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At least 307 records · Page 17

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design, Optimization, and Control of Floating Offshore Wind Farms for Optimal Energy Production (Final report)

The uncertainty and irregularity of ocean waves and the ocean environment is a major factor in the development of commercial scale floating wind turbines as the operation of floating structures in such an environment can lead to irregular and unpredictable loading, fatigue, and ultimately a reduction in the operational life of the turbine system which affects energy production over the lifetime of the turbine. Control solutions that can limit float motions and mitigate stressful events on the structure become essential for extending lifetime and limiting the operational uncertainty of a floating wind turbine. Digital twins are computational replicas of physical systems that operate in parallel with the operation of the physical system. Given advanced knowledge of a systems input, digital twins have the ability to predict the behavior of a system in advance, which can be valuable in the control of that system. In this project, we developed and assessed potential digital twin models developed in house and openly available (OpenFast) for use in the real time control of the six degree of freedom response motions of a floating wind turbine in ocean waves. Coupling these models with near-field real time irregular sea surface (wve) measurement/sensings and prediction models, we used the digital twin to predict how the floating turbine will respond to the incoming waves. Applying this information to a motion control system of the float, one can limit and control float motions to prevent undesirable loading events/large angular motions, thus increasing system life and ultimately contributing to optimizing energy production. Due to the computational intensity of operating a digital twin in real time, we investigated the use of artificial intelligence techniques to speed-up the processes of the digital twin, as well as the wave reconstruction/prediction models. Model tank testing at the University of Rhode Island and University of Maine both validated and demonstrated the developed techniques on simple float geometries and a scale model of the NREL 15 MW reference turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Model Reduction for Steady Hypersonic Aerodynamics via Conservative Manifold Least-Squares Petrov–Galerkin Projection

High-speed aerospace engineering applications rely heavily on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for design and analysis. This reliance on CFD models necessitates performing accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the CFD models, which can be very expensive for hypersonic flows. Additionally, UQ approaches are many-query problems requiring many runs with a wide range of input parameters. One way to enable computationally expensive models to be used in such many-query problems is to employ projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) in lieu of the (high-fidelity) full-order model (FOM). In particular, the least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) ROM (equipped with hyper-reduction) has demonstrated the ability to significantly reduce simulation costs while retaining high levels of accuracy on a range of problems, including subsonic CFD applications. This allows LSPG ROM simulations to replace the FOM simulations in UQ studies, making UQ tractable even for large-scale CFD models. This work presents the first application of LSPG to a hypersonic CFD application, the Hypersonic International Flight Research Experimentation 1 (HIFiRE-1) in a three-dimensional, turbulent Mach 7.1 flow. This paper shows the ability of the ROM to significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining high levels of accuracy in computed quantities of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SIF-based GPP modeling for evergreen forests considering the seasonal variation in maximum photochemical efficiency

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has shown great potential in estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, their quantitative relationship is not invariant, which undermines the reliability of empirical SIF-based GPP estimation at fine spatiotemporal scales, especially under extreme conditions. In this study, we developed a parsimonious mechanistic model for SIF-based GPP estimation in evergreen needle forests (ENF) by employing the Mechanistic Light Response framework and Eco-Evolutionary theory to describe the light and dark reactions during photosynthesis, respectively. Specifically, we found that considering the seasonal variation in a key parameter of the MLR framework, the maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (Φ PSIImax ), can avoid the GPP overestimation in winter and early spring due to the relatively low environmental sensitivity of SIF. Compared to the estimates from other benchmark models, our GPP estimates were closer to the 1: 1 line and had higher accuracy (average R 2 = 0.86, RMSE=1.99 μmol m -2 s -1 ) across sites. Furthermore, the changes in the relationship between SIF and J (refers to the electron transport rate) contribute a lot to the dynamic SIF–GPP relationship in this study, while the J–GPP relationship is less variant when the temperature drops. Further, the seasonal variation in the SIF–J relationship, especially the reduction in its slope at low temperatures, is found largely explained by the Φ PSIImax . These results indicate the importance of the uncertainty caused by the variation in the SIF–J relationship for SIF-based GPP estimation, and the consideration of changes in Φ PSIImax under extreme conditions (such as severe winter in this study) is crucial for the improvement of GPP estimation via SIF.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Efficient Dimensionality Reduction and Surrogate Modeling of High-Dimensional Stress Fields

