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This year we have introduced several modeling improvements, including estimating a parametric model for the mearly-diurnal and nearly-semidiurnal tidal frequency variations of UTI and polar motion, and estimating site velocities.
Data collected by the OSTM could be used to provide a solution for the GNOME DST. GNOME, developed by NOAA?s Office of Response and Restoration Hazardous Materials Response Division, geospatially models oil spill trajectories using wind, current, river flow, and tidal data. Data collected by the OSTM would supply information about ocean currents and wind speeds. This Candidate Solution is in alignment with the Coastal Management, Water Management, Disaster Management, Public Health, Ecological Forecasting, and Homeland Security National Applications and will benefit society by improving the capabilities of emergency responders who evaluate an oil spill?s probable threat.
We present results for the short-term variability of binary trans-Neptunian objects (BTNOs). We performed CCD photometric observations using the 3.58 m Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG), the 1.5 m Sierra Nevada Observatory (OSN) telescope, and the 1.23 m Centro Astronómico Hispano Alemán (CAHA) telescope at Calar Alto Observatory. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of six BTNOs. Our sample contains three classical objects: (174567) 2003 MW12, or Varda, (120347) 2004 SB60, or Salacia, and 2002 VT130; one detached disk object: (229762) 2007 UK126; and two resonant objects: (341520) 2007 TY430 and (38628) 2000 EB173, or Huya. For each target, possible rotational periods and/or photometric amplitudes are reported. We also derived some physical properties from their light curves, such as density, primary and secondary sizes, and albedo. We compiled and analyzed a vast light curve database for TNOs including centaurs to determine the light-curve amplitude and spin frequency distributions for the binary and non-binary populations. The mean rotational periods, from the Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 8.63 plus or minus 0.52 hours for the entire sample, 8.37 plus or minus 0.58 hours for the sample without the binary population, and 10.11 plus or minus 1.19 hours for the binary population alone. Because the centaurs are collisionally more evolved, their rotational periods might not be so primordial. We computed a mean rotational period, from the Maxwellian fit, of 8.86 plus or minus 0.58 hours for the sample without the centaur population, and of 8.64 plus or minus 0.67 hours considering a sample without the binary and the centaur populations. According to this analysis, regular TNOs spin faster than binaries, which is compatible with the tidal interaction of the binaries. Finally, we examined possible formation models for several systems studied in this work and by our team in previous papers.
Enceladus possesses a subsurface ocean beneath a conductive ice shell. Based on shell thickness models, the estimated total conductive heat loss from Enceladus is 25–40 GW; the measured heat output from the South Polar Terrain (SPT) is 4–19 GW. The present-day SPT heat flux is of order 100 mWm -21 −, comparable to estimated paleo-heat fluxes for other regions of Enceladus. These regions have nominal ages of about 2 Ga, but the estimates are uncertain because the impactor flux in the Saturnian system may not resemble that elsewhere. Enceladus’s measured rate of orbital expansion implies a low dissipation factor Q p for Saturn, with Q p ≈3×10 -3 (neglecting the role of Dione). This value implies that Enceladus’s present-day equilibrium tidal heat production (roughly 50 GW, but with large uncertainties) is in approximate balance with its heat loss. If Q p is constant, Enceladus cannot be older than 1.5 Gyr (because otherwise it would have migrated more than is permissible). However, Saturn’s dissipation may be better described by the “resonance-locking” theory, in which case Enceladus’s orbit may have only evolved outwards by about 35% over the age of the Solar System. In the constant-Q p scenario, any ancient tidal heating events would have been too energetic to be consistent with the observations. Because resonance-locking makes capture into earlier mean-motion orbital resonances less likely, the inferred ancient heating episodes probably took place when the current orbital resonance was already established. In the resonance-locking scenario, tidal heating did not change significantly over time, allowing for a long-lived ocean and a relatively stable ice shell. If so, Enceladus is an attractive target for future exploration from a habitability standpoint.
Convection in the plasma sheet is studied using two new two-dimensional, force-balanced magnetospheres that satisfy pV exp 5/3 = constant in the inner and middle plasma sheet. It is confirmed that there exists a substantial set of steady state adiabatic solutions. Like a previously obtained steady state solution, each of these models exhibit a broad minimum in equatorial magnetic field strength B(ze) tailward of the inner edge region between 10 and 20 R(E), but they possess higher values of flux tube content pV exp 5/3 and thus have more stretched tidal configurations and smaller minimum values of B(ze) than those in the original model. A steady state magnetic field model in which B(ze)/B(lobe) at 36 R(E) geocentric distance is close to the observed value has been constructed. The results indicate that the B(ze) minimum tends to form within the Alfven layers. The broader the Alfven layers, the less pronounced the minimum.
