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At least 307 records · Page 17

MicroRNAs as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers of age-related macular degeneration: advances and limitations

A main cause of vision loss in the elderly is age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Among the cellular, biochemical, and molecular changes linked to this disease, inflammation and angiogenesis appear as being crucial in AMD pathogenesis and progression. There are two forms of the disease: dry AMD, accounting for 80–90% of cases, and wet AMD. The disease usually begins as dry AMD associated with retinal pigment epithelium and photoreceptor degeneration, whereas wet AMD is associated with choroidal neovascularization resulting in severe vision impairment. The new vessels are largely malformed, leading to blood and fluid leakage within the disrupted tissue, which provokes inflammation and scar formation and results in retinal damage and detachment. MicroRNAs are dysregulated in AMD and may facilitate the early detection of the disease and monitoring disease progression. Two recent reviews of microRNAs in AMD had indicated weaknesses or limitations in four earlier investigations. Studies in the last three years have shown considerable progress in overcoming some of these concerns and identifying specific microRNAs as biomarkers for AMD. Further large-scale studies are warranted using appropriate statistical methods to take into account gender and age disparity in the study populations and confounding factors such as smoking status.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Ten Years of Cloud Optical and Microphysical Retrievals from MODIS

The MODIS cloud optical properties algorithm (MOD06/MYD06 for Terra and Aqua MODIS, respectively) has undergone extensive improvements and enhancements since the launch of Terra. These changes have included: improvements in the cloud thermodynamic phase algorithm; substantial changes in the ice cloud light scattering look up tables (LUTs); a clear-sky restoral algorithm for flagging heavy aerosol and sunglint; greatly improved spectral surface albedo maps, including the spectral albedo of snow by ecosystem; inclusion of pixel-level uncertainty estimates for cloud optical thickness, effective radius, and water path derived for three error sources that includes the sensitivity of the retrievals to solar and viewing geometries. To improve overall retrieval quality, we have also implemented cloud edge removal and partly cloudy detection (using MOD35 cloud mask 250m tests), added a supplementary cloud optical thickness and effective radius algorithm over snow and sea ice surfaces and over the ocean, which enables comparison with the "standard" 2.1 11m effective radius retrieval, and added a multi-layer cloud detection algorithm. We will discuss the status of the MOD06 algorithm and show examples of pixellevel (Level-2) cloud retrievals for selected data granules, as well as gridded (Level-3) statistics, notably monthly means and histograms (lD and 2D, with the latter giving correlations between cloud optical thickness and effective radius, and other cloud product pairs).

Platnick, Steven↗

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: An Initial Analysis of the Data

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a county level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes, combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format, meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. Further, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. As a result, the team collected more than 11 million data points. Following the close of this data collection effort on June 30 th , 2020, the team embarked on a major effort to appraise what had been collected, including an inventory list, spatial completeness, temporal completeness, scale and geographic characteristics, and a determination. A report on this matter was submitted on September 15 th , 2020, titled “DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Data Collection Coverage”. Over 2000 unique attributes had been netted over a wide range of spatial scales, including state, county, zip codes, health regions, and census blocks. Over 11 million individual data points were collected across these attributes, and spatial coverage (in total) included all 50 states and multiple territories. What became apparent in the process is that in the absence of any data standards, many states reported a wide variety of unique attributes that were not always compatible with attributes reported in other states. As time continued, states began adding new attributes and offering finer grain detail in some older attributes. This meant that not all data streams existed for the entire time period; in fact, the number tended to increase dramatically towards the end. Often, states would begin an attribute series and then stop altogether. These highly variable and uncertain conditions illuminated the need for harmonization approaches that would reconcile and conflate changing attribute names and detail over time. For example, grouping racial data reported as either Black or African American, depending on the state, into a single harmonized attribute. These choices would make a within-state analysis possible during the time period and lead to potential between-state analytics later on. This was almost entirely a manual decision process, requiring some subjective decision-making at times, to prevent a fragmented, short-lived collection of time series fragments that would offer few insights into trends, patterns, and correlates. This report imports harmonized data for state and county into the World Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP). WSTAMP is a major space-time analysis and visualization tool developed at ORNL for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency specifically for this kind of exploratory analysis. WSTAMP offers a rich analytical and graphical environment consisting of a wide range of analytics. These include time series plots, statistical summaries, data mining techniques, trend and pattern detection, and hypothesis generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A pilot study: Auditory steady-state responses (ASSR) can be measured in human fetuses using fetal magnetoencephalography (fMEG)

