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Managing Risks Associated with Global Nuclear Energy Expansion: Emerging Challenges and Cooperative Solutions Workshop Summary Report.

Global nuclear energy has reached a critical juncture. The footprint of nuclear energy is growing and will continue to grow in coming decades to meet increasing global energy demands, desires for energy security, and mounting concerns about climate change. This growth includes construction of reactors in countries new to the nuclear energy enterprise, in addition to expansion of existing programs. The lack of operational experience coupled with weak regulatory systems in some countries raises the potential of a nuclear accident. The expansion of nuclear energy is also met with an increasingly complex threat environment, with threats to nuclear security from non-state actors as well as the continued risks of state proliferation. The trend towards increasingly digitized and networked nuclear facilities significantly expands operational uncertainty and adds complexity to implementing safeguards and security. These factors merit fresh consideration of potential safety, safeguards, security, and cyber (3SC) risks, as well as approaches for managing those risks in an integrated, sustainable, and internationally cooperative manner. In an effort to explore the emerging challenges and cooperative solutions to the global expansion of nuclear energy The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs and Sandia National Laboratories convened a group of more than thirty experts from government, national laboratories, non-government organizations, and academia on May 5th, 2016 at George Washington University to discuss these issues in a not-for-attribution environment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effects of Nuclear Weapons

The study of the effects of nuclear weapons has provided hundreds of persons a lifelong career in a technical field. This presentation is just a snapshot of the topic covering the four defined burst regions, documents devoted to the topic, and the actual effects of a nuclear explosive device. With the aid of previously released atomic testing movies and superb Hollywood actor narrations, we examine the effects of thermal, blast, radiation, EMP on both structures and people. Lastly, the effects of a 1 kt nuke detonated at the intersection of South Las Vegas Blvd. and Tropicana wiping out the Excalibur, MGM Grand, New York New York, and Tropicana hotels and the M&M store.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Benchmark Analysis of the HTR-10 with the MAMMOTH Reactor Physics Application

This report documents a set of benchmarks used to validate the Serpent and MAMMOTH neutron transport models of the HTR-10 reactor developed at Idaho National Laboratory. The high-fidelity Serpent Monte Carlo models of the HTR-10 critical and full core configurations include both random, discrete distributions of TRISO particles in the pebbles and random, discrete pebble distributions in the pebble bed core. The Serpent results agree very well with the critical and control rod worth measurements provided in the International Re- actor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) report if the ENDF/B-VII.r1 data- set is used. These Serpent models are subsequently used to prepare cross sections and flux tallies in a 10 coarse energy group structure for the MAMMOTH Reactor Physics MOOSE- based application. We find that MAMMOTH can reproduce the Monte Carlo solution for the HTR-10 reactor by using the PJFNK-SPH equivalence method. In all cases studied, the MAMMOTH results are within 120 pcm of the Monte Carlo reference calculation and the maximum errors in neutron absorption and generation rates are within 0.536% and 0.215% from the reference calculation, respectively. A set of benchmark exercises from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) HTR-10 benchmark in IAEA-TECDOC-1382 were conducted including parts B1 (critical), B2 (temperature coefficient) and B3 (control rod worth). The results we obtain for the critical core are in excellent agreement with the expected value and we confirm that with ENDF/B-VII.r1 data we match the critical eigen- value keff=1 to within 100 pcm. Our temperature coefficient calculation is consistent with the VSOP results generated by the German participants. The Chinese and South African VSOP models produce lower temperature coefficients, a fact that was noted in the original IAEA benchmark, but for which no explanation was provided. Both a full and single control rod worth calculations with Serpent and MAMMOTH agree well with the results from the IAEA benchmark. Finally, and most importantly, this work demonstrates that MAM- MOTH can recover the Monte Carlo high-fidelity solutions to an excellent accuracy using the PJFNK-SPH method. This sets the stage for the ultimate goal of using MAMMOTH in transient, multi-physics scenarios where correction of the cross sections is obtained for steady-state conditions and then used in the transient scenario for which no Monte-Carlo solution is available.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Russian Model of Internet Control and Its Significance

