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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Vegetable intake and the risk of bladder cancer in the BLadder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) international study

Although a potential inverse association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk has been reported, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This research aimed to elucidate the association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk by conducting a pooled analysis of data from prospective cohort studies. Vegetable intake in relation to bladder cancer risk was examined by pooling individual-level data from 13 cohort studies, comprising 3203 cases among a total of 555,685 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by cohort for intakes of total vegetable, vegetable subtypes (i.e. non-starchy, starchy, green leafy and cruciferous vegetables) and individual vegetable types. In addition, a diet diversity score was used to assess the association of the varied types of vegetable intake on bladder cancer risk. The association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk differed by sex ( P -interaction = 0.011) and smoking status ( P -interaction = 0.038); therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking status. With adjustment of age, sex, smoking, energy intake, ethnicity and other potential dietary factors, we found that higher intake of total and non-starchy vegetables were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer among women (comparing the highest with lowest intake tertile: HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64–0.98, P = 0.037 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81–0.99; HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.63–0.97, P = 0.034 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79–0.98, respectively). However, no evidence of association was observed among men, and the intake of vegetable was not found to be associated with bladder cancer when stratified by smoking status. Moreover, we found no evidence of association for diet diversity with bladder cancer risk. Higher intakes of total and non-starchy vegetable are associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer for women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these results reflect causal processes and potential underlying mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Sodium Thermal Stratification Models Utilizing the TSTF Benchmark

As a result of certain transient scenarios, a thermally stratified layer of liquid sodium can develop in the bulk coolant volumes of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). In addition to the effects a stratification layer has on the temperature of the heat transport system, a stratification layer can also influence the transition to and establishment of natural circulation flow, which plays an important role in passive cooling and the inherent safety of a pool-type SFR. Therefore, the ability to accurately capture thermal stratification phenomena is important when demonstrating the safety basis of a pool-type SFR during transient sequences. The present work assesses various computational models with different fidelities in their ability to predict thermal stratification in the upper plenum of an SFR. Each computational model will be assessed using the data generated at the Thermal Stratification Test Facility (TSTF) located at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Using measured flow rate and inlet temperature data, the measured temperature distributions of the tests are compared to the predictions of the lumped volume-based models in SAS4A/SASSYS-1, a 1D-based model in SAM, and a 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model using STAR-CCM+. The relative performance of the various computational methods is assessed with respect to key metrics such as bulk coolant temperature distribution and plenum exit temperature. A total of eight tests are analyzed, covering different combinations of flow rates (3 and 10 GPM) and upper internal structure (UIS) configurations (none, solid, porous, and open) The perfect mixing model of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 provides the highest accuracy when the flow rate is high and there is no UIS in the test vessel, as high flow rate injection promotes thermal mixing of the sodium in the test vessel. For most of the analyzed tests, the stratified volume model of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is able to predict the delay in the outlet temperature drop and temperature distribution in the test vessel by a small number of layers to represent thermal stratification. However, the stratified volume model can only simulate a maximum of three temperature layers within a volume and when a layer approaches the elevation of the outlet, the predicted outlet temperature can demonstrate rapid, non-physical changes. The 1-D axial mixing model of SAM provides results that agree reasonably well with the measured data in the prediction of the temporal evolution of the outlet temperature with the exception of the case with a high flow rate and no UIS. The SAM 1-D model has a similar level of accuracy to CFD results when it comes to predicting the outlet temperature. CFD shows overall good agreement in predicting the temperature distribution in the test vessel and outlet temperature. As CFD can model the test vessel geometry in detail, it performs well in the cases of complex geometries such as tests that included a UIS and internal flow through the UIS resulting in active mixing of the coolant in the test vessel. Each of the models discussed in the present work has the potential to be useful during the various stages of reactor design, analysis, and licensing. The lumped-volume approach can be applied for fast turnaround safety calculations to obtain overall reactor behavior during transients. The 1-D models provide improved accuracy when stratification is expected for a relatively low increase in the computational cost. The CFD model can be utilized for confirmatory analysis of the 1-D model, when experimental measurements are not available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Optimal spatial sampling techniques for ground truth data in microwave remote sensing of soil moisture

