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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of polymer grafting on the mechanical properties of PEG-grafted cellulose nanocrystals in poly(lactic acid)

Poly(lactic acid) (PLA) is a commercially available bio-based polymer that is a potential alternative to many commodity petrochemical-based polymers. However, PLA's thermomechanical properties limit its use in many applications. Incorporating polymer-grafted cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs) is one potential route to improving these mechanical properties. One key challenge in using these polymer-grafted nanoparticles is to understand which variables associated with polymer grafting are most important for improving composite properties. In this work, poly(ethylene glycol)-grafted CNCs are used to study the effects of polymer grafting density and molecular weight on the properties of PLA composites. All CNC nanofillers are found to reinforce PLA above the glass transition temperature, but non-grafted CNCs and CNCs grafted with short PEG chains (<2 kg mol –1 ) are found to cause significant embrittlement, generally resulting in less than 3% elongation-at-break. By grafting higher molecular weight PEG (10 kg mol –1 ) onto the CNCs at a grafting density where the polymer chains are predicted to be in the semi-dilute polymer brush conformation (~0.1 chains nm –2 ), embrittlement can be avoided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

High resolution identification and quantification of diffuse deep groundwater discharge in mountain rivers using continuous boat-mounted helium measurements

Discharge of deeply sourced groundwater to streams is difficult to locate and quantify, particularly where both discrete and diffuse discharge points exist, but diffuse discharge is one of the primary controls on solute budgets in mountainous watersheds. The noble gas helium is a unique identifier of deep groundwater discharge because groundwater with long residence times is commonly enriched in helium. In this study, a portable mass spectrometer was used to measure longitudinal variation in dissolved helium concentrations in two mountainous rivers at high spatial resolution not feasible with traditional sampling techniques. Helium profiles were then simulated using a mass-balance model to quantify longitudinal variation in groundwater discharge to the receiving rivers. Results indicate helium concentrations were enriched by multiple orders of magnitude above atmospheric equilibrium in both rivers and that this persisted for up to 18 km below observed pulse inputs in the Colorado River. Helium mass-balance models match observed longitudinal patterns with the exception of sharp initial increases in helium observed in the rivers. Increased longitudinal groundwater discharge rates correspond to mapped geologic structures in both watersheds that likely transport deep geothermal water. Models show variable sensitivity to spatial assignment of input variables representing the groundwater source, illustrating the importance of collecting data from discrete groundwater discharges where possible. The methodology shows promise for field experiments designed to assess air–water exchange rates and to quantify total groundwater discharge from a combination of discrete and diffuse sources.

Deep groundwater↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new control score concept for building performance assessment

In buildings, performance assessment often focuses on energy use with metrics such as energy use intensity (EUI) used to benchmark performance. However, energy performance of a building is fundamentally determined by the control system that engages the energy-using systems. There are two aspects of control that are of particular importance: (1) the ability to regulate process variables to their setpoints; and (2) whether the setpoints are at the right levels and/or following desired profiles. Most buildings do not reach their energy efficiency potential due to deficiencies in control performance and operators do not have access to metrics that can illuminate these deficiencies. Here this paper addresses this problem by providing novel techniques that combine these two aspects of control performance into a single standardized score on the scale of 0-10. The concept of a standardized control scores enables all systems in a building to be compared on the same scale and also for scores to be rolled up to different levels in the building and system hierarchy for system-wide analysis. The paper presents the theory for the method, describes a prototype tool for displaying scores, and presents results from application to a large building in Minneapolis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Rate Coefficient Parameterizations From Ambient Measurements

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of particles that can have an outsized impact relative to their prevalence. To simulate INP variability, models require parameterizations for the most important sources of INPs. Most parameterizations in the literature were developed from laboratory experiments that used proxies for ambient particles. Whether these laboratory models effectively represent ambient aerosol is still not well understood and parameterizations developed from field measurements may be more atmospherically relevant. Expanding on previous work in which we used an ice chamber and a single-particle mass spectrometer (SPMS) to characterize INP composition, we calculate heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients for ambient particles. We find good agreement between our dust and previous measurements of airborne dust. We also use a Monte Carlo approach to assess the relative contribution of each measurement to the uncertainty and find that the biggest source is the sampling efficiency of the SPMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Theory and simulations of linear and nonlinear two-dimensional Rayleigh–Taylor dynamics with variable acceleration

