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DOE OSTI2022

Local Power: Comparing County-Level Renewable Energy Potential to Consumption Using the SLOPE Platform

Wide-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. Many communities have ambitious clean energy goals with targets for locally generated renewable energy. To inform state and local clean energy planning, analysts from the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) used data from NREL's State and Local Planning for Energy (SLOPE) platform to compare annual technical generation potential of renewable energy technologies to modeled electricity consumption in every county of the contiguous United States. Annual costs were calculated to produce a 20% share of electricity consumed annually from each technology to examine localized cost effectiveness of a diversified mix of generation sources. For example, combining distributed and utility-scale wind and solar generation can offset the need for storage and nonintermittent fossil resources to achieve high deployment of renewables. This county-level analysis provides insight into where localized renewable energy generation could cost-effectively match annual electricity consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries. Our residential MMP benchmark ($2.90 per watt direct current [Wdc]) is 24% higher than the MSP benchmark ($2.34/Wdc) and 9% lower than our MMP benchmark ($3.18/Wdc) from Q1 2022 in 2022 U.S. dollars (USD). For community solar, our MMP benchmark ($1.75/Wdc) is 18% higher than our MSP benchmark ($1.49/Wdc). Our Q1 2022 benchmark report has no community solar system for comparison. For utility-scale systems with one-axis tracking, our MMP benchmark ($1.17/Wdc) is 22% higher than our MSP benchmark ($0.96/Wdc) and 10% higher than its counterpart ($1.07/Wdc) in Q1 2022 in 2022 USD.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasonic Measurements of Temperature Profile and Heat Fluxes in Coal-Fired Power Plants (Final Report)

Many industrial processes are inaccessible or inhospitable to characterization by traditional temperature measurement methods, such as thermocouples, especially over prolonged exposure to harsh environments. Ultrasound is an established characterization technology with diverse applications ranging from medical imaging to therapies to flaw detection to nondestructive evaluation. Ultrasound may characterize solid materials and components noninvasively as a nondestructive evaluation modality and obtain internal measurements of material properties. For example, the speed of ultrasound propagation changes with Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which can be found from its measurements. Traditional ultrasonic characterization assumes all material properties remain constant with the position. When this assumption holds, a property of interest may be measured by relating it to the speed of ultrasound propagation (or a speed of sound, SOS) and measuring the SOS by timing the ultrasound propagation through a known distance. However, when a property of interest is spatially distributed, the propagation time depends on the SOS changing with the position along the ultrasound propagation path. The multiple temperature distributions may lead to an identical time of flight (TOF). Temperature is one property that impacts the speed of ultrasound and often cannot be assumed to remain constant with the position. Previously, in the context of temperature, we addressed the challenge of ultrasonic characterization of spatially distributed properties by developing a method for measuring segmental temperature distributions (MSTD). This method divides the ultrasonic propagation into segments bound by echogenic features. These features provide ultrasonic interfaces where some energy is reflected toward the receiving transducer, and the rest continues through the medium. The time-of-flight between the echoes reflected from echogenic features characterizes the spatial distribution in the properties of interest in the corresponding segment of the ultrasonic propagation path. This project demonstrated the application of the MSTD method in industrial conditions of the coal-fired power plant. We implemented the MSTD using metals and alloys waveguides, which may be the existing structure for which the temperature distribution is characterized or purposefully designed waveguides added to the structure by welding or other means specifically to quantify thermal properties using the MSTD method. Previous iterations of the MSTD method used ceramic and cementitious waveguides, which significantly attenuate ultrasound. On the other hand, low attenuation in metallic waveguides creates interactions between echogenic features which compilates the signal analysis in the segmental TOF measurements. We have established the WG design principles that minimize the interferences between trailing and primary echoes and, in some cases, eliminate them. The waveguides in which echoes do not interfere improve the timing accuracy and the robustness of ultrasonic measurements of the spatial distributions in material properties. Our emphasis remained on the estimation of the temperature distributions. We have developed general recommendations for designing ultrasonically segmented waveguides with the reduced influence of trailing echoes. Two of our waveguide designs were tested in the industry. The first waveguide was designed for insertion into a combustion zone of the utility-scale coal-fired power plant boiler. The second design allows the characterization of temperature distribution in the direction normal to the boiler’s water wall, a large heat exchanger converting the chemical energy released during combustion to the steam driving the electrical power generation turbines. These waveguides were designed to operate within a restrictive space of thermally insulated water wall and incorporate densely located echogenic features while combatting the influence of trailing echoes. The project has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using the developed method for accurate, continuous, and robust temperature measurements in extreme environments of power generation and other industrial processes. It, therefore, has achieved its overarching goal of advancing the technology readiness level of the novel Ultrasound Measurements of Segmental Temperature Distribution (US-MSTD) method for real-time measurements of the temperature distribution and heat fluxes closer to commercial availability, developing a prototype multipoint measurement system, and validating its performance on coal-fired utility boilers. The success of this project was achieved in collaboration with the power generator, Rocky Mountain Power, and set the stage for the transfer of this technology from the laboratory to the industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Distribution System Restoration Planning and Real-Time Dispatch Considering Behind-the-Meter DERs

