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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of Structures and Atomization Energies of Coinage Metals, (M)n, n < 20: Extrapolation of Normalized Clustering Energies to Predict the Cohesive Energy

The geometries of the group 11 coinage metals (n = 2-20) were optimized to determine the lowest energy isomers for each cluster size, singlets for even numbers and doublets for odd numbers. For copper and silver, 2-D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 6. For gold, 2D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 13. Normalized clustering energies were plotted as a function of cluster size (n-1/3, for n = 4-20) with various DFT functionals and the CCSD(T)-F12b method and were extrapolated to predict the bulk cohesive energy. In the case of copper and silver, there is excellent agreement between the cohesive energies predicted at the CCSD(T)-F12b level of theory and the experimental values. For gold, the CCSD(T)-F12b values needed to be corrected for spin-orbit relativistic effects to obtain good agreement with experiment. Electronic properties including the HOMO-LUMO gaps for the even clusters and the spin densities for the odd clusters were calculated. The lowest gap is predicted to occur for n = 16 where the HOMO and LUMO are very similar in shape.

Persuad, Rudradatt R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

First-Principles Simulations of CuCl in High-Temperature Water Vapor

Experimental data suggest that the solubility of copper in high-temperature water vapor is controlled by the formation of hydrated clusters of the form CuCl(H 2 O) n , where the average number of water molecules in the cluster generally increases with increasing density [Migdisov, A. A.; et al. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta2014, 129, 33–53]. However, the precise nature of these clusters is difficult to probe experimentally. Moreover, there are some discrepancies between experimental estimates of average cluster size and prior simulation work [Mei, Y. Geofluids2018, 2018, 4279124]. Here, we have performed first-principles Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to explore these clusters in finer detail. We find that molecular dynamics is not the most appropriate technique for studying aggregation in vapor phases, even at relatively high temperatures. Specifically, our MD simulations exhibit substantial problems in adequately sampling the equilibrium cluster size distribution. In contrast, MC simulations with specialized cluster moves are able to accurately sample the phase space of hydrogen-bonding vapors. At all densities, we find a stable, slightly distorted linear H 2 O–Cu–Cl structure, which is in agreement with the earlier simulations, surrounded by a variable number of water molecules. The surrounding water molecules do not form a well-defined second solvation shell but rather a loose network of hydrogen-bonded water with molecular CuCl on the outside edge of the water cluster. We also find a broad distribution of hydration numbers, especially at higher densities. In contrast to previous simulation work but in agreement with experimental data, we find that the average hydration number substantially increases with increasing density. Moreover, the value of the hydration number depends on the choice of cluster definition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Equipartition and the Temperature of Maximum Density of TIP4P/2005 Water

Here, we simulate TIP4P/2005 water in the temperature range of 257 to 318 K with time-steps δ = 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 fs. The density–temperature behavior obtained using 0.25 or 0.50 fs is in excellent agreement with each other but differs from those obtained using time steps that have been shown earlier to lead to a breakdown of equipartition. For δt = 0.25 or 0.50 fs, the temperature of maximum density (TMD) is 277.15 K and the density value is in close agreement with experiments. For δt = 1.00 fs, the TMD is 277.15 K, but the density value is shifted higher. For the other time steps considered here, the TMD is shifted to progressively lower values for longer time steps, a trend that holds for different thermostat/barostat combinations. Enhancing the water–water dispersion interaction, as has been recommended for simulating disordered proteins in TIP4P/2005, degrades the description of the liquid–vapor phase envelope. We present a simple physically transparent explanation that highlights the separation of the time scales between translational and rotational motion. We also develop a metric, χ, that we term the equipartition anomaly, to detect equipartition violations in simulations that include molecules that are treated as rigid objects. Calculating χ is shown to be straightforward and sensitive to equipartition violations. A key takeaway from this study is that using sufficiently short time steps (≤0.5 fs) to preserve equipartition is essential for obtaining meaningful liquid water properties and for producing reliable simulation data, as correct ensemble sampling is fundamental to ensure reproducibility across codes and simulation algorithms.

