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At least 307 records · Page 17

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DOE OSTI2026

Significant Rural Contributions to Severe Coastal Urban Flooding Through Flow Connectivity

Coastal cities are increasingly threatened by hurricane-induced compound flooding. However, the relative contributions of rainfall-surge interactions and other flood drivers, such as runoff from surrounding rural and local impervious areas, in shaping urban flooding remain unclear. Here, we use a multi-scale Earth system modeling framework to disentangle the contributions of diverse flooding drivers. The results show that urban flooding is primarily affected by topographic factors (low elevation, flat slopes, and localized flow constrictions), rather than increased runoff from their impervious surfaces. Importantly, runoff from rural areas contributes more to severely flooded urban areas with inundation depth exceeding 1.7 m than local runoff. Although rainfall–surge interactions and sea-level rise exacerbate inundation along the coastline, over 90% of the compounding effects are absorbed by wetlands. By resolving flooding processes across scales and components, this study emphasizes the role of runoff from surrounding rural areas in shaping zones of severe urban flooding.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures

Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France’s ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-based hull geometry optimisation of a point-absorber wave energy converter with power take-off structural reliability objectives

Recent studies have focused on optimising wave energy converter (WEC) designs, maximising their power performance and techno-economic feasibility. Reliability has yet to be fully considered in these formulations, despite its impact on cost and performance. In this study, this gap is addressed by developing a reliability-based design optimisation framework for WEC hull geometries to explore the trade-off between power performance and power take-off (PTO) system damage equivalent loading (DEL). Optimised hull geometries for two sites are considered (from the centre of the North Sea and off the west coast of Norway), and two directions of motions (heave and surge). Results indicate that site characteristics affect the potential power production and DEL for an optimal WEC design. These are also affected by the direction of motion for power extraction, which also significantly changes optimal hull shape characteristics. Optimal surging WEC designs have edges facing oncoming wave directions, while heaving WECs have pointed bottoms, both to streamline movement. Larger, more convex WECs result in greater power production and DEL, while smaller, more concave WECs result in lesser power production and DEL. These findings underline the importance of considering WEC hull geometry in early design processes to optimise cost, power production, and reliability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

OC6 Phase I: Investigating the underprediction of low-frequency hydrodynamic loads and responses of a floating wind turbine

Phase I of the OC6 project is focused on examining why offshore wind design tools underpredict the response (loads/motion) of the OC5-DeepCwind semisubmersible at its surge and pitch natural frequencies. Previous investigations showed that the underprediction was primarily related to nonlinear hydrodynamic loading, so two new validation campaigns were performed to separately examine the different hydrodynamic load components. In this paper, we validate a variety of tools against this new test data, focusing on the ability to accurately model the low-frequency loads on a semisubmersible floater when held fixed under wave excitation and when forced to oscillate in the surge direction. However, it is observed that models providing better load predictions in these two scenarios do not necessarily produce a more accurate motion response in a moored configuration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metal Oxide Varistor (MOV) Lifetime Estimation with Impulse-Based Testing in PV Inverter Systems

Surges caused by lightning strikes could damage electrical components in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Metal oxide varistors (MOVs) are commonly used to protect PV systems from lightning strikes. This paper proposes a holistic impulse-based MOV lifetime estimation framework. The impacts of peak current and fault duration induced by lightning events are considered in the MOV lifetime estimation framework. Moreover, the impact of different parameter combinations on MOV lifetime estimation is analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed work is validated in a PV inverter test system developed in MATLAB/Simulink.

lifetime estimation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Timing in the Design Process on Students’ Application of Design for Additive Manufacturing Heuristics

The goal of this work is to study the way student designers use design for additive manufacturing (DfAM) rules or heuristics. It can be challenging for novice designers to create successful designs for additive manufacturing (AM), due to its recent surge in popularity and lack of formal education or training. A study was carried out to investigate the way novices apply DfAM heuristics when they receive them at different points in the design process. A design problem was presented to students, and three different groups of student participants were given a lecture on DfAM heuristics at three different points in the design process: before the initial design, between the initial design and redesign, and after the redesign. The novelty and quality of each of the resulting designs were evaluated. Results indicate that although the DfAM heuristics lecture had no impact on the overall quality of the designs generated, participants who were given the heuristics lecture after the initial design session produced designs that were better-suited for 3D printing in the second phase of the design activity. However, receiving this additional information appears to prevent students from creatively iterating upon their initial designs, as participants who received heuristic information between the design sessions experienced a decrease in novelty between the two sessions. Additionally, receiving the heuristics lecture increased all students’ perceptions of their ability to perform DfAM-related tasks. Furthermore, these results validate the practicality of design heuristics in lecture form as AM training tools while also emphasizing the importance of iteration in the design process.

