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At least 325 records · Page 18

Estimation of optical flow in airborne electro-optical sensors by stochastic approximation

The essence of motion or range estimation by passive electrooptical means is the ability to determine the correspondence of picture elements in pairs of image frames and to estimate their coordinates and their disparity (relative shifts) in the image plane of an electrooptical imaging sensor. The disparity can be in successive frames due to self-motion or in simultaneous frames of a stereo pair. A key issue is to provide these estimates on-line. This paper describes the theoretical background of such an interframe shift estimator. It is based on a stochastic gradient algorithm, specifically implementing a form of stochastic approximation, which can achieve rapid convergence of the shift estimate. Analytical and numerical simulation examples for random texture and isolated features validate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the estimator.

Merhav, S. J.↗

Empirical wind model for the middle and lower atmosphere. Part 1: Local time average

The HWM90 thermospheric wind model was revised in the lower thermosphere and extended into the mesosphere and lower atmosphere to provide a single analytic model for calculating zonal and meridional wind profiles representative of the climatological average for various geophysical conditions. Gradient winds from CIRA-86 plus rocket soundings, incoherent scatter radar, MF radar, and meteor radar provide the data base and are supplemented by previous data driven model summaries. Low-order spherical harmonics and Fourier series are used to describe the major variations throughout the atmosphere including latitude, annual, semiannual, and longitude (stationary wave 1). The model represents a smoothed compromise between the data sources. Although agreement between various data sources is generally good, some systematic differences are noted, particularly near the mesopause. Root mean square differences between data and model are on the order of 15 m/s in the mesosphere and 10 m/s in the stratosphere for zonal wind, and 10 m/s and 4 m/s, respectively, for meridional wind.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Aerodynamic Shape Optimization Based on Free-form Deformation

This paper presents a free-form deformation technique suitable for aerodynamic shape optimization. Because the proposed technique is independent of grid topology, we can treat structured and unstructured computational fluid dynamics grids in the same manner. The proposed technique is an alternative shape parameterization technique to a trivariate volume technique. It retains the flexibility and freedom of trivariate volumes for CFD shape optimization, but it uses a bivariate surface representation. This reduces the number of design variables by an order of magnitude, and it provides much better control for surface shape changes. The proposed technique is simple, compact, and efficient. The analytical sensitivity derivatives are independent of the design variables and are easily computed for use in a gradient-based optimization. The paper includes the complete formulation and aerodynamics shape optimization results.

Samareh, Jamshid A.↗

Modeling and Characterization of Damage Processes in Metallic Materials

This paper describes a broad effort that is aimed at understanding the fundamental mechanisms of crack growth and using that understanding as a basis for designing materials and enabling predictions of fracture in materials and structures that have small characteristic dimensions. This area of research, herein referred to as Damage Science, emphasizes the length scale regimes of the nanoscale and the microscale for which analysis and characterization tools are being developed to predict the formation, propagation, and interaction of fundamental damage mechanisms. Examination of nanoscale processes requires atomistic and discrete dislocation plasticity simulations, while microscale processes can be examined using strain gradient plasticity, crystal plasticity and microstructure modeling methods. Concurrent and sequential multiscale modeling methods are being developed to analytically bridge between these length scales. Experimental methods for characterization and quantification of near-crack tip damage are also being developed. This paper focuses on several new methodologies in these areas and their application to understanding damage processes in polycrystalline metals. On-going and potential applications are also discussed.

Glaessgen, E. H.↗

Genomes to ecosystem function: Targeting critical knowledge gaps in methanogenesis and translation to updated global biogeochemical models

Natural freshwater temperate wetland systems currently represent the largest natural source of atmospheric methane, but are relatively understudied using systems biology tools (e.g. meta-omics) compared to other high producing methane systems (e.g. peat, tropical, or reconstructed wetlands). Using field investigations at the NOAA operated sentinel site on Lake Erie, methane producing activities and responses to geochemical conditions will be determined along seasonal and spatial gradients (Objective 1). Here, a combination of high-throughput activity and gas measurements, combined with high-resolution systems biology and analytical methods, will provide in depth knowledge of the microbiological, chemical, and physical constraints on methane production in wetlands. Using laboratory microcosms, the formation of anoxic microsites and their capacity to facilitate methane production in wetland soils will be simulated (Objective 2). This objective will validate the findings from the field investigations, offering a more controlled environment for teasing out the role of different yet interrelated variables. Lastly, these field and laboratory data will be used for multi-scale, process-level evaluation of an ecosystem biogeochemical model that accommodates these newly identified processes and parameterizes representation of these processes along relevant environmental gradients (Objective 3).This research will identify multiple interacting geochemical, ecological, and metabolic constraints that are poorly understood, oversimplified, or missing in global biogeochemical methane models. This proposal targets the role of oxygen limitation on methane processes in soil domains, to improve reactive transport models of microbial carbon cycling across terrestrial-aquatic soils and generate data on nutrient cycling activities in Great Lake wetlands. This information could provide new insights into the microbial controllers of Lake Erie eutrophication.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analytic model for neutral penetration and plasma fueling