The paper examines optimal sampling techniques for obtaining accurate spatial averages of soil moisture, at various depths and for cell sizes in the range 2.5-40 acres, with a minimum number of samples. Both simple random sampling and stratified sampling procedures are used to reach a set of recommended sample sizes for each depth and for each cell size. Major conclusions from statistical sampling test results are that (1) the number of samples required decreases with increasing depth; (2) when the total number of samples cannot be prespecified or the moisture in only one single layer is of interest, then a simple random sample procedure should be used which is based on the observed mean and SD for data from a single field; (3) when the total number of samples can be prespecified and the objective is to measure the soil moisture profile with depth, then stratified random sampling based on optimal allocation should be used; and (4) decreasing the sensor resolution cell size leads to fairly large decreases in samples sizes with stratified sampling procedures, whereas only a moderate decrease is obtained in simple random sampling procedures.

Rao, R. G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Magneto-atmospheric waves

A theoretical treatment of magneto-atmospheric waves is presented and applied to the modelling of waves in the solar atmosphere. The waves arise in compressible, stratified, electrically conductive atmospheres within gravitational fields when permeated by a magnetic field. Compression, buoyancy, and distortion of the magnetic field all contribute to the existence of the waves. Basic linearized equations are introduced to describe the waves and attention is given to plane-stratified atmospheres and their stability. A dispersion relation is defined for wave propagation in a plane-stratified atmosphere when there are no plane-wave solutions. Solutions are found for the full wave equation in the presence of either a vertical or a horizontal magnetic field. The theory is applied to describing waves in sunspots, in penumbrae, and flare-induced coronal disturbances.

Thomas, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Spectral reflectance of surface soils: Relationships with some soil properties

Using a published atlas of reflectance curves and physicochemical properties of soils, a statistical analysis was carried out. Reflectance bands which correspond to five of the wavebands used by NASA's Thematic Mapper were examined for relationships to specific soil properties. The properties considered in this study include: Sand Content, Silt Content, Clay Content, Organic Matter Content, Cation Exchange Capacity, Iron Oxide Content and Moisture Content. Regression of these seven properties on the mean values of five TM bands produced results that indicate that the predictability of the properties can be increased by stratifying the data. The data was stratified by parent material, taxonomic order, temperature zone, moisture zone and climate (combined temperature and moisture). The best results were obtained when the sample was examined by climatic classes. The middle Infra-red bands, 5 and 7, as well as the visible bands, 2 and 3, are significant in the model. The near Infra-red band, band 4, is almost as useful and should be included in any studies. General linear modeling procedures examined relationships of the seven properties with certain wavebands in the stratified samples.

Kiesewetter, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Predicting Buoyant Shear Flows Using Anisotropic Dissipation Rate Models

This paper examines the modeling of two-dimensional homogeneous stratified turbulent shear flows using the Reynolds-stress and Reynolds-heat-flux equations. Several closure models have been investigated-, the emphasis is placed on assessing the effect of modeling the dissipation rate tensor in the Reynolds-stress equation. Three different approaches are considered: one is an isotropic approach while the other two are anisotropic approaches. The isotropic approach is based on Kolmogorov's hypothesis and a dissipation rate equation modified to account for vortex stretching. One of the anisotropic approaches is based on an algebraic representation of the dissipation rate tensor, while another relies on solving a modeled transport equation for this tensor. In addition, within the former anisotropic approach, two different algebraic representations are examined one is a function of the Reynolds-stress anisotropy tensor, and the other is a function of' the mean velocity gradients. The performance of these closure models is evaluated against experimental and direct numerical simulation data of pure shear flows. pure buoyant flows and buoyant shear flows. Calculations have been carried out over a range of Richardson numbers (Ri) and two different Prandtl numbers (Pr); thus the effect of Pr on the development of counter-gradient heat flux in a stratified shear flow can be assessed. At low Ri, the isotropic model performs well in the predictions of stratified shear flows; however, its performance deteriorates as Ri increases. At high Ri, the transport equation model for the dissipation rate tensor gives the best result. Furthermore, the results also lend credence to the algebraic dissipation rate model based on the Reynolds stress anisotropy tensor. Finally, it is found that Pr has an effect on the development of counter-gradient heat flux. The calculations show that, under the action of shear, counter-gradient heat flux does not occur even at Ri = 1 in an air flow.