Auditory steady-state responses (ASSRs) are ongoing evoked brain responses to continuous auditory stimuli that play a role for auditory processing of complex sounds and speech perception. Transient auditory event-related responses (AERRs) have previously been recorded using fetal magnetoencephalography (fMEG) but involve different neurological pathways. Previous studies in children and adults demonstrated that the cortical components of the ASSR are significantly affected by state of consciousness and by maturational changes in neonates and young infants. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate ASSRs in human fetuses. 47 fMEG sessions were conducted with 24 healthy pregnant women in three gestational age groups (30–32 weeks, 33–35 weeks and 36–39 weeks). The stimulation consisted of amplitude-modulated (AM) tones with a duration of one second, a carrier frequency (CF) of 500 Hz and a modulation frequency (MF) of 27 Hz or 42 Hz. Both tones were presented in a random order with equal probability adding up to 80–100 repetitions per tone. The ASSR across trials was quantified by assessing phase synchrony in the cortical signals at the stimulation frequency. Ten out of 47 recordings were excluded due to technical problems or maternal movements. Analysis of the included 37 fetal recordings revealed a statistically significant response for the phase coherence between trials for the MF of 27 Hz but not for 42 Hz. An exploratory subgroup analysis moreover suggested an advantage in detectability for fetal behavioral state 2F (active asleep) compared to 1F (quiet asleep) detected using fetal heart rate. In conclusion, this pilot study is the first description of a method to detect human ASSRs in fetuses. The findings warrant further investigations of the developing fetal brain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scanning Backscatter Lidar Observations for Characterizing 4-D Cloud and Aerosol Fields to Improve Radiative Transfer Parameterizations

Clouds have a powerful influence on atmospheric radiative transfer and hence are crucial to understanding and interpreting the exchange of radiation between the Earth's surface, the atmosphere, and space. Because clouds are highly variable in space, time and physical makeup, it is important to be able to observe them in three dimensions (3-D) with sufficient resolution that the data can be used to generate and validate parameterizations of cloud fields at the resolution scale of global climate models (GCMs). Simulation of photon transport in three dimensionally inhomogeneous cloud fields show that spatial inhomogeneities tend to decrease cloud reflection and absorption and increase direct and diffuse transmission, Therefore it is an important task to characterize cloud spatial structures in three dimensions on the scale of GCM grid elements. In order to validate cloud parameterizations that represent the ensemble, or mean and variance of cloud properties within a GCM grid element, measurements of the parameters must be obtained on a much finer scale so that the statistics on those measurements are truly representative. High spatial sampling resolution is required, on the order of 1 km or less. Since the radiation fields respond almost instantaneously to changes in the cloud field, and clouds changes occur on scales of seconds and less when viewed on scales of approximately 100m, the temporal resolution of cloud properties should be measured and characterized on second time scales. GCM time steps are typically on the order of an hour, but in order to obtain sufficient statistical representations of cloud properties in the parameterizations that are used as model inputs, averaged values of cloud properties should be calculated on time scales on the order of 10-100 s. The Holographic Airborne Rotating Lidar Instrument Experiment (HARLIE) provides exceptional temporal (100 ms) and spatial (30 m) resolution measurements of aerosol and cloud backscatter in three dimensions. HARLIE was used in a ground-based configuration in several recent field campaigns. Principal data products include aerosol backscatter profiles, boundary layer heights, entrainment zone thickness, cloud fraction as a function of altitude and horizontal wind vector profiles based on correlating the motions of clouds and aerosol structures across portions of the scan. Comparisons will be made between various cloud detecting instruments to develop a baseline performance metric.

