Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17

Calculations of rate constants for the three-body recombination of H2 in the presence of H2

A new global potential energy hypersurface for H2 + H2 is constructed and quasiclassical trajectory calculations performed using the resonance complex theory and energy transfer mechanism to estimate the rate of three body recombination over the temperature range 100 to 5000 K. The new potential is a faithful representation of ab initio electron structure calculations, is unchanged under the operation of exchanging H atoms, and reproduces the accurate H3 potential as one H atom is pulled away. Included in the fitting procedure are geometries expected to be important when one H2 is near or above the dissociation limit. The dynamics calculations explicitly include the motion of all four atoms and are performed efficiently using a vectorized variable-stepsize integrator. The predicted rate constants are approximately a factor of two smaller than experimental estimates over a broad temperature range.

Schwenke, David W.↗

Probalistic Finite Elements (PFEM) structural dynamics and fracture mechanics

The purpose of this work is to develop computationally efficient methodologies for assessing the effects of randomness in loads, material properties, and other aspects of a problem by a finite element analysis. The resulting group of methods is called probabilistic finite elements (PFEM). The overall objective of this work is to develop methodologies whereby the lifetime of a component can be predicted, accounting for the variability in the material and geometry of the component, the loads, and other aspects of the environment; and the range of response expected in a particular scenario can be presented to the analyst in addition to the response itself. Emphasis has been placed on methods which are not statistical in character; that is, they do not involve Monte Carlo simulations. The reason for this choice of direction is that Monte Carlo simulations of complex nonlinear response require a tremendous amount of computation. The focus of efforts so far has been on nonlinear structural dynamics. However, in the continuation of this project, emphasis will be shifted to probabilistic fracture mechanics so that the effect of randomness in crack geometry and material properties can be studied interactively with the effect of random load and environment.

Liu, Wing-Kam↗

Life extending control: An interdisciplinary engineering thrust

The concept of Life Extending Control (LEC) is introduced. Possible extensions to the cyclic damage prediction approach are presented based on the identification of a model from elementary forms. Several candidate elementary forms are presented. These extensions will result in a continuous or differential form of the damage prediction model. Two possible approaches to the LEC based on the existing cyclic damage prediction method, the measured variables LEC and the estimated variables LEC, are defined. Here, damage estimates or measurements would be used directly in the LEC. A simple hydraulic actuator driven position control system example is used to illustrate the main ideas behind LEC. Results from a simple hydraulic actuator example demonstrate that overall system performance (dynamic plus life) can be maximized by accounting for component damage in the control design.

Lorenzo, Carl F.↗

Multiple dataset water-quality analyses in the vicinity of an ocean wastewater plume

The White's Point ocean outfall is the method of disposal for approximately 374 million gallons of treated wastewater per day from Los Angeles County. The photosynthetic characteristics and particle distributions have well-defined properties that can be exploited to yield information on transport of the plume, mixing dynamics, and resuspension of bottom sediments during periods of bottom current velocity in excess of ca. 0.1 m/s. This plume of particles serves as a conservative tracer, which was studied using a number of sampling platforms and strategies, including underway sawtooth, or 'tow-yo' sampling, moored arrays of instruments, stationary profiling, and now for the first time with remotely-sensed multispectral color imagery. Research in this area previously focused on examination of the plume as it relates to the local current field and transport of particles, and on the resuspension of bottom sediments during periods of increased currents. In addition, Wu et al elucidated techniques for separating the particle signal into photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic components, based on the beam attenuation to chlorophyll fluorescence ratio. High-frequency time series measurements of the current field and bio-optical characteristics at a site close to the waste diffusers were also collected. These are being analyzed for the spectral characteristics of the longer-timescale variability, in order to predict particle transport through simple meteorological measurements. With the advent of high spectral and spatial resolution imaging spectrometers such as AVIRIS, it is now possible to construct causal relationships between particle distributions and signature of the upwelled radiance from the surface. The availability of a constant and well-characterized source of material lends itself well to models which predict upwelled radiance from the surface. The availability of a constant and well-characterized source of material lends itself well to models which predict upwelled light as a function of particle distributions, photosynthetic pigments, colored dissolved organic material, and detrital and degradation products of photosynthesis. In addition, the spatial coverage provided by the tow-yo sampling device, combined with the profile measurements of the light field, should facilitate the best inverse modeling attempts possible thus far.