So, R. M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Large Eddy Simulation of Aircraft Wake Vortices in a Homogeneous Atmospheric Turbulence: Vortex Decay and Descent

The effects of ambient turbulence on decay and descent of aircraft wake vortices are studied using a validated, three-dimensional: large-eddy simulation model. Numerical simulations are performed in order to isolate the effect of ambient turbulence on the wake vortex decay rate within a neutrally-stratified atmosphere. Simulations are conducted for a range of turbulence intensities, by injecting wake vortex pairs into an approximately homogeneous and isotropic turbulence field. The decay rate of the vortex circulation increases clearly with increasing ambient turbulence level, which is consistent with field observations. Based on the results from the numerical simulations, simple decay models are proposed as functions of dimensionless ambient turbulence intensity (eta) and dimensionless time (T) for the circulation averaged over a range of radial distances. With good agreement with the numerical results, a Gaussian type of vortex decay model is proposed for weak turbulence: while an exponential type of Tortex decay model can be applied for strong turbulence. A relationship for the vortex descent based on above vortex decay model is also proposed. Although the proposed models are based on simulations assuming neutral stratification, the model predictions are compared to Lidar vortex measurements observed during stable, neutral, and unstable atmospheric conditions. In the neutral and unstable atmosphere, the model predictions appear to be in reasonable agreement with the observational data, while in the stably-stratified atmosphere, they largely underestimate the observed circulation decay with consistent overestimation of the observed vortex descent. The underestimation of vortex decay during stably-stratified conditions suggests that stratification has an important influence on vortex decay when ambient levels of turbulence are weak.

Han, Jongil↗
NASA NTRS2005

On Modeling Air/Space-Borne Radar Returns in the Melting Layer

The bright band is the enhanced radar echo associated with the melting of hydrometeors in stratiform rain where the melting process usually occurs below 0 C isotherm over a distance of about 500m. To simulate this radar signature, a scattering model of melting snow is proposed in which the fractional water content is prescribed as a function of the radius of a spherical mixed- phase particle consisting of air, ice and water. The model is based on the observation that melting starts at the surface of the particle and then gradually develops towards the center. To compute the scattering parameters of a non-uniform melting particle, the particle is modeled as a sphere represented by a collection of 64(exp 3) cubic cells of identical size where the probability of water at any cell is prescribed as a function of the radius. The internal field of the particle, used for deriving the effective dielectric constant, is computed by the Conjugate Gradient and Fast Fourier Transform (CGFFT) numerical methods. To make computations of the scattering parameters more efficient, a multi-layer stratified-sphere scattering model is introduced after demonstrating that the scattering parameters of the non-uniformly melting particle can be accurately reproduced by the stratified sphere. In conjunction with a melting layer model that describes the melting fractions and fall velocities of hydrometeors as a function of the distance from the 0 C isotherm, the stratified-sphere model is used to simulate the radar bright band profiles. These simulated profiles are shown to compare well with measurements from the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and a dual-wavelength airborne radar. The results suggest that the proposed model of a melting snow particle may be useful in studying the characteristics of the bright-band in particular and mixed- phase hydrometeors in general.

Liao, Liang↗
NASA NTRS2004

Models for the Infrared Cavity of HH 46/47

We have modeled the limb-brightened cavity seen in the new Spitzer Space Telescope IR images of the southwest lobe of HH 46/47 as the bow shock driven by an outflow from a young, low-mass star. We present models in which the outflow is a perfectly collimated, straight jet, models in which the jet precesses, and finally a model in which the outflow takes the form of a latitude-dependent wind. We study cases in which the outflow moves into a constant-density cloud and into a stratified cloud. We find that the best agreement with the observed cavity is obtained for the precessing jet in a stratified cloud. However, the straight jet (traveling in a stratified cloud) also gives cavity shapes close to the observed one. The latitude-dependent wind model that we have computed gives cavity shapes that are substantially wider than the observed cavity. We therefore conclude that the cavity seen in the Spitzer observations of the southwest lobe of the HH 46/47 outflow do not seem to imply the presence of a latitude-dependent wind, as it can be modeled successfully with a perfectly collimated jet model.

