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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton

We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parameter-Varying Hydrodynamic Model of a Single Vane in a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

This paper presents a preliminary study on the parameter-varying hydrodynamic modeling of an individual vane of a variable-geometry oscillating surge wave energy converter (VGOSWEC). The WEC design incorporates controlled surfaces that can modify their orientation relative to the wave motion, reducing hydrodynamic pressure and related loads. This research focuses on characterizing the behavior of the oscillating WEC using a simplified model and three methods for achieving a continuous parameter-varying model: coarse hydrodynamic parameters, interpolation of hydrodynamic parameters, and a fitting function. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of parameter-varying hydrodynamic effects in variable geometry oscillating WECs. The findings provide insights into the potential for reducing structural loads and improving the overall performance of such devices. Further research and development in this area could lead to advancements in WEC technologies, enabling their integration into the competitive energy market.

analytical models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parameter-Varying Hydrodynamic Model of a Single Vane in a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

This paper presents a study on the time-varying hydrodynamic modeling of an individual flap of a variable geometry oscillating surge wave energy converter (VGOSWEC). The WEC design incorporates controlled surfaces that can modify their orientation relative to the wave motion, reducing hydrodynamic pressure and related loads. This research focuses on characterizing the behavior of the oscillating WEC using a simplified model and three methods for achieving a continuous time-variant model: discrete hydrodynamic parameters, interpolation of hydrodynamic parameters, and a fitting function. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of time-varying hydrodynamic effects in variable geometry oscillating WECs. The findings provide insights into the potential for reducing structural loads and improving the overall performance of such devices. Further research and development in this area could lead to advancements in WEC technologies, enabling their integration into the competitive energy market.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of an Optimal Variable-Pitch Controller for Floating Axial-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines: Preprint

This article discusses the development of an optimal variable-pitch controller for floating, axial-flow marine turbines. Recently, OpenFAST, an open-source wind turbine modeling tool, has been extended to model marine turbines. A controller is necessary to simulate marine turbines for different load cases using OpenFAST, which greatly impacts the performance of the energy system. Previous studies have designed controllers using a linearized model of the marine turbine, which can be timeconsuming and require the expertise of a control engineer. In this study, we use an automated approach that uses generic models of the marine turbine to identify the controller gains, which can expedite the process of designing a controller. Using an optimizer to identify the control system parameters can additionally improve the controller's performance. The optimal controller tuned using such an approach results in a 20% reduction in the towerbase damage equivalent loading and better tracking of the rated generator speed and power.

closed-loop control↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗

DOE OSTI2021

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness - An Introduction to the Open-Source Tool and Use Cases

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and ramp alerts for significant up/down ramps in renewable resource and the consequent net-load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing- probabilistic time series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, spatially resolved resource sites and forecasts, and system simulation and market clearing data such as transmission lines utilization, nodal prices and available generation flexibility. RAVIS uses a technology suite that is assembled to provide optimum visualization facility while maintaining a wide pool of potential deployment and client environments. The tool is designed to take advantage of web application technologies, open source visualization libraries and tooling. Utilizing this technology will enable deployment in any environment, using any operating system, and is scalable to much higher spatial and temporal scales of visualization. As a prototype of the tool and demonstrating a use case of variable renewable integration, RAVIS currently integrates site-specific solar power forecasts in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and Mid-continent ISO (MISO) footprint from the IBM WattSun forecasting platform, and also superimposes market simulation data for CAISO footprint from as in-house NREL market clearing tool. The tool has the ability to alert the viewer for excessive up or down ramps for both individual solar sites as well as regionally aggregated net-load ramps, and alerts can also be qualified with respect to available flexible generation. This report will provide an introduction to the RAVIS tool, and summarize the above mentioned capabilities, typical use cases and possible extensions of the tool. The RAVIS development team believes there are likely to be high economic and reliability benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts of variable renewables into control center visualizations and improved ramp events situational awareness for system operators and forecasting teams in the ISOs and electric utilities in comparison with their business as usual practices.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building energy efficiency and load flexibility optimization using phase change materials under futuristic grid scenario