Interfacial Rayleigh–Taylor mixing is crucial to describing important natural and engineering processes, such as exploding supernovae, laser micromachining, hot spots in inertial confinement fusion, and optical telecommunications. These require the characterization of the time dependence of the driving acceleration. We compare our theoretical formulation based on group theory foundations with interface-capturing numerical simulations for linear and nonlinear two-dimensional Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in a finite-sized domain with time-varying acceleration over broad ranges of Atwood numbers and acceleration exponents. Detailed corroboration between theory and simulations is provided for this foundational case. Both demonstrate the strong interfacial nature of Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities, which suggests that practical flow fields can be reconstructed from the derived fluid potential using the proposed theory. A robust agreement is also obtained for the early and late-time evolution of the amplitudes of the bubble and spike, which demonstrate that the Rayleigh–Taylor flow can transition to the mixing regime even for a single-mode initial perturbation. Corroboration with experiments of high energy density plasmas motivated by studies of supernovae is also achieved. In addition, a long-standing puzzle in Rayleigh–Taylor dynamics on the interplay between the acceleration, the shear, and the interface morphology in the theory and simulations is resolved by accounting for finite viscosity of the fluids. The characterization of Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities as a highly interfacial phenomenon provides valuable insight into its multiscale nature, which enhances the design and understanding of numerous processes of practical interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Field validation of an actuated convergent-beam acoustic Doppler profiler for high resolution flow mapping

Abstract Energetic river and tidal flow environments feature complex hydrodynamic conditions. Conventional acoustic Doppler profiling instrumentation typically requires assumptions of flow homogeneity over the spatial scales of the divergent beam separation. This removes the ability to measure spatio-temporal variability within the flow. However, velocity variability within these spatial scales is often important in the design of structures and devices exposed to such flow, informing dynamic and peak hydrodynamic load predictions. The research presented outlines the development and testing of a flow measurement instrument consisting of multiple spatially-separated single beam acoustic Doppler profilers converging on a remote focal point, the location of which can be programmatically adjusted through actuation. This increases the spatial resolution at which remote field measurements can be made in energetic flow environments. Field testing of the instrument was conducted in a tidal channel at Sequim Bay Inlet, WA, USA. Results are compared with independent reference measurements made by a co-located, motion-corrected acoustic Doppler velocimeter. This comparison, across tidal velocities of 0.4–0.7 m s −1 , showed a mean velocity error of 0.5%–13.2% across nine sample locations within a 3.00 m × 2.25 m plane. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first publication of flow velocity results from non-intrusive acoustic measurements at an off-axis, focal point location that features 3D positional control.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic charm and the 𝐷 + − 𝐷 − asymmetry produced in proton-proton collisions

We investigate the contribution of the charm-anticharm (𝑐⁢$\overline{𝑐}$) asymmetry of the proton eigenstate obtained from QCD lattice gauge to the asymmetry of 𝐷 + , 𝐷 − and 𝐷 0 , $\overline{𝐷}$ 0 mesons produced in 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at large Feynman variables 𝑥. It is shown that an important tool for establishing the intrinsic charm (IC) content of the proton is the charm hadron-antihadron asymmetry formed in 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions. Predictions for the asymmetry as a function of 𝑥 for different IC probabilities are presented. We show that the interference of the intrinsic |𝑢⁢𝑢⁢𝑑⁢𝑐⁢$\overline{𝑐}$⟩ Fock state with the standard contribution from the perturbative QCD evolution leads to a large 𝐷 + ⁢𝐷 − asymmetry at large Feynman 𝑥.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar Radiation Measurements (CRADA Final Report)

