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NASA NTRS1991

Optical phase-locked loop (OPLL) for free-space laser communications with heterodyne detection

Several advantages of coherent free-space optical communications are outlined. Theoretical analysis is formulated for an OPLL disturbed by shot noise, modulation noise, and frequency noise consisting of a white component, a 1/f component, and a 1/f-squared component. Each of the noise components is characterized by its associated power spectral density. It is shown that the effect of modulation depends only on the ratio of loop bandwidth and data rate, and is negligible for an OPLL with loop bandwidth smaller than one fourth the data rate. Total phase error variance as a function of loop bandwidth is displayed for several values of carrier signal to noise ratio. Optimal loop bandwidth is also calculated as a function of carrier signal to noise ratio. An OPLL experiment is performed, where it is shown that the measured phase error variance closely matches the theoretical predictions.

Win, Moe Z.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Bias Correction and Random Error Characterization for the Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Wind Measurements

A new approach to the analysis of systematic and random observation errors is presented in which the error statistics are obtained using forecast data rather than observations from a different instrument type. The analysis is carried out at an intermediate retrieval level, instead of the more typical state variable space. This method is carried out on measurements made by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). HRDI, a limb sounder, is the only satellite instrument measuring winds in the stratosphere, and the only instrument of any kind making global wind measurements in the upper atmosphere. HRDI measures doppler shifts in the two different O2 absorption bands (alpha and B) and the retrieved products are tangent point Line-of-Sight wind component (level 2 retrieval) and UV winds (level 3 retrieval). This analysis is carried out on a level 1.9 retrieval, in which the contributions from different points along the line-of-sight have not been removed. Biases are calculated from O-F (observed minus forecast) LOS wind components and are separated into a measurement parameter space consisting of 16 different values. The bias dependence on these parameters (plus an altitude dependence) is used to create a bias correction scheme carried out on the level 1.9 retrieval. The random error component is analyzed by separating the gamma and B band observations and locating observation pairs where both bands are very nearly looking at the same location at the same time. It is shown that the two observation streams are uncorrelated and that this allows the forecast error variance to be estimated. The bias correction is found to cut the effective observation error variance in half.

Tangborn, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2006

Annual Cycles of Surface Shortwave Radiative Fluxes

The annual cycles of surface shortwave flux are investigated using the 8-yr dataset of the surface radiation budget (SRB) components for the period July 1983-June 1991. These components include the downward, upward, and net shortwave radiant fluxes at the earth's surface. The seasonal cycles are quantified in terms of principal components that describe the temporal variations and empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) that describe the spatial patterns. The major part of the variation is simply due to the variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, especially for the first term, which describes 92.4% of the variance for the downward shortwave flux. However, for the second term, which describes 4.1% of the variance, the effect of clouds is quite important and the effect of clouds dominates the third term, which describes 2.4% of the variance. To a large degree the second and third terms are due to the response of clouds to the annual cycle of solar forcing. For net shortwave flux at the surface, similar variances are described by each term. The regional values of the EOFs are related to climate classes, thereby defining the range of annual cycles of shortwave radiation for each climate class.

Wilber, Anne C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modes of interannual variability in the stratosphere

During 1964-91, stratospheric temperature and circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter varied interannually on time scales from 2 to about 12 years. A substantial percentage of December-February interannual variance was correlated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Additional monthly variance could be accounted for by quasi-decadal oscillation and QBO/low-frequency modulation. The QBO was the largest and most consistent of these signals, and its decadal modulation explains an apparent correlation with the solar cycle depending on the sign of the QBO - an interpretation supported by principal component analysis.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: 1. an EOF Approach to the Spatial-Temporal Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth Using Multiple Remote Sensing Data Sets

