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At least 307 records · Page 17

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of an open-source segmented blade design tool

As wind turbines continue to grow ever larger to reduce the cost of energy, their blades follow suit, with the largest commercial offshore blades extending past 100 m. Massive blades such as these raise key transportation and manufacturing challenges, especially for land-based turbines. Segmented blades are one solution and are garnering increased industry and research interest. In this work, a detailed mechanical joint model is integrated into the Wind-Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM ® ), which will facilitate future segmented blade research and optimization. WISDEM is used to design a wind turbine with 100-m segmented blades. This wind turbine design is compared to other machines with 100-m monolithic blades designed for rail-transportability. The designs are compared in terms of blade mass and cost, turbine capital cost, annual energy production, and levelized cost of energy, with monolithic designs being the lightest and most economical. However, this result may vary by wind plant location. A variety of segmentation joint types exist, and they will inevitably vary in parameters such as cost, spanwise location, and physical characteristics. This work examines the sensitivity of wind turbine design drivers and annual energy production to a variety of the aforementioned parameters, using the open-source wind turbine design codes OpenFAST and WISDEM, finding that joint mass, stiffness, and location can have significant effects on design drivers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Load Control for Frequency Response - A Literature Review

As electricity grids employ greater fractions of renewable energy, which introduce additional variability and uncertainty in the net load, balancing electrical load and generation becomes more challenging. This paper reviews the literature documenting physical simulations and real systems that employ load control (LC) for frequency response and other grid services, which balance net load on the grid and prevent unwanted frequency excursions. Apart from academic and simulation studies, few sources exist on large-scale laboratory hardware testing or actual real-world systems that employ LC for frequency response, and we review them here. Four types of systems that we consider are: 1) Laboratory-based LC experiments, 2) Isolated microgrids that employ LC, 3) Larger grids that employ LC and 4) vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, using electric vehicles (EVs). In general, these systems have successfully used LC to meet their objectives, which are often keeping grid frequency within a required band. However, LC struggled to balance grid frequency in an isolated system powered by a single wind turbine, and V2G technology requires refinement in communication and control to provide optimal regulation that adheres to industry standards. As LC grows in the energy industry, we have three main recommendations: 1) encouraging system operators who use LC to publish system characteristics and lessons learned; 2) transitioning more LC theoretical/simulated systems to physical experiments, and physical experiments to real-world pilot systems; 3) demonstrating load control to support isolated, high-wind-contribution systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗

2021 Cost of Wind Energy Review [Slides]

This analysis uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based, offshore, and distributed wind power in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2021 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This study represents the 11th annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

REopt Lite User Manual

REopt Lite evaluates the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics, wind, combined heat and power, and electric and thermal storage at commercial and small industrial sites. It allows building owners to identify the system sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the site’s life cycle cost of energy. REopt Lite also estimates the amount of time on-site generation and storage can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage and allows the user the choice of optimizing for energy resilience. It is primarily used to inform project development decisions and to support research on the factors that drive project feasibility for market development and policy analysis. It is available through a web interface, application programing interface, and open-source code. This user manual provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Instrumentation for the Investigation of Pitch Bearing Design and Reliability

Recently, there has been an increasing level of industry interest in pitch system and pitch bearing reliability. Pitch bearings are used in wind turbines to connect the blade root to the hub. Some populations of pitch bearings have demonstrated a 12% failure rate in 20 years. As rotor diameters continue to increase for tall land-based and offshore wind turbines, pitch bearings are becoming even larger in diameter, which can make them vulnerable to deflections and consequent stress concentrations. There is an increased need to more accurately study pitch bearing deformations, misalignment, load distributions, and contact stresses. A significant body of work has investigated fatigue lives and wear characteristics of pitch bearings on ground-based test rigs. NREL has also recently begun a research program related to pitch bearing reliability, recognizing its growing importance for wind turbines. The purpose of this paper is to describe a set of instrumentation that was recently installed on a 1.5 MW wind turbine at the NREL Flatirons Campus and provide an example data set. To the authors' knowledge, this will be the first publicly available pitch bearing data collection campaign on an operational wind turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Raptor Monitoring and Minimization Technologies

In June 2023, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 34 - Working Together to Resolve the Environmental Effects of Wind Energy (WREN) - organized a forum to discuss monitoring and minimization strategies used to study raptor interactions with wind energy facilities. The forum included experts in raptor movement and behavior, minimization measures, technology validation, and wind energy development from four countries. The experts represented a range of international stakeholder groups including private industry, financial institutions, government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and wildlife consultants. This educational brief summarizes the discussion during the forum and written comments from additional participants who could not attend the live event. Relevant literature was used to provide additional context when needed.

