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Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Final Report

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows that may be subject to constraints that create localized demand/capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool, based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas/Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents research results from the PDRC research activity. Companion papers present the Concept of Operations and a Technology Description.

tactical departure scheduling↗

Development and evaluation of a profile negotiation process for integrating aircraft and air traffic control automation

The development and evaluation of the profile negotiation process (PNP), an interactive process between an aircraft and air traffic control (ATC) that integrates airborne and ground-based automation capabilities to determine conflict-free trajectories that are as close to an aircraft's preference as possible, are described. The PNP was evaluated in a real-time simulation experiment conducted jointly by NASA's Ames and Langley Research Centers. The Ames Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) was used to support the ATC environment, and the Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) piloted cab was used to simulate a 4D Flight Management System (FMS) capable aircraft. Both systems were connected in real time by way of voice and data lines; digital datalink communications capability was developed and evaluated as a means of supporting the air/ground exchange of trajectory data. The controllers were able to consistently and effectively negotiate nominally conflict-free vertical profiles with the 4D-equipped aircraft. The actual profiles flown were substantially closer to the aircraft's preference than would have been possible without the PNP. However, there was a strong consensus among the pilots and controllers that the level of automation of the PNP should be increased to make the process more transparent. The experiment demonstrated the importance of an aircraft's ability to accurately execute a negotiated profile as well as the need for digital datalink to support advanced air/ground data communications. The concept of trajectory space is proposed as a comprehensive approach for coupling the processes of trajectory planning and tracking to allow maximum pilot discretion in meeting ATC constraints.

Green, Steven M.↗

Flight deck benefits of integrated data link communication

A fixed-base, piloted simulation study was conducted to determine the operational benefits that result when air traffic control (ATC) instructions are transmitted to the deck of a transport aircraft over a digital data link. The ATC instructions include altitude, airspeed, heading, radio frequency, and route assignment data. The interface between the flight deck and the data link was integrated with other subsystems of the airplane to facilitate data management. Data from the ATC instructions were distributed to the flight guidance and control system, the navigation system, and an automatically tuned communication radio. The co-pilot initiated the automation-assisted data distribution process. Digital communications and automated data distribution were compared with conventional voice radio communication and manual input of data into other subsystems of the simulated aircraft. Less time was required in the combined communication and data management process when data link ATC communication was integrated with the other subsystems. The test subjects, commercial airline pilots, provided favorable evaluations of both the digital communication and data management processes.

Waller, Marvin C.↗

NASA Langley's Formal Methods Research in Support of the Next Generation Air Transportation System

This talk will provide a brief introduction to the formal methods developed at NASA Langley and the National Institute for Aerospace (NIA) for air traffic management applications. NASA Langley's formal methods research supports the Interagency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) effort to define and develop the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS). The JPDO was created by the passage of the Vision 100 Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act in Dec 2003. The NGATS vision calls for a major transformation of the nation s air transportation system that will enable growth to 3 times the traffic of the current system. The transformation will require an unprecedented level of safety-critical automation used in complex procedural operations based on 4-dimensional (4D) trajectories that enable dynamic reconfiguration of airspace scalable to geographic and temporal demand. The goal of our formal methods research is to provide verification methods that can be used to insure the safety of the NGATS system. Our work has focused on the safety assessment of concepts of operation and fundamental algorithms for conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) and self- spacing in the terminal area. Formal analysis of a concept of operations is a novel area of application of formal methods. Here one must establish that a system concept involving aircraft, pilots, and ground resources is safe. The formal analysis of algorithms is a more traditional endeavor. However, the formal analysis of ATM algorithms involves reasoning about the interaction of algorithmic logic and aircraft trajectories defined over an airspace. These trajectories are described using 2D and 3D vectors and are often constrained by trigonometric relations. Thus, in many cases it has been necessary to unload the full power of an advanced theorem prover. The verification challenge is to establish that the safety-critical algorithms produce valid solutions that are guaranteed to maintain separation under all possible scenarios. Current research has assumed perfect knowledge of the location of other aircraft in the vicinity so absolute guarantees are possible, but increasingly we are relaxing the assumptions to allow incomplete, inaccurate, and/or faulty information from communication sources.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗

Simulated Evaluation of Strategic Conflict Management Capabilities for Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new air transportation service concept to carry passengers or cargo in metropolitan areas, leveraged by innovative aircraft and automation technologies. NASA has conducted a series of simulations to evaluate the UAM concept of operations and inform the development of airspace procedures and services for UAM operations. The latest set of simulations called “X5” were conducted to test a Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) prototype that NASA developed for UAM flight planning, strategic conflict management support, and data exchange between UAM operators. In these simulations, two strategic conflict management capabilities, Demand-Capacity Balancing (DCB) and Sequencing and Scheduling (S&S), were further investigated. This paper describes the system architecture designed for the X5 simulation activities, the sequence diagram for strategic conflict management, and the simulation environment in the Dallas/Fort Worth urban area. The simulation results based on several system performance metrics for evaluation show that a sequential application of DCB and S&S effectively works to distribute traffic demand and meet sequencing and spacing criteria by assigning ground delays, compared to the DCB only and S&S only cases.

Urban Air Mobility, Strategic Conflict Management,↗

Verbal Workload in Distributed Air Traffic Management

The effects of alternative traffic management possibilities on task performance and pilot controller verbal workloads were studied. Two new rule structures - sequencing and advisory - in addition to vectoring were studied in conjunction with CRT pilot displays incorporating traffic situation displays with and without aircraft flight path predictors. The sequencing and advisory systems gave increasing control responsibility to the pilots. It was concluded that distributed management systems could in practice significantly reduce controller verbal workload without reducing system performance. Implications of this conclusion suggest that distributed management would allow controllers to handle a larger volume of traffic safely either as a normal operating procedure or as a failure mode alternative in a highly automated ground centered system.

Kreifeldt, J. G.↗

Complexity Science Applications to Dynamic Trajectory Management: Research Strategies

The promise of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is strongly tied to the concept of trajectory-based operations in the national airspace system. Existing efforts to develop trajectory management concepts are largely focused on individual trajectories, optimized independently, then de-conflicted among each other, and individually re-optimized, as possible. The benefits in capacity, fuel, and time are valuable, though perhaps could be greater through alternative strategies. The concept of agent-based trajectories offers a strategy for automation of simultaneous multiple trajectory management. The anticipated result of the strategy would be dynamic management of multiple trajectories with interacting and interdependent outcomes that satisfy multiple, conflicting constraints. These constraints would include the business case for operators, the capacity case for the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), and the environmental case for noise and emissions. The benefits in capacity, fuel, and time might be improved over those possible under individual trajectory management approaches. The proposed approach relies on computational agent-based modeling (ABM), combinatorial mathematics, as well as application of "traffic physics" concepts to the challenge, and modeling and simulation capabilities. The proposed strategy could support transforming air traffic control from managing individual aircraft behaviors to managing systemic behavior of air traffic in the NAS. A system built on the approach could provide the ability to know when regions of airspace approach being "full," that is, having non-viable local solution space for optimizing trajectories in advance.

Sawhill, Bruce↗

National Campaign Partner Demonstration Team Annual Review April 2023

- NASA developed the Advanced Air Mobility Project (AAM) and the National Campaign (NC) series to identify and address challenges ahead for advanced air mobility concepts. - NC seeks to challenge industry as follows; - Execute progressively more difficult ecosystem-wide system-level safety and integration scenarios - Demonstrate practical and scalable system concepts - Build a knowledge base for development of requirements and standards - There are currently three focus areas within the NASA AAM NC Portfolio - Vehicle Development and Operations: test and inform capabilities that are critical enablers for AAM such as electric aircraft propulsion and increasing levels of automation - Airspace Design and Operations: develop and validate an operational concept to integrate and manage AAM traffic safely and efficiently - Community Integration: understand and address critical barriers to community integration, such as public acceptance (noise, security, privacy, etc.), supporting infrastructure, and local regulation

Eric N Becker↗

New Flight Rules to Enable the Era of Aerial Mobility in the National Airspace System