Neutral atoms recycled from wall interaction interact with confined plasma, thereby refuelling it, most strongly in the region closest to the wall. This occurs near the X-point in diverted configurations, or else near the wall itself in limited configurations. A progression of analytic models is developed for neutral density in the vicinity of a planar or linear source in an ionising domain. First-principles neutral transport simulations with DEGAS2 are used throughout to test the validity and limits of the model when using equivalent sources. The model is further generalised for strong plasma gradients or the inclusion of charge exchange. An important part of the problem of neutral fuelling from recycling is thereby isolated and solved with a closed-form analytic model. A key finding is that charge exchange with the confined plasma can be significantly simplified with a reasonable sacrifice of accuracy by treating it as a loss. The several assumptions inherent to the model (and the simulations with which it is compared) can be adapted according to the particular behaviour of neutrals in the divertor and the manner in which they cross the separatrix.

fusion plasma↗

Analytical study of subsonic turbulent boundary layer separation including viscous-inviscid interaction

The prediction of boundary layer deceleration and separation in regions of adverse pressure gradients are discussed as an unsolved problem of fundamental practical importance in aerodynamics. A three layered theoretical flow model of boundary layer separation including viscous-inviscid interaction was conceived for the case of subsonic two dimensional steady laminar flow.

Inger, G. R.↗

The NASA Low-Pressure Turbine Flow Physics Program

An overview of the NASA Lewis Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program will be presented. The program was established in response to the aero-engine industry's need for improved LPT efficiency and designs. Modern jet engines have four to seven LPT stages, significantly contributing to engine weight. In addition, there is a significant efficiency degradation between takeoff and cruise conditions, of up to 2 points. Reducing the weight and part count of the LPT and minimizing the efficiency degradation will translate into fuel savings. Accurate prediction methods of LPT flows and losses are needed to accomplish those improvements. The flow in LPT passages is at low Reynolds number, and is dominated by interplay of three basic mechanisms: transition, separation and wake interaction. The affecting parameters traditionally considered are Reynolds number, freestream turbulence intensity, wake frequency parameter, and the pressure distribution (loading). Three-dimensional effects and additional parameters, particularly turbulence characteristics like length scales, spectra and other statistics, as well as wake turbulence intensity and properties also play a role. The flow of most interest is on the suction surface, where large losses are generated as the flow tends to separate at the low Reynolds numbers. Ignoring wakes, a common flow scenario, there is laminar separation, followed by transition on the separation bubble and turbulent reattachment. If transition starts earlier the separation will be eliminated and the boundary layer will be attached leading to the well known bypass transition issues. In contrast, transition over a separation bubble is closer to free shear layer transition and was not investigated as well, particularly in the turbine environment. Unsteadiness created by wakes complicates the picture. Wakes induce earlier transition, and the calmed regions trailing the induced turbulent spots can delay or eliminate separation via shear stress modification. Three-dimensional flow physics and geometry will have strong effects. Altogether a very complex and challenging problem emerges. The objective of the program is to provide improved models and physical understanding of the complex flow, which are essential for accurate prediction of flow and losses in the LPT. Experimental, computational and analytical work as complementing and augmenting approaches are used. The program involves industry, universities and research institutes, and other government laboratories. It is characterized by strong interaction among participants, quick dissemination of results, and responsiveness to industry's needs. The presentation will describe the work elements. Highlighting some activities in progress are experiments on simulated blade suction surface in low-speed wind tunnels, on curved wall, and on a flat-plate, both with pressure gradient. In the area of computation, assessment of existing models is performed using RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) simulations. Laminar flow DNS was completed. Analytical studies of instability and receptivity in attached and separated flows were started. In the near future the program is moving to include wake effects and development of improved modeling. Experimental work in preparation stages are: (1) Addition of wakes to the curved tunnel experiment; (2) Low-speed rotating rig experiment on GE90 engine LPT; and (3) Transonic cascade. In the area of computation, it is expected to move from model assessment towards development of improved models. In addition, a new project of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of LPT is to begin and will provide numerical data bases. It is planned to implement the emerging improved models in a multistage turbomachinery code and to validate against the GE90 engine LPT.

