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At least 307 records · Page 17

A New ML-Based Adaptive Thinning Methodology to Improve the Impact of AIRS and CrIS Assimilation on Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

This work builds on previous research performed by this team to improve the forecast of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) by assimilating AIRS and CrIS radiances into the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS). Past published work demonstrated that the assimilation of radiances with variable density was beneficial to TC forecasting in the GEOS. In the previous setup, a fixed-size moving square named 'TC domain' was activated by the so-called TC-vitals, an international real-time message accessible to all NWP forecasting centers, that documents the existence of a TC, its estimated position, and its size. The information from TC-vitals activated a switch in the GEOS, which allowed to reduce the distance used for thinning AIRS and CrIS data inside a 15 degrees by 15 degrees moving TC domain centered on the storm, so that more data were assimilated in the vicinity of the TC during its lifetime. The methodology produced improved TC analyses and led to better forecasts, particularly related to intensity, without damaging the global forecast skill. In the new version, the adaptive thinning methodology is based on a machine-learning technique. The technique searches for TCs and creates TC masks by using cloud-top temperatures from all geostationary satellites without the need for additional information. It is being trained against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data base. Once a TC mask is created, a switch identical to the one used in the previous adaptive thinning method is activated, allowing the GEOS to ingest more data in the TC-shaped size-changing domain that follows the storm. As of today, the team has been able to successfully assimilate data inside the ML-detected TC domains. Future work includes an improved capability of reducing false alarm rates (i.e., cloud systems that are erroneously labeled as TCs).

Oreste Reale↗

Small-Scale Tropopause Dynamics and TOMS Total Ozone

This project used Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) along-track ozone retrievals, in conjunction with ancillary meteorological fields and modeling studies, for high resolution investigations of upper troposphere and lower stratosphere dynamics. Specifically, high resolution along-track (Level 2) EP TOMS data were used to investigate the beautiful fine-scale structure in constituent and meteorological fields prominent in the evolution of highly non-linear baroclinic storm systems. Comparison was made with high resolution meteorological models. The analyses provide internal consistency checks and validation of the EP TOMS data which are vital for monitoring ozone depletion in both polar and midlatitude regions.

Stanford, John L.↗

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and U.S. Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission specifically designed to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational microwave sensors. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a 65 deg non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a transfer standard for inter-calibration of constellation radiometers. The GPM Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a conical-scanning multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The first space-borne dual-frequency radar will provide not only measurements of 3-D precipitation structures but also quantitative information on microphysical properties of precipitating particles needed for improving precipitation retrievals from passive microwave sensors. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation estimates from all constellation radiometers. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise five or more conical-scanning microwave radiometers and four or more cross-track microwave sounders on operational satellites. NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) plan to launch the GPM Core in July 2013. NASA will provide a second radiometer to be flown on a partner-provided GPM Low-Inclination Observatory (L10) to improve near real-time monitoring of hurricanes and mid-latitude storms. NASA and the Brazilian Space Program (AEB/IPNE) are currently engaged in a one-year study on potential L10 partnership. JAXA will contribute to GPM data from the Global Change Observation Mission-Water (GCOM-W) satellite. Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as cross-track scanning humidity sounders on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), POES, the NASA/NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and EUMETSAT MetOp satellites. Data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may also become available through international collaboration under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The current generation of global rainfall products combines observations from a network of uncoordinated satellite missions using a variety of merging techniques. Relative to current data products, GPM's "nextgeneration" precipitation products will be characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation estimate (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders over land, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori hydrometeor database constrained by combined radar/radiometer measurements provided by the GPM Core Observatory. An overview of the GPM mission concept, the U.S. GPM program status and updates on international science collaborations on GPM will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.