Tensor datatypes representing field variables like stress, displacement, velocity, etc., have increasingly become a common occurrence in data-driven modeling and analysis of simulations. Numerous methods [such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs)] exist to address the meta-modeling of field data from simulations. As the complexity of the simulation increases, so does the cost of acquisition, leading to limited data scenarios. Modeling of tensor datatypes under limited data scenarios remains a hindrance for engineering applications. Here, in this article, we introduce a direct image-to-image modeling framework of convolutional autoencoders enhanced by information bottleneck loss function to tackle the tensor data types with limited data. The information bottleneck method penalizes the nuisance information in the latent space while maximizing relevant information making it robust for limited data scenarios. The entire neural network framework is further combined with robust hyperparameter optimization. We perform numerical studies to compare the predictive performance of the proposed method with a dimensionality reduction-based surrogate modeling framework on a representative linear elastic ellipsoidal void problem with uniaxial loading. The data structure focuses on the low-data regime (fewer than 100 data points) and includes the parameterized geometry of the ellipsoidal void as the input and the predicted stress field as the output. The results of the numerical studies show that the information bottleneck approach yields improved overall accuracy and more precise prediction of the extremes of the stress field. Additionally, an in-depth analysis is carried out to elucidate the information compression behavior of the proposed framework.

artificial intelligence↗

Distances to Prompt Effects for a Nuclear Device

In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Model reduction for hypersonic aerodynamics via conservative LSPG projection and hyper-reduction

High-speed aerospace engineering applications rely heavily on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for design and analysis due to the expense and difficulty of flight tests and experiments. This reliance on CFD models necessitates performing accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the CFD models. However, it is very computationally expensive to run CFD for hypersonic flows due to the fine grid resolution required to capture the strong shocks and large gradients that are typically present. Furthermore, UQ approaches are “many-query” problems requiring many runs with a wide range of input parameters. One way to enable computationally expensive models to be used in such many-query problems is to employ projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) in lieu of the (high-fidelity) full-order model. In particular, the least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) ROM (equipped with hyper-reduction) has demonstrated the ability to significantly reduce simulation costs while retaining high levels of accuracy on a range of problems including subsonic CFD applications. This allows computationally inexpensive LSPG ROM simulations to replace the full-order model simulations in UQ studies, which makes this many-query task tractable, even for large-scale CFD models. This work presents the first application of LSPG to a hypersonic CFD application. In particular, we present results for LSPG ROMs of the HIFiRE-1 in a three-dimensional, turbulent Mach 7.1 flow, showcasing the ability of the ROM to significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining high levels of accuracy in computed quantities of interest.

Fluid Dynamics↗

Low‐dimensional manifold learning for uncertainty quantification in complex multi‐scale stochastic systems

Broadly speaking, the goals of the project are to develop techniques to use manifold learning to develop reduced‐order and surrogate models for "hyper‐reduction" of very high‐dimensional complex multi‐scale systems. This is being achieved by employing a newly proposed form of manifold projection and learning that leverages recent advancements in computational geometry and data‐driven modeling. In particular, we are applying a manifold projection technique to project the solutions of very high‐dimensional systems onto the so‐called Grassmannmanifold, a Reimannian manifold comprised of orthonormal matrices. We then apply data‐driven machine learning techniques to classify the solutions on the manifold (e.g. clustering techniques) according to their proximity on the manifold and leverage a further nonlinear dimension reduction to organize the structured data on the manifold. Finally, we are developing novel techniques that enable us to directly interpolate the hyper‐reduced data such that we can predict the solution of the complex, high‐ dimensional system without need to call the full expensive computational model. Given their adherence to the underlying structure of the solution of the physical system, it is expected that these approximate solutions will be sufficiently constrained so as to (approximately) adhere to physical principles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A methodology for decay heat characterization in molten salt reactors

Accurate decay heat prediction in molten salt reactors (MSRs) faces dual challenges: complex operational uncertainties and the need for interpretable models compatible with engineering workflows. This work presents a hybrid machine learning and segmented polynomial methodology that addresses both requirements through three key innovations. First, a modular data architecture encodes MSR-specific operational parameters (power density: 1-100 W cm -3 , humidity: 0-0.1 wt %, air ingress: 0-0.1 mol %) with uncertainty-aware temporal discretization spanning 15 orders of magnitude. Second, region-optimized machine learning models achieve 92.3 % root mean square error (RMSE) reduction over conventional polynomials while maintaining physical interpretability through automated piecewise equation generation. Third, dual front-end interfaces accelerate safety analyses — a Jupyter environment enables researchers to explore 10,000+ parameter combinations via interactive widgets, while a Streamlit web application reduces design iteration cycles through production-grade visualization tools. Operational deployment demonstrates prediction times of only a couple hundred milliseconds for 10 4 years decay profiles, enabling real-time optimization of spent fuel container designs.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Microgrid Frequency Stability: A Proactive Scheme Based on Dynamic Predictions

The dynamic nature of microgrids introduces challenges in the context of frequency stability. This work presents a framework where the future state of microgrid frequency is predicted and corrective actions are optimized. Predictions are generated through Bayesian filters leveraging synchronized data acquired via PMUs. Taking a proactive approach makes it possible to optimize corrective actions considering dynamic system conditions. Testing is conducted via Matlab simulations. The performance of the solution presented in this work is compared to traditional load-shedding schemes and to predictive solutions found in literature. The results indicate that the proposed framework outperforms both. Some of the advantages of this framework include a reduction in amount of load dropped during compensation, the use of adaptive parameters which eliminates the need to simulate contingency conditions, and dynamic uncertainty quantification provided the particle filter.