Asthagiri, Dilipkumar N. [Oak Ridge National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reparameterizing a Lipid Force Field Using Small-Angle X-ray Scattering to Improve Predictions of Multicomponent Membranes under Organic Solvent Stress

Understanding and predicting properties of lipid-bilayer membranes are essential to elucidating organismal physiology and pathophysiology. Therefore, substantial efforts have been undertaken to derive accurate molecular-mechanics force fields (FF) to allow simulation of their properties; however, much of these past efforts focused on tuning force fields to accurately reproduce the properties of model single-component membranes and not multicomponent or stressed membranes. Here, we tuned the CHARMM36 FF for a simple 2-component model of a Gram-positive bacterium. This updated force field is parametrized against a single condensed-phase property, the small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) intensities of the 2-component lipid system, using a version of ForceBalance implemented previously (named ForceBalance-SAS) with SAXS and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) intensities as optimization targets. After tuning, we observe improved agreement with the experimental SAXS of the membrane under 1-butanol and tetrahydrofuran solvent stresses, with a factor of 10.0 and 7.5 reduction, respectively, in χ 2 , the measure of the discrepancy between experimental and computed SAXS intensities. Furthermore, this reparametrized force field yielded improved agreement between experimental and simulated membrane thicknesses for the pure lipid systems. However, we note limitations in transferability and diagnose the source of such limitations, particularly the need for SANS in addition to SAXS.

Demerdash, Omar N. A. [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting the Operando XANES of Surface-Supported Subnanometer Clusters: When Fluxionality, Oxidation State, and Size Effect Fight.

X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy is widely used for operando catalyst characterization. We show that, for highly fluxional supported nanoclusters, the customary extraction of the oxidation state of the metal from the XANES data by fitting to the bulk standards is highly questionable. The XANES signatures as well as the apparent oxidation state for such clusters arise from a complex combination of many factors, and not only from the chemical composition in reaction conditions (e.g., oxygen content in oxidizing atmosphere). The thermally accessible isomerization and population of several structurally distinct cluster forms, cluster-support interaction, and intrinsic size effects all impact the metal oxidation state and XANES signal. We demonstrate this on copper oxide clusters with different compositions, Cu4Ox(x = 2-5) and Cu5Oy (y = 3, 5), deposited on amorphous alumina and ultrananocrystalline diamond, for which we computed the XANES spectra and compare the results to the experiment. We show in addition that fitting the experimental spectrum to calculated spectra of supported clusters can, in contrast, provide good agreement and insight into the spectrum-composition-structure relation. Experimental XANES interpreted using the proposed fitting scheme shows the partial reduction of Cu oxide clusters at rising temperatures, and pinpoints the specific stoichiometries that dominate in the ensemble of cluster states as the temperature changes.

Zandkarimi, Borna↗
DOE OSTI2020

Closing the Gap Between Experiment and Theory: Reactive Scattering of HCl from Au(111)

Accurate simulation of molecules reacting on metal surfaces, which can help in improving heterogeneous catalysts, remains out of reach for several reactions. For example, a large disagreement between theory and experiment for HCl reacting on Au(111) still remains, despite many efforts. In this work, the dissociative chemisorption of HCl on Au(111) is investigated with a recently developed MGGA density functional (MS-RPBEl) and a high-dimensional neural network potential. Additionally, previous experimental sticking probabilities are re-examined. A considerably improved agreement between experiment and theory is obtained, although theory still overestimates experimental sticking probabilities by a factor of 2-7 at the highest incidence energy. Computed and measured vibrational transition probabilities are also in improved agreement. Several dynamical effects such as angular steering and energy transfer from the molecule to the surface are found to play an important role.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comparative Study of Electrical Double Layer Effects for CO Reduction Reaction Kinetics