Herbig Haro objects↗
NASA NTRS2010

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Simulations of Jet Mixing in Tanks of Different Scales

For long-duration in-space storage of cryogenic propellants, an axial jet mixer is one concept for controlling tank pressure and reducing thermal stratification. Extensive ground-test data from the 1960s to the present exist for tank diameters of 10 ft or less. The design of axial jet mixers for tanks on the order of 30 ft diameter, such as those planned for the Ares V Earth Departure Stage (EDS) LH2 tank, will require scaling of available experimental data from much smaller tanks, as well designing for microgravity effects. This study will assess the ability for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to handle a change of scale of this magnitude by performing simulations of existing ground-based axial jet mixing experiments at two tank sizes differing by a factor of ten. Simulations of several axial jet configurations for an Ares V scale EDS LH2 tank during low Earth orbit (LEO) coast are evaluated and selected results are also presented. Data from jet mixing experiments performed in the 1960s by General Dynamics with water at two tank sizes (1 and 10 ft diameter) are used to evaluate CFD accuracy. Jet nozzle diameters ranged from 0.032 to 0.25 in. for the 1 ft diameter tank experiments and from 0.625 to 0.875 in. for the 10 ft diameter tank experiments. Thermally stratified layers were created in both tanks prior to turning on the jet mixer. Jet mixer efficiency was determined by monitoring the temperatures on thermocouple rakes in the tanks to time when the stratified layer was mixed out. Dye was frequently injected into the stratified tank and its penetration recorded. There were no velocities or turbulence quantities available in the experimental data. A commercially available, time accurate, multi-dimensional CFD code with free surface tracking (FLOW-3D from Flow Science, Inc.) is used for the simulations presented. Comparisons are made between computed temperatures at various axial locations in the tank at different times and those observed experimentally. The affect of various modeling parameters on the agreement obtained are assessed.

Breisacher, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2013

Chandra Grating Spectroscopy of Three Hot White Dwarfs

High-resolution soft X-ray spectroscopic observations of single hot white dwarfs are scarce. With the Chandra Low-Energy Transmission Grating, we have observed two white dwarfs, one is of spectral type DA (LB1919) and the other is a non-DA of spectral type PG1159 (PG1520+525). The spectra of both stars are analyzed, together with an archival Chandra spectrum of another DA white dwarf (GD246). Aims. The soft X-ray spectra of the two DA white dwarfs are investigated in order to study the effect of gravitational settling and radiative levitation of metals in their photospheres. LB1919 is of interest because it has a significantly lower metallicity than DAs with otherwise similar atmospheric parameters. GD246 is the only white dwarf known that shows identifiable individual iron lines in the soft X-ray range. For the PG1159 star, a precise effective temperature determination is performed in order to confine the position of the blue edge of the GW Vir instability region in the HRD. Methods. The Chandra spectra are analyzed with chemically homogeneous as well as stratified NLTE model atmospheres that assume equilibrium between gravitational settling and radiative acceleration of chemical elements. Archival EUV and UV spectra obtained with EUVE, FUSE, and HST are utilized to support the analysis. Results. No metals could be identified in LB1919. All observations are compatible with a pure hydrogen atmosphere. This is in stark contrast to the vast majority of hot DA white dwarfs that exhibit light and heavy metals and to the stratified models that predict significant metal abundances in the atmosphere. For GD246 we find that neither stratified nor homogeneous models can fit the Chandra spectrum. The Chandra spectrum of PG1520+525 constrains the effective temperature to T(sub eff) = 150 000 +/- 10 000 K. Therefore, this nonpulsating star together with the pulsating prototype of the GWVir class (PG1159-035) defines the location of the blue edge of the GWVir instability region. The result is in accordance with predictions from nonadiabatic stellar pulsation models. Such models are therefore reliable tools to investigate the interior structure of GW Vir variables. Conclusions. Our soft X-ray study reveals that the understanding of metal abundances in hot DA white dwarf atmospheres is still incomplete. On the other hand, model atmospheres of hydrogen-deficient PG1159-type stars are reliable and reproduce well the observed spectra from soft X-ray to optical wavelengths.

