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At least 307 records · Page 17

Near 40 Years MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC -Opportunity and Challenge to Support Extremes Study

To the end of 2019, 40 years NASA climate reanalysis data sets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will be available at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 consists atmosphere, land, and ocean data, which may be used for the studies ranging from the short scale weather events to the large scale decadal vulnerabilities. The hourly products, such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and aerosols etc., have been used widely to study extreme events.In supporting users from broad communities, GES DISC have developed various data access services, including subsetter for downloading only data of interest with preferred format; OPeNDAP - for machine-to-machine data access; and Giovanni- for online visualization and analysis, etc. A big challenge for extreme study is to downloading and processing long-term hourly or daily data. The data downloading performance is not very satisfied by many users with current services and the native archived data structure. Late June 2019, many people in Europe had experienced extreme heat waves. The temperatures in several countries exceeded 40°C (104°F). For example, MERRA-2 shows that the near surface daily maximum temperature of June 28 2019 over Marseille, a city in southern France, reached 41.1 °C (106°F), which is the record breaking temperature in the last 40 years. GES DISC is working together with domain science experts to improve the performance of long time series access, making analysis ready data sets in supporting application researches, such as extreme study. In this presentation, using Europe heat wave as an example, we will show prototype of the in developing service for finding extremes from near 40 years MERRA-2 data at a given location. MERRA-2 data can be accessed from NASA GES DISC(https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ) by search keyword "MERRA-2".

Shen, Suhung↗

Man-Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) v5: Augmentations, Motivations, and Directions for Aeronautics Applications

As automation and advanced technologies are introduced into transport systems ranging from the Next Generation Air Transportation System termed NextGen, to the advanced surface transportation systems as exemplified by the Intelligent Transportations Systems, to future systems designed for space exploration, there is an increased need to validly predict how the future systems will be vulnerable to error given the demands imposed by the assistive technologies. One formalized approach to study the impact of assistive technologies on the human operator in a safe and non-obtrusive manner is through the use of human performance models (HPMs). HPMs play an integral role when complex human-system designs are proposed, developed, and tested. One HPM tool termed the Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is a NASA Ames Research Center HPM software tool that has been applied to predict human-system performance in various domains since 1986. MIDAS is a dynamic, integrated HPM and simulation environment that facilitates the design, visualization, and computational evaluation of complex man-machine system concepts in simulated operational environments. The paper will discuss a range of aviation specific applications including an approach used to model human error for NASA s Aviation Safety Program, and what-if analyses to evaluate flight deck technologies for NextGen operations. This chapter will culminate by raising two challenges for the field of predictive HPMs for complex human-system designs that evaluate assistive technologies: that of (1) model transparency and (2) model validation.

Gore, Brian F.↗

ILLICIT TRANSIT INTERDICTION GLOBAL ANALYSIS

This study aims to enhance the security of radioactive materials during transport by analyzing commonalities in cargo thefts conducted by non-state groups such as thieves and terrorists. This research focuses on identifying patterns and trends in the methods used to steal high-value cargo, with the goal of applying these insights to improve transport security of radioactive materials. Key questions addressed include the frequency of specific tools, techniques, and insider involvement in thefts, as well as the use of weapons, electronic jamming equipment, and specialized tools. Findings will inform security design improvements and industry practices to mitigate vulnerabilities. The study involves a comprehensive review of literature and case studies, utilizing data sources from 2018 to 2023. Articles will be selected based on their relevance to thefts of valuable cargo in transit, with a focus on incidents involving non-state actors. The methodology will include statistical and inferential analysis to identify trends, with results visualized through pie charts, frequency analyses, and terrain maps. The discussion will highlight the implications of findings and provide actionable recommendations for strengthening security measures. Limitations such as data availability and reporting inconsistencies will be acknowledged. Suggestions for future improvements will be constructed using existing case studies and expert feedback. The study’s outcomes aim to raise awareness within the industry, inform policy decisions, and enhance security protocols for radioactive material transport. Metrics for impact include the potential publication of findings, presentations at conferences to raise awareness, and the subsequent actions taken by stakeholders based on the research. By identifying trends and vulnerabilities and suggesting improvements, this research contributes to preventing the illicit use of nuclear and radiological materials.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Remote Sensing Detection of Growing Season Freeze-Induced Defoliation of Montane Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) in Southern Utah, USA