minimization↗

Manufacture and testing of biomass-derivable thermosets for wind blade recycling

Wind energy is helping to decarbonize the electrical grid, but wind blades are not recyclable, and current end-of-life management strategies are not sustainable. Here, to address the material recyclability challenges in sustainable energy infrastructure, we introduce scalable biomass-derivable polyester covalent adaptable networks and corresponding fiber-reinforced composites for recyclable wind blade fabrication. Through experimental and computational studies, including vacuum-assisted resin-transfer molding of a 9-meter wind blade prototype, we demonstrate drop-in technological readiness of this material with existing manufacture techniques, superior properties relative to incumbent materials, and practical end-of-life chemical recyclability. Most notable is the counterintuitive creep suppression, outperforming industry state-of-the-art thermosets despite the dynamic cross-link topology. Overall, this report details the many facets of wind blade manufacture, encompassing chemistry, engineering, safety, mechanical analyses, weathering, and chemical recyclability, enabling a realistic path toward biomass-derivable, recyclable wind blades.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The build-up of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide necessary conditions for interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to contribute to decadal timescale transitions of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This can be viewed as a corollary to subseasonal westerly wind burst events contributing to El Niño interannual timescale transitions. In this work, a long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations. If above a necessary ocean heat content threshold, the convergence associated with westerly anomaly near-equatorial surface winds associated with El Niño activity can draw that heat content equatorward to sustain anomalously warm western and central Pacific SSTs. These are associated with positive precipitation and convective heating anomalies, a Gill-type response and wind stress curl anomalies that continue to feed warm water into the near-equatorial western Pacific. These conditions then sustain the decadal-timescale transition to positive IPO (with the opposite sign for transition to negative IPO). Associated central equatorial Pacific convective heating anomalies produce SLP and wind stress anomalies in the North and South Pacific that can excite westward-propagating off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves to contribute to the western Pacific thermocline depth and consequent heat content anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind Supply Chain Security: Hardware Enumeration and Analysis

This project, undertaken by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), focused on the enumeration and analysis of six key devices important to wind technologies. The devices analyzed included Beckhoff Bus Terminal Controllers (BK1120 and BC9000), a Beckhoff Economy Built-in Panel PC (CP6231), an N-Tron Managed Industrial Ethernet Switch (711FX3), a Bachmann M1 Gateway, and a Bachmann Smart Power Plant Controller. Device selection was driven by availability and budget constraints, with several components sourced from existing wind farms and others procured through a co-agreement with another WETO-funded project. The project's primary objective was to create a hardware bill of materials (HBOM) for each device, identifying and documenting all components to assess potential security and supply chain risks. A detailed analysis revealed over 750 unique components across the six devices, with 80% successfully identified and accompanied by datasheets. Notably, Texas Instruments emerged as the leading supplier, providing over 16% of the components, followed by ON Semiconductor at 11.3%, Analog Devices at 5.3%, and Renesas Electronics Corp at 4.1%. Other notable vendors included Toshiba Corporation, iC-Haus Corporation, Atmel, Vishay, and STMicroelectronics. The enumeration process involved thorough documentation of each component, including its designation, quantity, identifiers, pin package, description, vendor, model, and country of origin. This process provided valuable insights into the complexity and diversity of the electronic systems within these wind devices. It also highlighted the distinct separation of components between vendors, suggesting a trend of vendor-specific component usage. Key findings from the project emphasized the importance of broadening the scope of vendor analysis in future research to gain a comprehensive understanding of component distribution and commonality. The identification of vendor-specific component usage patterns offers new avenues for research and underscores the significance of continued investigation in this field. Overall, this project provides critical insights into the component composition of wind devices, aiding in the development of improved supply chain management and component sourcing strategies. The results contribute valuable knowledge to the wind technology sector, laying the groundwork for enhanced security and resilience in wind energy systems.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

To What Extent Will Decarbonization Deepen the Conversation Between Industry and the Grid?

Decarbonization - the transition away from un-mitigated fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy - requires big changes from both power and process systems. On the power system side, those changes are expected to include large increases in variable generation, e.g., from wind and solar, which has near-zero marginal costs and at large shares can produce infrequent but consequential energy droughts. On the process systems side, industries are investigating their options for direct and indirect electrification, the latter exemplified by replacing fossil fuel inputs with zero-carbon, energy-carrying chemicals like hydrogen and ammonia produced via electrochemical processes. The economic features of these changes within the larger context of power and process systems suggest that their realization could be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how industrial facilities interact with the grid. For example, the dominant type of demand participation in power markets could change from today's focus on load reductions at peak times to a new focus on shifting electricity use, enabled in part by large-scale product storage, to take advantage of renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed and to avoid consumption during high-price energy droughts. This talk will describe these and other possible design and operational approaches from grid and industrial economic perspectives, culminating in an enumeration of open problems that lie at the interface of today and tomorrow's power and process systems.

co-design↗

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

2019 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2019 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the ninth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2020 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the tenth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Critical Role of Water for Energy Transitions Technologies: A Literature Review

This report summarizes the water inputs associated with four technologies playing diverse roles in energy transitions: hydrogen, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind, and batteries. Information in this report is drawn from multiple sources, including peer-reviewed literature, industry and international agency reports, EcoInvent life cycle inventory database, and subject matter expert (SME) consultations. Where possible, insights that characterized water requirements for specific stages of the technology development (e.g., operations, manufacturing, and mining) were prioritized over broader cradle-to-gate assessment values. Furthermore, both direct and indirect water requirements (i.e., associated with associated energy inputs) were considered in this literature review.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Sandia Wind Energy Program - FY23 Accomplishments

This report summarizes Fiscal Year 2023 accomplishments from Sandia National Laboratories Wind Energy Program. The portfolio consists of funding provided by the DOE EERE Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO), the Sandia Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program, and private industry. These accomplishments were made possible through capabilities investments by WETO, internal Sandia investment, and partnerships between Sandia and other national laboratories, universities, and research institutions around the world. Sandia’s Wind Energy Program is primarily built around core capabilities as expressed in the strategic plan thrust areas, with 29 staff members in the Wind Energy Design and Experimentation department and the Wind Energy Computational Sciences department leading and supporting R&D at the time of this report. Staff from other departments at Sandia support the program by leveraging Sandia’s unique capabilities in other disciplines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