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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Cross Correlating Cosmological Probes for LSST & CMB-S4

The upcoming years will be populated with state-of-the-art Stage-IV cosmological surveys. This paper forecasts the cosmological information we expect to constrain using probes from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and CMB-S4. We explore the effectiveness of different large-scale-structure probes, including the power spectra of galaxy weak lensing, galaxy position, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlations. We use correlated lognormal simulations with the expected redshift distributions, galaxy number densities, and noise levels of the LSST survey. For CMB weak lensing, we use CMB-S4 lensing simulations with anticipated noise levels to obtain the expected error bars of each probe. We investigate the constraining power of the cosmological parameters for the individual probes and their combinations in an idealized scenario. We do not take into account astrophysical and observational parameters such as galaxy bias variations and photometric redshift un- certainties. Overall, we find the auto-correlated probes hold stronger constraints on cosmological parameters than the cross-correlated probes due to kernel differences. However, the cross-correlation of galaxy clustering and CMB lensing is very comparable to the auto-correlation of galaxy clustering with only an 8% stronger constraint in S8. It will be important for future surveys to use these auto and cross probes in combination due to the different astrophysical and systematic effects involved in CMB and late-time galaxy data. When systematics are added to this analysis, the cross probes will serve as a check for systematic biases in individual probes. In addition, we find a significant increase in constraint using all four probes in combination. This can be illustrated by the increase in constraint of S8 by 93.2% comparing galaxy clustering auto-correlation to a combination of all probes. Our study is a first step toward forecasting the high-precision cosmological constraints we expect to obtain using the next generation of large-scale structure probes.

Gibbins, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hardware Demonstration of Weak Grid Oscillations in Grid-Following Converters

The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduces some unexpected dynamic issues, including low-frequency oscillations. In this paper, a laboratory-scale grid-following voltage-source converter (VSC) system is implemented to demonstrate weak grid oscillations. Grid-following control is applied in VSC to provide active power, reactive power or ac voltage control. The test bed is also replicated in electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation environment (MAT-LAB/SimPowerSystems) for benchmark purpose. Case studies are carried out to demonstrate low-frequency oscillations under real power/ac voltage or real power/reactive power control. The excellent agreement between the simulation and experimental results ensures that the two test beds are exchangeable and can be used for testing oscillation mitigation strategies in future research.

Bao, Li↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local self-interaction correction method with a simple scaling factor

A recently proposed local self-interaction correction (LSIC) method [Zope et al., J. Chem. Phys., 2019, 151, 214108] when applied to the simplest local density approximation provides a significant improvement over standard Perdew–Zunger SIC (PZSIC) for both equilibrium properties such as total or atomization energies as well as properties involving stretched bond such as barrier heights. The method uses an iso-orbital indicator to identify the single-electron regions. To demonstrate the LSIC method, Zope et al. used the ratio z σ of von Weizsäcker τ W σ and total kinetic energy densities τ σ , (z σ = τ W σ /τ σ ) as a scaling factor to scale the self-interaction correction. The present work further explores the LSIC method using a ratio of orbital and spin densities as a simpler scaling factor in place of the ratio of kinetic energy densities. We compute a wide array of both, equilibrium and non-equilibrium properties using LSIC and orbital scaling methods using this simple scaling factor and compare them with previously reported results. Our study shows that LSIC with the simple scaling factor performs better than PZSIC, with results comparable to those obtained by LSIC( z σ ) for most properties, but has slightly larger errors than LSIC( z σ ). Furthermore, we study the binding energies of small water clusters using both scaling factors. Our results show that LSIC with zσ has limitations in predicting the cluster binding energies of weakly bonded systems due to the inability of z σ to distinguish weakly bonded regions from slowly varying density regions. LSIC when used with the density ratio as a scaling factor, on the other hand, provides a good description of water cluster binding energies, thus highlighting the appropriate choice of the iso-orbital indicator.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of breakup and coalescence in fine-scale bubble-induced turbulence. II. Kinematics

