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At least 307 records · Page 17

Potential vorticity transport in weakly and strongly magnetized plasmas

Tangled magnetic fields, often coexisting with an ordered mean field, have a major impact on turbulence and momentum transport in many plasmas, including those found in the solar tachocline and magnetic confinement devices. We present a novel mean field theory of potential vorticity mixing in β-plane magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and drift wave turbulence. Our results show that mean square stochastic fields strongly reduce Reynolds stress coherence. This decoherence of potential vorticity flux due to stochastic field scattering leads to suppression of momentum transport and zonal flow formation. A simple calculation suggests that the breaking of the shear-eddy tilting feedback loop by stochastic fields is the key underlying physics mechanism. Furthermore, a dimensionless parameter that quantifies the increment in power threshold is identified and used to assess the impact of stochastic field on the L-H transition. We discuss a model of stochastic fields as a resisto-elastic network.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Methodology and analytical approach to investigate the impact of building temperature setpoint schedules

This work presents a method for generating a large set of stochastically varying temperature setpoint schedules for building performance simulations. It analyses tradeoffs resulting from specific changes to those schedules in terms of three quantities: total electricity consumption per day; maximum hourly electricity consumption per day and predicted percentage dissatisfied (occupant thermal comfort). The method for generating schedules requires a single base schedule as the starting point and, using a few clearly defined parameters, transforms it into a set of schedules that can be used for modelling an existing building stock or for performing parametric studies. Temperature setpoint schedules are generated and simulated for a small office building in a cool-dry climate in three different case studies pertaining to changing temperature setpoint schedules. Tradeoffs between the three output metrics are significant and vary based on the temperature setpoint schedules and the time of the year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Programme: Mg ii lags and R − L relation

ABSTRACT The correlation between the broad line region radius and continuum luminosity (R–L relation) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is critical for single-epoch mass estimates of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). At z ∼ 1–2, where AGN activity peaks, the R–L relation is constrained by the reverberation mapping (RM) lags of the Mg ii line. We present 25 Mg ii lags from the Australian Dark Energy Survey RM project based on 6 yr of monitoring. We define quantitative criteria to select good lag measurements and verify their reliability with simulations based on both the damped random walk stochastic model and the rescaled, resampled versions of the observed light curves of local, well-measured AGN. Our sample significantly increases the number of Mg ii lags and extends the R–L relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. The relative iron line strength $\mathcal {R}_{\rm Fe}$ has little impact on the R–L relation. The best-fitting Mg iiR–L relation has a slope α = 0.39 ± 0.08 with an intrinsic scatter $\sigma _{\rm rl} = 0.15^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ . The slope is consistent with previous measurements and shallower than the H β R–L relation. The intrinsic scatter of the new R–L relation is substantially smaller than previous studies and comparable to the intrinsic scatter of the H β R–L relation. Our new R–L relation will enable more precise single-epoch mass estimates and SMBH demographic studies at cosmic noon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Production of relativistic electrons at subrelativistic laser intensities

Relativistic electron temperatures were measured from kilojoule, subrelativistic laser-plasma interactions. Experiments reflect an order of magnitude higher temperatures than expected from a ponderomotive scaling, where temperatures of up to 2.2 MeV were generated using an intensity of 1 × 10 18 W/cm 2 . Two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations suggest that electrons gain superponderomotive energies by stochastic acceleration as they sample a large area of rapidly changing laser phase. We further demonstrate that such high temperatures are possible from subrelativistic intensities by using lasers with long pulse durations and large spatial scales.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable multilevel Monte Carlo methods exploiting parallel redistribution on coarse levels

Here, we study an element agglomeration coarsening strategy that requires data redistribution at coarse levels when the number of coarse elements becomes smaller than the number of MPI processes used on the finest level. The overall procedure generates coarse elements (general unstructured unions of fine grid elements) within the framework of element-based algebraic multigrid methods (or AMGe) studied previously. The AMGe-generated coarse spaces have the ability to exhibit approximation properties of the same order as the fine-level spaces since by construction they contain the piecewise polynomials of the same order as on the fine level. These approximation properties are key for the successful use of AMGe in multilevel solvers for nonlinear partial differential equations as well as for multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) simulations. The ability to coarsen without being constrained by the number of MPI processes, as described in the present paper, allows to improve the scalability of these solvers as well as the overall MLMC method. The paper illustrates this latter fact with detailed scalability study of MLMC simulations applied to model Darcy equations with a stochastic log-normal permeability field.