Growing season freeze events pose a threat to quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), leading to canopy defoliation, reduced vigor, and increased mortality, especially for declining montane populations western North America. Detecting the spatial distribution and progression of this damage is challenging due to limited in situ observations in this region. This study represents the first attempt to comprehensively resolve the spatial extent of freeze-induced aspen canopy damage in southern Utah using multispectral remote sensing data. We developed an approach to detect the spatial and temporal dynamics of freeze-damaged aspen stands, focusing on a freeze event from 8–9 June 2020 in southern Utah. By integrating medium- (~250 to 500 m) and high-resolution (~10 m) satellite data, we employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to compare post-freeze conditions with historical norms and pre-freeze conditions. Our analysis revealed NDVI reductions of 0.10 to 0.40 from pre-freeze values and a second flush recovery. We introduced a pixel-based method to evaluate freeze vulnerability, establishing a strong correlation (R values 0.78 to 0.82) between the onset of the first flush (NDVI > 0.50) and the accumulation of 100 growing degree days (GDD). These methods support the potential for retrospective assessments, proactive forest monitoring, and forecasting future risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lost in Translation: the Case for Integrated Testing

The building of a spacecraft is complex and often involves multiple suppliers and companies that have their own designs and processes. Standards have been developed across the industries to reduce the chances for critical flight errors at the system level, but the spacecraft is still vulnerable to the introduction of critical errors during integration of these systems. Critical errors can occur at any time during the process and in many cases, human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies human error as a risk driver. Most programs have a test plan in place that is intended to catch these errors, but it is not uncommon for schedule and cost stress to result in less testing than initially planned. Therefore, integrated testing, or "testing as you fly," is essential as a final check on the design and assembly to catch any errors prior to the mission. This presentation will outline the unique benefits of integrated testing by catching critical flight errors that can otherwise go undetected, discuss HRA methods that are used to identify opportunities for human error, lessons learned and challenges over ownership of testing will be discussed.

Young, Aaron↗

Failure environment analysis tool applications

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Pack, Ginger L.↗

Failure environment analysis tool applications

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within it, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Pack, Ginger L.↗

Large Power Transformer Supply Chain Gap Analysis and Domestic Content Strategies for Hydropower Rehabilitation: Supplemental Report

Large Power Transformers (LPTs) are indispensable to U.S. hydropower operations, serving as generator step-up (GSU) units that interconnect hydro facilities to the transmission grid. Yet the LPT supply chain faces mounting stress from aging infrastructure, limited domestic production, and long lead times. Currently, more than 80% of LPT demand is met through imports, with primary suppliers including Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, Austria, and Canada. Domestic manufacturers supply only about 20% of units, constrained by bottlenecks in high-grade Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES), copper conductors, bushings, and on-load tap changers (OLTCs). Hydropower rehabilitation projects in particular face additional challenges due to custom design requirements, remote siting, and regulatory needs around domestic content. Regional cost disparities, driven by transportation logistics, labor markets, and import price volatility, further exacerbate project risks. To address these vulnerabilities, coordinated action is required: strengthening domestic capacity for GOES and secondary components, developing near-site assembly hubs, and leveraging IRS domestic content safe harbors to incentivize U.S. manufacturing. This addendum refines the 2024 NREL Hydropower Supply Chain Gap Analysis by focusing specifically on critical issues related to LPT domestic manufacturing capacity and key considerations for hydropower developers and asset owners.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Recent progress in the design of the K-DEMO divertor

The preliminary conceptual design of the Korean fusion demonstration reactor (K-DEMO) with a major radius of 6.8 m and the fusion power of 2200 MW has been studied since 2012. The overall configuration of the K-DEMO divetor system based on the ITER-like water-cooled tungsten technology is a double-null type symmetric divertor subdivided into 32 toroidal modules for the vertical maintenance. A detached divertor scenario with impurity seeding was considered as the primary approach for the power exhaust to reduce the peak heat flux lower than the engineering limit of 10 MW/m 2 . The power exhaust performance at the scrap off layer was estimated by using UEDGE-2D code, a two-dimensional fluid transport code for collisional edge plasma and neutral species like N, Ne, and Ar. Particle and heat flux on inboard and outboard divertor targets were calculated for the detached cased depending on parameters such as the impurity seeding rate, pumping rate, and the pedestal density. On the other hand, a magnetic solution like X-divertor, snowflake divertor, and super X-divertor to expand the plasma wet area was considered for K-DEMO since the detached divertor increasing a radiation fraction by impurity seeding might be able to be unstable. However, the extremely high current of poloidal coils was required more than the engineering limit, 20 MA, to form magnetic field lines for the alternative divertors. Based on the physical calculation of the edge plasma, engineering analyses were carried out to find out the thermal and structural reliability. The thermo-hydraulic analysis confirmed thermal stability, whether all comprising materials are operating within their allowable temperature windows when the case of the peak heat flux is set to 10 MW/m 2 on the outboard divertor target. The response surface optimization method derived two optimal design candidates employing two kinds of heat sink materials, respectively: the reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steel and CuCrZr alloy. Additionally, the drawbacks and merits of the two materials were definite. The optimal design with applying RAFM steel was vulnerable to withstand thermal and mechanical loads since low thermal conductivity caused too thin thickness of the heat sink. On the other hand, the CuCrZr alloy has critical drawbacks in terms of activation and radioactive waste despite its high thermal conductivity. Meanwhile, preliminary electromagnetic (EM) analysis was carried out to estimate the EM loads caused by the abnormal behaviors of plasma since EM loads are one of the most critical external loads for designing a DEMO divertor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A full-scope, high-fidelity simulator-based hardware-in-the-loop testbed for comprehensive nuclear power plant cybersecurity research