The results are reported of numerical simulations of encounters between disk galaxies, each modeled with a central bulge, an exponential disk, and a spheroidal dark-matter halo. It is found that dwarf systems form in material drawn out during the encounter; these objects can capture large amounts of moderately enriched gas but retain little dark matter from their parents' haloes. They should therefore have lower mass-to-light ratios than galaxies formed directly by the collapse of primordial matter.
The Chandler wobble of the earth's rotation has a period near 14 months and sets up the 0.5 cm amplitude pole tide in the deep oceans, However, the pole tide is anomalously large in the North Sea, where the amplitude increases sharply up to 3 cm along the continental coast. It is shown here that the sea levels are well correlated with winds at the pole tide frequency. The Princeton Ocean Model is used to investigate the response of the North Sea to wind forcing. The barotropic numerical ocean model depicts realistic coastlines and bathymetry at 5 ft x 5 ft resolution, with 97 x 73 grid points. The monthly mean wind fields for the 40-year period (1958-1997) from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis were used to force the model. The winds were converted to stress with a neutral drag coefficient that varied linearly with windspeed (instead of using the NCEP windstress). A 5-day simulation was made for each month until the resulting flow regime came into equilibrium, and model water levels at various station locations were saved for comparison with tidal-gauge observed sea levels from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). The comparison is made for 10 North Sea stations with high quality tide gauge data. We find: (1) good agreement in annual and semi-annual phases and in the trend of amplitude w.r.t. latitude; (2) more importantly for this study, the model-predicted and observed non-seasonal sea level variations show a very significant temporal correlation as well as spectral coherence. However, a large amplitude difference exists between the two sets -- the overall amplitude variability of the observed is generally a factor of 2-3 larger than the model prediction (this same phenomenon has been reported in ocean circulation studies, although the cause is not yet clear.) Our results indicate that the wind forcing is the main cause of the observed large pole tide in the North Sea.
A method of analyzing Met Rocket wind data is described. Modern tidal theory and specialized analytical techniques were used to resolve specific tidal modes and prevailing components in observed wind data. A representation of the wind which is continuous in both space and time was formulated. Such a representation allows direct comparison with theory, allows the derivation of other quantities such as temperature and pressure which in turn may be compared with observed values, and allows the formation of a wind model which extends over a broader range of space and time. Significant diurnal tidal modes with wavelengths of 10 and 7 km were present in the data and were resolved by the analytical technique.
We compute encounters of a realistic white dwarf model with a massive black hole in the regime where relativistic effects are important, using a three-dimensional, finite-difference, Eulerian, piecewise parabolic method (PPM) hydrodynamical code. Both disruptive and nondisruptive encounters are considered. We identify and discuss relativistic effects important for the problem: relativistic shift of the pericenter distance, time delay, relativistic precession, and the tensorial structure of the tidal forces. In the nondisruptive case, stripping of matter takes place. In the surface layers of the surviving core, complicated hydrodynamical phenomena are revealed. In both disruptive and nondispruptive encounters, material flows out in the form of two thin, S-shaped, supersonic jets. Our results provide realistic initial conditions for the subsequent investigation of the dynamics of the debris in the field of the black hole. We evaluate the critical conditions for complete disruption of the white dwarf, and compare our results with the corresponding results for nonrelativistic encounters.
The use of remote sensing techniques to determine the properties of coastal and estuarine fronts, which represent regions of discontinuities and high gradients in ocean physical parameters such as velocity and density, and to assess the influence of such fronts on oil pollutants is discussed. Results of an aircraft and boat verification study of an oil drift and spread model in Delaware Bay are indicated which illustrate the tendency of oil slicks to be attracted to frontal regions, where a denser fluid underlies a lighter fluid giving rise to an inclined interface with convergence zones. Landsat imagery of the bay acquired in order to incorporate frontal information into the interactive computer model is then presented which allows the locations of coastal fronts to be charted throughout a tidal cycle. It is noted that satellite observations of flood-associated fronts on the New Jersey side of the bay and ebb-associated fronts on the Delaware side agree with boat measurements and model predictions, and that the remote tracking of fronts by aircraft and satellites will aid in oil slick clean-up operations.
The rotational response of Earth to long-period tidal forces, embodied in a 'zonal response function,' can be expected to vary with frequency because of variable contributions by the oceans, mantle, and core. The zonal response function has been estimated from 9 years of International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) universal time (UT1) data and compared with theoretical predictions, using a spherical harmonic tide model to compute the oceans' dynamic response, at semiannual, monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunisolar tidal frequencies. Different amounts of mantle anelasticity have been considered for both the oceanic and soild earth responses; predictions have been made assuming axial core-mantle coupling which is either complete or absent. Additionally, an extensive recalibration of the ocean model's frictional parameters was performed using constraints derived in part from Space92 polar motion data; zonal response function predictions have also been made employing this recalibrated ocean tide model. Our results indicate that any amount of core coupling can be ruled out at a fortnightly period and probably at a 9-day period, but not at a monthly period. Our results also suggest that the mantle responds purely elastically at a 9-day period but may behave increasingly anelastically at longer periods. A simple dispersive rule is postulated for periods ranging up to the 14-month Chandler wobble period.