Schwemmer, Geary K.↗

Inland and Near Shore Water Profiles Derived from the High Altitude Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL)

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) on the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2) mission is a six beam, low energy, high repetition rate, 532 nm laser transmitter with photon counting detectors. Although designed primarily for detecting height changes in icecaps, sea ice and vegetation, the polar-orbital satellite will observe global surface water during its designed three year life span, including inland water bodies, coasts, and open oceans. In preparation for the mission, an ICESat-2 prototype or the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), was built and flown on high altitude aircraft experiments over a range of inland and near-shore targets. The purpose was to test the ATLAS concept and to provide a database for developing an algorithm that detects along track surface water height and light penetration under a range of atmospheric and water conditions. The current analysis examines the datasets of three MABEL transects observed from 20 km above ground of coastal and inland waters conducted in 2012 and 2013. Transects ranged from about 2 to 12 km in length and included the middle Chesapeake Bay, the near shore Atlantic coast at Virginia Beach, and Lake Mead. Results indicate MABEL's high capability for retrieving surface water height statistics with a mean height precision of approximately 5-7 cm per 100m segment length. Profiles of attenuated subsurface backscatter, characterized using a Signal to Background Ratio written in Log10 base, or LSBR0, were observed over a range of 1.3 to 9.3 meters depending on water clarity and atmospheric background. Results indicate that observable penetration depth, although primarily dependent on water properties, was greatest when solar background rate was low. Near shore bottom reflectance was detected only at the Lake Mead site down to maximum of 10 m under a clear night sky and low turbidity of approximately 1.6 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU). The overall results suggest that the feasibility of retrieving operational surface water height statistics from space-based photon counting systems such as ATLAS is very high for resolutions down to about 100m, even in partly cloudy conditions. The capability to observe subsurface backscatter profiles is achievable but requires much longer transects of several hundreds of meters.

Topographic↗

Neutron and Gamma-Ray Imaging of Th-232 and Cm-244 Using Organic Glass Scintillators

Modern nuclear safeguards require detection and characterization capabilities suitable for a wide variety of radiation sources and applications. Field-deployable detection systems have also had to modernize to meet changing needs. Recent developments in organic scintillator technology have resulted in the creation of an organic glass scintillator (OGS) at Sandia National Laboratory which is composed of a 9:1 mixture of glass compounds C42H36Si and C51H44Si. The novel scintillator composition was implemented into the design for a dual-particle capable imaging system at the University of Michigan. This work presents new results from two experiments demonstrating the gamma-ray and fast-neutron imaging capabilities of the organic glass system. Gamma spectroscopy was also performed using CeBr3 scintillators that are part of the imager design. Measurements were performed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory using 232Th metal hemishells and an encapsulated 244Cm oxide source. Successful gamma-ray imaging of the 232Th distributed sources is demonstrated with the glass imager, but there were no appreciable neutrons from the 232Th for neutron imaging. Promising neutron and gamma-ray imaging results of 244Cm are demonstrated despite limited imaging event statistics available in this measurement. Gamma-ray spectroscopy results were able to identify 232Th using prominent emissions at 239, 338, 583, and 911 keV. 244Cm was identified from emissions of 43, 99, and 153 keV. These results demonstrate the potential of organic glass imaging for nuclear nonproliferation or characterization efforts.

Lopez, Ricardo [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (↗

Homomorphic Encryption for Electrical Metering Aggregation: Protecting the Privacy of Building Tenants

Electrical meters are devices that measure consumer electricity usage. The data collected by these meters is necessary for utility billing and electrical grid management but can also be used to assess the environmental impact of buildings. Prior research has found that unprotected metering data could potentially be used to infer some information about the behaviors of building tenants by detecting changes in electricity usage. For example, a period of low electricity usage could suggest that the tenants are not in the building. As smart metering becomes more common, there is a growing need for data privacy protections for metering data that do not negatively impact the quality and availability of data used for energy management and billing applications. To identify potential solutions, we developed a Python-based data aggregation platform to analyze the potential efficacy of privacy-enhancing technologies for energy metering applications. This platform aggregates groups of metering sites into virtual buildings, which could potentially detach changes in electrical activity from individual tenants, making it more difficult to track the activity of a specific tenant. To further protect data during analysis, this project utilizes homomorphic encryption as part of its initial approach. Homomorphic encryption offers a means of protecting energy consumption data while permitting mathematical operations to be performed without the need to know the data contents. This allows for data to be processed into usable statistics without revealing energy consumption information. A series of homomorphic encryption libraries were evaluated to determine their applicability and limitations in the context of metering data. The use of these techniques may help to reassure consumers and encourage further adoption of smart grid infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ionizing Radiation Affects Gene Expression in Mouse Skin and Bone

