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DOE OSTI2023

Transient Physical Modelling for the Coupling of a High Temperature Gas Reactor with Thermal Energy Storage

Improving the flexibility of nuclear reactors to meet fluctuating demand on grids with high renewable energy generation penetration is key to improving reactor economics. Economic optimization using the code HERON gives maximum profit of coupling high temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) to thermal energy storage (TES) systems in the configuration shown in Figure 1 when following the demand in Figure 3. We look to model the physics of operation for a HTGR-TES using the HYBRID library in the code Modelica.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward efficient elastocaloric systems: Predicting material thermal properties with high fidelity

A critical need to accurately model thermal behaviors of materials that exhibit strong elastocaloric effects, including predicting the effects themselves at varying stresses and temperatures, has been addressed using a simple and versatile physics-based approach. The key factor leading to the high precision is approximating the underlying elastic phase transition as a smooth modification of lattice entropy between coexisting phases. Once the phase transformation entropy is modeled to match experimentally measured strain as a function of temperature and applied stress, estimating the heat capacity, entropy, and isothermal entropy and adiabatic temperature changes in temperature-stress coordinates becomes straightforward. This approach provides insight into how thermal properties of elastocaloric materials vary through the transition based on strain measurements that are simple to perform and interpret. In addition to aiding in the rapid evaluation of new and existing elastocaloric materials, this advance is expected to prove invaluable for accurate heat transfer modeling aimed at designing efficient regenerative elastocaloric cooling devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Decoherence of Superradiance in Lead Halide Perovskite Nanocrystal Superlattices

Recent experiments by Rainò et al. have documented cooperative emission from CsPbBr 3 nanocrystal superlattices, exhibiting the hallmarks of low-temperature superradiance. In particular, the optical response is coherent and the radiative decay rate is increased by a factor of 3, relative to that of individual nanocrystals. However, the increase is 6 orders of magnitude smaller than what is theoretically expected from the superradiance of large assemblies, consisting of 10 6 –10 8 interacting nanocrystals. In this report we develop a theoretical model of superradiance for such systems and show that thermal decoherence is largely responsible for the drastic reduction of the radiative decay rate in nanocrystal superlattices. Our theoretical approach explains the experimental results, provides insight into the design of small nanocrystal superlattices, and shows a 4 orders of magnitude enhancement in superradiant response. These quantitative predictions pave the path toward observing superradiance at higher temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic 2D Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) model for enhanced computational efficiency

Progressing toward a future increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources, the development of effective, durable energy storage solutions becomes essential to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) is a long-duration thermal energy storage technology that captures excess heat generated from renewable energy sources and stores it underground for later use, enabling the efficient utilization of sustainable energy. This approach is particularly valuable in district energy networks when integrated with Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) to provide stable heating and cooling. However, traditional three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of BTES systems demand extensive computational resources, limiting their practicality for real-time and large-scale applications. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) modeling approach that reduces computational costs while maintaining high accuracy. By employing a radial ring-based discretization method, the model simulates heat injection, retention, and retrieval dynamics over seasonal cycles. A new thermal-mass weighted-average temperature parameter is introduced to evaluate the performance of BTES systems. Model validation against FEFLOW simulations demonstrates a 17-fold improvement in computational speed compared to traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models while achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2 % during charging and 4 % during discharging. Additionally, a trade-off analysis between computational efficiency and accuracy is conducted, ensuring the model's applicability for real-world scenarios. The findings of this research contribute to the development of computationally efficient BTES models, facilitating better optimization, control, and integration into renewable energy systems. This work provides a foundation for further studies in techno-economic analysis, multi-year performance evaluation, and real-time operational strategies for BTES applications, supporting a more sustainable energy future.

2D modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phonon softening near topological phase transitions

Topological phase transitions occur when the electronic bands change their topological properties, typically featuring the closing of the band gap. While the influence of topological phase transitions on electronic and optical properties has been extensively studied, its implication on phononic properties and thermal transport remains unexplored. In this paper, we use first-principles simulations to show that certain phonon modes are significantly softened near topological phase transitions, leading to increased phonon-phonon scattering and reduced lattice thermal conductivity. We demonstrate this effect using two model systems: pressure induced topological phase transition in ZrTe 5 and chemical composition induced topological phase transition in Hg 1-x Cd x Te. We attribute the phonon softening to emergent Kohn anomalies associated with the closing of the band gap. Our paper reveals the strong connection between electronic band structures and lattice instabilities, and opens up a potential direction towards controlling heat conduction in solids.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. Using GHEDesigner, a lookup table was created to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on agent energy bills. This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of different costing and pricing future scenarios. While the code is still under development and nationwide simulations are ongoing, initial results for two states are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts and considering multiple costing scenarios.