This work investigates the energy savings and load flexibility capacity of phase change material (PCM) integrated into building envelope under a future energy generation scenario, where 80% of the energy load comes from renewable sources. Using community-scale modeling, we first determine the net thermal storage required to fully manage the demand variability at a utility grid, and then using whole-building simulations we optimize operating parameters - such as PCM thickness, latent heat, interior setpoint profile, PCM distribution, and heat transfer coefficient - to determine the optimal conditions required for maximum energy reduction and load flexibility without compromising occupants' thermal comfort. The optimal PCM-integrated envelope proposed in this study can provide annual load flexibility up to 33.6% and annual energy savings up to 10.8% in a lightweight residential building located in Baltimore, MD. This study is relevant given the increasing contributions of renewable energy in the total energy generation mix, leading to a significant time-imbalance between peak energy demand and peak energy production. While thermal energy storage using PCM is a recognized technique, there is no known prior study dedicated to examining the thermal performance of PCM-integrated envelope under future energy generation scenarios. This study bridges the research gap by investigating a practical way to implement PCMs in the buildings and maximize the energy efficiency as well as load flexibility related benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of crystallographic orientation on intragranular void growth in polycrystalline FCC materials

In this study, we study the effect of crystallographic orientation and applied triaxiality on the growth of intragranular voids. Two 3D full-field micromechanics methods are used, the dilatational visco-plastic fast-Fourier transform (DVP-FFT) and the crystal plasticity Finite Elements (CP-FE), both of which incorporate a combination of crystalline plasticity and dilatational plasticity. We demonstrate with several select cases that predictions of void growth from both formulations agree qualitatively. With the more computationally efficient DVP-FFT, additional effects of polycrystalline microstructure and the influence of nearest neighborhood are investigated. Crystals bearing a single intracrystalline void are studied in three types of 3D microstructural environments: isolated single crystals, individual equal-sized grains within a regular polycrystal, and individual variable sized grains within a polycrystal with grains and voids randomly located. We show that loading type plays a significant role. In strain-rate controlled conditions, voids in the hardest [111]-crystals grow the fastest in time, whereas in stress-controlled conditions, voids in the softest [100]-crystal grow the fastest in time. The analysis reveals that on average void growth is slower for the same starting orientation in the polycrystal than in the single crystal. We find that at the highest triaxiality tested that the correlation between crystal orientation and void growth rate in the polycrystal strengthens, drawing closer to that seen in the isolated single crystals. These results and model can help guide the microstructural design of polycrystalline materials with high strength and damage-tolerance in high-rate deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coordinated operation of electricity and natural gas systems from day-ahead to real-time markets

Power systems worldwide are becoming more reliant on energy from natural gas, wind, and solar, posing possible reliability and coordination challenges from the tighter coupling of these infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a framework for the market-based coordination of electricity and natural gas system operations. The proposed framework includes a power system model that accounts for flexibility in the commitment of power plants with short start-up and shut-down times, coupled with a dynamic gas model that simulates when gas cannot be delivered to generators. The capabilities of the framework are illustrated using real-world electric power and gas systems, including scenarios around wind and solar penetrations and the analysis of time-variant, “shaped flow” gas nominations. Our results indicate that coordination between power and gas systems improves total gas delivery and reduces out-of-merit order dispatch in the electricity system, and that shaped flows may reduce unserved gas in systems with high penetrations of wind and solar. Coordination can have mixed effects on carbon-dioxide emissions, with emissions increasing with coordination for current systems during high load weeks but decreasing for systems with high renewable penetrations, particularly during periods of high variability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid Forming Fast Frequency Response for PMSG-Based Wind Turbines

Electric power systems are undergoing a rapid transition from fuel-based generation using synchronous generators to renewable generation interfaced by power electronics. In this context, a key challenge is using renewable generation with limited controllability to contribute to power system stability. In this work, we investigate grid-forming control of permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) wind turbines. The proposed control and curtailment strategy supports the entire spectrum of standard functions of grid-following (e.g. maximum power point tracking (MPPT) and grid-forming control (e.g., primary frequency control) without explicit mode switching. A detailed case study is used to compare the performance of the proposed control at operating points corresponding to MPPT and frequency control with standard grid-forming and grid-following controls. Further, the results demonstrate that (i) the proposed energy balancing grid forming control is self-synchronizing in MPPT mode, (ii) the (limited) energy storage and controllability of wind turbines can be adequately utilized to provide grid support, and (ii) the proposed control exhibits good performance under variable wind speeds and does not result in a significant increase of wind turbine fatigue loads.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safe and Private Forward-trading Platform for Transactive Microgrids