Solvation models describe how the interactions between the solutes and solvents affect the reactivity and selectivity in electrochemical processes. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating the effects of applied potential and electrical double layer on CO reduction (COR), comparing fully explicit, implicit, and hybrid solvation models at the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE) scale. We analyzed all crucial intermediates leading to the production of C 1 and C 2 products and found good agreement across these models. Some notable differences were observed in the implicit description of *C and *CO adsorption at higher overpotentials and overall trends in the adsorption energies within the hybrid model. Using this unified SHE framework, we built comparable microkinetic models for COR kinetics and rates. Despite small differences in thermodynamics, solvation-model-based microkinetic simulations showed good agreement for onset potentials against the benchmark experiment. Only qualitative difference was observed for C 1+ versus hydrogen evolution at high overpotentials for the implicit model. Finally, we constructed a generalized C 2 selectivity map in descriptor space (U SHE , ΔG electrolyte CO ), which highlights the limitations of a copper-based COR catalyst and guides the search for optimal descriptor parameters to maximize C 2 selectivity. In conclusion, these findings demonstrate the importance of considering electrical double layer effects in reduction reactions and offer a useful framework for comparing solvation models and predicting optimal electrochemical conditions for specific applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction and Experimental Verification of Electrolyte Solvation Structure from an OMol25-Trained Interatomic Potential

A molecular-level understanding of electrolyte solvation structure and ion–ion correlations is critical to developing next-generation battery chemistries. Atomistic simulation capabilities with sufficient accuracy, speed, and transferability to deliver reliable structural insights while avoiding arduous system-specific reparameterization are thus highly desirable. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) trained on large, chemically diverse data sets are revolutionizing computational chemistry, enabling molecular dynamics simulations of battery electrolytes with near-DFT accuracy over 10,000× faster than DFT. While previous MLIP training data sets with suitable elemental coverage for electrolytes have been based on inorganic materials, the Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) data set provides large-scale molecular DFT MLIP training data with broad elemental coverage and specifically samples tens of millions of electrolyte configurations. Here, we integrate computational modeling with experimental validation to systematically assess the ability of large-scale MLIPs pretrained on materials data or on OMol25 to accurately resolve nanoscale structural organization and ion-solvation characteristics in Na-ion battery electrolytes across diverse physicochemical conditions and compositional regimes. We find that the OMol25-trained Universal Model of Atoms (UMA-OMol) predicts experimentally measured densities and X-ray structure factors in substantially better agreement compared to state-of-the-art models trained only on inorganic materials data. Using UMA-OMol, we further analyze systematic trends in solvation structure as a function of cation identity, anion chemistry, salt concentration, and solvent topology. We observe that increasing system temperature amplifies the heterogeneity within the solvation environment, perturbing cation–solvent interactions and promoting the formation of contact ion pairs (CIPs). Moreover, subtle variations in the solvent topology of glyme-based electrolytes cause pronounced changes in ion correlations and solvation structure. The experimental agreement and microscopic insights shown here position OMol25-trained MLIPs as a practical route to predictive, high-throughput electrolyte simulations beyond the limits of classical force fields and direct DFT molecular dynamics, serving as a powerful tool for accelerating the design of next-generation Na-ion battery electrolytes and beyond.

MLIPs↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Experimental Phase Behavior of Ion-Doped Block Copolymers with Theoretical Predictions Based on Selective Ion Solvation

The effects of salt-doping on the morphological behavior of block copolymers are well established but remain poorly understood, partially because of the challenge of resolving electrostatics in a heterogeneous medium with low average permittivity. By employing a recently developed field theory, we analyze the phase behavior of polystyrene-b-poly(ethylene oxide) (SEO) copolymers doped with lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide salts (LiTFSI). Using a single fitting parameter, the ionic solvation radius, we obtain qualitative agreement between our theory and experimental data over a range of polymer molecular weights and copolymer compositions. Such agreement supports and highlights the need of solvation free energy to accurately describe the self-assembly of ion-doped block copolymers and demonstrates that experimentally observed dependence on molecular weight, not present in neutral block copolymers, can be rationalized by solvation effects. Overall, morphological variations are stronger than those predicted by the leading, linear order theory but can be captured by the full model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solvent Isotherms and Structural Transitions in Nanoparticle Superlattice Assembly