Modern distribution systems are becoming more resilient against power outages thanks to the flexible generation capacity provided by the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Compared to utility-scale DERs, which can be directly controlled by system operators, small-scale, behind-the-meter DERs are much more difficult to coordinate despite being the vast majority. Two major obstacles to the implementation of DERs for service restoration are the coordination of behind-the-meter DERs and the management of uncertainty. In this paper, a novel distribution system restoration strategy is proposed to overcome these two obstacles. The flexibility of be-hind-the-meter DERs is quantified and integrated into the restoration planning models within a hierarchical structure. The model predictive control technique is employed to enable adaptive restoration planning solution adjustments to accommodate fault scenarios and forecast errors. Besides, real-time power dispatch models are proposed to maintain power balance using available DER capability. Comprehensive integration of adaptive restoration planning schemes and real-time dispatch results are achieved through a collaborative restoration framework. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy is verified through a modified IEEE 123-bus system and a real-world utility system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Limiter-aware adaptive excitation control for hydropower generators with legacy voltage regulation systems

Hydropower units often rely on legacy excitation systems with fixed automatic voltage regulator (AVR) settings, but parameter drift, changing operating conditions, and evolving grid-service demands can degrade terminal-voltage regulation over time. This problem should be addressed because poor voltage regulation affects reactive-power support, system stability, and reliable plant operation, and replacing installed AVR and limiter logic is costly and disruptive in practice. To address this issue, this paper proposes a retrofit-friendly enhancement for hydropower generator excitation systems that combines adaptive tuning of the AVR middle lead–lag branch with a small proportional-integral correction for removing steady bias and slow drift. The adaptive laws are normalized, projection-bounded, and equipped with leakage, while adaptation is enabled only in the middle branch. Thus, the intent of the underexcitation and overexcitation limiters, as well as legacy current and rate limits, remains unchanged. Stability is analyzed under incremental performance assumptions, yielding boundedness and asymptotic tracking in the absence of saturation. The method is evaluated using real operational data from a utility-scale hydropower unit at Rocky Reach Dam, Unit C-8. Compared with the fixed AVR baseline, the proposed method reduces terminal-voltage mean squared error by about 70%, removes long periods of steady-state bias, and improves transient tracking while coexisting with limiter actions. These results show that substantial voltage-control improvement can be achieved on existing hydropower units with minimal integration effort and without replacing the installed AVR structure.

