Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: FY 2022 Federal Fleet Trends and Data Quality [Slides]

This presentation presents a brief overview of the collection of information about the US government's fleet of motor vehicles using the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), discusses the makeup and operation of the vehicle fleet during FY 2022 and discusses quality of the submitted data. FAST is a web-based information system sponsored by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program to collect information about the US federal government's fleet of motor vehicles; FAST is developed, maintained, and supported by DOE's Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Homogenization of Elastic and Fracture Properties of a Sample Selective Laser Melting Material

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing technique commonly used in the rapid prototyping of components. The complexity of the SLM microstructure poses a unique challenge to deriving effective mechanical properties at different length scales. Representative volume elements (RVEs) are often used to homogenize the material properties of composites. Instead of RVEs, we use statistical volume elements (SVEs) to homogenize the elastic and fracture properties of the material. This relates the inherent variation of a material’s microstructure to the variation in its mechanical properties at different observation scales. The convergence to the RVE limit is examined from two perspectives: the stability of the mean value as the SVE size increases for the mean-based approach, and the tendency of the normalized variation in homogenized properties to zero as the SVE size increases for the variation-based approach. Fracture properties tend to make the RVE limit slower than do elastic properties from both perspectives. There are also differences between vertical (normal to printing plane) and horizontal (in-plane) properties. While the elastic properties tend to make the RVE limit faster for the horizontal direction, i.e., having a smaller variation and more stable mean value, the fracture properties exhibit the opposite effect. We attributed these differences to the geometry of the melt pools.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Photovoltaic Failures with Hidden Markov Modeling, an Unsupervised Statistical Approach

Failure detection methods are of significant interest for photovoltaic (PV) site operators to help reduce gaps between expected and observed energy generation. Current approaches for field-based fault detection, however, rely on multiple data inputs and can suffer from interpretability issues. In contrast, this work offers an unsupervised statistical approach that leverages hidden Markov models (HMM) to identify failures occurring at PV sites. Using performance index data from 104 sites across the United States, individual PV-HMM models are trained and evaluated for failure detection and transition probabilities. This analysis indicates that the trained PV-HMM models have the highest probability of remaining in their current state (87.1% to 93.5%), whereas the transition probability from normal to failure (6.5%) is lower than the transition from failure to normal (12.9%) states. A comparison of these patterns using both threshold levels and operations and maintenance (O&M) tickets indicate high precision rates of PV-HMMs (median = 82.4%) across all of the sites. Although additional work is needed to assess sensitivities, the PV-HMM methodology demonstrates significant potential for real-time failure detection as well as extensions into predictive maintenance capabilities for PV.

classification↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Characterization of Hot Jupiter Atmospheres Using Spitzer’s Secondary Eclipses

We report 78 secondary eclipse depths for a sample of 36 transiting hot Jupiters observed at 3.6 and 4.5 μm using the Spitzer Space Telescope. Our eclipse results for 27 of these planets are new, and include highly irradiated worlds such as KELT-7b, WASP-87b, WASP-76b, and WASP-64b, and important targets for James Webb Space Telescope such as WASP-62b. We find that WASP-62b has a slightly eccentric orbit (ecos ω=0.00614±0.00064), and we confirm the eccentricity of HAT-P-13b and WASP-14b. The remainder are individually consistent with circular orbits, but we find statistical evidence for eccentricity increasing with orbital period in our range from 1 to 5 days. Our day-side brightness temperatures for the planets yield information on albedo and heat redistribution, following Cowan & Agol (2011). Planets having maximum day-side temperatures exceeding ~2200 K are consistent with having zero albedo and a distribution of stellar irradiance uniformly over the day-side hemisphere. Our most intriguing result is that we detect a systematic difference between the emergent spectra of these hot Jupiters as compared to blackbodies. The ratio of observed brightness temperatures, Tb(4.5)/Tb(3.6), increases with equilibrium temperature by 100 ± 24 parts-per-million per Kelvin, over the entire temperature range in our sample (800–2500 K). No existing model predicts this trend over such a large range of temperature. We suggest that this may be due to a structural difference in the atmospheric temperature profiles of real planetary atmospheres as compared to models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Statistics of Extended Debris Disks Measured with Gaia and Planck