Here, we introduce a Molecular Theory for Compressible Fluids (MOLT-CF) that enables us to compute free energies and other thermodynamic functions for nanoparticle superlattices with any solvent content, including the dry limit. Quantitative agreement is observed between MOLT-CF and united-atom molecular dynamics simulations performed to assess the reliability and precision of the theory. Among other predictions, MOLT-CF shows that the amount of solvent within the superlattice decreases approximately linearly with its vapor pressure and that in the late stages of drying, solvent-filled voids form at lattice interstitials. Applied to single-component superlattices, MOLT-CF predicts fcc-to-bcc Bain transitions for decreasing vapor pressure and for increasing ligand length, both in agreement with experimental results. We explore the stability of other single-component phases and show that the C14 Frank-Kasper phase, which has been reported in experiments, is not a global free-energy minimum. Implications for precise assembly and prediction of multicomponent nanoparticle systems are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface Oxygen Depletion of Layered Transition Metal Oxides in Li-Ion Batteries Studied by Operando Ambient Pressure X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy

A new operando spectro-electrochemical setup was developed to study oxygen depletion from the surface of layered transition metal oxide particles at high degrees of delithiation. An NCM111 working electrode was paired with a chemically delithiated LiFePO 4 counter electrode in a fuel cell-inspired membrane electrode assembly (MEA). A propylene carbonate-soaked Li-ion conducting ionomer served as an electrolyte, providing both good electrochemical performance and direct probing of the NCM111 particles during cycling by ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The irreversible emergence of an oxygen-depleted phase in the O 1s spectra of the layered oxide particles was observed upon the first delithiation to high state-of-charge, which is in excellent agreement with oxygen release analysis via mass spectrometry analysis of such MEAs. By comparing the metal oxide-based O 1s spectral features to the Ni 2p 3/2 intensity, we can calculate the transition metal-to-oxygen ratio of the metal oxide close to the particle surface, which shows good agreement with the formation of a spinel-like stoichiometry as an oxygen-depleted phase. This new setup enables a deeper understanding of interfacial changes of layered oxide-based cathode active materials for Li-ion batteries upon cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Simulations of Siloxane Adsorption in Metal–Organic Frameworks

We present a transferable force field (FF) for simulating the bulk properties of linear and cyclic siloxanes and the adsorption of these species in metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Unlike previous FFs for siloxanes, our FF accurately reproduces the vapor–liquid equilibria of each species in the bulk phase. The quality of our FF combined with the Universal Force Field using standard Lorentz–Berthelot combining rules for MOF atoms was assessed in a wide range of MOFs without open metal sites, showing good agreement with dispersion-corrected density functional theory calculations. Predictions with this FF show good agreement with the limited experimental data for siloxane adsorption in MOFs that is available. As an example of using the FF to predict adsorption properties in MOFs, we present simulations examining entropy effects in binary linear and cyclic siloxane mixture coadsorption in the large-pore MOF with structure code FOTNIN.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ionic Associations and Hydration in the Electrical Double Layer of Water-in-Salt Electrolytes

Water-in-Salt-Electrolytes (WiSEs) are an exciting class of concentrated electrolytes finding applications in energy storage devices because of their expanded electrochemical stability window, good conductivity and cation transference number, and fire-extinguishing properties. These distinct properties are thought to originate from the presence of an anion-dominated ionic network and interpenetrating water channels for cation transport, which indicates that associations in WiSEs are crucial to understanding their properties. Currently, associations have mainly been investigated in the bulk, while little attention has been given to the electrolyte structure near electrified interfaces. Here, we develop a theory for the electrical double layer (EDL) of WiSEs, where we consistently account for the thermoreversible associations of species into Cayley tree aggregates. The theory predicts an asymmetric structure of the EDL. At negative voltages, hydrated Li + dominates, and cluster aggregation is initially slightly enhanced before disintegration at larger voltages. At positive voltages, when compared to the bulk, clusters are strictly diminished. Performing atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the EDL of WiSE provides EDL data for validation and bulk data for parametrization of our theory. Validating the predictions of our theory against MD showed good qualitative agreement. Furthermore, we performed electrochemical impedance measurements to determine the differential capacitance of the studied LiTFSI WiSE and also found reasonable agreement with our theory. Overall, the developed approach can be used to investigate ionic aggregation and solvation effects in the EDL, which, among other properties, can be used to understand the precursors for solid-electrolyte interphase formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ni and Co Incorporation in Forsterite: A Density Functional Theory Study with Hubbard Correction