computer-aided design↗

DOE OSTI2020

Control of hybrid boosting in highly diluted internal combustion engines

A novel hybrid system enabling both flexible supercharging and limited torque assist is studied to mitigate transient response challenges of a turbocharged spark ignition engine equipped with low pressure exhaust gas recirculation. The hybrid system, called a power split supercharger (SC), is configured with a planetary gear set that splits the supercharging power between a small low-voltage electric motor and the engine crankshaft. The air path controller relies on the coordination of four actuators on the engine side and three low-level actuators on the hybrid boosting device. A decentralized control scheme is used in this work, in which the master–slave structure of the boost pressure controller decreases the turbo-lag associated with exhaust gas recirculation, while minimizing the SC operation for fuel economy. A vector reference governor is used to prevent compressor surge during engine tip-outs. In addition, the desired intake manifold pressure is modified to provide time for evacuating the exhaust gas recirculation and avoiding misfires when transitioning to low load, while the hybrid capability of the power split SC is used to recuperate the unwanted generated power. All controllers are validated on both a mean value engine model and a high-fidelity engine model. Practical challenges of implementing the vector reference governor to the highly nonlinear engine air path with pressure pulsations originating from the engine reciprocation are discussed and some solutions are proposed.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Load Mitigating Feedback Control of WECs

This report outlines the development of load-mitigating feedback control for wave energy converters. A simple, self-tuning multi-objective controller is demonstrated in simulation for a 3-DOF (surge, heave, pitch) point absorber. In previous work, the proposed control architecture has been shown to be effective in experiment for a variety of device archetypes for the single objective of the maximization of electrical power capture: here this architecture is extended to reduce device loading as well. In particular, PTO actuation forces and the minimization of fatigue damage (determined from the sum of wave-exerted and PTO forces) are considered as additional objectives for the self-tuning controller. This controller is demonstrated for two similar, but distinct systems: one described by the identified linear models from physical testing of the WaveBot device, and another based upon a WEC-Sim simulation that expands upon boundary element method data from the WaveBot device. In both cases, because the power surface is consistently fairly flat in the vicinity of control parameters that maximize power capture in contrasting sea-states, it is found to be generally possible to mitigate either fatigue damage or PTO load. However, PTO load is found to conflict with fatigue damage in some sea-states, limiting the efficacy of control objectives that attempt to mitigate both simultaneously. Additionally, coupling between the surge and pitch DOFs also limits the extent to which fatigue damage can be mitigated for both DOFs in some sea-states. Because control objectives can be considered a function of the sea-state (e.g., load mitigation may not be a concern until the sea is sufficiently large) a simple transition strategy is proposed and demonstrated. This transition strategy is found to be effective with some caveats: firstly, it cannot circumvent the aforementioned objective contradictions. Secondly, this objective transition is too slow to act as a system constraint, and objective thresholds must thus be considered quite conservatively. Improvement of the adjustment strategy is demonstrated through the addition of an integral term. Selection of well-performing transition parameters can be a function of sea-state. While a simple selection procedure is proposed, it is non-optimal, and a more robust selection procedure is suggested for future work.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydropower Infrastructure - LAkes, Reservoirs, and RIvers (HILARRI), v4

HILARRI is a database of links between major datasets of operational hydropower dams and powerplants, and inland water bodies. These connections are critical for conducting large-scale analysis of hydropower infrastructure and their associated natural and engineered water systems. Features include: – Dams from the National Inventory of Dams (2025) and the Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD v1.3) – Hydropower plants from the Existing Hydropower Assets dataset (EHA 2025) – Power plants that are listed in the 2025 U.S. Hydropower Development Pipeline Data or were listed in previous versions of the dataset These hydropower infrastructure features are linked to several major datasets that provide hydrologic and hydraulic information relevant for analysis of hydropower systems that includes the integral water resources. That information comes from: – Products from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) – NHDPlusV2 Medium Resolution river network flowlines, – NHD waterbodies (limited to lakes and reservoirs), – NHD Watershed Boundary Dataset (HUC12-level for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)) – NHD High Resolution waterbodies – HydroLAKES water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) – LAGOS-US lakes and reservoirs – EPA National Lakes Assessment (2007, 2012, 2017, and 2022) – The Reservoir Sedimentation Database (RESSED) – EPA SuRGE sampling locations Unique identifiers are used to facilitate joining to the original full datasets. For example, characteristics of NHD flowlines such as estimated average flow rate can be joined from the NHDPlusV2 dataset to a dam or power plant listed in HILARRI based on the ID field, “COMID”, that is common to both datasets. HILARRI only includes basic information about identifiers, location, and data quality or usage notes. It does not contain the attributes or time series data associated with these sites. The HILARRI dataset incorporates information from several datasets to facilitate more effective and accurate analysis of hydropower infrastructure and their associated waterbodies. For example, dams were checked against the most recent American Rivers Dam Removal Database to identify and flag facilities that may no longer exist. Additionally, dams that are listed multiple times in the NID are identified and flagged to avoid double-counting when analyzing and summarizing information. Other quality flags include certainty of operational hydropower (i.e., if one or more datasets indicates hydropower at a particular location), whether an associated water body is accurate or composed of multiple polygons, or whether there is a known issue with reported characteristics in one of the underlying datasets. These additional data flags are designed to increase confidence in data usage for individual to large-scale analyses.