Nuclear power plant (NPP) cybersecurity research often relies on hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbeds that integrate real hardware components into simulated environments. These testbeds allow researchers to identify vulnerabilities, evaluate attack impacts, and test security measures in a controlled setting. Furthermore, previous HIL testbeds lacked fidelity to accurately represent real nuclear systems, limiting the scope of cybersecurity analysis. This study presents the creation of a HIL testbed, devised upon a full-scope, high-fidelity NPP simulator, to facilitate realistic and comprehensive cybersecurity research. To demonstrate its capabilities, the control logic for the steam generator water level was migrated from the simulator to an external programmable logic controller. As a practical application of the developed testbed, supply chain attack scenarios were simulated by injecting malicious code into the controller logic, and the effects of manipulating sensor inputs and control commands were observed. While this HIL testbed provides more detailed simulations, enhanced realism, and wider applicability compared to other options utilizing a less complex simulator, it is also more intricate and costly. For this reason, we include a detailed comparison with some alternative architectures to aid fellow researchers and practitioners in the selection of a suitable HIL architecture based on specific research objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Surveys for sensitivity to fibers and potential impacts from fiber induced failures

The surveys for sensitivities to fibers and potential impacts from fiber induced failures begins with a review of the survey work completed to date and then describes an impact study involving four industrial installations located in Virginia. The observations and results from both the surveys and the study provide guidelines for future efforts. The survey work was done with three broad objectives: (1) identify the pieces of potentially vulnerable equipment as candidates for test; (2) support the transfer function work by gaining an understanding of how fibers could get into a building; and (3) support the economic analysis by understanding what would happen if fibers precipitated a failure in an item of equipment.

Butterfield, A. J.↗

Situational Awareness of Grid Anomalies (SAGA)

The modern power industry becomes more vulnerable to cyber events due to the growing interconnectivity, interdependence, and complexity of the electric power grid. High-fidelity modeling and simulation tools that support the preventative risk analysis on potential cyber-relevant events is essential for ensuring the situational awareness of the system operator as it provides an inexpensive and risk-free environment to test the system responses under various cyber-relevant events and hereby can support research on cyber anomaly detection, optimal protective resource allocation, and mitigation measures. In this webinar, we will share NREL's cybersecurity research capabilities by highlighting the development of a scalable cyber-physical event test bed and demonstration with real hardware in the loop. The developed cyber-physical event test bed is backboned by an integrated transmission, distribution, and communication dynamic co-simulation framework and a plug-and-play cyber event generation module. It is designed to be modular and compatible with parallel computing, and thereby supports large-scale system simulations at an affordable computation cost. The test bed can capture millisecond-to-minutes dynamic frequency and voltage responses under cyber events from the bulk transmission system to the active distribution systems and distributed energy resources at the grid edge.

co-simulation↗

An Analysis of Energy Needs and Seawater Extraction Approaches for the Integration of Primary Magnesium Production with Nuclear Power

The cost of primary magnesium production is highly dominated by the energy required to produce the metal. This, along with the current geographical concentration of its production, makes the magnesium price vulnerable as energy-production paradigms begin to rapidly change. In this work, four nuclear-integration pathways for the efficient supply of heat and electricity to magnesium production from a nuclear power plant are considered. A production route using electrified metallothermic reduction is compared to a nuclear-heat-integrated electrolytic pathway. It is shown that the latter can achieve significantly lower primary energy consumption, 261 MJ/kg Mg compared with 416 MJ/kg Mg. The electrolytic pathway can also reduce emissions down to around 2.1 kgCO2/kg Mg, compared to around 34 kgCO2/kg Mg in the Pidgeon process. Beyond energy and emissions, the four pathways considered are also compared to their ability to reduce locational dependence of the production plant and reduce process complexity. This work also highlights future advances in magnesium production with a potential scheme for the efficient extraction of magnesium from seawater with coproduction of desalinated water and the potential of demand-side response from magnesium electrolysis. This is the first work to consider the full integration of primary magnesium production using nuclear cogeneration, and it is hoped the study paves the way for the analysis of economic nuclear integration within metal extraction and manufacturing.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