Thermal emission from debris disks around stars has been measured using targeted and resolved observations. We present an alternative likelihood-based approach in which temperature maps from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey at 857 and 545 GHz are analyzed in conjunction with stellar positions from Gaia to estimate the fraction of stars hosting disks and the thermal emission from the disks. The debris disks are not resolved (or even necessarily detected individually), but their statistical properties and the correlations with stellar properties are measured for several thousand stars. We compare our findings with higher sensitivity surveys of smaller samples of stars. For dimmer stars, in particular K and M dwarfs, we find that about 10% of stars within 80 pc have emission consistent with debris disks. We also report on 80 candidate disks, the majority of which are not previously identified. We have previously constrained the properties of Exo-Oort clouds using Planck data—with future CMB surveys, both components can be measured for different stellar types, providing a new avenue to study the outer parts of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistics of Wide Pre-main-sequence Binaries in the Orion OB1 Association

Statistics of low-mass pre-main-sequence binaries in the Orion OB1 association with separations ranging from 0."6 to 20" (220 to 7400 au at 370 pc) are studied using images from the VISTA Orion mini survey and astrometry from Gaia. The input sample based on the CVSO catalog contains 1137 stars of K and M spectral types (masses between 0.3 and 0.9 M ⊙ ), 1021 of which are considered to be association members. There are 135 physical binary companions to these stars with mass ratios above ~0.13. The average companion fraction is 0.09 ± 0.01 over 1.2 decades in separation, slightly less than, but still consistent with, the field. We found a difference between the Ori OB1a and OB1b groups, the latter being richer in binaries by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3. No overall dependence of the wide-binary frequency on the observed underlying stellar density is found, although in the Ori OB1a off-cloud population, these binaries seem to avoid dense clusters. The multiplicity rates in Ori OB1 and in sparse regions like Taurus differ significantly, hinting that binaries in the field may originate from a mixture of diverse populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events, with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic Clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky, including the Galactic plane, every few nights. The ZTF observes ~10 9 stars in the g and r bands and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. In this paper, we predict that the ZTF will observe ~1100 microlensing events in 3 yr of observing within 10° latitude of the Galactic plane, with ~500 events in the outer Galaxy (ℓ ≥ 10°). This yield increases to ~1400 (~800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, ~1800 (~900) events if the ZTF observes for a total of 5 yr, and ~2400 (~1300) events for a 5 yr survey with postprocessing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. The ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Treatise on Critical Biodiesel (B100) Quality Properties in the United States from 2004-2022

The quality of neat biodiesel (B100) is critical for ensuring biodiesel blends used in diesel-powered vehicles do not adversely impact engine performance. In the United States, B100 is required to meet ASTM International's purity and fuel property requirements in D6751, "Standard Specification for Biodiesel Fuel Blend Stock (B100) for Middle Distillate Fuels." Here we review the development of this standard for the different grades of B100. The BQ-9000 program, which currently covers over 90% of U.S. and Canadian production volumes, is also described. Engine and original equipment manufacturers have expressed a desire for credible, third-party data on values of various ASTM B100 properties in the commercial market to inform their efforts to address future emissions and durability requirements. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory published data from analysis and testing of monthly samples from BQ-9000 producers from calendar years 2017-2022, resulting in 300-500 data points (i.e., individual fuel samples) per year. These data and a statistical evaluation of properties including the average, mean, standard deviation, and 95th or 5th percentile are presented. The results show very consistent and high-quality B100 produced in this time frame. Additionally, we review the results of earlier quality surveys conducted in the United States between 2004 and 2011, revealing how quality has changed over time in response to ASTM standard revisions, as well as the significant overall improvement in quality for modern biodiesel production.

ASTM standard↗
DOE OSTI2021

FedFleet 2021: Federal Automotive Statistical Tool - Federal Vehicle Fleet Data Collection

This presentation presents a brief overview of the collection of information about the US government's fleet of motor vehicles using the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), discusses the makeup and operation of the vehicle fleet during FY 2020, discusses challenges associated with quality of the submitted data, and touches on future aspects of fleet data collection and reporting. FAST is a web-based information system sponsored by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program to collect information about the US federal government's fleet of motor vehicles; FAST is developed, maintained, and supported by DOE's Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FedFleet 2022: Federal Automotive Statistical Tool - FY 2021 Fleet Trends and Data Quality

This presentation presents a brief overview of the collection of information about the US government's fleet of motor vehicles using the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), discusses the makeup and operation of the vehicle fleet during FY 2021, discusses quality of the submitted data, and touches on future aspects of fleet data collection and reporting. FAST is a web-based information system sponsored by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program to collect information about the US federal government's fleet of motor vehicles; FAST is developed, maintained, and supported by DOE's Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Estimation of EV Driver Charging Behavior and Influential Factors