AMGe↗

Enhancing Convection Parameterization for Next Generation E3SM (Final Technical Report)

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period. The general goal of the project is to enhance the representation of atmospheric deep convection in the DOE global climate model E3SM. By implementing a stochastic convection scheme into E3SM, we improved the simulation of precipitation intensity and frequency. As a result, it has a profound impact on the simulation of other fields in the model, including aerosol scavenging by precipitation and aerosol radiative effects. We also implemented a convective cloud microphysics scheme into E3SMv2 to represent more accurately the interaction between convection and grid-scale clouds. An extensive analysis of model simulations as part of the Next Generation Development (NGD) convection scheme assessment project found that including the convective microphysics scheme improved the simulation of Madden-Julian oscillations (MJO) in the model. To make convective parameterization schemes more scale-aware as the GCM resolution increases, we analyzed the output from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of both organized and unorganized convection by coarse-graining the CRM data to different GCM resolutions. Using a novel approach to modify the convective closure, we demonstrated that the convection scheme used in E3SM (ZM scheme) can be made scale-aware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A mechanistic model for creep and thermal aging in Alloy 709

This report describes a physics-based model for creep and thermal aging in Alloy 709. Alloy 709 is an advanced austenitic alloy, targeted for use in future Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs) and other advanced reactors. The material has superior high temperature properties compared to currently qualified 316 and 304 stainless steels. However, the available creep and thermal aging test database for Alloy 709 is significantly more limited compared to the historical materials. The physics-based model developed here is one way to accelerate the qualification of the material by providing more accurate long-term predictions for creep properties and thermal aging, compared to current empirical time-extrapolate techniques. The crystal plasticity finite element model is used to predict the deformation and failure of alloy 709. The same setup for the CPFE model is used in both the baseline model calibration process and the simulation campaigns for parameter inference. Specific constitutive choices are made for Alloy 709 to capture the primary deformation mechanisms. The dislocation creep formulation developed by Hu and Cocks is extended to account for coupled precipitation formation and the grain boundary cavitation model developed by Sham, Needleman, et al. is used to model grain boundary cavitation-induced failure. A novel update algorithm is proposed to render the semi-discrete constitutive update for the Sham-Needleman model unconditionally stable. A progressive calibration approach is adopted based on the observations that several types of material responses can be effectively decoupled. A surrogate model is trained based on full-fledged CPFE simulations to accelerate the forward model evaluations, and stochastic variational inference (SVI) is used to calibrate the unknown microstructural model parameters. The calibrated mechanistic model is used to predict the long-term creep life of Alloy 709, and the predictions are compared against classical empirical approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensor Incipient Fault Impacts on Building Energy Performance: A Case Study on a Multi-Zone Commercial Building

Existing studies show sensor faults/error could double building energy consumption and carbon emissions compared with the baseline. Those studies assume that the sensor error is fixed or constant. However, sensor faults are incipient in real conditions and there were extremely limited studies investigating the incipient sensor fault impacts systematically. This study filled in this research gap by studying time-developing sensor fault impacts to rule-based controls on a 10-zone office building. The control sequences for variable air volume boxes (VAV) with an air handling unit (AHU) system were selected based on ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation for HVAC Systems. Large-scale simulations on cloud were conducted (3600 cases) through stochastic approach. Results show (1) The site energy differences could go –3.3% lower or 18.1% higher, compared with baseline. (2) The heating energy differences could go –66.5% lower or 314.4% higher, compared with baseline. (3) The cooling energy differences could go –11.5% lower or 65.0% higher, compared with baseline. (4) The fan energy differences could go 0.15% lower or 6.9% higher, compared with baseline.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Controlling the breakdown delay time in pulsed gas discharge

Abstract In experiment and 2D3V PIC MCC simulations, the breakdown development in a pulsed discharge in helium is studied for U = 3.2 kV and 10 kV and P = 100 Torr. The breakdown process is found to have a stochastic nature, and the electron avalanche develops in different experimental and simulation runs with time delays ranging from 0.3 to 8 μ s. Nevertheless our experiments demonstrate that the breakdown delay time distribution can be controlled with a change of the pulse discharge frequency. The simulation results show that the breakdown process can be distinguished in three stages with (a) the ionization by seed electrons, (b) the ions drift to the cathode and (c) the enhanced ionization within the cathode sheath by the electrons emitted from the cathode. The effects of variation of seed electron concentrations, voltage rise times, voltage amplitudes and ion–electron emission coefficients on the breakdown development in the pulsed gas discharge are reported.