Hamilton, Michael↗

EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations

This paper presents a new solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) flux model for aeronomic calulations (EUVAC), which is based on the measured F74113 solar EUV reference spectrum. The model provides fluxes in the 37 wavelength bins that are in widespread use. This paper also presents cross sections to be used with the EUVAC flux model to calculate photoionization rates. The flux scaling for solar activity is accomplished using a proxy-based on the F10.7 index and its 81-day average together with the measured solar flux variation from the EUVS instrument on the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite. This new model produces 50-575 A integrated EUV fluxes in good agreement with rocket observations. The solar cycle variation of the chromospheric fluxes agrees well with the measured variation of the Lyman alpha flux between 1982 and 1988. In addition, the theoretical photoelectron fluxes, calculated using the new EUV flux model, are in good agreement with the solar minimum photoelectron fluxes from the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite and also with the solar maximum photoelectron fluxes from the Dynamics Explorer satellite. Its relative simplicity coupled with its ability to reproduce the 50-575 A solar EUV flux as well as the measured photoelectron spectrum makes the model well suited for aeronomic applications. However, EUVAC is not designed to accurately predict the solar flux variability for numerous individual lines.

Richards, P. G.↗

Heat Transfer in the Turbulent Incompressible Boundary Layer: Arbitrary Wall Temperature and Heat Flux - 3

Superposition techniques are used to calculate the rate of heat transfer from a flat plate to a turbulent incompressible boundary layer for several cases of variable surface temperature. The predictions of a number of these calculations are compared with experimental heat-transfer rates, and good agreement is obtained. A simple computing procedure for determining the heat-transfer rates from surfaces with arbitrary wall-temperature distributions is presented and illustrated by two examples. The inverse problem of determining the temperature distribution from an arbitrarily prescribed heat flux is also treated, both experimentally and analytically.

Reynolds, W. C.↗

Heat Transfer in the Turbulent Incompressible Boundary Layer: Arbitrary Wall Temperature and Heat Flux - 3

Superposition techniques are used to calculate the rate of heat transfer from a flat plate to a turbulent incompressible boundary layer for several cases of variable surface temperature. The predictions of a number of these calculations are compared with experimental heat- transfer rates, and good agreement is obtained. A simple computing procedure for determining the heat-transfer rates from surfaces with arbitrary wall-temperature distributions is presented and illustrated by two examples. The inverse problem of determining the temperature distribution from an arbitrarily prescribed heat flux is also treated, both experimentally and analytically.

Reynolds, W. C.↗

Examination of the Lateral Attenuation of Aircraft Noise

Measurements of the lateral attenuation of noise from aircraft operations at Denver International Airport were made at distances up to 2000 feet and elevation angles up to 27 degrees. Attenuation Calculated from modem ground impedance theory agrees well with average measured attenuation. The large variability between measured and predicted levels observed at small elevation angles is demonstrated to be due to refraction by wind and temperature gradients.

Plotkin, Kenneth J.↗

Global Design Optimization for Fluid Machinery Applications

Recent experiences in utilizing the global optimization methodology, based on polynomial and neural network techniques for fluid machinery design are summarized. Global optimization methods can utilize the information collected from various sources and by different tools. These methods offer multi-criterion optimization, handle the existence of multiple design points and trade-offs via insight into the entire design space can easily perform tasks in parallel, and are often effective in filtering the noise intrinsic to numerical and experimental data. Another advantage is that these methods do not need to calculate the sensitivity of each design variable locally. However, a successful application of the global optimization method needs to address issues related to data requirements with an increase in the number of design variables and methods for predicting the model performance. Examples of applications selected from rocket propulsion components including a supersonic turbine and an injector element and a turbulent flow diffuser are used to illustrate the usefulness of the global optimization method.