Paramo, Gian↗

Designing Energy-Efficient Quantum Computers Through Prediction and Reduction of Cooling Requirements for Cryogenic Electronics

Quantum computing has been identified as a “wild card” by the International Energy Agency in predicting future global data center energy usage. This is primarily because both uncertainty in the extent to which quantum computing will be adopted, and uncertainty in the power consumption of individual quantum data centers. Unlike the classical counterparts, quantum computers need to be maintained at near absolute zero, requiring energy-intensive cryogenic cooling systems. Therefore, as quantum computers scale up from existing 50 qubit technology demonstrations to the 10,000 to 100,000 qubit systems that will be able to solve complex problems, the energy consumption of both the electronics and the required cooling systems will also increase. To predict this scaling, this work analyzes the energy requirements for both computation and cooling of quantum hardware. We show that the energy requirements for cooling of quantum computers is determined by several computing system parameters, including the number and type of physical qubits, the operating temperature, the packaging efficiency of the system, and the split between circuits operating at cryogenic temperatures and those operating at room temperature. The energy requirements can then be found based on thermal system parameters such as cooling efficiency and cryostat heat transfer. Analysis of these parameters shows that the energy required for cooling is significantly larger than that required for computation, a reversal from energy usage patterns seen in conventional computing. The results and discussions provide a road-map for creating energy efficient quantum computers through the selection of computer architectures and cryogenic system configurations that minimize cooling requirements.

energy efficiency↗

MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED PREDICTION OF TRANSIENT INJECTION MAP IN AUTOMOTIVE INJECTORS WITH UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Accurate prediction of injection profiles is a critical aspect of linking injector operation with engine performance and emissions. However, highly resolved injector simulations can take one to two weeks of wall-clock time, which is incompatible with engine design cycles with desired turnaround times of less than a day. Hence, it is important to reduce the time-to-solution of the internal flow simulations by several orders of magnitude to make it compatible with engine simulations. This work demonstrates a data-driven approach for tackling the computational overhead of injector simulations, whereby the transient injection profiles are emulated for a side-oriented, single-hole diesel injector using a Bayesian machine-learning framework. First, an interpretable Bayesian learning strategy was employed to understand the effect of design parameters on the total void fraction field. Then, autoencoders are utilized for efficient dimensionality reduction of the flowfields. Gaussian process models are finally used to predict the spatiotemporal void fraction field at the injector exit for unknown operating conditions. The Gaussian process models produce principled uncertainty estimates associated with the emulated flowfields, which provide the engine designer with valuable information of where the data-driven predictions can be trusted in the design space. The Bayesian flowfield predictions are compared with the corresponding predictions from a deep neural network, which has been transfer-learned from static needle simulations from a previous work by the authors. The emulation framework can predict the void fraction field at the exit of the orifice within a few seconds, thus achieving a speed-up factor of up to 38 x 10(6) over the traditional simulation-based approach of generating transient injection maps.

machine learning↗

Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

Explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence for correctable modeling in chemical sciences

Data science has primarily focused on big data, but for many physics, chemistry, and engineering applications, data are often small, correlated and, thus, low dimensional, and sourced from both computations and experiments with various levels of noise. Typical statistics and machine learning methods do not work for these cases. Expert knowledge is essential, but a systematic framework for incorporating it into physics-based models under uncertainty is lacking. Here, we develop a mathematical and computational framework for probabilistic artificial intelligence (AI)–based predictive modeling combining data, expert knowledge, multiscale models, and information theory through uncertainty quantification and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). We apply PGMs to chemistry specifically and develop predictive guarantees for PGMs generally. Our proposed framework, combining AI and uncertainty quantification, provides explainable results leading to correctable and, eventually, trustworthy models. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a microkinetic model of the oxygen reduction reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Regional Subsurface Stress Assessment for CO 2 Storage in Candidate Basal Reservoirs within the Plains CO 2 Reduction Partnership Region of North America

Conference presentation at Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference 2024, Houston, Texas, March 11–13, 2024. A screening-level regional evaluation of basement and mechanical overburden stress across the geologically diverse Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership Initiative region was conducted. The main objective of the project was to assess potential basement fault reactivation and better understand technical uncertainties pertaining to CO 2 storage in candidate basal reservoirs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