Results for “unpredictability” — Page 17

NASA NTRS2015

New Pharmacology Studies on the ISS

It is known that medications degrade over time and that extreme storage conditions will hasten their degradation. This is the basis of the HRP Risk of Ineffective or Toxic Medications Due to Long Term Storage. Gaps include questions about the effects of the spaceflight environment and about the potential for safe use of medications beyond their expiration dates. There are also open questions regarding effects of the spaceflight environment on human physiology and subsequent changes in how medications act on the body; these unanswered questions gave rise to the HRP Concern of Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Medication. Studies designed to address this Risk and Concern are described below.

Wotring, Virginia E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the missions commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Determination↗

NASA NTRS2014

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the mission's commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Multiscale↗

NASA NTRS2014

Environmental Risk Factors and Child Nutritional Status and Survival in a Context of Climate Variability and Change

Much of the population in the developing world resides in rural areas, is dependent on local agriculture for survival, and thus directly subject to increasingly volatile and variable climatic patterns. Poverty limits options for adaptation to unpredictable weather and resultant food insecurity; these concerns are particularly salient in an era of climate change, which threatens to roll back years of development gains. Examining the association between the growing environment and child survival and nutrition is important in this context. Using NASA's satellite remote sensing data with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from four West African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Benin), we assess the association between a climate-related environmental variable (vegetation index - NDVI) and child survival and nutrition. NDVI had a positive association with child survival and nutrition in countries with a wide distribution of NDVI values. NDVI was more likely to be positively associated with wasting rather than stunting. We find that environmental factors can be important for child survival and nutrition outcomes in specific contexts. Additional research is needed to further explore the ways NDVI can be used to inform our understanding of the environment's impact on child survival and nutrition.

Environment↗

NASA NTRS2013

Inflight Performance of Cassini Reaction Wheel Bearing Drag in 1997-2013

As the first spacecraft to achieve orbit at Saturn in 2004, Cassini has collected science data throughout its four-year prime mission (2004-08), and has since been approved for a first and second extended missions through September 2017. Cassini is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft. It uses reaction wheels to achieve high level of spacecraft pointing stability that is needed during imaging operations of several science instruments. The Cassini flight software makes in-flight estimates of reaction wheel bearing drag torque and made them available to the mission operations team. These telemetry data are being trended for the purpose of monitoring the long-term health of the reaction wheel bearings. Anomalous drag torque signatures observed over the past 15 years are described in this paper. One of these anomalous drag conditions is bearing cage instability that appeared (and disappeared) spontaneously and unpredictably. Cage instability is an uncontrolled vibratory motion of the bearing cage that can produce high-impact forces internal to the bearing that will cause intermittent and erratic torque transients. Characteristics of the observed cage instabilities and other drag torque "spikes" are described in this paper. In day-to-day operations, the reaction wheels' rates must be neither too high nor too low. To protect against operating the wheels in any undesirable conditions (such as prolonged low spin rate operations), a ground software tool named Reaction Wheel Bias Optimization Tool (RBOT) was developed for the management of the wheels. Disciplined and long-term use of this ground software has led to significant reduction in the daily consumption rate of the wheels' low spin rate dwell time. Flight experience on the use of this ground software tool as well as other lessons learned on the management of Cassini reaction wheels is given in this paper.

Cassini/Huygens Mission↗

NASA NTRS2010

Adaptive Tunable Laser Spectrometer for Space Applications

An architecture and process for the rapid prototyping and subsequent development of an adaptive tunable laser absorption spectrometer (TLS) are described. Our digital hardware/firmware/software platform is both reconfigurable at design time as well as autonomously adaptive in real-time for both post-integration and post-launch situations. The design expands the range of viable target environments and enhances tunable laser spectrometer performance in extreme and even unpredictable environments. Through rapid prototyping with a commercial RTOS/FPGA platform, we have implemented a fully operational tunable laser spectrometer (using a highly sensitive second harmonic technique). With this prototype, we have demonstrated autonomous real-time adaptivity in the lab with simulated extreme environments.

Flesch, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2009

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Mars dust↗

NASA NTRS2008

Simulating Autonomous Telecommunication Networks for Space Exploration

Currently, most interplanetary telecommunication systems require human intervention for command and control. However, considering the range from near Earth to deep space missions, combined with the increase in the number of nodes and advancements in processing capabilities, the benefits from communication autonomy will be immense. Likewise, greater mission science autonomy brings the need for unscheduled, unpredictable communication and network routing. While the terrestrial Internet protocols are highly developed their suitability for space exploration has been questioned. JPL has developed the Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) tool to help characterize network designs and protocols. The results will allow future mission planners to better understand the trade offs of communication protocols. This paper discusses various issues with interplanetary network and simulation results of interplanetary networking protocols.

Segui, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗

NASA NTRS2015

Exprimental Results of the First Two Stages of an Advanced Transonic Core Compressor Under Isolated and Multi-Stage Conditions.

NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Program calls for investigation of the technology barriers associated with improved fuel efficiency for large gas turbine engines. Under ERA, the highly loaded core compressor technology program attempts to realize the fuel burn reduction goal by increasing overall pressure ratio of the compressor to increase thermal efficiency of the engine. Study engines with overall pressure ratio of 60 to 70 are now being investigated. This means that the high pressure compressor would have to almost double in pressure ratio while keeping a high level of efficiency. NASA and GE teamed to address this challenge by testing the first two stages of an advanced GE compressor designed to meet the requirements of a very high pressure ratio core compressor. Previous test experience of a compressor which included these front two stages indicated a performance deficit relative to design intent. Therefore, the current rig was designed to run in 1-stage and 2-stage configurations in two separate tests to assess whether the bow shock of the second rotor interacting with the upstream stage contributed to the unpredicted performance deficit, or if the culprit was due to interaction of rotor 1 and stator 1. Thus, the goal was to fully understand the stage 1 performance under isolated and multi-stage conditions, and additionally to provide a detailed aerodynamic data set for CFD validation. Full use was made of steady and unsteady measurement methods to understand fluid dynamics loss source mechanisms due to rotor shock interaction and endwall losses. This paper will present the description of the compressor test article and its measured performance and operability, for both the single stage and two stage configurations. We focus the paper on measurements at 97% corrected speed with design intent vane setting angles.

transonic compressors↗

NASA NTRS2015

Measurement of Visual Reaction Times Using Hand-held Mobile Devices

Modern mobile devices provide a convenient platform for collecting research data in the field. But,because the working of these devices is often cloaked behind multiple layers of proprietary system software, it can bedifficult to assess the accuracy of the data they produce, particularly in the case of timing. We have been collecting datain a simple visual reaction time experiment, as part of a fatigue testing protocol known as the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT). In this protocol, subjects run a 5-minute block consisting of a sequence of trials in which a visual stimulus appears after an unpredictable variable delay. The subject is required to tap the screen as soon as possible after the appearance of the stimulus. In order to validate the reaction times reported by our program, we had subjects perform the task while a high-speed video camera recorded both the display screen, and a side view of the finger (observed in a mirror). Simple image-processing methods were applied to determine the frames in which the stimulus appeared and disappeared, and in which the finger made and broke contact with the screen. The results demonstrate a systematic delay between the initial contact by the finger and the detection of the touch by the software, having a value of 80 +- 20 milliseconds.

reaction time↗

NASA NTRS2015

Underestimation of Project Costs

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Cost estimation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Orion GN&C Fault Management System Verification: Scope And Methodology

In order to ensure long-term ability to meet mission goals and to provide for the safety of the public, ground personnel, and any crew members, nearly all spacecraft include a fault management (FM) system. For a manned vehicle such as Orion, the safety of the crew is of paramount importance. The goal of the Orion Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) fault management system is to detect, isolate, and respond to faults before they can result in harm to the human crew or loss of the spacecraft. Verification of fault management/fault protection capability is challenging due to the large number of possible faults in a complex spacecraft, the inherent unpredictability of faults, the complexity of interactions among the various spacecraft components, and the inability to easily quantify human reactions to failure scenarios. The Orion GN&C Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) team has developed a methodology for bounding the scope of FM system verification while ensuring sufficient coverage of the failure space and providing high confidence that the fault management system meets all safety requirements. The methodology utilizes a swarm search algorithm to identify failure cases that can result in catastrophic loss of the crew or the vehicle and rare event sequential Monte Carlo to verify safety and FDIR performance requirements.

Brown, Denise↗

NASA NTRS2016

Latent Hardeners for the Assembly of Epoxy Composites

Large-scale composite structures are commonly joined by secondary bonding of molded-and-cured thermoset components. This approach may result in unpredictable joint strengths. In contrast, assemblies made by co-curing, although limited in size by the mold, result in stable structures, and are certifiable for commercial aviation because of structural continuity through the joints. Multifunctional epoxy resins were prepared that should produce fully-cured subcomponents with uncured joining surfaces, enabling them to be assembled by co-curing in a subsequent out-of-autoclave process. Aromatic diamines were protected by condensation with a ketone or aldehyde to form imines. Properties of the amine-cured epoxy were compared with those of commercially available thermosetting epoxy resins and rheology and thermal analysis were used to demonstrate the efficacy of imine protection. Optimum conditions to reverse the protecting chemistry in the solid state using moisture and acid catalysis were determined. Alternative chemistries were also investigated. For example, chain reaction depolymerization and photoinitiated catalysts would be expected to minimize liberation of volatile organic content upon deprotection and avoid residual reactive species that could damage the resin. Results from the analysis of protected and deprotected resins will be presented.

Palmieri, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2014

Creating a Test-Validated Finite-Element Model of the X-56A Aircraft Structure

Small modeling errors in a finite-element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of the X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression and, therefore, in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of the X-56A aircraft. The ground-vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite-element model of the X-56A aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite-element model of the X-56A aircraft is improved using a model-tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A aircraft have been improved in a single optimization run. Frequency and the cross-orthogonality (mode shape) matrix were the primary focus for improvement, whereas other properties such as c.g. location, total weight, and off-diagonal terms of the mass orthogonality matrix were used as constraints. The end result was an improved structural dynamic finite-element model configuration for the X-56A aircraft. Improved frequencies and mode shapes in this study increased average flutter speeds of the X-56A aircraft by 7.6% compared to the baseline model.

ground vibration test↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

NASA NTRS2016

Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human-Robot Teaming: From Space Robotics to Self-Driving Cars

In this talk, I describe how NASA Ames has been developing and testing robots for space exploration. In our research, we have focused on studying how human-robot teams can increase the performance, reduce the cost, and increase the success of space missions. A key tenet of our work is that humans and robots should support one another in order to compensate for limitations of manual control and autonomy. This principle has broad applicability beyond space exploration. Thus, I will conclude by discussing how we have worked with Nissan to apply our methods to self-driving cars, enabling humans to support autonomous vehicles operating in unpredictable and difficult situations.

robotics↗