This second part of our research explores the kinematic aspect of fine-scale bubble-induced turbulence (BIT) to (i) present the effect of bubble breakup and coalescence and (ii) compare it against the universal kinematic fine-scale turbulence characteristics reported in the literature. To this end, we simulate a dilute bubbly system of 0.5% void fraction using two distinct numerical simulations. In the volume-of-fluid (VoF) simulation, bubbles undergo breakup and coalescence. In the immersed boundary method (IBM) simulation, however, they act as rigid spheres. We also perform a simulation of classical homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT). The first important outcome of this study is that BIT is radically different from HIT in terms of its kinematic fine-scale characteristics. In the vorticity-dominating regions, BIT exhibits a weak vortex stretching. This weak vortex stretching is due to (a) the intermediate strain-rate eigenvalues skewed weakly to positive and (b) the extensive strain-rate eigenvector aligning perpendicular to the vorticity vector. The BIT has, on average, not only a weak enstrophy production but also a weak strain production in strain-dominating regions. The weak strain production is due to (a) the presence of vortex stretching in highly strained fluid elements and (b) the absolute magnitude of compressive strain-rate eigenvalue being as close to the extensive strain-rate eigenvalue. Thus, none of the kinematic fine-scale HIT characteristics is noted for BIT. The second important conclusion is that bubble breakup and coalescence play little to no influence on the kinematics of fine-scale BIT as VoF and IBM simulations produce similar results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle collisionality in scaled kinetic plasma simulations

Kinetic plasma processes, such as magnetic reconnection, collisionless shocks, and turbulence, are fundamental to the dynamics of astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. Simulating these processes often requires particle-in-cell (PIC) methods, but the computational cost of fully kinetic simulations can necessitate the use of artificial parameters, such as a reduced speed of light and ion-to-electron mass ratio, to decrease expense. While these approximations can preserve overall dynamics under specific conditions, they introduce nontrivial impacts on particle collisionality that are not yet well understood. In this work, we develop a method to scale particle collisionality in simulations employing an artificial speed of light and/or an artificial ion-to-electron mass ratio. By introducing species-dependent scaling factors, we independently adjust inter- and intra-species collision rates to better replicate the collisional properties of the physical system. Our approach maintains the fidelity of electron and ion transport properties while preserving critical relaxation rates, such as energy exchange timescales, within the limits of weakly collisional plasma theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate the accuracy of this scaling method through benchmarking tests against theoretical relaxation rates and connecting to fluid theory, highlighting its ability to retain key transport properties. Existing collisional PIC implementations can be easily modified to include this scaling, which will enable deeper insights into the behavior of marginally collisional plasmas across various contexts.

Totorica, S. R. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United State↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accurate shear estimation with fourth-order moments

ABSTRACT As imaging surveys progress in exploring the large-scale structure of the Universe through the use of weak gravitational lensing, achieving sub-per cent accuracy in estimating shape distortions caused by lensing, or shear, is imperative for precision cosmology. In this paper, we extend the Fourier power function shapelets (FPFS) shear estimator using fourth-order shapelet moments and combine it with the original second-order shear estimator to reduce galaxy shape noise. We calibrate this novel shear estimator analytically to a sub-per cent level-accuracy using the AnaCal framework. This higher order shear estimator is tested with realistic image simulations, and after analytical correction for the detection/selection bias and noise bias, the multiplicative shear bias $|m|$ is below $3\times 10^{-3}$ (99.7 per cent confidence interval) for both isolated and blended galaxies. Once combined with the second-order FPFS shear estimator, the shape noise is reduced by $\sim 35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for isolated galaxies in simulations with Hyper Suprime-Cam and Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time observational conditions. However, for blended galaxies, the effective number density does not significantly improve with the combination of the two estimators. Based on these results, we recommend exploration of how this framework can further reduce the systematic uncertainties in shear due to point spread function leakage and modelling error, and potentially provide improved precision in shear inference in high-resolution space-based images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational constraints on early dark energy

In this paper, we review and update constraints on the Early Dark Energy (EDE) model from cosmological data sets, in particular Planck PR3 and PR4 cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and large-scale structure (LSS) data sets including galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam and KiDS+VIKING-450, as well as BOSS/eBOSS galaxy clustering and Lyman-[Formula: see text] forest data. We detail the fit to CMB data, and perform the first analyses of EDE using the CAMSPEC and Hillipop likelihoods for Planck CMB data, rather than Plik, both of which yield a tighter upper bound on the allowed EDE fraction than that found with Plik. We then supplement CMB data with LSS data in a series of new analyses. All these analyses are concordant in their Bayesian preference for [Formula: see text]CDM over EDE, as indicated by marginalized posterior distributions. We perform a series of tests of the impact of priors in these results, and compare with frequentist analyses based on the profile likelihood, finding qualitative agreement with the Bayesian results. All these tests suggest prior volume effects are not a determining factor in analyses of EDE. This work provides both a review of existing constraints and several new analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross Correlating Cosmological Probes for Stage-IV Surveys

The next few years will be populated with Stage-IV cosmological surveys. This paper forecasts the cosmological information we expect to constrain using probes from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and CMB Stage-4 surveys. We explore the effectiveness of different large-scale-structure probes, including the power spectra of galaxy weak lensing, galaxy positions, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlation. We use correlated lognormal simulations with the expected redshift distribution, number density of galaxies, and noise levels of the LSST survey, as well as CMB-S4 lensing simulations with anticipated noise levels, to obtain the expected error bars of each of the probes. We investigate the constraining power of the cosmological parameters for the individual probes and their combinations in an idealized scenario, where we do not account for astrophysical and observational parameters such as galaxy bias variations and photometric redshift uncertainties.