Schweigert, I. V. (ORCID:0000000223641228)↗

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch

A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

analog forecast↗

Effect of Shear Displacement and Stress Changes on Fracture Hydraulic Aperture and Flow Anisotropy

Fluid flow in fractures has the potential to drastically change the economic, environmental, and safety risks associated with a subsurface operation. This work focuses on the analysis of experimental shear fracturing and subsequent shear displacement of a shale specimen that contains multiple pre-existing natural fractures. A triaxial direct shear apparatus with concurrent µCT imaging allowed continuous monitoring of sample permeability and changes in fracture geometry during fracture creation, displacement, and changes in stress. Steady-state, low Reynolds number fluid flow simulations were used to determine the changes of each individual fracture’s hydraulic aperture due to displacement and effective stress. The development of anisotropy in the hydraulic aperture of a generated shear fracture was determined for shear displacements of 0.38, 0.74, and 2.04 mm. At high confining stress (30 MPa), shear displacement significantly reduced the hydraulic aperture of the shear fracture to below flow detectable limits and X-ray imaging resolution (23 × 23 × 23 µm 3 ). The shear generated fracture was found to be more sensitive to changes in effective stress compared to the pre-existing natural fractures. Existing models derived from fluid flow equations accounting for stochastic fracture roughness were able to partially fit the simulated flow properties of the pre-existing fractures, but no model was found to fit the flow properties of the newly formed shear fracture. These results are the first report of simultaneous changes in the geometry and flow properties of surrounding, parallel natural fractures as a shear fracture is generated with varying stress and shear displacement conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization

Abstract. The rate at which aerosols spread from a point source injection, such as from a ship or other stationary pollution source, is critical for accurately representing subgrid plume spreading in a climate model. Such climate model results will guide future decisions regarding the feasibility and application of large-scale intentional marine cloud brightening (MCB). Prior modeling studies have shown that the rate at which ship plumes spread may be strongly dependent on meteorological conditions, such as precipitating versus non-precipitating boundary layers and shear. In this study, we apply a Lagrangian particle model (PM-ABL v1.0), governed by a Langevin stochastic differential equation, to create a simplified framework for predicting the rate of spreading from a ship-injected aerosol plume in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating boundary layers. The velocity and position of each stochastic particle is predicted with the acceleration of each particle being driven by the turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation rate, momentum variance, and mean wind. These inputs to the stochastic particle velocity equation are derived from high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LES) equipped with a prognostic aerosol–cloud microphysics scheme (UW-SAM) to simulate an aerosol injection from a ship into a cloud-topped marine boundary layer. The resulting spreading rate from the reduced-order stochastic model is then compared to the spreading rate in the LES. The stochastic particle velocity representation is shown to reasonably reproduce spreading rates in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating cases using domain-averaged turbulent statistics from the LES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum dynamics simulations of the 2D spectroscopy for exciton polaritons

We develop an accurate and numerically efficient non-adiabatic path-integral approach to simulate the non-linear spectroscopy of exciton–polariton systems. This approach is based on the partial linearized density matrix approach to model the exciton dynamics with explicit propagation of the phonon bath environment, combined with a stochastic Lindblad dynamics approach to model the cavity loss dynamics. Through simulating both linear and polariton two-dimensional electronic spectra, we systematically investigate how light–matter coupling strength and cavity loss rate influence the optical response signal. Our results confirm the polaron decoupling effect, which is the reduced exciton–phonon coupling among polariton states due to the strong light–matter interactions. We further demonstrate that the polariton coherence time can be significantly prolonged compared to the electronic coherence outside the cavity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch: Preprint

A significant difficultly associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DCOPF problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique on simulated dispatch operations of the RTS-GMLC over a week.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sources of stochasticity in the growth of cloud droplets: supersaturation fluctuations versus turbulent transport

The role played by fluctuations of supersaturation in the growth of cloud droplets is examined in this study. The stochastic condensation framework and the three regimes of activation of cloud droplets – namely, mean-dominant, fluctuation-influenced, and fluctuation-dominant, are used for analyzing the data from high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the Pi convection-cloud chamber. Based on a detailed budget analysis the significance of all the terms in the evolution of the droplet size distribution equation is evaluated in all three regimes. The analysis indicates that the mean-growth rate is a dominant process in shaping the droplet size distribution in all three regimes. Turbulence introduces two sources of stochasticity, turbulent transport and particle lifetime, and supersaturation fluctuations. The transport of cloud droplets plays an important role in all three regimes, whereas the direct effect of supersaturation fluctuations is primarily related to the activation and growth of the small droplets in the fluctuation-influenced and fluctuation-dominant regimes. Here, we compare our results against the previous studies (experimental and theory) of the Pi chamber, and discuss the limitations of the existing models based on the stochastic condensation framework. Furthermore, we extend the discussion of our results to atmospheric clouds, and in particular focus on recent adiabatic turbulent cloud parcel simulations based on the stochastic condensation framework, and emphasize the importance of entrainment/mixing and turbulent transport in shaping the droplet size distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