ESST5B model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Resource Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS)

This document provides system-level specifications for a federated architecture for secure and transactive distributed energy resource management solutions (FAST-DERMS), presents a solution, and describes operational concepts for the proposed solution. FAST-DERMS enables the provision of reliable, resilient, and secure transmission and distribution (T&D) grid services through the scalable aggregation and near-real-time management of utility-scale and small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs). We first present the principles and objectives of FAST-DERMS. Then, after discussing important system concepts, we present the specifications for FAST-DERMS and a solution that employs a distributed and federated control methodology in which the DERs connected to a single point of common coupling with the rest of the system, such as individual substations, are optimized coordinately to provide system-level grid services. FAST-DERMS aims to aggregate and coordinate the operations of DERs to support T&D grid operations. The key optimization and control component of this FAST-DERMS reference implementation is a flexible resource scheduler (FRS) that aggregates the DERs within a substation service area. These FRSs operate at the substation level and perform constrained economic dispatch of DERs, either directly or through a transactive market or aggregator, as shown in Figure ES-1. An FRS Coordinator at the distribution system operator (DSO) level aggregates distribution substations operated by FRSs and interfaces with the transmission system operator (TSO) to provide transmission services. FAST-DERMS also allows for the integration of the FRS Coordinator with an existing distribution utility management system that could be employed by the DSO to enhance distribution grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled-DC Module-Based Photovoltaic System With Power Mismatch-Tolerated Modulation

Here, this article presents a coupled-DC power module-based cascaded multilevel converter integrating utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generations (coupled-DC-link power module (CDPM)-PV). CDPM-PV inherits merits such as modular structure, distributed maximum power point tracking (MPPT), direct distribution grid access, from cascaded H-bridge-based PV (CHB-PV) system. But, it supplies more flexible power routes than CHB-PV, through coupling different DC-links. Power routes are intended for enlarging the entire operating range including conditions of active power mismatch arising from nonideal elements such as partial shading and parameter variations. The system construction with its self-balancing principle is first introduced. Switching states for different operating regions are then derived based on the principle of easing implementation. Based on these, a modulation strategy including initial switching pattern selection and coordinated power routing is proposed to allow module-mismatches. Operating ranges are also analyzed and compared with conventional CHB-PV. Simulation results of a 3-MW/13.8-kV system developed in MATLAB/Simulink platform, and experiment results based on a 2.4-kW/311-V setup are presented and have demonstrated that the CDPM-PV topology with proposed modulation strategy can not only ride through a larger range of module mismatches, but also improve solar power utilization and system efficiency owing to noncompromised MPPT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Catalytic Membrane Reactor for DME Synthesis from Renewable Resources

Production of liquid fuels or chemicals from CO 2 (captured from the air or flue gases) and renewable hydrogen presents a new approach to producing clean fuels domestically. While significant progress has been made in the area of renewable electricity generation from solar and wind, a large gap remains with respect to the production of renewable liquid fuels/chemicals. Other processes for producing liquid fuels/chemicals from renewable electricity are constrained by thermodynamic limitations, making them prohibitively expensive and impractical. The team is overcoming these limitations and developing catalytic membrane reactor processes with high yields and low energy penalties. Supported by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) of the US Department of Energy (DOE), GTI Energy and partners have been developing a technology for the production of renewable dimethyl ether (DME) from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and renewable hydrogen (H 2 ) using a novel catalytic membrane reactor and demonstration of this system at a scale of 1 kg/day. DME is a clean-burning, non-toxic fuel with a high cetane value (55-60), making it an excellent diesel alternative. DME can be stored as a liquid under moderate pressure, eliminating the need for the high-pressure containers used for CNG or cryogenics, as in the case of LNG. DME is also approved as a renewable fuel under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), making it eligible for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) credits. By producing DME through the catalytic conversion of captured CO 2 and renewable H 2 , this process will produce renewable liquid transportation fuel and a means of large-scale utilization of captured CO 2 . In the DME synthesis process, CO 2 and H 2 are fed to a hollow fiber catalytic membrane reactor at 300-600 psig that contains a bi-functional catalyst that combines two reactions, methanol synthesis (CO 2 + 3H 2 → CH 3 OH + H 2 O) and methanol dehydration (2CH 3 OH → CH 3 OCH 3 + H 2 O), into a one-step process to produce DME. The bifunctional catalyst converts methanol to DME, enabling higher overall CO 2 conversion. A Cu/ZnO/ZrO 2 /Al 2 O 3 (CZZA) catalyst is used for methanol synthesis and is coupled with a zeolite catalyst H-ZSM-5 for dehydration. This one-step process intensifies a process that would otherwise require multiple reaction steps. However, combining these two reactions results in increased water production which inhibits catalytic activity. Here, the Na + -gated, water-transport membrane (Science, vol. 367, pp. 667, 2020), removes water in situ, shifting the thermodynamic equilibrium towards product formation while decreasing kinetic inhibition from water adsorption onto the catalyst surface. The Na + gated, water-transport nanochannel membrane showed H 2 O/CO 2 selectivity of 560 at 250 °C and 300 psig for H 2 O/CO 2 /CO/H 2 /MeOH gas mixtures. The selectivities of H 2 O/H 2 , H 2 O/CO, and H 2 O/MeOH were 190, 170, and 80, respectively. In a laboratory-scale membrane reactor, DME synthesis testing using this membrane, a DME production rate of 440 g DME /kg cat /h was achieved at 260 °C and 550 psig. Compared to the packed bed reactor, the CO 2 conversion and DME production rate in the membrane reactor were 80% and three times higher, respectively. A prototype test system (1 kg/day) was designed, constructed, and tested. A DME production rate of 1.31 kg/day and a DME productivity of 360 g/h/kg were achieved in the prototype membrane reactor. Good stability was demonstrated during 150-h continuous operation and multiple startups/shutdowns tests.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