Russia has emerged as an exemplar of an innovative and experimental – though not always completely consistent or successful – alternative approach to information manipulation and control that differs significantly from the more-often discussed Chinese “Great Firewall” system and other approaches with an emphasis on systemic technical censorship. The Russian model relies on a mix of less overt, more plausibly deniable, legalistic, and often non-technical mechanisms to manipulate online information flows, narratives, and framings, to affect and shape public opinion without resort to universal censorship. The government uses surveillance, a panoply of vague laws, the prosecution or censorship of exemplars, proxy actors and hard to track extra-legal pressures, hacking and leaks, and a heavy emphasis on content production and manipulation to influence narratives and shape public opinion. This model for the domestic control of information not only fits with Russia’s own political system, but is likely to prove more resonant and easier to emulate across many other countries in which a systematic-censorship approach is not technologically or politically feasible. The learning and experimentation involved in this type of domestic information manipulation also has direct applicability to the use of information operations in international political and military competition. The future of this model will likely depend on continuing innovation, not least on the leveraging of advances in artificial intelligence and big data analysis. If successful, however, this might look very different from the future of information control in China – and have significantly different repercussions for democracies and the international system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Developing a System for Testing Computational Social Models using Amazon Mechanical Turk

The US faces persistent, distributed threats from malevolent individuals, groups and organizations around the world. Computational Social Models (CSMs) help anticipate the dynamics and behaviors of these actors by modeling the behavior and interactions of individuals, groups and organizations. For strategic planners to trust the results of CSMs, they must have confidence in the validity of the models. Establishing validity before model use will enhance confidence and reduce the risk of error. One problem with validation is designing an appropriate controlled test of the model, similar to the testing of physical models. Lab experiments can do this, but are often limited to small numbers of subjects, with low subject diversity and are often in a contrived environment. Natural studies attempt to test models by gathering large-scale observational data (e.g., social media) however this loses the controlled aspect. We propose a new approach to run large-scale, controlled online experiments on diverse populations. Using Amazon Mechanical Turk, a crowdsourcing tool, we will draw large populations into controlled experiments in a manner that was not possible just a few years ago.

42 ENGINEERING↗

History of Industrial Control System Cyber Incidents

For many years malicious cyber actors have been targeting the industrial control systems (ICS) that manage our critical infrastructures. Most of these events are not reported to the public, and the threats and incidents to ICS are not as well-known as enterprise cyber threats and incidents. This paper is a brief study of publically reported cyber threats to critical infrastructure that sheds light on the growing cyber threats to ICS devices. It is important to note that this list is not all inclusive. The events selected in this study highlight the significant threats and incidents to industrial control systems and demonstrate that significant cyber incidents to ICS devices are growing and becoming more complex.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Solar Bankability Data to Advance Transactions and Access (SB-DATA) Final Technical Report

The DOE project “Solar Bankability Data to Advance Transactions and Access”, known in the solar industry and referred to in this report as “Orange Button”, had project objectives of convening key stakeholder participants in the solar project lifecycle to develop a data taxonomy that meets to the solar industry’s needs for standardized data types for use in solar projects. Additional Orange Button deliverables included the development of an online data exchange to act as a clearinghouse of data that conformed to the data standard and additional solar industry data, and a Solar Data Translation Platform that could transform legacy solar project data to conform to the Orange Button data standard. All of these objectives were achieved. The Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) provided program management, industry participant recruiting and convening, worked with the solar industry to define the scope of the Orange Button data taxonomy, and documented and delivered the taxonomy data requirements to funded project partners to develop both the taxonomy and the data conversion tools. Further efforts included performing extensive industry outreach and awareness to encourage adoption of the Orange Button taxonomy by the solar industry by enumerating the cost saving benefits of using the taxonomy and the public benefit of the increased use of solar energy due to increased bankability and viability of solar development projects. Solar PV panel and component prices have fallen in the last decade, while soft costs have remained stubbornly high and can account for as much as 64% of the total cost of a new solar system. Part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, Orange Button enabled the creation and adoption of industry-led open data standards for rapid and seamless information exchange across the solar value chain, from origination to decommissioning. Standardizing data will reduce soft costs by making it easier to share solar data and speeding up processes. The taxonomy is a product of solar industry participants convening to identify the pain points caused by incompatible data, and to agree on and standardize data types to be used by the actors in the solar project lifecycle. This report focuses on the SEPA led first phase of Orange Button project that included industry outreach and recruiting participants for five industry working groups, widespread industry outreach to increase awareness and encourage eventual adoption of the taxonomy, and the definition of the scope, use cases, and supporting data types of the Orange Button taxonomy. The solar industry has been receptive of the completed Orange Button taxonomy. In SEPA’s work, 401 solar industry participants facilitated by SEPA defined the scope, use cases, and requirements for the taxonomy leading to over 150 taxonomy early adopters incorporating the taxonomy into their software products serving the solar industry, and several large investors and banks have started projects to enable them to utilize the taxonomy to gain back-office efficiencies. Moving forward, as the solar industry more widely embraces the Orange Button taxonomy and begins realizing the tangible benefits of adoption at scale, we expect further pressure on solar soft costs and increases in the bankability of solar projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Energy Efficient Mobility Systems 2018 Annual Progress Report

Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) Program activities during FY 2018 focused on analytical research to understand the impacts that new mobility technologies and services will have at the vehicle, traveler, and overall transportation system-level. This research included the development of vehicle and transportation system simulation models and tools to evaluate the complex interactions among the various actors within the mobility landscape, analysis of empirical data to characterize which solutions may provide the largest benefits, and development of new control systems and algorithms that use vehicle connectivity and automation to improve the performance and efficiency of individual vehicles as well as the overall traffic system This document presents a brief overview of the EEMS Program and documents progress and results for projects within four of the five EEMS activity areas: (1) the SMART (Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation) Mobility Lab Consortium, (2) High Performance Computing and Big Data Solutions for Mobility Data, (3) Advanced R&D Projects conducted by industry and academia, and (4) Core Modeling, Simulation, and Evaluation, Similarly, the remaining EEMS activity area – (5) Living Labs (managed under VTO’s Technology Integration Program). Each of the individual progress reports provide a project overview and highlights of the technical results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Toward Uncertainty Quantification for Supervised Classification

Our goal is to develop a general theoretical basis for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning models. Current machine learning accuracy-based validation metrics indicate how well a classifier performs on a given data set as a whole. However, these metrics do not tell us a model's efficacy in predicting particular samples. We quantify uncertainty by constructing probability distributions of the predictions made by an ensemble of classifiers. This report details our initial investigations into uncertainty quantification for supervised machine learning. We apply an uncertainty analysis to the problem of malicious website detection. Machine learning models can be trained to find suspicious characteristics in the text of a website's Uniform Resource Locator (URL). However, given the vast numbers of URLs and the ever changing tactics of malicious actors, it will always be possible to find sets of websites which are outliers with respect to a model's hypothesis. Therefore, we seek to understand a model's per-sample reliability when classifying URL data. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FY2019 Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Annual Progress Report

EEMS Program activities during FY 2019 focused on analytical research to understand the impacts that new mobility technologies and services will have at the vehicle, traveler, and overall transportation system-level. This research included the development of vehicle and transportation system simulation models and tools to evaluate the complex interactions among the various actors within the mobility landscape, analysis of empirical data to characterize which solutions may provide the largest benefits, and development of new control systems and algorithms that use vehicle connectivity and automation to improve the performance and efficiency of individual vehicles as well as the overall traffic system. This document presents a brief overview of the EEMS Program and documents progress and results for projects within four of the five EEMS activity areas: (1) the SMART (Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation) Mobility Lab Consortium, (2) High Performance Computing and Big Data Solutions for Mobility Data, (3) Advanced R&D Projects conducted by industry and academia, and (4) Core Modeling, Simulation, and Evaluation, Similarly, the remaining EEMS activity area – (5) Living Labs (managed under VTO’s Technology Integration Program). Each of the individual progress reports provide a project overview and highlights of the technical results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Value of Motorcycle Electrification in Mexico City

Local and city governments worldwide are looking to adopt emerging technologies and mobility approaches, such as electric vehicles, as they pursue their environmental and economic goals. Commercially available electric vehicles include buses, automobiles, motorcycles, and other two-wheelers. Electrifying transportation is critical to achieve urban sustainability, but it also raises challenges for private and public actors. Jurisdictions across countries are seeking to answer big questions, including how the transportation sector can be electrified, what impacts are priorities, and how such impacts can be obtained.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Scaling Up Energy Efficiency Investment in Emerging Markets - Private Sector Perspectives

Since 2000, electricity demand has flattened and decoupled from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. This trend is anticipated to continue for the next several decades and is largely attributed to the implementation of energy efficiency measures. However, non-OECD countries (emerging markets) have experienced, and are projected to continue experiencing, increasing electricity demands. If the world is to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement, annual investments in clean energy and energy efficiency need to increase by a factor of six by 2050, compared to 2015. Information presented in this paper is based on qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods to provide an empirical understanding of barriers to private sector clean energy investment including microgrid development, energy efficiency, smart grid development, and utility-scale wind and solar in emerging markets. Through literature review, a survey, and a series of webinar dialogues, USAID and the U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) solicited input from private sector actors, including developers, project financiers, manufacturers and technical assistance service providers, on the challenges they face to market entry in emerging markets, and their suggestions for improving market competitiveness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of MURR LEU Conversion on Beryllium Reflector Lifetime