Ni and Co are critical elements for the world economy and modern technologies. Mafic and ultramafic deposits represent low-grade yet abundant alternatives to traditional Ni and Co ores. Here, in this work, density functional theory (DFT) with the Hubbard U correction (DFT+U) was used to simulate the incorporation of Ni and Co in forsterite (Mg 2 SiO 4 ), the Mg endmember of olivine, a common mineral in mafic and ultramafic rocks. Hubbard U terms for Ni and Co were parametrized using a series of oxide, hydroxide, carbonate, silicate, and sulfide minerals relevant to extraction and recovery of Ni and Co from mafic and ultramafic deposits. Electronic, energetic, magnetic, and structural properties were considered in the parametrization. For each of Ni and Co, an effective Hubbard correction (U eff ) value that optimized agreement with either experimental data or a hybrid exchange-correlation functional for all of the minerals considered is reported. DFT+U ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of Ni and Co incorporated into the M1 and M2 octahedral sites of forsterite were then performed. Ni and Co substitution in the M1 site was more energetically favorable than substitution in the M2 site, in agreement with published partition coefficients. AIMD trajectories were used to compute extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra of Ni in the M1 and M2 sites for direct fitting to a published experimental spectrum of Ni in a natural San Carlos olivine sample. The results of the fit indicated that ordering of Ni in the M1 site was not as strong at the low Ni concentrations relevant to mafic and ultramafic silicate minerals as that at the higher concentrations of the Ni-Mg olivine solid solutions studied to date.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validated Reactive Force Field Quantifies MXene Interfacial Properties, Mechanics, and Thermal Transport

MXenes combine rich surface chemistry, mechanical strength, and high conductivity for a multitude of emerging applications. Predictive modeling supports accelerated materials designs and has been limited by the absence of validated and transferable force fields. Here, we introduce an interpretable, reactive INTERFACE force field (IFF and IFF-R) for Ti 3 C 2 T x MXenes that is trained based on chemical knowledge and achieves quantitative agreement with experiments across lattice parameters (<0.5%), density (<0.2%), liquid contact angles, Raman spectra, and the in-plane elastic modulus (∼320 GPa). The models cover surface terminations from hydroxyl (−OH) to fluorine (−F) groups and are extensible to other chemistries. We introduce pH-resolved surface chemistry and identify dopamine adsorption mechanisms at MXene–aqueous interfaces supported by QCM-D and UV–Vis experiments. The data reveal coplanar and perpendicular binding modes and concentration-dependent multilayer assembly. We predict previously inaccessible properties, including termination-dependent cleavage energies, interlayer shear moduli and dynamic shear failure, nanoindentation and brittle fracture, anisotropic in-plane and out-of-plane thermal conductivities, including the role of defects. Agreement with available experimental data is consistently close and exceeds DFT accuracy across the benchmark properties examined. The IFF/IFF-R model is compatible with CHARMM, AMBER, OPLS, and CVFF force fields for simulations of MXenes with diverse surface terminations, electrolyte interfaces, biointerfaces, and polymer composites without additional parameters. Parameter sets, 3D models, and analysis scripts are provided for community use. The validated, reactive, and transferable IFF framework facilitates predictive design of MXene-based films, membranes, sensing interfaces, and composites.