IACMI Project 4.7: Pultruded Textile Carbon Fiber for Spar Caps (Final Report)

The primary objective of this project was to demonstrate the potential to significantly reduce the cost of wind turbine blades with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) structure. Applicability of textile carbon fibers (TCF) were evaluated for use in pultruded spar cap (SC) elements as a path to cost reduction for utility scale wind turbine blades. In earlier work for the Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), a collaboration of Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Montana State University has demonstrated potential for pultruded TCF to compete with infused fiberglass and commercially available carbon fiber pultruded sections for spar cap construction. In the design cases evaluated, the TCF sections fared well when compared on cost per unit composite stiffness and cost per unit composite compressive strength for those designs [1]. Both stiffness and compressive strength tend to be key factors in the design of blade composite Spar Cap which carry the bulk of the blade structural loads in bending. Spar Cap design tends to distribute largely symmetric tensile and compressive stresses to opposite sides of the spar structure, but since carbon fiber composite compressive strength is typically 20-50% lower than tensile strength, the compressive loading reaches failure levels well before the tensile loading. Stiffness is critical in containing the large tip deflection in high wind loading situations. However, materials and process development were very limited in the earlier study and the work in this project was expanded to make the comparative information more representative of what will be required in order to make further inroads towards implementation. Similar to that study, this project team confirmed that the primary materials of interest for pultruded spar cap elements should be thermoset (TS) resins reinforced by carbon fibers, utilizing as high a percentage of TCF as practical to benchmark cost and performance against commercial carbon fibers. To make the closest comparison possible and eliminate specific test article size, resin selection, and equipment/operational nuance effects, the team planned to pultrude sections with 100% commercially available carbon fiber (Panex 35 carbon fiber from Zoltek) as well as samples utilizing high fractions of TCF. The resin system chosen was based on formulations recommended by large wind industry supplier Hexion and consisted of Hexion resin RSL-4597, curing agent CCA-138, and internal mold release additive 117, along with common kaolin filler ASP400P from BASF. As commonly deployed in spar cap configurations, the team had a mold built to pultrude a rectangular spar cap element of 100mm width and 3mm thickness. The extremely limited number of samples produced for the earlier study were produced with a “generic” epoxy utilized for a variety of applications by the pultruder contracted to produce test articles for demonstration purposes. More importantly, those samples were produced at a fiber fraction only slightly over 50%. Based on feedback from our industrial advisory team for that project and strongly recommended by this project team, the consensus is that it is highly desirable to obtain fiber fractions of 65-68% for significant penetration in wind blade spar cap. Although this requirement has yet to be exhaustively confirmed in readily available information, this was established as a project goal and informally decided we needed to exceed 60% fiber fraction to gain serious industry consideration. Previous TCF pultrusion trials have been challenged by the lack of robust TCF packages, resulting in non-uniform tension across and between tows, as well as excess labor and waste for removal of interleaved paper. The non-uniform tension and associated intermingling of tows in textile acrylic fiber tows and associated difficulties created from broken filaments in carbon fiber conversion inhibit the ordered packing necessary to enhance fiber fraction elevation. (These “cross-overs” are not considered undesirable for textile applications and there is some sense that they might be advantageous for those applications). In addition to work that is ongoing at the acrylic fiber manufacturers to improve their formats, The Institute of Advanced Composites Manufacturing Innovation (IACMI) Project 6.12 (report