ambient temperature loop↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

World Record Demonstration of > 30% Thermophotovoltaic Conversion Efficiency

Thermophotovoltaic (TPV) devices are solid-state heat engines that convert thermal radiation into electricity using semiconductor diodes, and have applications in energy storage, primary power conversion, and waste heat recovery. Higher temperature emitters and wider band gap photovoltaics (PVs) generally afford higher TPV efficiencies. High temperature emitters are accessible in thermal energy storage applications. We have demonstrated a world record 31% +/- 2% TPV conversion efficiency with a 0.9 cm2 GaAs-based PV device under a 2430 °C thermal emitter, producing an electrical output power of 2.23 W. Critical to the result was the cell’s high reflectance of photon energies below the device band gap. Unlike solar PV, for which sub-band gap (SBG) light is lost, a TPV cell can reflect and recycle SBG light to the thermal emitter. The demonstration was made on a custom-built measurement platform in which a ~100 cm2 graphite thermal emitter was heated under vacuum up to 2430 °C. The TPV efficiency was evaluated by comparing the measured electrical output power of the TPV with the calorimetrically measured total net power incident on the cell. The measured TPV efficiency as a function of thermal emitter temperature was corroborated by our full system modeling predictions. As far as the authors are aware, this is the highest TPV conversion efficiency ever measured, and device improvements should yield > 40% efficiency in the near future.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Suppressing thermal transport in nonporous polymer hybrids by limiting thermally accessible vibrational modes

Achieving low thermal conductivity in nonporous polymer materials without compromising mechanical integrity remains a longstanding challenge. Conventional strategies, such as introducing porosity, are inherently limited in dense systems. Here, in this study, we demonstrate that thermal transport in polymer–organic filler hybrids is closely associated with the engineered availability of thermally accessible vibrational modes, rather than individual interfacial resistance or porosity. Using PU/organic filler hybrids as a model system, we show that incorporating rigid organic motifs shifts the vibrational density of states toward higher frequencies, where vibrational modes are weakly thermally populated at ambient conditions. This limits the number of heat-carrying channels, leading to suppressed thermal conductivity despite negligible individual interfacial resistance (∼10 −9 m 2 K W −1 ). These findings provide initial evidence that vibrational mode engineering may offer a promising molecular-level route for reducing thermal conductivity in dense polymer–organic hybrid systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Thermal Modeling of Spent Nuclear Fuel Casks

Uncertainty is a key metric in computational modeling that must be evaluated for results to have wide ranging applicability. A well characterized uncertainty range is ideal with clear error bars on results that can be presented to stakeholders. In the field of spent fuel cask modeling, this ideal has been historically difficult to achieve in practice because of the computationally intensive nature of the models used and the difficulty assigning reasonable uncertainties to quantities in as-built systems. The work in this report has been conducted to evaluate the overall state of uncertainty and sensitivity in spent fuel cask models and develop methodologies for evaluating these uncertainties. These methodologies must be practical for engineering applications. They should not require excessive computational resources or calendar time to achieve results. In engineering, the model must be on a scale such that it can be changed and adapted throughout a project as new information is discovered and project goals evolve. This report covers three major modeling task areas that provide an overview of the types of sensitivity and uncertainty present in a spent fuel storage and transportation system. Section 3 discusses sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the effective thermal conductivity model for the fuel region and applies these results to a single assembly model. Section 4 shows sensitivity analysis of a full cask model in the TN-32B and Section 5 demonstrates the overall uncertainty workflow using Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays – Spent Fuel Storage and STAR-CCM+ developed from the sensitivity work in the preceding sections.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phenomenology of the Prethermal Many-Body Localized Regime

The dynamical phase diagram of interacting disordered systems has seen substantial revision over the past few years. Theory must now account for a large prethermal many-body localized regime in which thermalization is extremely slow, but not completely arrested. We derive a quantitative description of these dynamics in short-ranged one-dimensional systems using a model of successive many-body resonances. Here, the model explains the decay timescale of mean autocorrelators, the functional form of the decay—a stretched exponential—and relates the value of the stretch exponent to the broad distribution of resonance timescales. The Jacobi method of matrix diagonalization provides numerical access to this distribution, as well as a conceptual framework for our analysis. The resonance model correctly predicts the stretch exponents for several models in the literature. Successive resonances may also underlie slow thermalization in strongly disordered systems in higher dimensions, or with long-range interactions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Heat pump water heater enhanced with phase change materials thermal energy storage: Modeling study