Ashpis, David E.↗

Self‐Consistent Convolutional Density Functional Approximations: Application to Adsorption at Metal Surfaces

The exchange-correlation (XC) functional in density functional theory is used to approximate multi-electron interactions. A plethora of different functionals are available, but nearly all are based on the hierarchy of inputs commonly referred to as “Jacob's ladder.” This paper introduces an approach to construct XC functionals with inputs from convolutions of arbitrary kernels with the electron density, providing a route to move beyond Jacob's ladder. We derive the variational derivative of these functionals, showing consistency with the generalized gradient approximation (GGA), and provide equations for variational derivatives based on multipole features from convolutional kernels. A proof-of-concept functional, PBEq, which generalizes the PBEα framework with mathematical equation being a spatially-resolved function of the monopole of the electron density, is presented and implemented. It allows a single functional to use different GGAs at different spatial points in a system, while obeying PBE constraints. Analysis of the results underlines the importance of error cancellation and the XC potential in data-driven functional design. After testing on small molecules, bulk metals, and surface catalysts, the results indicate that this approach is a promising route to simultaneously optimize multiple properties of interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Emergence of a nocturnal low-level jet from a broad baroclinic zone

An analytical model is presented for the generation of a Blackadar-like nocturnal low-level jet in a broad baroclinic zone. The flow is forced from below (flat ground) by a surface buoyancy gradient and from above (free atmosphere) by a constant pressure gradient force. Diurnally-varying mixing coefficients are specified to increase abruptly at sunrise and decrease abruptly at sunset. With attention restricted to a surface buoyancy that varies linearly with a horizontal coordinate, the Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion, thermal energy, and mass conservation reduce to a system of one-dimensional equations that can be solved analytically. Sensitivity tests with southerly jets suggest that (i) stronger jets are associated with larger decreases of the eddy viscosity at sunset (as in Blackadar theory), (ii) the nighttime surface buoyancy gradient has little impact on jet strength, and (iii) for pure baroclinic forcing (no free-atmosphere geostrophic wind), the nighttime eddy diffusivity has little impact on jet strength, but the daytime eddy diffusivity is very important and has a larger impact than the daytime eddy viscosity. The model was applied to a jet that developed in fair weather conditions over the Great Plains from southern Texas to northern South Dakota on 1 May 2020. The ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for the afternoon prior to jet formation showed that a broad north-south-oriented baroclinic zone covered much of the region. The peak model-predicted winds were in good agreement with ERA5 winds and lidar data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) central facility in north-central Oklahoma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A step in the direction of resolving the paradox of Perdew–Zunger self-interaction correction. II. Gauge consistency of the energy density at three levels of approximation

The Perdew-Zunger(PZ) self-interaction correction (SIC) was designed to correct the one-electron limit of any approximate density functional for the exchange-correlation (xc) energy, while yielding no correction to the exact functional. Unfortunately, it spoils the slowly-varying-in-space limits of the uncorrected approximate functionals, where those functionals are right by construction. The right limits can be restored by locally scaling down the energy density of the PZ SIC in many-electron regions, but then a spurious correction to the exact functional would be found unless the self-Hartree and exact self-xc terms of the PZ SIC energy density were expressed in the same gauge. Only the local density approximation satisfies the same-gauge condition for the energy density, which explains why the recent local-scaling SIC (LSIC) is found here to work excellently for atoms and molecules only with this basic approximation, and not with the more advanced generalized gradient approximations (GGAs) and meta-GGAs, which lose the Hartree gauge via simplifying integrations by parts. The transformation of energy density that achieves the Hartree gauge for the exact xc functional can also be applied to approximate functionals. Doing so leads to a simple scaled-down self-interaction (sdSIC) correction that is typically much more accurate than PZ SIC in tests for many molecular properties (including equilibrium bond lengths). The present work shows unambiguously that the largest errors of PZ SIC applied to standard functionals at three levels of approximation can be removed by restoring their correct slowlyvarying- density limits. Here, it also confirms the relevance of these limits to atoms and molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

MCML: Combining physical constraints with experimental data for a multi-purpose meta-generalized gradient approximation

The predictive power of density functional theory for materials properties can be improved without increasing the overall computational complexity by extending the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) for electronic exchange and correlation to density functionals depending on the electronic kinetic energy density in addition to the charge density and its gradient, resulting in a meta-GGA. Here, we propose an empirical meta-GGA model that is based both on physical constraints and on experimental and quantum chemistry reference data. Overall, the resulting optimized meta-GGA MCML yields improved surface and gas phase reaction energetics without sacrificing the accuracy of bulk property predictions of existing meta-GGA approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytic evaluation of energy first derivatives for spin–orbit coupled-cluster singles and doubles augmented with noniterative triples method: General formulation and an implementation for first-order properties