The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT, aircraft, ships, and air-dropped current drogues were deployed to determine current circulation and to track oil slick movement on four different dates in Delaware Bay. Results were used to verify a predictive model for oil slick movement and dispersion. The model predicts the behavior of oil slicks given their size, location, tidal stage (current), weather (wind), and nature of crude. Both LANDSAT satellites provided valuable data on gross circulation patterns and convergent coastal fronts which by capturing oil slicks significantly influence their movement and dispersion.
The long- and short-term variability of the 4.8-s pulsation and the 2.1-day orbital periods of Centaurus X-3 are studied. The pulsation period decreases over 4 yr with a fractional change of -0.00028 per yr, but with rms fluctuations of 0.0002 s. In August-September 1972, a continuous transition from speedup to slowdown was observed. The orbital period also decreases over 4 yr with decrease of approximately 8 millionths per yr, and with significant fluctuations of the order of 0.00001 day over months. The orbital eccentricity is found to be about 0.0008. The pulsation-period variability is found to be consistent with a near balance between the Alfven and corotation radii in an accretion-disk model. The orbital-period variability is interpreted in terms of tidal circularization and possible mass transfer and loss.
Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.
During the MAP/WINE campaign in winter 1983 to 1984 several instrumental techniques, such as meteorological rockets, sounding rockets, MST radar and incoherent scatter radar, were applied to measure wind velocities in the middle atmosphere. Profiles of mean, tidal and fluctuating wind velocities were obtained up to 90 to 100 km altitude. These are compared with profiles from models, measurements at other locations and at other times as well as satellite derived data. The results are discussed in terms of ageostropic winds, planetary waves, tidal modes and the possibility of a saturated gravity wave spectrum in the mesosphere.
This is the second in a series of papers presenting the results of fully general relativistic simulations of stellar tidal disruptions in which the stars' initial states are realistic main-sequence models. In the first paper, we gave an overview of this program and discussed the principal observational implications of our work. Here we describe our calculational method, which includes a new method for calculating fully relativistic stellar self-gravity, and provide details about the outcomes of full disruptions, focusing on the stellar mass dependence of the outcomes for a black hole of mass 106 M(⊙). We consider eight different stellar masses, from 0.15 M(⊙) to 10 M(⊙). We find that, relative to the traditional order-of-magnitude estimate r t, the physical tidal radius of low-mass stars (M(*) ≲ 0.7 M(⊙)) is larger by tens of percent, while for high-mass stars (M(*) ≲ 1 M(⊙)) it is smaller by a factor of 2–2.5. The traditional estimate of the range of energies found in the debris is ≈1.4× too large for low-mass stars, but is a factor of ~2 too small for high-mass stars; in addition, the energy distribution for high-mass stars has significant wings. For all stars undergoing tidal encounters, we find that mass loss continues for many stellar vibration times because the black hole's tidal gravity competes with the instantaneous stellar gravity at the star's surface until the star has reached a distance from the black hole ~O(10)r(t).
Voyager I radio occultation data is employed to develop a qualitative model of an ethane ocean on Titan. It is suggested that the ocean contains 25 percent CH4 and that the ocean is in dynamic equilibrium with an N2 atmosphere. Previous models of a CH4 ocean are discounted due to photolysis rates of CH4 gas. Tidal damping of Titan's orbital eccentricity is taken as evidence for an ocean layer approximately 1 km deep, with the ocean floor being covered with a solid C2H2 layer 100 to 200 m thick. The photolytic process disrupting the CH4, if the estimates of the oceanic content of CH4 are correct, could continue for at least one billion years. Verification of the model is dependent on detecting CH4 clouds in the lower atmosphere, finding C2H6 saturation in the lower troposphere, or obtaining evidence of a global ocean.
The relationship between the formation of sporadic layers of metallic ion and the dumping of these ions into the upper mesosphere is discussed in terms of the tidal wind, classical (i.e., windshear) and other more complex, perhaps highly nonlinear layer formation mechanisms, and a possible circulation mechanism for these ions. Optical, incoherent scatter radar, rocket, and satellite derived evidence for various layer formation mechanisms and for the metallic ion circulation system is reviewed. The results of simple one dimensional numerical model calculations of sporadic E and intermediate layer formation are presented along with suggestions for more advanced models of intense or blanketing sporadic E. The flux of metallic ions dumped by the tidal wind system into the mesosphere is estimated and compared with estimates of total particle flux of meteoric origin. Possible effects of the metallic ion flux and of meteoric dust on D region ion chemistry are discussed.