Many remote sensing techniques and passive sensors have been developed to measure global aerosol properties. While instantaneous comparisons between pixel-level data often reveal quantitative differences, here we use Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, also known as Principal Component Analysis, to demonstrate that satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data sets exhibit essentially the same spatial and temporal variability and are thus suitable for large-scale studies. Analysis results show that the first four EOF modes of AOD account for the bulk of the variance and agree well across the four data sets used in this study (i.e., Aqua MODIS, Terra MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS). Only SeaWiFS data over land have slightly different EOF patterns. Globally, the first two EOF modes show annual cycles and are mainly related to Sahara dust in the northern hemisphere and biomass burning in the southern hemisphere, respectively. After removing the mean seasonal cycle from the data, major aerosol sources, including biomass burning in South America and dust in West Africa, are revealed in the dominant modes due to the different interannual variability of aerosol emissions. The enhancement of biomass burning associated with El Niño over Indonesia and central South America is also captured with the EOF technique.

variability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microbial sensor variation across biogeochemical conditions in the terrestrial deep subsurface

ABSTRACT Microbes can be found in abundance many kilometers underground. While microbial metabolic capabilities have been examined across different geochemical settings, it remains unclear how changes in subsurface niches affect microbial needs to sense and respond to their environment. To address this question, we examined how microbial extracellular sensor systems vary with environmental conditions across metagenomes at different Deep Mine Microbial Observatory (DeMMO) subsurface sites. Because two-component systems (TCSs) directly sense extracellular conditions and convert this information into intracellular biochemical responses, we expected that this sensor family would vary across isolated oligotrophic subterranean environments that differ in abiotic and biotic conditions. TCSs were found at all six subsurface sites, the service water control, and the surface site, with an average of 0.88 sensor histidine kinases (HKs) per 100 genes across all sites. Abundance was greater in subsurface fracture fluids compared with surface-derived fluids, and candidate phyla radiation (CPR) bacteria presented the lowest HK frequencies. Measures of microbial diversity, such as the Shannon diversity index, revealed that HK abundance is inversely correlated with microbial diversity ( r 2 = 0.81). Among the geochemical parameters measured, HK frequency correlated most strongly with variance in dissolved organic carbon ( r 2 = 0.82). Taken together, these results implicate the abiotic and biotic properties of an ecological niche as drivers of sensor needs, and they suggest that microbes in environments with large fluctuations in organic nutrients (e.g., lacustrine, terrestrial, and coastal ecosystems) may require greater TCS diversity than ecosystems with low nutrients (e.g., open ocean). IMPORTANCE The ability to detect extracellular environmental conditions is a fundamental property of all life forms. Because microbial two-component sensor systems convert information about extracellular conditions into biochemical information that controls their behaviors, we evaluated how two-component sensor systems evolved within the deep Earth across multiple sites where abiotic and biotic properties vary. We show that these sensor systems remain abundant in microbial consortia at all subterranean sampling sites and observe correlations between sensor system abundances and abiotic (dissolved organic carbon variation) and biotic (consortia diversity) properties. These results suggest that multiple environmental properties may drive sensor protein evolution and highlight the need for further studies of metagenomic and geochemical data in parallel to understand the drivers of microbial sensor evolution.

response regulator↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatial patterns of historical crop yields reveal soil health attributes in US Midwest fields

Abstract Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers’ fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Fowler, Ames↗

DOE OSTI2025

Drosophila melanogaster pigmentation demonstrates adaptive phenotypic parallelism over multiple spatiotemporal scales