The paper reports a formulation of analytic energy first derivatives for the coupled-cluster singles and doubles augmented with noniterative triples [CCSD(T)] method with spin–orbit coupling included at the orbital level and an implementation for evaluation of first-order properties. Here, the new development extends the applicability of relativistic coupled cluster methods for heavy-element chemistry and spectroscopy. Benchmark calculations of first-order properties including dipole moments and electric-field gradients using the corresponding exact two-component property integrals are presented for heavy-element containing molecules to demonstrate the usefulness of the present analytic scheme.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Entropy generation from hydrodynamic mixing in inertial confinement fusion indirect-drive targets

The increase in entropy from the physical mixing of two adjacent materials in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions and gas-filled hohlraums is analytically assessed. An idealized model of entropy generation from the mixing of identical ideal-gas particles across a material interface in the presence of pressure and temperature gradients is applied. Physically, mix-driven entropy generation refers to the work done by the gases in expanding into a larger common volume from atomic mixing under the condition of no internal energy change, or work needed to restore the initial unmixed state. Furthermore, the effect of a mix-generated entropy increase is analytically shown to lead to less compression of the composite ICF fluid under adiabatic conditions. The amount of entropy generation is estimated to be ~10 J for a Rayleigh–Taylor-induced micrometer-scale annular mixing layer between the solid deuterium–tritium fuel and (undoped) high-density carbon pusher of an imploding capsule at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). This level of entropy generation is consistent with lower-than-expected fuel compressions measured on the NIF [Hurricane et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 052704 (2019)]. The degree of entropy increase from mixing of high-Z hohlraum wall material and low-Z, moderate- to high-density gas fills is estimated to lead to ~100 kJ of heat generation for NIF-scale experiments [Moody et al., Phys. Plasmas 21, 056317 (2014)]. This value represents a significant fraction of the inferred missing x-ray drive energy based on observed delays in capsule implosion times compared with mainline simulations [Jones et al., Phys. Plasmas 19, 056315 (2012)].

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electrophoretic mobility of cells in a vertical Ficoll gradiant

The upward migration of living cells and test particles under the influence of a constant electric field in a low conductivity Ficoll gradient occurs at nearly constant velocity. Viscosity and neutral polymer concentration affect migration rate. Decreasing viscosity speeds up the particle migration, decreasing neutral polymer (Ficoll) concentration, slows particle migration, since electrophoretic mobility increases approximately linearly with neutral polymer concentration. Neutral polymers interact with the cell surface to effectively raise its zeta potential. An analytic function was developed from the known dependence of these physical variables on migration distance; the analysis expresses migration velocity as an explicit function of position in the density gradient. It predicts an almost linear increase in velocity of about 12 to 16% over the working region of the gradient. It was numerically integrated and correctly predicts cell migration distance vs time curves without the use of any fitted parameters. The resulting migration curves follow the expected slowly varying exponential form that closely resembles a straight line. The ability to determine standard electrophoretic mobilities from such curves depends on knowledge of the effect of Ficoll on the zeta potential of the cell type that is separated.

Plank, L. D.↗

Molecular Nature of Mineral-Organic Associations within Redox-Active Mountainous Floodplain Sediments

Floodplains are critical terrestrial-aquatic interfaces that act as hotspots of organic carbon (OC) cycling, regulating ecosystem carbon storage as well as export to riverine systems. Within floodplain sediments, regular flooding and textural gradients interact to create dynamic redox conditions. While anaerobic protection of OC upon burial is a well-recognized carbon storage mechanism in redox-active floodplain sediments, the impact of protective mineral-organic associations is relatively unknown. Here we determined the quantitative importance and chemical composition of mineral-organic associations along well-defined redox gradients emerging from textural variations and depth within meander sediments of the subalpine East River watershed (Gothic, CO). Here we characterized mineral-organic associations using a combination of sequential extractions, physical fractionation, and high-resolution mass spectrometry. Across the meander, we found that mineral-associated OC constitutes a significant fraction of total OC, and that extractable iron (Fe) and aluminum (Al) phases as well as high-density isolates were strongly correlated with total OC content, suggesting that mineral-organic associations are quantitatively important for floodplain sediment OC protection. Our mass spectrometry results showed OC associated with increasingly ordered Fe and Al phases are relatively enriched in low-molecular weight, oxidized, aromatic compounds. Surprisingly, however, total OC content showed weak or no correlation with indicators of anaerobic protection, such as relatively bioavailable OC pools (water-extractable and particulate OC) or the molecular weight and oxidation state of OC. Overall, this work highlights that protection of OC bound to reactive mineral phases-in addition to anaerobic protection-can play a quantitatively important role in controlling soil carbon storage in redox-active floodplain sediments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