Future long-duration space exploration beyond low earth orbit will increase human exposure to space radiation and microgravity conditions as well as associated risks to skeletal health. In animal studies, radiation exposure (greater than 1 Gy) is associated with pathological changes in bone structure, enhanced bone resorption, reduced bone formation and decreased bone mineral density, which can lead to skeletal fragility. Definitive measurements and detection of bone loss typically require large and specialized equipment which can make their application to long duration space missions logistically challenging. Towards the goal of developing non-invasive and less complicated monitoring methods to predict astronauts' health during spaceflight, we examined whether radiation induced gene expression changes in skin may be predictive of the responses of skeletal tissue to radiation exposure. We examined oxidative stress and growth arrest pathways in mouse skin and long bones by measuring gene expression levels via quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) after exposure to total body irradiation (IR). To investigate the effects of irradiation on gene expression, we used skin and femora (cortical shaft) from the following treatment groups: control (normally loaded, sham-irradiated), and IR (0.5 Gy 56Fe 600 MeV/n and 0.5 Gy 1H 150 MeV/n), euthanized at one and 11 days post-irradiation (IR). To determine the extent of bone loss, tibiae were harvested and cancellous microarchitecture in the proximal tibia quantified ex vivo using microcomputed tomography (microCT). Statistical analysis was performed using Student's t-test. At one day post-IR, expression of FGF18 in skin was significantly greater (3.8X) than sham-irradiated controls, but did not differ at 11 days post IR. Expression levels of other genes associated with antioxidant response (Nfe2l2, FoxO3 and Sod1) and the cell cycle (Trp53, Cdkn1a, Gadd45g) did not significantly differ between the control and IR groups at either time point. Radiation exposure resulted in a 27.0% increase in FGF18-positive hair follicles at one day post-IR and returned to basal levels at 11 days post-IR. A similar trend was observed from FGF18 gene expression analysis of skin. In bone (femora), there was an increase in the expression of the pro-osteoclastogenic cytokine, MCP-1, one day after IR compared to non-irradiated controls. FGF18 expression in skin and MCP- 1 expression in bone were found to be positively correlated (P less than 0.002, r=0.8779). Further, microcomputed tomography analysis of tibia from these animals showed reduced cancellous bone volume (-9.9%) at 11 days post- IR. These results suggest that measurements of early radiation induced changes in FGF18 gene expression in skin may have value for predicting subsequent loss of cancellous bone mass. Further research may lead to the development of a relatively simple diagnostic tool for bone loss, with the advantage that hair follicles and skin are relatively easy to acquire from human subjects.

space radiation↗

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗

Inland and Near-Shore Water Profiles Derived from the High-Altitude Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL)

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) on the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2) mission is a six beam, low energy, high repetition rate, 532-nanometer laser transmitter with photon counting detectors. Although designed primarily for detecting height changes in ice caps, sea ice, and vegetation, the polar-orbiting satellite will observe global surface water during its designed three-year life span, including inland waterbodies, coasts, and open oceans. In preparation for the mission, an ICESat-2 prototype, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), was built and flown on high-altitude aircraft experiments over a range of inland and near-shore targets. The purpose was to test the ATLAS concept and to provide a database for developing an algorithm that detects along track surface water height and light penetration under a range of atmospheric and water conditions. The current analysis examines the data sets of three MABEL transects observed from 20 kilometers above ground of coastal and inland waters conducted in 2012 and 2013. Transects ranged from about 2 to 12 kilometers in length and included the middle Chesapeake Bay, the near-shore Atlantic coast at Virginia Beach, and Lake Mead. Results indicate MABEL's high capability for retrieving surface water height statistics with a mean height precision ofapproximately 5-7 centimeters per 100-meter segment length. Profiles of attenuated subsurface backscatter, characterized using a Signal to Background Ratio written in Log10 base, or LSBR (sub 0), were observed over a range of 1.3 to 9.3 meters, depending on water clarity and atmospheric background. Results indicate that observable penetration depth, although primarily dependent on water properties, was greatest when the solar background rate was low. Near-shore bottom reflectance was detected only at the Lake Mead site down to a maximum of 10 meters under a clear night sky and low turbidity of approximately 1.6 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU). The overall results suggest that the feasibility of retrieving operational surface water height statistics from space-based photon counting systems such as ATLAS is very high for resolutions down to about 100 meters, even in partly cloudy conditions. The capability to observe subsurface backscatterprofiles is achievable but requires much longer transects of several hundreds of meters.