MXene↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Determination of Biomass-derived Renewable Carbon in Fuels from Coprocessing of Bio-oils in Refinery Using a Stable Carbon Isotopic Approach

Increasing renewable carbon incorporation into conventional fuels through coprocessing with vacuum gas oil (VGO, a petroleum refining feedstock) is a critical step in biofuels development, scaling-up, adoption and associated GHG reduction. Optimization of the co-processing parameters maximizes incorporation of the renewable carbon in the fuel products. Quantitative determination of the renewable carbon content in the co-processed products provides direct evaluation of the parameters. The co-processing bio-oil with VGO through hydrocracking (HC) or fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) system resulted in carbon isotopic fractionation that prevented the direct use of the isotope mixing model for quantifying the renewable carbon. Here, we report an algorithm of using a stable carbon isotope approach to quantify the renewable carbon content in co-processing biofuel products through high-precision ?13C analysis. A controlled experiment carried out by blending a fossil diesel (-29.013‰) with a bio-diesel (-30.099‰) at various blending levels up to 98.0/2.0 wt% is presented and has demonstrated the applicability of this approach. The carbon isotope fractionation factors for the bio-oil co-processing were obtained by using a 14C-derived isotope-mixing model. The ?13C method was tested by co-processing 13C-labeled bio-crude and natural woody biomass-derived fast pyrolysis (FP) and catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) bio-oils with VGO. The results were verified by 14C accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) method (ASTM-D6866) and compared with the yield mass balance (YMB) method. Strong agreement between d13C and 14C AMS methods demonstrated the applicability of the ?13C method to quantify renewable carbon content in co-processing fuel products and guide the co-processing optimization

Li, Zhenghua↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular-Level Insights into the NMR Relaxivity of Gadobutrol Using Quantum and Classical Molecular Simulations

MRI is an indispensable diagnostic tool in modern medicine; however, understanding the molecular-level processes governing NMR relaxation of water in the presence of MRI contrast agents remains a challenge, hindering the molecular-guided development of more effective contrast agents. By using quantum-based polarizable force fields, the first-of-its-kind molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of Gadobutrol are reported where the 1 H NMR longitudinal relaxivity r 1 of the aqueous phase is determined without any adjustable parameters. The MD simulations of r 1 dispersion (i.e., frequency dependence) show good agreement with measurements at frequencies of interest in clinical MRI. Importantly, the simulations reveal key insights into the molecular level processes leading to r 1 dispersion by decomposing the NMR dipole–dipole autocorrelation function G(t) into a discrete set of molecular modes, analogous to the eigenmodes of a quantum harmonic oscillator. The molecular modes reveal important aspects of the underlying mechanisms governing r 1 , such as its multiexponential nature and the importance of the second eigenmodal decay. By simply analyzing the MD trajectories on a parameter-free approach, the Gadobutrol simulations show that the outer-shell water contributes ∼50% of the total relaxivity r 1 compared to the inner-shell water, in contrast to simulations of (nonchelated) gadolinium-aqua where the outer shell contributes only ∼15% of r 1 . The deviation between simulations and measurements of r 1 below clinical MRI frequencies is used to determine the low-frequency electron-spin relaxation time for Gadobutrol, in good agreement with independent studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data Assimilative Optimization of WSA Source Surface and Interface Radii using Particle Filtering

TheWang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model estimates solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field polarity in the inner heliosphere using global photospheric magnetic field maps. WSA employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to determine the Sun's global coronal magnetic field. The PFSS and SCS models are connected through two radial parameters, the source surface and interface radii, which specify the overlap region between the inner SCS and outer PFSS models. Though both radii values are adjustable, they have typically been fixed to 2.5 solar radii. Our work highlights how solar wind predictions improve when the radii are allowed to vary over time. Data assimilation using particle filtering (sequential Monte Carlo) is used to infer optimal values over a fixed time window. Solar wind model predictions and satellite observations are compared with a newly developed quality-of-agreement prediction metric. The agreement metric between the model and observations is assumed to correspond to the probability of the two key WSA model parameters, the source surface and interface radii, where the highest metric value implies the optimal radii.We find that the optimal particle filter values of solar radii can perform twice as well as standard values for an exploratory period during Carrington Rotation 1901, with these values also reducing nonphysical kinking effects seen in solar magnetic field lines. Data assimilation choices of input realization and time frame have implications for variation in the solar wind over time. We present this work's theoretical context and practical applications for prediction accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