Investigating the Impacts of Land Use Change on Urban Heat and Vulnerability in Cali, Columbia

The urban heat island effect (UHI) is an environmental phenomenon where cities experience higher temperatures than rural areas due to increased pavement and decreased cooling from vegetation. Approximately 76% of people in Colombia live in urban areas, and the city of Santiago de Cali is facing UHI challenges exacerbated by land use change. Wetlands and forests formerly surrounded the city but were replaced by development and agriculture. The Colombian municipal government agency Departamento Administrativo de Gestión del Medio Ambiente and the community organization Fundacion Dinamizadores Ambientales partnered with NASA DEVELOP to evaluate communities in Cali most vulnerable to urban heat. This project illustrated the utility of using NASA Earth observations to evaluate the relationship between land use, temperature, and social factors in Cali, Colombia between 2013 and 2023. The team used Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Landsat 9 OLI-2/TIRS-2 to generate land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and albedo maps in Google Earth Engine. Heavy cloud cover limited the accuracy of the LST but incorporating up to three satellites for a median image reduced potential errors. Through further analysis in ArcGIS Pro, the team classified land use change using a deep learning model and found that LST was significantly higher in urban areas than in wetlands or forests. Using R studio, the team ran a principal component analysis to determine which social factors had the strongest correlation with LST. The team found that health care and green space access were negatively correlated, and Afro-Colombian ethnicity was positively correlated with LST. With awareness of the most impacted and vulnerable regions, the partner organizations can work to prioritize green space establishment in those areas to reduce the impacts of urban heat. Addressing the urban heat island effect will reduce environmental justice concerns within the city and improve overall health, air, and water quality for those who live there.

Brenna Bruffey↗

Wildfire Risk Evaluation Framework for Grid Operations and Planning

The United States (US) environmental protection agency's (EPA's) climate change indicators for wildfires show a long-term trend of increased annual wildfire activity, larger wildfire size, and more variable dynamics in wildfire behavior. This has caused more frequent preemptive public safety power shutoff (PSPS) events in the regions with recognized high wildfire risk. These preemptive power shutoffs attempt to prevent the ignition of a wildfire but it nonetheless renders the transmission line non-operational, which often sheds load of downstream communities. As wildfires and PSPS events become more frequent, it is crucial to find the communities most at risk of load shedding. To that end, this paper proposes the wildfire risk evaluation of the system (WiRES) framework, which is a performance-based framework that translates extreme weather-related and PSPS event probabilities into a cumulative probability of a non-operational transmission line. This study also provides a geospatial visualization tool that breaks down the entire western electrical coordinating council (WECC) region into 50 km grid cells which can be used to 1) filter out transmission lines with higher than a threshold outage probability, and 2) graphically discover the affected regions and their biophysical and socioeconomic metrics. %such as the social vulnerability index, population density, gross domestic product, etc. Lastly, an impact assessment study is conducted which connects the results of the proposed framework to python and powerworld-based contingency analysis to highlight the applicability of the framework.

Wildfire, Resilience, Extreme Events, Grid Reslien↗

Quantification of the memory imprint effect for a charged particle environment

The effects of total accumulated dose on the single-event vulnerability of NMOS resistive-load SRAMs are investigated. The bias-dependent shifts in device parameters can imprint the memory state present during exposure or erase the imprinted state. Analysis of these effects is presented along with an analytic model developed for the quantification of these effects. The results indicate that the imprint effect is dominated by the difference in the threshold voltage of the n-channel devices.

Bhuva, B. L.↗

Small-Signal Stability Analysis of Low-Inertia Power Grids with Inverter-Based Resources and Synchronous Condensers: Preprint

With the potential environmental impacts of conventional fossil fuels and the technology advances of grid interactive power electronics, inverter-based resources (IBRs) are playing a crucial role in modern power grids. However, due to the lack of physical inertia, IBRs are vulnerable to system disturbances. Further, conventional grid-following (GFL) inverters cannot actively establish the frequency and voltage, which could not be a appropriate solution for 100% inverter-based power grids. Grid-forming (GFM) control, as an emerging inverter control function, has drawn great attention in recent years, while it is still under development and pre-mature for large-scale field deployment. A potential solution for gradually transitioning into a 100% inverter-based power grid is to combine both IBRs and synchronous machines into a mixed generation portfolio. More importantly, synchronous machines can be operated as synchronous condensers (SCs) until they are retired. It is also worth mentioning that the stability analysis is of great importance to ensure the smooth transition from existing power grids to 100% inverter-based system, which is the main focus of this work with detailed modeling and modal analysis.

100% renewable↗