inland↗

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

On the effects of filtering on convective-core statistics

Analysis of convective events north of Australia during the equatorial Monsoon Experiment (EMEX) reinforces accumulating evidence that convective cores over the tropical ocean are weak, with small diameters and vertical velocities. Superposition of smaller-scale turbulence on the convective core signal could yield artificially small cores, and thus produce sampling bias by aircraft. To investigate this potential source of bias, a side-by-side analysis of filtered and unfiltered vertical velocity data was performed while investigating the EMEX convective cores. Data were collected by the NOAA P3 and NCAR Electra using filtered (Graham filter) and non-filtered cores. The effects of filtering vertical velocity data to identify updraft and downdraft cores were noticeable but smaller than expected. Updraft cores had a vertical velocity greater than 1 m/sec for at least 500 m, and downdraft cores were defined analogously so that the filter eliminated events with less than a 500 m apparent diameter. Median and 10 percent core diameters were increased by 20-25 percent at most, with larger increases at higher levels (fewer small events). The maximum vertical velocity was changed only by changing the individual events in the distribution, but changes were detectable. At the lower levels, where many small, weak cores are introduced by filtering, average vertical velocity for the updraft cores was lowered by up to around 10 percent. Mass flux was changed the least, since diameter and mean vertical velocity respond to filtering in opposite ways. The filtering procedure increased total mass flux slightly due to inclusion of more upward moving air into the sample.

Lemone, Margaret A.↗

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Estimates Derived from SSMI Microwave Remote Sensing and NLDN

Lightning observations are collected using ground-based and satellite-based sensors. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the United States uses multiple ground sensors to triangulate the electromagnetic signals created when lightning strikes the Earth's surface. Satellite-based lightning observations have been made from 1998 to present using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and from 1995 to 2000 using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) on the Microlab-1 satellite. Both LIS and OTD are staring imagers that detect lightning as momentary changes in an optical scene. Passive microwave remote sensing (85 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has also been used to quantify characteristics of thunderstorms related to lightning. Each lightning detection system has fundamental limitations. TRMM satellite coverage is limited to the tropics and subtropics between 38 deg N and 38 deg S, so lightning at the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres is not observed. The detection efficiency of NLDN sensors exceeds 95%, but the sensors are only located in the USA. Even if data from other ground-based lightning sensors (World Wide Lightning Location Network, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection, and Canadian Lightning Detection Network) were combined with TRMM and NLDN, there would be enormous spatial gaps in present-day coverage of lightning. In addition, a globally-complete time history of observed lightning activity is currently not available either, with network coverage and detection efficiencies varying through the years. Previous research using the TRMM LIS and Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that there is a statistically significant correlation between lightning flash rates and passive microwave brightness temperatures. The physical basis for this correlation emerges because lightning in a thunderstorm occurs where ice is first present in the cloud and electric charge separation occurs. These ice particles efficiently scatter the microwave radiation at the 85 and 37 GHz frequencies, thus leading to large brightness temperature depressions. Lightning flash rate is related to the total amount of ice passing through the convective updraft regions of thunderstorms. Confirmation of this relationship using TRMM LIS and TMI data, however, remains constrained to TRMM observational limits of the tropics and subtropics. Satellites from the Defense Meteorology Satellite Program (DMSP) have global coverage and are equipped with passive microwave imagers that, like TMI, observe brightness temperatures at 85 and 37 GHz. Unlike the TRMM satellite, however, DMSP satellites do not have a lightning sensor, and the DMSP microwave data has never been used to derive global lightning. In this presentation, a relationship between DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data and ground-based cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from NLDN is investigated to derive a spatially complete time history of CG lightning for the USA study area. This relationship is analogous to the established using TRMM LIS and TMI data. NLDN has the most spatially and temporally complete CG lightning data for the USA, and therefore provides the best opportunity to find geospatially coincident observations with SSMI sensors. The strongest thunderstorms generally have minimum 85 GHz Polarized Corrected brightness Temperatures (PCT) less than 150 K. Archived radar data was used to resolve the spatial extent of the individual storms. NLDN data for that storm spatial extent defined by radar data was used to calculate the CG flash rate for the storm. Similar to results using TRMM sensors, a linear model best explained the relationship between storm-specific CG flash rates and minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, the results in this study apply only to CG lightning. To extend the results to weaker storms, the probability of CG lightning (instead of the flash rate) was calculated for storms having 85 GHz PCT greater than 150 K. NLDN data was used to determine if a CG strike occurred for a storm. This probability of CG lightning was plotted as a function of minimum 85 GHz PCT and minimum 37 GHz PCT. These probabilities were used in conjunction with the linear model to estimate the CG flash rate for weaker storms with minimum 85 GHz PCTs greater than 150 K. Results from the investigation of CG lightning and passive microwave radiation signals agree with the previous research investigating total lightning and brightness temperature. Future work will take the established relationships and apply them to the decades of available DMSP data for the USA to derive a map of CG lightning flash rates. Validation of this method and uncertainty analysis will be done by comparing the derived maps of CG lightning flash rates against existing NLDN maps of CG lightning flash rates.