Gibbins, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2026

Vertical Structure of Local Disk Galaxies Revealed by DESI Imaging Data

The vertical structure of galactic disks is an important probe of the disk assembly history. Here we investigate the vertical structure of a sample of 79 local disk galaxies within 50 Mpc using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys. Vertical luminosity profiles as a function of radius in the g, r, and z bands are extracted and fitted using a single-component sech2 model to determine scale height and its radial variation (i.e., flaring). Our measurements indicate local galactic disks are overall thin with negligible flaring. The median scale heights at 1 R e are 0.21, 0.22, and 0.22 kpc in the g, r, and z bands, respectively, while the median radial gradients of scale height are −0.006, 0.003, and 0.001 in these bands. These values are consistent with that of the geometric thin disk of the Milky Way represented by metal-rich, low-[α/Fe] populations, confirming the weak flaring of the geometric thin disk. A clear positive correlation of scale height with stellar mass is observed down to the low-mass end of 10 7 M ⊙ . These results provide a homogeneous benchmark for the vertical structure of nearby disk galaxies and establish the cosmological representativeness of the Milky Way thin disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiprobe cosmology from the abundance of SPT clusters and DES galaxy clustering and weak lensing

Cosmic shear, galaxy clustering, and the abundance of massive halos each probe the large-scale structure of the Universe in complementary ways. We present cosmological constraints from the joint analysis of the three probes, building on the latest analyses of the lensing-informed abundance of clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and of the auto- and cross-correlation of galaxy position and weak lensing measurements (3 × 2 ⁢pt) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We consider the cosmological correlation between the different tracers and we account for the systematic uncertainties that are shared between the large-scale lensing correlation functions and the small-scale lensing-based cluster mass calibration. Marginalized over the remaining Λ cold dark matter (Λ ⁢CDM) parameters (including the sum of neutrino masses) and 52 astrophysical modeling parameters, we measure Ω m = 0.300 ± 0.017 and 𝜎 8 = 0.797 ± 0.026. Compared to constraints from Planck primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, our constraints are only 15% wider with a probability to exceed of 0.22 (1.2⁢𝜎) for the two-parameter difference. We further obtain 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.796 ± 0.013 which is lower than the Planck measurement at the 1.6⁢𝜎 level. The combined SPT cluster, DES 3 ×2 ⁢pt, and Planck datasets mildly prefer a nonzero positive neutrino mass, with a 95% upper limit ∑ 𝑚 𝜈 < 0.25 eV on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming a 𝑤⁢CDM model, we constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter 𝑤 = −1.1⁢5$^{+0.23}_{−0.17}$ and when combining with Planck primary CMB anisotropies, we recover 𝑤 = −1.2⁢0$^{+0.15}_{−0.09}$, a 1.7⁢𝜎 difference with a cosmological constant. The precision of our results highlights the benefits of multiwavelength multiprobe cosmology and our analysis paves the way for upcoming joint analyses of next-generation datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solidity without inhomogeneity: perfectly homogeneous, weakly coupled, UV-complete solids

Solid-like behavior at low energies and long distances is usually associated with the spontaneous breaking of spatial translations at microscopic scales, as in the case of a lattice of atoms. We exhibit three quantum field theories that are renormalizable, Poincaré invariant, and weakly coupled, and that admit states that on the one hand are perfectly homogeneous down to arbitrarily short scales, and on the other hand have the same infrared dynamics as isotropic solids. All three examples presented here lead to the same peculiar solid at low energies, featuring very constrained interactions and transverse phonons that always propagate at the speed of light. In particular, they violate the well known c$^2_L$>$\frac{4}{3}$c$^2_T$ bound, thus showing that it is possible to have a healthy renormalizable theory that at low energies exhibits a negative bulk modulus (we discuss how the associated instabilities are absent in the presence of suitable boundary conditions). We do not know whether such peculiarities are unavoidable features of large scale solid-like behavior in the absence of short scale inhomogeneities, or whether they simply reflect the limits of our imagination.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Massive νs through the CNN lens: interpreting the field-level neutrino mass information in weak lensing