PA16-0349-6.12-01) [2] has developed and demonstrated a more robust packaging and creeling approach that at least partially addresses these issues, thus improving control of the TCF feed into the pultrusion unit. It was hoped that these and other improvements currently being implemented would allow us to achieve fiber fractions at least approaching these fiber fraction targets. During this project, sections utilizing 100% commercially available carbon fiber reinforcement were produced as a baseline, as well as sections reinforced with about 94% TCF and the balance being commercially available fiber for comparison. The most important finding was that similar to results reported in the earlier WETO-funded project and results from tests of TCF reported at IACMI meetings, this work demonstrated that sections pultruded with TCF in an epoxy resin frequently utilized in actual spar cap production had stiffness and compressive strengths largely comparable to similar sections pultruded with a commercially available carbon fiber also frequently utilized in the wind industry. Although the amount of that data is limited, some of the tensile strength results were actually closer than would have been expected based on fiber strength results provided by the TCF and commercial fiber producers. The actual test data are reported and discussed in detail in Section 5. The pultruded sections dominated by TCF reinforcement were approximately 8-10% lower in fiber fraction than for the sections produced using commercial fiber alone, making direct comparison difficult. The COVID-19 project has provided significant insight into the current state-of-the-art with various TCF product forms. The data obtained in this project will guide the planned improvements at the precursor level, especially in attaining uniform tensioning and payout to facilitate enhanced fiber fractions and overall processability of the TCF composites. The project team is providing guidance to stakeholders concerning the attributes, needs, and potential demand for TCF in wind blade spar caps. Results achieved in this project are consistent with findings in the related work cited [1] and support this guidance and the high potential for this product type. TCF precursor-producing partners continue to express interest in enhancing their product forms and the team looks forward to working with these improved materials as they become available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic Properties of Aggregate Coated by Different Types of Waste Plastic: Adhesion and Moisture Resistance of Asphalt-Aggregate Systems

The utilization of acidic aggregates in hot-mix asphalt (HMA) is often inevitable due to the limited supply of locally available aggregates, posing a potential threat of moisture damage to asphalt pavements. In this regard, the use of urban waste plastic to coat the low-quality aggregates is a promising way to improve the moisture resistance. This study fundamentally evaluated the compatibility between asphalt and plastic-coated aggregate by measuring surface energy, and for the first time compared the effects of different types of waste plastic including high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polypropylene (PP). The plastic-coating significantly altered the chemistry of aggregate surface by increasing the nonpolar components and reducing the polar components. Such changes remarkably increased the dry adhesion energy between asphalt and aggregate and enhanced the wettability of aggregate. For the acidic aggregates, the polymeric treatment could decrease the value of wet adhesive, which indicated the debonding tendency in the presence of water was reduced. Finally, the energy ratios of the asphalt-aggregate combinations significantly increased by the surface pretreatment, which proved the effect of waste plastic coating on improving the moisture damage resistance of asphalt mixtures. By comparison, the HDPE coating was the most effective way to enhance the compatibility with asphalt, followed by PP and LDPE coatings. The PVC and PET coatings were investigated as the least effective way. In conclusion, this study cannot only contribute to the potential large-scale utilization of waste plastic but also remove the obstacles of using large quantities of acidic natural aggregate in asphalt pavements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-contact Current-Voltage (I-V) Tracer for Photovoltaics