Hansen, Carly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000193280838)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Regional variations in the magnitude of heiligenschein and causal connections, part O

A preliminary quantitative analysis was conducted of four frames exposed by the Apollo 15 metric camera. Two of the frames show the zero-phase surge on maria and the other two show the surge on terrae. It was found that the curves resulting from brightness plotted as a function of phase angle, differ markedly according to which terrain type is involved. The magnitude of the heiligenschein was found to be significantly greater for the maria than for the terrae.

Wildey, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Sedimentology of clastic rocks from the Fra Mauro region of the moon.

A thin-section examination of sixteen clastic rock samples returned by the Apollo 14 mission from the Fra Mauro region of the moon suggests the presence of at least two distinctly different lithologies. Five of the samples (group I) are characterized by an abundant glassy matrix and glass particles and lesser amounts of plagioclase and pyroxene grains, and lithic clasts. The other eleven samples (group II) are relatively fine grained, very poorly sorted, and consist largely of pyroxene, plagioclase, and lithic clasts set in an abundant mineralic matrix. Group I and II lithologies were probably both deposited from impact generated base surges. The differences between them stem not as much from the basic sedimentary processes as from the differences in the magnitude of the events generating the base surges and the resultant difference in available detrital materials.

Lindsay, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Evaluate ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover on land and on glaciers

The author has identified the following significant results. The area of snow cover on land was determined from ERTS-1 imagery. Snow cover in specific drainage basins was measured with the Stanford Research Institute console by electronically superimposing basin outlines on imagery, with video density slicing to measure areas. Snow covered area and snowline altitudes were also determined by enlarging ERTS-1 imagery 1:250,000 and using a transparent map overlay. Under very favorable conditions, snowline altitude was determined to an accuracy of about 60 m. Ability to map snow cover or to determine snowline altitude depends primarily on cloud cover and vegetation and secondarily on slope, terrain roughness, sun angle, radiometric fidelity, and amount of spectral information available. Glacier accumulation area ratios were determined from ERTS-1 imagery. Also, subtle flow structures, undetected on aerial photographs, were visible. Surging glaciers were identified, and the changes resulting from the surge of a large glacier were measured as were changes in tidal glacier termini.

Meier, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Sedimentology of clastic rocks returned from the moon by Apollo 15.

A petrographic study of eleven samples of clastic rock returned from the moon by Apollo 15 suggests that two lithologies are present. The distinction between the two lithologies is based on the glass content of the rock matrices and the morphology of the detrital particles. Group I rocks have abundant, glass-rich, porous matrices and glass particles with morphologies comparable to those of glass particles in the lunar soil. The group I rocks were probably formed by welding or sintering of surficial soil deposits by impact-generated base surges of limited extent. Group II rocks have an essentially mineralic matrix and have an abundance of rounded mineral grains. Sample 15455 is the only Apollo 15 sample assigned to this group. In its general textural features, sample 15455 is comparable with the group II rocks from the Fra Mauro Formation at the Apollo 14 site. Textural features such as shock modification and rounding of mineral grains suggest that this sample is the product of a large-scale impact-generated base surge which possibly resulted from the Imbrian event.

Lindsay, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Chondrules in Apollo 14 samples and size analyses of Apollo 14 and 15 fines.

Chondrules have been observed in several breccia samples and one fines sample returned by the Apollo 14 mission. The chondrules are formed by at least three different processes that appear to be related to large impacts: (1) crystallization of shock-melted spherules and droplets; (2) rounding of rock clasts and mineral grains by abrasion in the base surge; and (3) diffusion and recrystallization around clasts in hot base surge and fall-back deposits. In the case of the Apollo 14 samples, the large impact almost certainly is the Imbrian event. Grain size analyses of undisturbed fines samples from the Apollo 14 site and from the Apollo 15 Apennine Front are almost identical, indicating that the two localities have similar meteoroid bombardment exposure ages, approximately 3.7 x 10 to the 9th yr. This observation is consistent with the interpretation that both the Fra Mauro formation and the Apennine Front material originated as ejecta from the Imbrian event.

King, E. A., Jr.↗