In the 21st Century, new aviation markets, vehicle types, and technologies are fast emerging, inspiring new operational concepts for the National Airspace System such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management and Urban Air Mobility. These novel operations envision a dramatic increase in aerial mobility, or the ability to navigate freely through the airspace with unprecedented access and operational flexibility. Implementing these concepts presents a major challenge to the existing operational modes of Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), developed under the limitations of early 20th Century technology and procedures to ensure safe navigation and separation from traffic. To meet this challenge and to support the needs of operators in the 21st Century and beyond, this paper proposes that VFR and IFR be augmented by new flight rules – Digital Flight Rules (DFR) – that leverage modern and emerging technologies and are not bound by restrictions borne of the state of technology 75-100 years ago. The objective of DFR is to provide safe and unfettered access to the airspace to all participating vehicle operators under all visibility conditions without incurring the limitations in operational flexibility inherent to IFR and even VFR. Advancements in communications, navigation, surveillance, aircraft connectivity, information access, automation technology, and supporting ground infrastructure provide the opportunity for the vehicle operator to engage at an unprecedented level in managing their flights regardless of flight visibility. Under DFR, these advancements enable the vehicle operator to assume full responsibility for traffic separation and therefore full trajectory management authority in all visibility conditions and airspace regions. The changes in roles and responsibilities are expected to enable greater airspace access and operational flexibility than afforded by IFR and VFR, thus enabling the emergence of new operations and a new era of advanced aerial mobility.

Mobility↗

Digital Flight: Enabling the Era of Scalable Mobility in the National Airspace System

In the 21st Century, new aviation markets, vehicle types, and technologies are fast emerging, inspiring new operational concepts for the National Airspace System such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management and Urban Air Mobility. These novel operations envision a dramatic increase in aerial mobility, or the ability to navigate freely through the airspace with unprecedented access and operational flexibility. Implementing these concepts presents a major challenge to the existing operational modes of Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), developed under the limitations of early 20th Century technology and procedures to ensure safe navigation and separation from traffic. To meet this challenge and to support the needs of operators in the 21st Century and beyond, this paper proposes that VFR and IFR be augmented by new flight rules – Digital Flight Rules (DFR) – that leverage modern and emerging technologies and are not bound by restrictions borne of the state of technology 75-100 years ago. The objective of DFR is to provide safe and unfettered access to the airspace to all participating vehicle operators under all visibility conditions without incurring the limitations in operational flexibility inherent to IFR and even VFR. Advancements in communications, navigation, surveillance, aircraft connectivity, information access, automation technology, and supporting ground infrastructure provide the opportunity for the vehicle operator to engage at an unprecedented level in managing their flights regardless of flight visibility. Under DFR, these advancements enable the vehicle operator to assume full responsibility for traffic separation and therefore full trajectory management authority in all visibility conditions and airspace regions. The changes in roles and responsibilities are expected to enable greater airspace access and operational flexibility than afforded by IFR and VFR, thus enabling the emergence of new operations and a new era of advanced aerial mobility.

Mobility↗

Pairwise Trajectory Management (PTM): Concept Overview

Pairwise Trajectory Management (PTM) is an Interval Management (IM) concept that utilizes airborne and ground-based capabilities to enable the implementation of airborne pairwise spacing capabilities in oceanic regions. The goal of PTM is to use airborne surveillance and tools to manage an "at or greater than" inter-aircraft spacing. Due to the precision of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information and the use of airborne spacing guidance, the PTM minimum spacing distance will be less than distances a controller can support with current automation systems that support oceanic operations. Ground tools assist the controller in evaluating the traffic picture and determining appropriate PTM clearances to be issued. Avionics systems provide guidance information that allows the flight crew to conform to the PTM clearance issued by the controller. The combination of a reduced minimum distance and airborne spacing management will increase the capacity and efficiency of aircraft operations at a given altitude or volume of airspace. This paper provides an overview of the proposed application, description of a few key scenarios, high level discussion of expected air and ground equipment and procedure changes, overview of a potential flight crew human-machine interface that would support PTM operations and some initial PTM benefits results.

Jones, Kenneth M.↗

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

Research Initiatives and Preliminary Results In Automation Design In Airspace Management in Free Flight

The NASA and the FAA have entered into a joint venture to explore, define, design and implement a new airspace management operating concept. The fundamental premise of that concept is that technologies and procedures need to be developed for flight deck and ground operations to improve the efficiency, the predictability, the flexibility and the safety of airspace management and operations. To that end NASA Ames has undertaken an initial development and exploration of "key concepts" in the free flight airspace management technology development. Human Factors issues in automation aiding design, coupled aiding systems between air and ground, communication protocols in distributed decision making, and analytic techniques for definition of concepts of airspace density and operator cognitive load have been undertaken. This paper reports the progress of these efforts, which are not intended to definitively solve the many evolving issues of design for future ATM systems, but to provide preliminary results to chart the parameters of performance and the topology of the analytic effort required. The preliminary research in provision of cockpit display of traffic information, dynamic density definition, distributed decision making, situation awareness models and human performance models is discussed as they focus on the theme of "design requirements".