This report presents a non-contact approach to simultaneously obtain current-voltage (I-V) curves of photovoltaic (PV) substrings and modules in a string without the need of disconnecting the individual modules from the string. There are two types of I-V curve tracers currently available in the marketplace, capacitor-based and electronic load-based. The primary requirement of these conventional I-V tracers is the disconnection of individual modules in the string so the individual modules contacted through the connectors of the individual modules. These contact-tracers have three major limitations in the utility scale power plants: First limitation – Weather and Accuracy: The mass-produced commercial contact-tracers cannot obtain the I-V curves of both string and its modules (as high as 30 modules), almost simultaneously (within about 5 minutes) at, practically, a single irradiance level, a single module temperature, a single spectrum and a single AOI (angle of incidence). This inability of the contact-tracers forces the testing personnel to wait for an extended or multiple sunny (>800 W/m 2 ) duration(s) of a cloudy day. This is a serious limitation as waiting for the sunny conditions or days is a huge practical challenge in almost all locations, except desert locations. Also, since the I-V curves are obtained at different prevailing weather conditions, it becomes critical to translate all the measured I-V curves of 30 modules in the string to a single test condition, for example STC (standard test conditions), so the underperforming modules can be identified. The accuracy of translation equations is heavily influenced by the irradiance level and temperature, spectral and AOI ranges; Second limitation - Safety: The second limitation is related to the high voltage electrical safety of the test personnel during disconnecting and reconnecting of individual modules or cable connectors from the string under daylight conditions and damaging of the original module connectors (especially the field aged connectors) during the disconnecting and reconnecting process; Third limitation – Labor: The third limitation is related to the enormous amount of time and hardship for the test personnel under prevailing (often harsh) protracted field conditions. This project was executed by Arizona State University in collaboration with its industry partner, PV Measurements Inc. (PVM). To mitigate all the three challenges of the state-of-the-art equipment indicated above, we utilized a non-contact I-V (NCIV) tracer approach. In this approach, we utilized an electrostatic voltmeter (ESV) and voltage sensor/probe combination to obtain I-V curves. The ESV units are extensively used in the high voltage industry but not in the PV industry. To obtain the simultaneous I-V curves of the substrings and modules within a string, we utilized multiple commercial ESV-Probe sets. In this approach, we utilized a non-contact voltage sensor (called, Probe) placed on the glass surface of the module (above the last cell of the module). This probe senses the module voltage (with respect to ground) through measured capacitance which is dictated by the surface charges (which in turn is dictated by the module voltage) and transmits the sensed voltage to the voltmeter (called, ESV or NCV, non-contact voltmeter). The current is sensed by a non-contact hall sensor. In a 30-module string, the 30th probe obtains the entire string I-V along with the string I-V obtained by the electronic load. so that the I-V curves of the substrings and modules can be obtained by NCIV without the need of disconnecting the individual modules in the string. The string I-V curves obtained by the electronic load and NCIV can be compared for the accuracy determination. One can use 30 ESV units and 30 Probes to obtain 30 I-V curves of a 30-module string or use just 5 ESV units and 30 Probes in conjunction with 5 six-channel switchboxes (called, 6:1 switchboxes). To reduce the equipment cost, we utilized the 6:1 switchbox approach so the number of ESV units is reduced from 30 to 5. The approaches, achievements and challenges of this project are detailed in this report.