Modern cosmological surveys probe the Universe deep into the nonlinear regime, where massive neutrinos suppress cosmic structure. Traditional cosmological analyses, which use the 2-point correlation function to extract information, are no longer optimal in the nonlinear regime, and there is thus much interest in extracting beyond-2-point information to improve constraints on neutrino mass. Quantifying and interpreting the beyond-2-point information is thus a pressing task. We study the field-level information in weak lensing convergence maps using convolution neural networks. We find that the network performance increases as higher source redshifts and smaller scales are considered — investigating up to a source redshift of 2.5 and ℓ max ≃ 10 4 — verifying that massive neutrinos leave a distinct effect on weak lensing. However, the performance of the network significantly drops after scaling out the 2-point information from the maps, implying that most of the field-level information can be found in the 2-point correlation function alone. We quantify these findings in terms of the likelihood ratio and also use Integrated Gradient saliency maps to interpret which parts of the map the network is learning the most from. We find that, in the absence of noise, the network extracts a similar amount of information from the most overdense and underdense regions. However, upon adding noise, the information in underdense regions is distorted as noise disproportionately washes out void-like structures.

Golshan, Malika [University of California, Berkele↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗
DOE OSTI2023

The cosmic web of X-ray active galactic nuclei seen through the eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS)

Which galaxies in the general population turn into active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is a keystone of galaxy formation and evolution. Thanks to SRG/eROSITA’s contiguous 140 square degree pilot survey field, we constructed a large, complete, and unbiased soft X-ray flux-limited (FX > 6.5 × 10 -15 erg s -1 cm -2 ) AGN sample at low redshift, 0.05 < z < 0.55. Two summary statistics, the clustering using spectra from SDSS-V and galaxy-galaxy lensing with imaging from HSC, are measured and interpreted with halo occupation distribution and abundance matching models. Both models successfully account for the observations. We obtain an exceptionally complete view of the AGN halo occupation distribution. The population of AGNs is broadly distributed among halos with a mean mass of 3.9 -2.4 +2.0 × 10 12 M ⊙ . This corresponds to a large-scale halo bias of b(z = 0.34) = 0.99 -0.10 +0.08 . The central occupation has a large transition parameter, σ log 10 (M) = 1.28 ± 0.2. The satellite occupation distribution is characterized by a shallow slope, α sat = 0.73 ± 0.38. We find that AGNs in satellites are rare, with f sat < 20%. Most soft X-ray-selected AGNs are hosted by central galaxies in their dark matter halo. A weak correlation between soft X-ray luminosity and large-scale halo bias is confirmed (3.3σ). We discuss the implications of environmental-dependent AGN triggering. This study paves the way toward fully charting, in the coming decade, the coevolution of X-ray AGNs, their host galaxies, and dark matter halos by combining eROSITA with SDSS-V, 4MOST, DESI, LSST, and Euclid data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Joint X-Ray, Kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich, and Weak Lensing Measurements: Toward a Consensus Picture of Efficient Gas Expulsion from Groups and Clusters

There is no consensus on how baryon feedback shapes the underlying matter distribution from either simulations or observations. We confront the uncertain landscape by jointly analyzing new measurements of the gas distribution around groups and clusters—DESI+ACT kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect profiles and eROSITA X-ray gas masses—with mean halo masses characterized by galaxy–galaxy lensing. Across a wide range of halo masses ( M 500 = 10 13−14 M ⊙ ) and redshifts (0 < z < 1), we find evidence of more efficient gas expulsion beyond several R 500 than predicted by most state-of-the-art simulations. A like-with-like comparison reveals all kSZ and X-ray observations are inconsistent with the fiducial 1 Gpc 3 hydrodynamical FLAMINGO simulation, which was calibrated to reproduce pre-eROSITA X-ray gas fractions: eROSITA X-ray gas fractions are 2 × lower than the simulation, and the kSZ measurements are combined >8σ discrepant. The FLAMINGO simulation variant with the most gas expulsion, and therefore the most suppression of the matter power spectrum relative to a dark-matter-only simulation, provides a good description of how much gas is expelled and how far it extends; the enhanced gas depletion is achieved by more powerful but less frequent AGN outbursts. Joint kSZ, X-ray, and lensing measurements form a consistent picture of gas expulsion beyond several R 500 , implying a more suppressed matter power spectrum than predicted by most recent simulations. Complementary observables (e.g., thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect and fast radio bursts) and next-generation simulations are critical to understanding the physical mechanism behind this extreme gas expulsion and mapping its impact on the large-scale matter distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