A promising solution to improve the first hour rating (FHR) of a heat pump water heater (HPWH) involves employing a secondary tank which contains phase change material (PCM) capsules. To better understand the influence of PCM thermal storage on the HPWH operational performance, a dynamic model was developed to simulate and analyze the behavior of a newly developed HPWH technology that incorporates PCM storage into a standard HPWH to optimize key parameters such as the uniform energy factor and FHR. Mathematical models of several key components of the proposed HPWH-PCM integrated thermal energy storage (TES) system, e.g., water heater tank, PCM TES tank, evaporator, compressor, and expansion valve, have been elaborated. Also, a model-based control co-simulation platform was developed to integrate a embed PCM storage HPWH dynamic model with a control model for better supporting control design, analysis, verification, and validation. The model accuracy has been validated through comparing simulation results with lab test results, with a mean average percentage error of <5.5% for most of the selected performance variables. In addition, using the developed co-simulation platform, the demand response control strategy was studied to evaluate the load flexibility of the combined HPWH-PCM storage system by shifting system power usage to outside of the 3.5 h peak load period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance analysis of integrated Nuclear-Solar Energy system sharing same molten salt thermal energy storage

Advanced nuclear reactors may be deployed with integrated thermal energy storage to improve flexibility and maximize revenue. This presents opportunities for thermal integration with concentrating solar power (CSP) to generate component synergies and/or improve performance. Here in this study, a computational model is developed for an integrated nuclear and CSP system that both share the same molten salt thermal energy storage (TES). Optimized dispatch schedules are developed subject to various market conditions, and the ratio of the nuclear to CSP thermal output is also varied. Performance of the combined system is compared to separate nuclear and solar plants, to determine if there is an overall benefit that can be derived from sharing the TES. Given sufficient volatility in electricity prices (e.g., under CAISO market conditions), synergies of up to 8% in net revenue are observed as a result of sharing the same TES, primarily due to improved revenue from enabling operation of the turbine closer to its design point, as well as being able to better take advantage of higher electricity prices. The synergy benefits are largest when the nuclear and solar plants have similar thermal output. However, when prices are less volatile the opposite behavior can be observed and it can be preferable to operate the nuclear plant as a baseload generator.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of thermal and kinetic processes in non-equilibrium plasma ignition applied to a lean combustion engine

In recent years novel ignition systems have been developed to enable stable and efficient engine operations with lean mixtures. Among them, radio-frequency corona ignition systems create discharges that involve a much wider region compared to traditional spark, and produce non equilibrium plasma with high levels of active radicals and excited species. These devices considerably increase the early flame growth speed and extend stable operating limits. With the aim of expanding the knowledge on high efficiency lean-burn SI engines, this paper investigates and compares the combustion development generated by spark and corona ignitions through computational fluid dynamics, within the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes framework for turbulence modeling. In order to simultaneously take thermal and chemical effects into account, the Perfectly Stirred Reactor combustion model is used. Experimental data are also collected for validation in an optical access engine, for different mixture levels, from stoichiometric to very lean. Furthermore, the faster burn rate generated by the corona system in the initial stage of the combustion is well predicted by the simulations, in all the relative air-fuel ratio conditions. Remarkably, as the mixture becomes lean, simulations are able to capture the non-linear transition from fast to slow kernel growth, before a self-sustainable flame propagation is established. This correlates very well with the measured engine cyclic variability and the corresponding steep change in the duration of the flame kernel formation. Ultimately, this study highlights the important role of the atomic oxygen, as active radical, in promoting and enhancing the combustion initiated by a corona discharge, in addition to the volumetric ignition effect. By contrast, the validated simulations allow to explain that the high-temperature thermal plasma generated in a traditional spark discharge is insensitive to kinetic aspects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

As integral components of any power plant, transformers supply the generated electricity to the grid. However, a transformer’s cellulose-based paper insulation and the mineral oil in which it is immersed break down over time under standard operating conditions—or more rapidly due to potential faults within the system. As the transformer’s mineral oil breaks down, gases are released that can be measured and monitored. This technical brief exhibits a collection of diagnostic and prognostic techniques that utilities can adopt in lieu of labor-intensive periodic preventive maintenance routines. Furthermore, prognostic models have been incorporated using the latest version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard (IEEE, 2019) for dissolved gas analysis (DGA), thus expanding it to include estimation of the time to maintenance. Overall, four different methodologies are explained, each of which aids in determining a transformer’s state of health. These methodologies include the Chendong model, the IEEE thermal life consumption model (IEEE, 2012), a diagnostic model for DGA, and a prognostic model for DGA that uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. An additional improvement for estimating missing system parameters by using monitoring data (i.e., a tool for parameter estimation utilizing Powell’s method) is presented, enabling the IEEE thermal life consumption model to benefit not only the collaborating power plant, but also the power industry at large.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