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DOE OSTI2022

Intersections of Disadvantaged Communities and Renewable Energy Potential: Data Set and Analysis to Inform Equitable Investment Prioritization in the United States

Renewable energy development can bolster local economies through job creation, local tax revenues, and reduced energy costs; however, communities most in need of economic development and employment opportunities often see lower levels of renewable energy deployment. We sought to identify areas where disadvantaged community indicators and high generation potential from cost-effective renewable energy opportunities intersect and deployment could lead to economic development and job creation. This presentation will highlight several of our findings. This research and the associated county-level data set are intended to inform national- and state-level energy-related assistance programs, economic development efforts, and infrastructure programs seeking to prioritize investments in disadvantaged communities.

community energy planning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Defining a compact dry cooler design to reduce LCOE contribution in a CSP facility

Concentrating solar power (CSP), when coupled with a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle and sensible heat storage, presents a renewable and clean alternative for utility-scale power generation. However, in order to be competitive in the current and future markets, CSP facilities must limit their levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by minimizing capital costs and reducing operating costs over the lifetime of the plant. Targeting this goal, this study investigates the LCOE impact of the power cycle pre-cooler. This study considers a compact dry cooler with micro-channel technology on the CO 2 side and formed fin geometry on the air side, using directly-coupled centrifugal fans and a transition duct to improve air distribution across the fins as well as protect the fins from contaminants which may cause blockage, soiling, fouling, and damage. In an effort to better understand the dry cooler impact on LCOE, a sensitivity study was conducted using various combinations of end-to-end approach temperatures, air-side pressure drop values, CO 2 -side pressure drop values, fan types, cooler turndown control schemes, cooler module sizes, and design-point ambient temperatures. Furthemore, off-design cycle performance data was calculated for each dry cooler design using NPSS simulation software; cycle performance data were then input to System Advisor Model (SAM) along with the associated capital costs for LCOE prediction of a 100 MW system over a 30 year plant lifetime. Results of this study show the LCOE is most sensitive to air-side performance, followed by heat transfer effectiveness and capital cost. It was found that a power cycle with a mid- to high-performance dry cooler will produce the most competitive power-production costs. Designing at the extreme ends for approach temperature (or effectiveness), design-point ambient temperature, and compactness (footprint) produce higher LCOE values; mid-range values for these parameters balance performance, operating costs, and associated capital cost to optimize LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of a Compact Dry Cooler With an Aluminum Heat Exchanger Core for a Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Is Evaluated for a Concentrating Solar Power Application

Abstract As the supercritical CO2 power cycle develops and the component technologies mature, there is still a need to reduce the associated capital and operating costs to maintain a competitive levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in order to enter the market. When considering concentrating solar power (CSP) coupled with an sCO2 power block and sensible thermal storage, the technology presents a clean source for utility-scale power generation to support baseload or peak-load electrical demand. However, the LCOE of the technology is still considered higher than the competing technologies and should be reduced to better compete in the market; 2030 targets for dispatchable solar plants are 5¢/kWh for baseload CSP and 10¢/kWh for peaker plants, as set by the United States Department of Energy. In response to this need, this study is targeting improvements in the power cycle precooler to reduce power block contribution to LCOE. This study considers a dry cooler, as CSP plants are sensitive to water consumption because many installations are slated for remote or arid locations where solar irradiance is very high, but water is scarce. Furthermore, the power block footprint for an sCO2 system is quite compact, especially as compared to a steam cycle. Therefore, there is interest in installing a more compact dry cooler that is proportional to the reduced footprint sCO2 power block, while conventional dry coolers are an order of magnitude larger. The competing goals of size, performance, and cost were considered in this study to develop a compact dry cooler that can easily be packaged with the power block, significantly reducing the installation and transport cost compared to the current state of the art, while maintaining or improving upon the heat transfer performance and impact on plant LCOE. This paper details the high-level findings of a large dry cooler sensitivity study for design point selection, design of the compact dry cooler, expected year-round performance for the dry cooler and the power cycle, and the predicted LCOE for a 30-year plant life. It was found that an aluminum heat exchanger core can be suitably designed to meet the pressure and temperature requirements for a precooler in an sCO2 recompression Brayton cycle. The dry cooler assembly was found to have improved heat transfer performance, allowing for increased cycle efficiencies and a reduced plant LCOE. When coupled with a centrifugal blower and compact transition duct, the dry cooler assembly was able to reduce the installation footprint by over 50%.

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