Winesett, Thomas↗

Relating Satellite-Based Contrail Detection to NWA Output

Contrail-induced cloud cover has been shown to be a significant factor in regional climate change over the United States of America. As air traffic increases, the potential for globally significant impacts also rises. To better understand and predict these potential climatic effects, it is necessary to develop models that can accurately represent contrail properties based on ambient atmospheric variables including temperature, relative humidity and winds. Several high-resolution numerical weather analyses (NWA) including the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) can provide the temperature, humidity and wind information necessary to diagnose contrail formation. One outstanding problem that must be addressed to achieve a realistic simulation of contrails is the large uncertainties in upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) in numerical weather analyses. Current numerical weather analyses tend to underestimate UTH due to large dry biases in the balloon soundings used to construct the analyses. To evaluate each of the models, we match several months of contrail properties derived from satellite and surface observations to the NWA-derived humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability. The relationships between several contrail properties (including optical depth and areal contrail coverage) and the NWA-derived statistics will be analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions widespread contrail outbreaks are favored.

Duda, David P.↗

Leveraging the Multiplatform Precipitation Feature Database of Combined Ground Radar and Satellite Lightning Observations for Convective Studies

The Multiplatform Precipitation Feature (MPF) database combines coincident observations of lightning from space with satellite- and ground-based radar data in a storm-based, feature-defined framework. The concept for the MPF database stems from the motivation to extend the scale and scope of investigations into the complex connections between ice precipitation, updrafts, and lightning in thunderstorms. The earliest iteration of the MPF database incorporates NASA International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor (ISS LIS) observations alongside the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and Validation Network (VN). Because of the specific role of the GPM VN in forming the first MPFs, this subset is referred to as the VNMPF database. The synthesis of these multi-scale and multi-resolution observations leveraged each platform’s unique insights into convective properties and processes, offering a more complete view of deep convection over the large viewing area afforded by satellite coverage. The VNMPF database established the feasibility and infrastructure to combine microphysical, kinematic, and lightning observations from multiple satellite- and ground-based platforms. Following this successful proof-of-concept, recent progress has expanded the MPF database to make use of coincident ISS LIS lightning observations and data from the operational Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network, where individual WSR-88D proximity facilitates vertical wind retrievals via dual-Doppler analysis. These database changes have expanded the scope of the dataset by removing the requirement for coincident GPM and ISS LIS overpasses. This increases the sample size dramatically and facilitates analysis of higher-resolution radar-derived properties. These advancements allow both storm-scale and unprecedented broad statistical analyses of deep convection from electrical, kinematic, and microphysical perspectives over the contiguous United States. This presentation outlines the construction of the new MPF database and introduces some preliminary analyses of the convection captured within it. Early results summarize relationships based on updraft characteristics ascertained from WSR-88D dual-Doppler three-dimensional wind retrievals, properties of ice microphysics gleaned from dual-polarization analyses, and electrical characteristics observed by the ISS LIS. The expanded scale and scope offered by more than five years of ISS LIS observations enable new insights into regional and seasonal variations in the microphysical, kinematic, and electrical relationships of convection. Analysis of the database highlights the potential for advancements in lightning meteorology made possible by combining large-scale spaceborne lightning detection and proven storm interrogation tools such as operational polarimetric Doppler radar.

Lightning↗