energies were stable throughout most of the data-collection period.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Number of J/ψ events at BESIII*

Using inclusive decays of $J/\psi $, a precise determination of the number of $J/\psi $ events collected with the BESIII detector was performed. For the two data sets taken in 2009 and 2012, the numbers of $J/\psi $ events were recalculated to be $ (224.0 \pm 1.3)\times10^6 $ and $ (1088.5 \pm 4.4)\times10^6 $, respectively; these numbers are in good agreement with the previous measurements. For the $J/\psi $ sample taken in 2017–2019, the number of events was determined to be $ (8774.0 \pm 39.4)\times10^{6} $. The total number of $J/\psi $ events collected with the BESIII detector was determined to be $ (10087 \pm 44)\times10^{6} $, where the uncertainty is dominated by systematic effects, and the statistical uncertainty is negligible.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of integrated luminosities at BESIII for data samples at center-of-mass energies between 4.0 and 4.6 GeV*

Abstract The integrated luminosities of data samples collected in the BESIII experiment in 2016–2017 at center-of-mass energies between 4.19 and 4.28 GeV are measured with a precision better than 1% by analyzing large-angle Bhabha scattering events. The integrated luminosities of old datasets collected in 2010–2014 are updated by considering corrections related to detector performance, offsetting the effect of newly discovered readout errors in the electromagnetic calorimeter, which can haphazardly occur.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Luminosities and energies of e + e - collision data taken between $\sqrt{s}$=4.61 GeV and 4.95 GeV at BESIII*

From December 2019 to June 2021, the BESIII experiment collected approximately 5.85 fb -1 of data at center-of-mass energies between 4.61 and 4.95 GeV. This is the highest collision energy BEPCII has reached to date. The accumulated e + e - annihilation data samples are useful for studying charmonium(-like) states and charmed-hadron decays. By adopting a novel method of analyzing the production of $Λ^{+}_{c}$ $\overline{Λ}$ $^{-}_{c}$ pairs in e + e - annihilation, the center-of-mass energies are measured with a precision of ~0.6 MeV. Integrated luminosities are measured with a precision of better than 1% by analyzing the events of large-angle Bhabha scattering. These measurements provide important inputs to analyses based on these data samples.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Observation of the Y(4230) and a new structure in ${\boldsymbol e^+\boldsymbol e^- \boldsymbol\rightarrow \boldsymbol K^+\boldsymbol K^-\boldsymbol J/\boldsymbol\psi}$

The cross sections of $e^+e^- \rightarrow K^+K^-J/\psi$ at center-of-mass energies from 4.127 to 4.600 GeV are measured based on 15.6 fb -1 data collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring. Two resonant structures are observed in the line shape of the cross sections. The mass and width of the first structure are measured to be ($4225.3\pm2.3\pm21.5$) MeV and ($72.9\pm6.1\pm30.8$) MeV, respectively. They are consistent with those of the established $Y(4230)$. The second structure is observed for the first time with a statistical significance greater than 8σ, denoted as $Y(4500)$. Its mass and width are determined to be ($4484.7\pm13.3\pm24.1$) MeV and ($111.1\pm30.1\pm15.2$) MeV, respectively. The first presented uncertainties are statistical and the second ones are systematic. The product of the electronic partial width with the decay branching fraction $\Gamma(Y(4230)\to e^+ e^-) \mathcal{B}(Y(4230) \to K^+ K^- J/\psi)$ is reported.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for the weak decay ψ (3686) → $Λ^{+}_{c}$ $\overline{Σ}$ - + c.c. *

Using (448.1 ± 2.9) x 10 6 ψ (3686) events collected with the BESIII detector, we perform the first search for the weak baryonic decay ψ (3686) → $Λ^{+}_{c}$ $\overline{Σ}$ - + c.c. . The analysis procedure is optimized using a blinded method. No significant signal is observed, and the upper limit on the branching fraction ($\mathcal{B}$) of ψ (3686) → $Λ^{+}_{c}$ $\overline{Σ}$ - + c.c. is set as 1.4 x 10 -5 at the 90% confidence level.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Observations of the Cabibbo-Suppressed decays $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 , $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ - $π$ + and the Cabibbo-Favored decay $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$K$ - $π$ + $π$ + *

Using electron-positron annihilation data samples corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.5 fb -1 , collected by the BESIII detector in the energy region between $4599.53$ $MeV$ and $4698.82$ $MeV$ we report the first observations of the Cabibbo-suppressed decays $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 , $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ - $π$ + , and the Cabibbo-favored decay $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$K$ - $π$ + $π$ + with statistical significances of $7.9σ$, $7.8σ$, and Misplaced &, respectively. The branching fractions of these decays are measured to be $\mathcal{B}$($Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 ) = ($0.64 ± 0.09 ± 0.02$)%, $\mathcal{B}$($Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ - $π$ + ) = ($0.45 ± 0.07 ± 0.03$)%, and $\mathcal{B}$ $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$K$ - $π$ + $π$ + ) = ($1.90 ± 0.08 ± 0.09$)% where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. We find that the branching fraction of the decay $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 is about one order of magnitude higher than that of $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$ $π$ + .