Power grids are evolving at an unprecedented pace due to the rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DER) in communities. These resources are very different from traditional power sources, as they are located closer to loads and thus can significantly reduce transmission losses and carbon emissions. However, their intermittent and variable nature often results in spikes in the overall demand on distribution system operators (DSO). To manage these challenges, there has been a surge of interest in building decentralized control schemes, where a pool of DERs combined with energy storage devices can exchange energy locally to smooth fluctuations in net demand. Building a decentralized market for transactive microgrids is challenging, because even though a decentralized system provides resilience, it also must satisfy requirements such as privacy, efficiency, safety, and security, which are often in conflict with each other. As such, existing implementations of decentralized markets often focus on resilience and safety but compromise on privacy. In this article, we describe our platform, called TRANSAX, which enables participants to trade in an energy futures market, which improves efficiency by finding feasible matches for energy trades, enabling DSOs to plan their energy needs better. TRANSAX provides privacy to participants by anonymizing their trading activity using a distributed mixing service, while also enforcing constraints that limit trading activity based on safety requirements, such as keeping planned energy flow below line capacity. We show that TRANSAX can satisfy the seemingly conflicting requirements of efficiency, safety, and privacy. We also provide an analysis of how much trading efficiency is lost. Trading efficiency is improved through the problem formulation, which accounts for temporal flexibility, and system efficiency is improved using a hybrid-solver architecture. Lastly, we describe a testbed to run experiments and demonstrate its performance using simulation results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

redis-pvxs-ioc

redis-pvxs-ioc is a standalone PVAccess service for hot-reloadable, Redis-backed EPICS process variables (PV) defined by YAML. The core runtime is PVA-only. It does not load EPICS databases, call iocInit(), or serve Channel Access.

Steinkamp, Derek [Fermi National Accelerator Labor↗

DOE OSTI2023

Air Source Heat Pumps in Very Cold Climates

Air source heat pumps (ASHPs) in heating mode use a refrigeration cycle to remove heat from the outside air and transfer it into a building. Therefore, ASHPs have the potential to save energy compared to conventional heat sources that create the heat as opposed to transferring it from outside. Many cold climate ASHPs available on the market today can operate at outside temperatures of -25 degrees C (-13 degrees F) or even lower. As a result of technological advances and other factors, there is growing interest in ASHPs in cold climates, including very cold regions such as Alaska. However, guidance on the selection, installation, and operation of ASHPs in these very cold climates is limited, as significant data gaps exist regarding the performance of ASHPs in very cold environments. To address these data gaps and guide future innovations, our research team has studied the field performance of several ASHP installations in Alaska and done lab evaluations of several ASHP models using a cold chamber. While a cold chamber cannot fully reflect field conditions, it allowed for changing one variable at a time and gaining additional understanding of the behavior of ASHPs that would be difficult to gain from field studies only. This study focused on two main variables: the temperature in the chamber (representing the outdoor temperature) and the level of thermal loading of the ASHP. The results from the field as well as the lab show that ASHPs can operate with relatively high efficiency even in very cold climates if used in appropriate situations and in an appropriate way. It was found that not only the outside temperature, but also the level of thermal loading is a significant factor affecting the ASHP efficiency and needs to be carefully considered when sizing and operating ASHPs in very cold climates.

air source heat pump↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow With 25% Upsizing Allowance for Heating

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape upgrade - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation and where 25% upsizing (or 125% of the original size) is allowed for heating in colder climates (i.e., heating dominant regions). This document will primarily discuss the additional changes to the sizing algorithm and modeling approach, while a comprehensive overview of the fundamental modeling methodology and background of the VRF HR DOAS upgrade, including applicability and other key assumptions can be found in the original documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System. To provide more context on the 25% upsizing algorithm, if the building is a cooling dominant (e.g., design cooling load higher than design heating load ), then the outdoor unit capacity of the VRF heat pump is sized based on the design cooling load. However, if the building is heating dominant, then this building is a candidate for the 25% upsizing allowance. Once the 25% upsizing is allowed, if the 25% upsized capacity (or 125% from the original size) represented with design condition exceeds the design heating load, then the design heating load is used for calculating the rated capacity of the outdoor unit. And if the 25% upsized capacity represented with the design condition does not exceed the design heating load, then the 25% upsized capacity represented with rated condition is used for the capacity of the outdoor unit while the remaining heating load is handled with the supplemental/backup electric resistance coil.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