Corker, Kevin↗

Pairwise Trajectory Management (PTM): Concept Description and Documentation

Pairwise Trajectory Management (PTM) is an Interval Management (IM) concept that utilizes airborne and ground-based capabilities to enable the implementation of airborne pairwise spacing capabilities in oceanic regions. The goal of PTM is to use airborne surveillance and tools to manage an "at or greater than" inter-aircraft spacing. Due to the accuracy of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information and the use of airborne spacing guidance, the minimum PTM spacing distance will be less than distances a controller can support with current automation systems that support oceanic operations. Ground tools assist the controller in evaluating the traffic picture and determining appropriate PTM clearances to be issued. Avionics systems provide guidance information that allows the flight crew to conform to the PTM clearance issued by the controller. The combination of a reduced minimum distance and airborne spacing management will increase the capacity and efficiency of aircraft operations at a given altitude or volume of airspace. This document provides an overview of the proposed application, a description of several key scenarios, a high level discussion of expected air and ground equipment and procedure changes, a description of a NASA human-machine interface (HMI) prototype for the flight crew that would support PTM operations, and initial benefits analysis results. Additionally, included as appendices, are the following documents: the PTM Operational Services and Environment Definition (OSED) document and a companion "Future Considerations for the Pairwise Trajectory Management (PTM) Concept: Potential Future Updates for the PTM OSED" paper, a detailed description of the PTM algorithm and PTM Limit Mach rules, initial PTM safety requirements and safety assessment documents, a detailed description of the design, development, and initial evaluations of the proposed flight crew HMI, an overview of the methodology and results of PTM pilot training requirements focus group and human-in-the-loop testing activities, and the PTM Pilot Guide.

Jones, Kenneth M.↗

Simulated Evaluation of Strategic Conflict Management Capabilities for Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new air transportation service concept to carry passengers or cargo in metropolitan areas, leveraged by innovative aircraft and automation technologies. NASA has conducted a series of simulations to evaluate the UAM concept of operations and inform the development of airspace procedures and services for UAM operations. The latest set of simulations called “X5” were conducted to test a Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) prototype that NASA developed for UAM flight planning, strategic conflict management support, and data exchange between UAM operators. In these simulations, two strategic conflict management capabilities, Demand-Capacity Balancing (DCB) and Sequencing and Scheduling (S&S), were further investigated. This paper describes the system architecture designed for the X5 simulation activities, the sequence diagram for strategic conflict management, and the simulation environment in the Dallas/Fort Worth urban area. The simulation results based on several system performance metrics for evaluation show that a sequential application of DCB and S&S effectively works to distribute traffic demand and meet sequencing and spacing criteria by assigning ground delays, compared to the DCB only and S&S only cases.

Simulation↗

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗

A System Concept for Facilitating User Preferences in En Route Airspace

The Federal Aviation Administration is trying to make its air traffic management system more responsive to the needs of the aviation community by exploring the concept of 'free flight' for aircraft flying under instrument flight rules. A logical first step toward free flight could be made without significantly altering current air traffic control (ATC) procedures or requiring new airborne equipment by designing a ground-based system to be highly responsive to 'user preference' in en route airspace while providing for an orderly transition to the terminal area. To facilitate user preference in all en route environments, a system based on an extension of the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is proposed in this document. The new system would consist of two integrated components. An airspace tool (AT) focuses on unconstrained en route aircraft (e.g., not transitioning to the terminal airspace), taking advantage of the relatively unconstrained nature of their flights and using long-range trajectory prediction to provide cost-effective conflict resolution advisories to sector controllers. A sector tool (ST) generates efficient advisories for all aircraft, with a focus on supporting controllers in analyzing and resolving complex, highly constrained traffic situations. When combined, the integrated AT/ST system supports user preference in any air route traffic control center sector. The system should also be useful in evaluating advanced free-flight concepts by serving as a test bed for future research. This document provides an overview of the design concept, explains its anticipated benefits, and recommends a development strategy that leads to a deployable system.

Vivona, R. A.↗