Shyy, Wei↗

Global Design Optimization for Aerodynamics and Rocket Propulsion Components

Modern computational and experimental tools for aerodynamics and propulsion applications have matured to a stage where they can provide substantial insight into engineering processes involving fluid flows, and can be fruitfully utilized to help improve the design of practical devices. In particular, rapid and continuous development in aerospace engineering demands that new design concepts be regularly proposed to meet goals for increased performance, robustness and safety while concurrently decreasing cost. To date, the majority of the effort in design optimization of fluid dynamics has relied on gradient-based search algorithms. Global optimization methods can utilize the information collected from various sources and by different tools. These methods offer multi-criterion optimization, handle the existence of multiple design points and trade-offs via insight into the entire design space, can easily perform tasks in parallel, and are often effective in filtering the noise intrinsic to numerical and experimental data. However, a successful application of the global optimization method needs to address issues related to data requirements with an increase in the number of design variables, and methods for predicting the model performance. In this article, we review recent progress made in establishing suitable global optimization techniques employing neural network and polynomial-based response surface methodologies. Issues addressed include techniques for construction of the response surface, design of experiment techniques for supplying information in an economical manner, optimization procedures and multi-level techniques, and assessment of relative performance between polynomials and neural networks. Examples drawn from wing aerodynamics, turbulent diffuser flows, gas-gas injectors, and supersonic turbines are employed to help demonstrate the issues involved in an engineering design context. Both the usefulness of the existing knowledge to aid current design practices and the need for future research are identified.

Shyy, Wei↗

Space Flight Plasma Data Analysis

This slide presentation reviews a method to analyze the plasma data that is reported on board the International Space station (ISS). The Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU), the role of which is to obtain floating potential and ionosphere plasma measurements for validation of the ISS charging model, assess photo voltaic array variability and interpreting IRI predictions, is composed of four probes: Floating Potential Probe (FPP), Wide-sweep Langmuir Probe (WLP), Narrow-sweep Langmuir Probe (NLP) and the Plasma Impedance Probe (PIP). This gives redundant measurements of each parameter. There are also many 'boxes' that the data must pass through before being captured by the ground station, which leads to telemetry noise. Methods of analysis for the various signals from the different sets are reviewed. There is also a brief discussion of LP analysis of Low Earth Orbit plasma simulation source.

Wright, Kenneth H.↗

Investigating Response from Attached and Separated Flow Excitations on a Real Launch Vehicle using SEA

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) response has been fairly well anchored to test observations for Diffuse Acoustic Field (DAF) loading by others. Meanwhile, not many examples can be found in the literature anchoring the SEA vehicle panel response results to Turbulent Boundary Layer (TBL) fluctuating pressure excitations. This deficiency is especially true for supersonic trajectories such as those required by this nation s launch vehicles. Response and excitation data from vehicle flight measurements gathered during the development flight era of the Space Shuttle have been used in a trial to assess the sensitivity of response analysis to certain known and unknown parameters of the flight. This assessment compares vibration response predictions for TBL excitations produced by the SEA tool to flight measurements. A secondary, but perhaps more important objective, is to provide more clarity concerning the accuracy and conservatism that can be expected from response estimates to TBL-excited vehicle models in SEA. What range of parameters must be included in such an analysis in order to land on the conservative side in response predictions? What is the variability produced in the results with changes in these parameters? The TBL fluid structure loading model used for this study is provided from the SEA module of the commercial code VA One.