AGCM↗

Photovoltaic array for Martian surface power

Missions to Mars will require electric power. A leading candidate for providing power is solar power produced by photovoltaic arrays. To design such a power system, detailed information on solar-radiation availability on the Martian surface is necessary. The variation of the solar radiation on the Martian surface is governed by three factors: (1) variation in Mars-Sun distance; (2) variation in solar zenith angle due to Martian season and time of day; and (3) dust in the Martian atmosphere. A major concern is the dust storms, which occur on both local and global scales. However, there is still appreciable diffuse sunlight available even at high opacity, so that solar array operation is still possible. Typical results for tracking solar collectors are also shown and compared to the fixed collectors. During the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer the isolation is relatively high, 2-5 kW-hr/sq m-day, due to the low optical depth of the Martian atmosphere. These seasons, totalling a full terrestrial year, are the likely ones during which manned mission will be carried out.

Appelbaum, J.↗

Photovoltaic arrays for Martian surface power

Missions to Mars will require electric power. A leading candidate for providing power is solar power produced by photovoltaic arrays. To design such a power system, detailed information on solar-radiation availability on the Martian surface is necessary. The variation of the solar radiation on the Martian surface is governed by three factors: (1) variation in Mars-sun distance; (2) variation on solar zenith angle due to Martian season and time of day; and (3) dust in the Martian atmosphere. A major concern is the dust storms, which occur on both local and global scales. However, there is still appreciable diffuse sunlight available even at high opacity, so that solar array operation is still possible. Typical results for tracking solar collectors are also shown and compared to the fixed collectors. During the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer the isolation is relatively high, 2-5 kW-hr/sq m-day due to the low optical depth of the Martian atmosphere. These seasons, totalling a full terrestrial year, are the likely ones during which manned mission will be carried out.

Appelbaum, Joseph↗

Synoptic and Mesoscale Cloud Tracking

The papers in this section include: 1)'Wind Derivation from Geostationary Satellites'; 2) 'The Operational Processing of Wind Estimates from Cloud Motions: Past, Present, and Future'; 3) 'Intercomparision of SMS Wind Sets: A Study Using Rapid Scan Imagery'; 4) 'Mesoscale Wind Fields for a Severe Storm Situation Determined from SMS Cloud Observations'; 5) 'Moisture Convergence Using Satellite-Derived Wind Fields: A Severe Local Storm Case Study'

Wilson, G.↗

A Total Lightning Perspective of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell

In the early afternoon of 20 May 2013, a storm initiated to the west‐southwest of Newcastle, Oklahoma. This storm would rapidly intensify into the parent supercell of the tornado that struck the city of Moore, Oklahoma. This article describes what contributions total lightning observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array could provide to operational forecasters had these observations been available in real‐time. This effort includes a focus on the GOES‐R pseudo‐geostationary lightning mapper demonstration product as well as the NASA SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool. These observations and tools identified several contributions. Two distinct lightning jumps at 1908 and 1928 UTC provided a lead time of 19 minutes ahead of severe hail and 26 minutes ahead of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado's touchdown. These observations provide strong situational awareness to forecasters, as the lightning jumps are related to the rapid strengthening of the storm's updraft and mesocyclone and serve as a precursor to the stretching of the storm vortex ahead severe weather.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasmasheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasmasheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

Viking radio occultation measurements of the atmosphere and topography of Mars - Data acquired during 1 Martian year of tracking

The results of one Martian year of radio occultation measurements of the atmosphere and topography of Mars obtained using the Viking Orbiters are briefly summarized. Determinations of the vertical distribution of tropospheric gas refractivity and ionospheric electron density obtained from atmospheric Doppler frequency perturbations of the S and X band radio tracking frequencies indicate large meteorological variations, with near-surface temperatures ranging from 150 to 250 K, 5-km atmospheric pressure ranging from 3.5 to 4.8 mbar, inversion layers over the polar caps and dust storms, and seasonal pressure variations. Double- and single-layered upper atmospheric electron density profiles were observed on the sunlit and dark sides of the planet, respectively. A topographic map of the Martian surface, obtained from the limb diffraction effects observed at ingress and egress, is found to agree well with the elevation contours of US Geological survey map M 25M 3 RMC, with the exception of the south polar and Alba Patera regions.

Lindal, G. F.↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasma sheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasma sheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