Abstract Populations are capable of responding to environmental change over ecological timescales via adaptive tracking. However, the translation from patterns of allele frequency change to rapid adaptation of complex traits remains unresolved. We used abdominal pigmentation in Drosophila melanogaster as a model phenotype to address the nature, genetic architecture, and repeatability of rapid adaptation in the field. We show that D. melanogaster pigmentation evolves as a highly parallel and deterministic response to shared environmental variation across latitude and season in natural North American populations. We then experimentally evolved replicate, genetically diverse fly populations in field mesocosms to remove any confounding effects of demography and/or cryptic structure that may drive patterns in wild populations; we show that pigmentation rapidly responds, in parallel, in fewer than 15 generations. Thus, pigmentation evolves concordantly in response to spatial and temporal climatic axes. We next examined whether phenotypic differentiation was associated with allele frequency change at loci with established links to genetic variance in pigmentation in natural populations. We found that across all spatial and temporal scales, phenotypic patterns were associated with variation at pigmentation-related loci, and the sets of genes we identified at each scale were largely nonoverlapping. Therefore, our findings suggest that parallel phenotypic evolution is associated with distinct components of the polygenic architecture shifting across each environmental axis to produce redundant adaptive patterns.

Evolutionary Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Seasonal and interannual variations in total ozone revealed by the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet experiment

The first 2 years of backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) ozone data from the Nimbus 4 spacecraft have been processed to a more refined level. The seasonal variations of total ozone for the period April 1970 to April 1972 are described using daily means for 10 deg latitude zones and a time-latitude cross section. In addition, the BUV data are compared with analyzed Dobson data and with infrared interferometer spectrometer data also obtained from the Nimbus 4 spacecraft. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means. Amplitudes, days of peak ozone values, and percentage of variance have been computed for the annual and semiannual waves and for higher harmonics of an annual period for the 2 years. Asymmetries are found in the annual waves in the two hemispheres, with a subtle interannual difference which may be due to changes in the general circulation. A significant semiannual component is detected in the tropics for the first year. This component appears to result from influences of the annual waves in the two hemispheres. A search for shorter periods using the harmonic analysis revealed no periodicity whose amplitude was higher than the noise level.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phase Selection During Solidification and Solid-State Phase Transformations in an Al-10Ce-8Mn (wt pct) Alloy

In multicomponent Al-Ce alloys, and especially after additive manufacturing (AM), complex and metastable solidification microstructures are frequently observed. Here, in this research, the relationship between solidification conditions and phase selection are explored for an Al-10Ce-8Mn (wt pct) alloy using a systematic study of laser melting conditions. Three solidification modes were observed: primary Al 10 Mn 2 Ce; primary Al 20 Mn 2 Ce; and eutectic FCC Al + Al 20 Mn 2 Ce. These solidification modes were correlated to specific liquid-solid interface velocities using a simple thermal model, showing the change in primary solidification phase for low (< 6.8 × 10 −4 m/s), moderate (between 8.2 × 10 −4 and 5.9 × 10 −2 m/s) and high solidification velocities (> 6.2 x 10 −2 m/s) for the above three solidification microstructures, respectively. These results were rationalized by using interface response function (IRF) theory to describe the solidification undercooling for the possible primary intermetallic phases. The implication of the local phase selection from differing solidification conditions is summarized by a comparison of hardness which demonstrates the potential variance of Vickers hardness from 101 to 242 (VHV) by changing the laser velocity from 1 to 83 mm/s. Interestingly, on heat treatment at 400°C, the decomposition pathways of the solidification microstructure and hardness were also found to be different, thereby opening multiple pathways for spatial microstructure and property control within AM components.

Sisco, Kevin↗

DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1978

Seasonal and interannual variations in total ozone revealed by the Nimbus-4 backscattered ultraviolet experiment

The first two years of Backscattered Ultraviolet (BUV) ozone data from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft were reprocessed. The seasonal variations of total ozone for the period April 1970 to April 1972 are described using daily zonal means to 10 deg latitude zones and a time-latitude cross section. In addition, the BUV data are compared with analyzed Dobson data and with IRIS data also obtained from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means. Amplitudes, days of peaks, and percentage of variance were computed for annual and semi-annual waves and for higher harmonics of an annual period for the two years. Asymmetries are found in the annual waves in the two hemispheres, with a subtle interannual difference which may be due to changes in the general circulation. A significant semi-annual component is detected in the tropics for the first year, which appears to result from influences of the annual waves in the two hemispheres.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Hewitson, B.↗