Harrison, Phil↗

Key Differences in Operating a Rover on the Moon vs. Mars

The command and control model for spacecraft operations, as well as the distribution of tasks between ground assets and in space assets, whether with a crew or solely robotic, is fundamentally constrained by the round trip light time between the space asset and the control facility (presumably on Earth, though not required). For an asset on Mars, the round trip light time varies, from roughly fourteen minutes to up to forty minutes. For a Lunar asset the round-trip light time is measured in only a few seconds, but current communications systems may more than double the latency with system overhead. For a Lunar Asset the total command latency may range from six seconds to more than forty, depending on communications overhead and data rates. Further, these variables are not always predictable, thus complicating operations. There are several differentiating factors for Lunar vs. Mars operations, Round trip light time/Atmosphere/Lighting and ShadowsTerrain type and knowledge/Round trip light time has implications for the distribution of tasks between ground and in space assets. Even at Lunar Distances, the combination of round trip light time plus communications systems overhead does not enable joy stick driving of a rover. The best that can be done, if driving from Earth, is near real time command and control. By 2030, driving from in space may be possible. Productivity on Mars requires either long operational sequences of commands, as is done for current rovers such as Curiosity, significant autonomous capability or, as may be possible by 2030, command and control support from space. Another implication of the long round trip light time from Earth to Mars, is that flight software functions must be resident on the in space asset. On the Moon, there is considerably more flexibility, enabling processing functions, to be resident on Earth or in space. This provides the opportunity to take advantage of the considerable processing power available on the ground, but may be constrained by data rates. On the Moon, for practical operational purposes, there is no atmosphere. Hence there is no scattering of light in the shadows. This has implications for image interpretation and driving near the poles. The Moon has permanently shadowed regions (PSR), unique terrain with unknown surface properties. With no scattering of light in shadows, driving on the Moon, particularly at the poles, where we have strong evidence of water, may prove to be hazardous and complex, requiring non-optical sensors, such as LIDAR.

Trimble, Jay↗

Evaluation Studies of Solid Oxide-Based Fuel Cells for Light-Weight Electrical Power in Aviation: Concepts and Opportunities for the Application of Additive Manufacturing

Currently NASA is investigating the feasibility of hybrid-electric, solid oxide fuel cell power (SOFC) systems for generating electrical power for airborne propulsion and secondary/auxiliary power. As part of this project, researchers are investigating the performance of SOFC hardware in aviation-like environments, to establish the barriers, and potential suitability, of this technology. Immediate findings indicate the unsuitability of current SOFC stack architectures with regards to ease of manufacture, specific energy, as well as environmental and mechanical durability. One possible solution is to create light-weight high specific energy density solid oxide fuel cells. The possibility may be achievable by the use of modern processing techniques such as additive manufacturing. Here I discuss the use additive manufacturing to fabricate ceramic anode, electrolytes, and cathode cells supported on various metal foams with predicted performance based upon variable porosities

Goldsby, Jon C.↗

Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans

While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we produce seasonal predictions of chlorophyll concentration at the global scale. Results show significant Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) for the majority of regions (11 out of the 12 regions for the 1-month lead forecast). Root mean square errors are smaller (<0.05μg chlorophyll (chl) L−1) in the Equatorial regions compared to the higher latitudes(range from 0.05 up to 0.13 μg chl L−1). The forecast for all regions except three (North Atlantic, South Pacific and North Indian) are within the Semi-Interquartile Range of the satellite chlorophyll concentration (Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), 27.9%). This suggests the potential for skillful global biogeochemical forecasts on seasonal timescales of chlorophyll, primary production and harmful algal blooms that could support fisheries management and other applications.

ocean biogeochemistry↗

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗

Space sickness predictors suggest fluid shift involvement and possible countermeasures

Preflight data from 64 first time Shuttle crew members were examined retrospectively to predict space sickness severity (NONE, MILD, MODERATE, or SEVERE) by discriminant analysis. From 9 input variables relating to fluid, electrolyte, and cardiovascular status, 8 variables were chosen by discriminant analysis that correctly predicted space sickness severity with 59 pct. success by one method of cross validation on the original sample and 67 pct. by another method. The 8 variables in order of their importance for predicting space sickness severity are sitting systolic blood pressure, serum uric acid, calculated blood volume, serum phosphate, urine osmolality, environmental temperature at the launch site, red cell count, and serum chloride. These results suggest the presence of predisposing physiologic factors to space sickness that implicate a fluid shift etiology. Addition of a 10th input variable, hours spent in the Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF), improved the prediction of space sickness severity to 66 pct. success by the first method of cross validation on the original sample and to 71 pct. by the second method. The data suggest that WETF training may reduce space sickness severity.

Simanonok, K. E.↗