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M 3 ) has developed and is pursuing an integrated approach to address the persistent threat posed by unintentional proliferation of nuclear materials. The NNSA M 3 approach reduces the risk of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium falling into the hands of non-state actors by minimizing the use of and, when possible, eliminating weapons-usable nuclear material around the world. In this geopolitical context, most research and test reactors, both domestic and international, have completed or started a program of conversion from the use of HEU to low-enriched uranium (LEU) as fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of the Dominican Republic’s Commercial and Industrial Scale Energy Efficiency Sector

In this paper the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) explores the commercial and industrial (C&I) energy efficiency market in the Dominican Republic, including the market’s current status. During NREL’s engagement with its Dominican counterparts, NREL noted market gaps, identified by both public and private sector market actors, that became the focus of this report. The intent is two-fold. First, to assist potential customers, project financing institutions, and various government agencies understand where the energy efficiency sector stands, in August 2020. Second to help them recognize the scope, scale, and opportunity for energy savings from untapped potential large reductions in energy expenditures. This research identified how savings could be captured through improvements to the enabling environment, technical capacity, and level of activity in the sector. Moreover, it determined that through taking action to catalyze energy efficiency investment, the government could make significant progress towards its self-declared NDC goals, and result in tens of millions of dollars in savings across the Dominican economy for both the private and public sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Smart Grids in Emerging Markets - Private Sector Perspectives

Information presented in this report is based on qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods to provide an empirical understanding of barriers to private sector clean energy investment in emerging markets as it relates to smart grids. Through literature review, a survey, and a series of webinar dialogues, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) solicited input from private sector actors, including developers, project financiers, manufacturers, and technical assistance service providers on the challenges they face to market entry in developing and emerging markets, and their suggestions for improving market competitiveness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Blockchain based Communication Architectures with Applications to Private Security Networks

Existing communication protocols in high consequence security networks are highly centralized. While this naively makes the controls easier to physically secure, external actors require fewer resources to disrupt the system because there are fewer points in the system can be destroyed or interrupted without the entire system failing. We present a solution to this problem using a proof-of-work-based blockchain implementation built on MultiChain. We construct a test-bed network containing two types of data input: visual imagers and microwave sensor information. These data types are ubiquitous in perimeter intrusion detection security systems and allow a realistic representation of a real-world network architecture. The cameras in this system use an object detection algorithm to nd important targets in the scene. The raw data from the camera and the outputs from the detection algorithm are then placed in a transaction on the distributed ledger. Similarly, microwave data is used to detect relevant events and are placed in a transaction. These transactions are then bundled into blocks and broadcast to the rest of the network using the Bitcoin-based MultiChain protocol. We develop five tests to examine the security metrics of our network. We performed the five security metric test using different sized networks from 7 to 39 nodes to determine how the metrics scale with respect to size. We nd that when compared to a centralized architecture our implementation provides a resiliency increase that is expected from a blockchain-based protocol without slowing the system so much that a human operator would notice. Furthermore, our approach is able to detect tampering in real time. Based on these results, we theorize that security networks in general could use a blockchain-based approach in a meaningful way.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automated Cyber Security Testing Platform for Industrial Control Systems

Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are a complex system of coupled physics controlled by a network of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs). These PLCs communicate process data across the network to coordinate control actions with each other and inform the operators of process variables and control decisions. Networking the PLCs allows more effective process control and provides the operator more information which results in more efficient plant operation. This interconnectivity creates new security issues, as operators have more access to the plant controls, so will bad actors. As plant networks become more digitized and encompass more sophisticated controllers, the network surface exposed to cyber interference grows. Understanding the dynamics of these coupled systems of physics, control logic, and network communications is critical to their protection. The research into the cybersecurity of the Operational Technologies of NPPs is developing and requires a platform that can allow high fidelity physics simulations to interact with digital networks of controllers. This will require three main components: a network simulation environment, a physics simulator, and virtual PLCs (vPLC) that represent typical industry hardware. A platform that incorporates these three components to provide the most accurate representation of actual NPP networks and controllers is developed in this paper.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