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DOE OSTI2026

Entity—Hardware-agnostic Particle-in-cell Code for Plasma Astrophysics. II. General Relativistic Module

Black hole (BH) environments often host plasmas that are fully collisionless or contain intrinsically collisionless regions, including relativistic jets and coronae, where particle energization is ubiquitous. Capturing the physics of these systems requires numerical methods capable of modeling relativistic, magnetized, collisionless plasmas in strong gravitational fields. In this work, we introduce the general relativistic module for Entity—the first open-source, coordinate-agnostic, performance-portable, particle-in-cell code. The code enables fast axisymmetric simulations of collisionless plasmas around BHs on any modern high-performance computing architecture (both GPUs and CPUs).

Galishnikova, Alisa [Flatiron Institute, New York,↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hot Circumsingle Disks Drive Binary Black Hole Mergers in Active Galactic Nucleus Disks

Abstract Binary black hole (BBH) mergers, particularly those with component masses in the pair-instability gap, may be produced by hierarchical mergers in the disks surrounding Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs). While the interaction of an embedded BBH with an AGN disk is typically assumed to facilitate a merger, recent high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations challenge this assumption. However, these simulations often have simplified treatments for gas thermodynamics. In this work, we model the possible consequence of various feedback from an embedded BBH with a simple model that maintains an enhanced temperature profile around each binary component. We show that when the minidisks around each BH become hotter than the background by a factor of three, the BBH orbital evolution switches from expansion to contraction. By analyzing the gravitational torque profile, we find that this change in direction is driven by a weakening of the minidisk spirals and their positive torque on the binary. Our results highlight the important role of thermodynamics around BBHs and its effect on their orbital evolution, suggesting that AGN disks could be efficient factories for BBH mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nucleosynthesis in Outflows from Black Hole–Neutron Star Merger Disks with Full GR(ν)RMHD

Abstract Along with binary neutron star mergers, the inspiral and merger of a black hole and a neutron star is a predicted site of r -process nucleosynthesis and associated kilonovae. For the right mass ratio, very large amounts of neutron-rich material (relative to the dynamical ejecta) may become unbound from the post-merger accretion disk. We simulate a suite of four post-merger disks with three-dimensional general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics with time-dependent Monte Carlo neutrino transport. We find that within 10 4 GM BH / c 3 (∼200–500 ms), the outflows from these disks are very close to the threshold conditions for robust r -process nucleosynthesis. For these conditions, the detailed properties of the outflow determine whether a full r -process can or cannot occur, implying that a wide range of observable phenomena is possible. We show that on average the disk outflow lanthanide fraction is suppressed relative to the solar isotopic pattern. In combination with the dynamical ejecta, these outflows imply a kilonova with both blue and red components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Accreting Supermassive Black Hole Buried in a Faint Dwarf Galaxy

Abstract In the last decade, there have been several discoveries of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in dwarf galaxies including an AGN in an ultracompact dwarf galaxy with a black hole mass >10 6 M ⊙ . However, finding a supermassive black hole (SMBH) in a dwarf low surface brightness (LSB) galaxy is rare. We report the discovery of a Seyfert type 2 class AGN that is associated with a nuclear SMBH of mass ∼6.5 × 10 6 M ⊙ in a dwarf LSB galaxy (μ 0,r > 23.8 mag arcsec −2 ) that we denote by MJ0818+2257. The galaxy was previously thought to be an outlying emission blob around the large spiral galaxy LEDA 1678924. In our current analysis, which includes the detection of the optical counterpart of MJ0818+2257, we study its ionized gas kinematics and find that the dynamical mass within the ionized gas disk is ∼5.3 × 10 9 M ⊙ . This is comparable to its stellar mass, which is ∼3 × 10 9 M ⊙ , and suggests that MJ0818+2257 is moderately dark matter dominated within the stellar disk. The SMBH-mass-to-galaxy-stellar-mass ratio isM BH /M(*) > 0.022, which is high compared to disk galaxies. Our detection of an SMBH in a bulgeless LSB dwarf galaxy raises questions about the growth of SMBHs in low-luminosity galaxies and suggests the possibility of detecting heavy seed black holes from early epochs in LSB dwarf galaxies in the low-redshift Universe.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phylogenetic conservation of soil bacterial responses to simulated global changes.

Soil bacterial communities are altered by anthropogenic drivers such as climate change-related warming and fertilization. However, we lack a predictive understanding of how bacterial communities respond to such global changes. Here, we tested whether phylogenetic information might be more predictive of the response of bacterial taxa to some forms of global change than others. We analysed the composition of soil bacterial communities from perturbation experiments that simulated warming, drought, elevated CO2 concentration and phosphorus (P) addition. Bacterial responses were phylogenetically conserved to all perturbations. The phylogenetic depth of these responses varied minimally among the types of perturbations and was similar when merging data across locations, implying that the context of particular locations did not affect the phylogenetic pattern of response. We further identified taxonomic groups that responded consistently to each type of perturbation. These patterns revealed that, at the level of family and above, most groups responded consistently to only one or two types of perturbations, suggesting that traits with different patterns of phylogenetic conservation underlie the responses to different perturbations. We conclude that a phylogenetic approach may be useful in predicting how soil bacterial communities respond to a variety of global changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Conceptual challenges in microbial community ecology'.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

MeVPrtl: An Event Generator for Dark Sector Particles in the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program

MeVPrtl is a modular event generator of beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics particles developed for use in the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. A large class of BSM physics models predict that new particles could be produced in the intense Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beams at Fermilab, travel to the SBN Program detectors, and decay into Standard Model (SM) particles. These new physics models are motivated by dark matter, the neutrino mass scale, and a solution to the strong CP problem. MeVPrtl provides an interface to implement the overlapping phenomenology of these models, and to connect them with meson flux inputs and object outputs used by the SBN Program's LArSoft-based detector simulation. Implementations for the Higgs portal, heavy neutral lepton, and heavy QCD axion models exist within MeVPrtl. In this paper these implementations and their validation, as well as details of the MeVPrtl interface, are specified.

Abratenko Ao, P.↗