Adamczak, J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sinda/Fluint Stratfied Tank Modeling

A general purpose SINDA/FLUINT (S/F) stratified tank model was created and used to simulate the Ksite1 LH2 liquid self-pressurization tests as well as axial jet mixing within the liquid region of the tank. The S/F model employed the use of stratified layers, i.e. S/F lumps, in the vapor ullage as well as in the liquid region. The model was constructed to analyze a general purpose stratified tank that could incorporate the following features: Multiple or singular lumps in the liquid and vapor regions of the tank, Real gases (also mixtures) and compressible liquids, Venting, pressurizing, and draining, Condensation and evaporation/boiling, Wall heat transfer, Elliptical, cylindrical, and spherical tank geometries. Extensive user logic was used to allow for tailoring of the above features to specific cases. Most of the code input for a specific case could be done through the Registers Data Block.

Sinda/Fluint↗
NASA NTRS2014

Resonant Tidal Excitation of Internal Waves in the Earth's Fluid Core

It has long been speculated that there is a stably stratified layer below the core-mantle boundary, and two recent studies have improved the constraints on the parameters describing this stratification. Here we consider the dynamical implications of this layer using a simplified model. We first show that the stratification in this surface layer has sensitive control over the rate at which tidal energy is transferred to the core. We then show that when the stratification parameters from the recent studies are used in this model, a resonant configuration arrives whereby tidal forces perform elevated rates of work in exciting core flow. Specifically, the internal wave speed derived from the two independent studies (150 and 155 m/s) are in remarkable agreement with the speed (152 m/s) required for excitation of the primary normal mode of oscillation as calculated from full solutions of the Laplace Tidal Equations applied to a reduced-gravity idealized model representing the stratified layer. In evaluating this agreement it is noteworthy that the idealized model assumed may be regarded as the most reduced representation of the stratified dynamics of the layer, in that there are no non-essential dynamical terms in the governing equations assumed. While it is certainly possible that a more realistic treatment may require additional dynamical terms or coupling, it is also clear that this reduced representation includes no freedom for coercing the correlation described. This suggests that one must accept either (1) that tidal forces resonantly excite core flow and this is predicted by a simple model or (2) that either the independent estimates or the dynamical model does not accurately portray the core surface layer and there has simply been an unlikely coincidence between three estimates of a stratification parameter which would otherwise have a broad plausible range.

Geodynamo↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low-Reynolds-number oscillating boundary layers on adiabatic slopes

We investigate the instabilities and transition mechanisms of Boussinesq stratified boundary layers on sloping boundaries when subjected to oscillatory body forcing parallel to the slope. We examine idealized forms of boundary layers on hydraulically smooth abyssal slopes in tranquil mid- to low-latitude regions, where low-wavenumber internal tides gently heave isopycnals up and down adiabatic slopes in the absence of mean flows, high-wavenumber internal tides, shelf breaks, resonant tide–bathymetry interactions (critical slopes) and other phenomena associated with turbulence ‘hot spots’. In non-rotating low-Reynolds-number flow, increased stratification on the downslope phase has a relaminarizing effect, while on the upslope phase we find transition-to-turbulence pathways arise from shear production triggered by gravitational instabilities. When rotation is significant (low slope Burger numbers) we find that boundary layer turbulence is sustained throughout the oscillation period, resembling stratified Stokes–Ekman layer turbulence. Simulation results suggest that oscillating boundary layers on smooth slopes at low Reynolds number ($Re\leqslant 840$), unity Prandtl number and slope Burger numbers greater than unity do not cause significant irreversible turbulent buoyancy flux (mixing), and that flat-bottom dissipation rate models derived from the tide amplitude are accurate within an order of magnitude.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