Long-term solar radiation measurements are important for understanding solar resource availability and variability for systems design and deployment of cost-effective solar resource technologies. Additionally high-quality traceable solar measurements are required to validate satellite-based solar resource datasets that provide high-resolution long-term data covering the US. The purpose and intent of this agreement is to collect long-term solar radiation and meteorological measurements from the state-of-the-art facility at the University of Arizona to meet the above needs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dataset for "Development of heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient parameterizations from ambient measurements"

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of particles that can have an outsized impact relative to their prevalence. To simulate INP variability, models require parameterizations for the most important sources of INPs. Most parameterizations in the literature were developed from laboratory experiments that used proxies for ambient particles. Whether these laboratory models effectively represent ambient aerosol is still not well understood and parameterizations developed from field measurements may be more atmospherically relevant. Expanding on previous work in which we used an ice chamber and an single particle mass spectrometer (SPMS) to characterize INP composition, we use the combined measurements to calculate heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients for ambient particles. We find good agreement between our results for dust and sea spray aerosol with previous results. We also determine the relative contribution of each measurement to the total measurement uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach and find that the biggest source of uncertainty is the sampling efficiency of the SPMS.

Cornwell, Gavin C↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America

Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Origin of Structural Diversity of DNA Double Helix

Deciphering the contribution of DNA subunits to the variability of its 3D structure represents an important step toward the elucidation of DNA functions at the atomic level. In the pursuit of that goal, our previous studies revealed that the essential conformational characteristics of the most populated “canonic” BI and AI conformational families of Watson–Crick duplexes, including the sequence dependence of their 3D structure, preexist in the local energy minima of the elemental single-chain fragments, deoxydinucleoside monophosphates (dDMPs). Those computations have uncovered important sequence-dependent regularity in the superposition of neighbor bases. The present work expands our studies to new minimal fragments of DNA with Watson–Crick nucleoside pairs that differ from canonic families in the torsion angles of the sugar-phosphate backbone (SPB). To address this objective, computations have been performed on dDMPs, cdDMPs (complementary dDMPs), and minimal fragments of SPBs of respective systems by using methods of molecular and quantum mechanics. These computations reveal that the conformations of dDMPs and cdDMPs having torsion angles of SPB corresponding to the local energy minima of separate minimal units of SPB exhibit sequence-dependent characteristics representative of canonic families. In contrast, conformations of dDMP and cdDMP with SPB torsions being far from the local minima of separate SPB units exhibit more complex sequence dependence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Phase-Locking of Tropical North Atlantic and the Contribution of ENSO

The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) is characterized by significant interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST), which is phase-locked to the boreal spring. In this study, the phase-locking of TNA is investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model (SDM) using seasonally modulated TNA feedbacks together with the seasonal modulation of ENSO forcing. In the observations, the role of local TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing in TNA phase-locking are equivalently important with both preferring the peak of TNA variability to appear in the boreal spring. Besides, the seasonal modulation of TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing strength are both mainly controlled by thermodynamic processes. In most climate models, the contribution of ENSO on TNA phase-locking is weaker than that in observations. The strength of ENSO-related TNA phase-locking is highly correlated with the relationship between ENSO and TNA, which is mainly determined by the amplitude of ENSO and its teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved dryland carbon flux predictions with explicit consideration of water-carbon coupling

Dryland ecosystems are dominant influences on both the trend and interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. Despite their importance, dryland carbon dynamics are not well-characterized by current models. Here, we present DryFlux, an upscaled product built on a dense network of eddy covariance sites in the North American Southwest. To estimate dryland gross primary productivity, we fuse in situ fluxes with remote sensing and meteorological observations using machine learning. DryFlux explicitly accounts for intra-annual variation in water availability, and accurately predicts interannual and seasonal variability in carbon uptake. Applying DryFlux globally indicates existing products may underestimate impacts of large-scale climate patterns on the interannual variability of dryland carbon uptake. We anticipate DryFlux will be an improved benchmark for earth system models in drylands, and prompt a more sensitive accounting of water limitation on the carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