$Λ^{+}_{c}$ baryon↗

Search for hidden-charm tetraquark with strangeness in e + e - → $K$ + $D^{*}_{s}$ - $D$ *0 + c.c.*

We report a search for a heavier partner of the recently observed Z cs (3985) - state, denoted as $Z^{'-}_{cs}$, in the process e + e - → $K$ + $D^{*}_{s}$ - $D$ *0 + c.c., based on e + e - collision data collected at the center-of-mass energies of $\sqrt{s}$ = 4.661, 4.682 and 4.699 GeV with the BESIII detector. The $Z^{'-}_{cs}$ is of interest as it is expected to be a candidate for a hidden-charm and open-strange tetraquark. A partial-reconstruction technique is used to isolate K + recoil-mass spectra, which are probed for a potential contribution from $Z^{'-}_{cs}$ → $D^{*}_{s}$ - $D$ *0 + (c.c.). We find an excess of $Z^{'-}_{cs}$ → $D^{*}_{s}$ - $D$ *0 + (c.c.) candidates with a significance of 2.1σ, after considering systematic uncertainties, at a mass of 4123.5 ± 0.7 stat. ± 4.7 syst. ) MeV/c 2 . As the data set is limited in size, the upper limits are evaluated at the 90% confidence level on the product of the Born cross sections (σ BORN ) and the branching fraction ($\mathcal{B}$) of $Z^{'-}_{cs}$ → $D^{*}_{s}$ - $D$ *0 , under different assumptions of the $Z^{'-}_{cs}$ mass from 4.120 to 4.140 MeV and of the width from 10 to 50 MeV at the three center-of-mass energies. The upper limits of σ BORN ∙ $\mathcal{B}$ are found to be at the level of $\mathcal{O}$(1) pb at each energy. Larger data samples are needed to confirm the $Z^{'-}_{cs}$ state and clarify its nature in the coming years.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Observation of e⁺e⁻ → pp$\bar{p}\bar{n}\pi^-$ + c. c.

Using data taken at 29 center-of-mass energies between 4.16 and 4.70 GeV with the BESIII detector at the Beijing Electron Positron Collider corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of approximately 18.8 fb -1 , the process e⁺e⁻ → pp$\overline{p}\overline{n}\pi^-$ + c. c. is observed for the first time with a statistical significance of 11.5σ. The average Born cross sections in the energy ranges of (4.160, 4.380) GeV, (4.400, 4.600) GeV and (4.610, 4.700) GeV are measured to be (21.5 ± 5.7 ± 1.2) fb, (46.3 ± 10.6 ± 2.5) fb and (59.0 ± 9.4 ± 3.2) fb, respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. The line shapes of the $\overline{p}\overline{n}$ and ppπ⁻ invariant mass spectra are consistent with phase space distributions, indicating that no hexaquark or di-baryon state is observed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Amplitude analysis of the decays and *

Abstract Usingannihilation data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93taken at the center-of-mass energyGeV with the BESIII detector, a joint amplitude analysis is performed on the decaysand(non-η). The fit fractions of individual components are obtained, and large interferences among the dominant components of the decays,,, andare observed in both channels. With the obtained amplitude model, the-even fractions ofand(non-η) are determined to be% and%, respectively. The branching fractions ofand(non-η) are measured to be% and%, respectively. The amplitude analysis provides an important model for the binning strategy in measuring the strong phase parameters ofwhen used to determine the CKM anglevia thedecay.

Physics↗

Determination of the number of ψ(3686) events taken at BESIII*

Abstract The number ofψ(3686) events collected by the BESIII detector during the 2021 run period is determined to be (2259.3±11.1)×10 6 by counting inclusiveψ(3686) hadronic events. The uncertainty is systematic and the statistical uncertainty is negligible. Meanwhile, the numbers ofψ(3686) events collected during the 2009 and 2012 run periods are updated to be (107.7±0.6)×10 6 and (345.4±2.6)×10 6 , respectively. Both numbers are consistent with the previous measurements within one standard deviation. The total number ofψ(3686) events in the three data samples is (2712.4±14.3)×10 6 .

Physics↗

Scintillator ageing of the T2K near detectors from 2010 to 2021

The T2K experiment widely uses plastic scintillator as a target for neutrino interactions and an active medium for the measurement of charged particles produced in neutrino interactions at its near detector complex. Over 10 years of operation the measured light yield recorded by the scintillator based subsystems has been observed to degrade by 0.9–2.2% per year. Extrapolation of the degradation rate through to 2040 indicates the recorded light yield should remain above the lower threshold used by the current reconstruction algorithms for all subsystems. This will allow the near detectors to continue contributing to important physics measurements during the T2K-II and Hyper-Kamiokande eras. Additionally, work to disentangle the degradation of the plastic scintillator and wavelength shifting fibres shows that the reduction in light yield can be attributed to the ageing of the plastic scintillator. The long component of the attenuation length of the wavelength shifting fibres was observed to degrade by 1.3–5.4% per year, while the short component of the attenuation length did not show any conclusive degradation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