INL received data collected via telematics from battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and these vehicles were owned by retail customers who had entered into a telematics user agreement. The goal of analyzing these data was to develop mathematical models to characterize how different sets of BEV drivers use charging infrastructure at home and away from home (i.e., public charging) and quantify how various factors influence BEV drivers’ decision to charge and use available infrastructure. The data used in this analysis are unique because they provide real world BEV driving and charging behavior at the individual driving and parking event level. In this study we seek to leverage this data to quantify BEV charging and driving metrics to help inform models that predict quantities like the specific times when loads are imposed on the electrical grid due to BEV charging. Most models that have been developed to predict electrical grid load due to BEV charging, use simulations of BEV driving events and rely on assumptions such as every vehicle charges every night. Using a statistical modelling framework, we seek to investigate BEV charging behavior and quantitatively assess these common assumptions of BEV charging behavior.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the influence of particle distribution on force and torque statistics using hierarchical machine learning

An accurate representation of hydrodynamic force and torque experienced by every particle in a distribution can be obtained from particle resolved (PR) simulations. These unique quantities are influenced by the deterministic position of surrounding particles. However, systems simulated with this methodology are typically limited to particles due to the involved computational cost. This resource requirement is a major bottleneck in analyzing the effect of variations in particle distribution. Here, this article attempts to address this bottleneck by availing relatively inexpensive deep learning models. The surrogate models that we employ in this article use a physics‐based hierarchical framework and symmetry‐preserving neural networks to achieve robustness with limited training data. This article first performs additional generalizability tests on PR data of distinct distributions that are not involved in the training process. The models are then deployed on several different particle distributions. Impact of clustering and structure on the observed statistics are investigated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A2Cloud‐RF : A random forest based statistical framework to guide resource selection for high‐performance scientific computing on the cloud

Summary This article proposes a random‐forest based A2Cloud framework to match scientific applications with Cloud providers and their instances for high performance. The framework leverages four engines for this task: PERF engine, Cloud trace engine, A2Cloud‐ext engine, and the random forest classifier (RFC) engine. The PERF engine profiles the application to obtain performance characteristics, including the number of single‐precision (SP) floating‐point operations (FLOPs), double‐precision (DP) FLOPs, x87 operations, memory accesses, and disk accesses. The Cloud trace engine obtains the corresponding performance characteristics of the selected Cloud instances including: SP floating point operations per second (FLOPS), DP FLOPS, x87 operations per second, memory bandwidth, and disk bandwidth. The A2Cloud‐ext engine uses the application and Cloud instance characteristics to generate objective scores that represent the application‐to‐Cloud match. The RFC engine uses these objective scores to generate two types of random forests to assist users with rapid analysis: application‐specific random forests (ARF) and application‐class based random forests. The ARF consider only the input application's characteristics to generate a random forest and provide numerical ratings to the selected Cloud instances. To generate the application‐class based random forests, the RFC engine downloads the application profiles and scores of previously tested applications that perform similar to the input application. Using these data, the RFC engine creates a random forest for instance recommendation. We exhaustively test this framework using eight real‐world applications across 12 instances from different Cloud providers. Our tests show significant statistical agreement between the instance ratings given by the framework and the ratings obtained via actual Cloud executions.

Samuel, David↗
DOE OSTI2024

Full‐dimensional coupled‐channel statistical approach to atom‐triatom systems and applications to H/D + O 3 reaction

Abstract The statistical quantum model (SQM), which assumes that the reactivity is controlled by entrance/exit channel quantum capture probabilities, is well suited for chemical reactions with a long‐lived intermediate complex. In this work, a time‐independent coupled‐channel implementation of the SQM approach is developed for atom‐triatom systems in full dimensionality. As SQM treats the capture dynamics quantum mechanically, it is capable of handling quantum effects such as tunneling. A detailed study of the H/D + O 3 capture dynamics was performed by applying the newly developed SQM method on an accurate global potential energy surface. Agreement with previous ring polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) results on the same potential energy surface is excellent except for very low temperatures. The SQM results are also in reasonably good agreement with available experimental rate coefficients. The strong H/D kinetic isotope effect underscores the dominant role of quantum tunneling under an entrance channel barrier at low temperatures.

Yang, Dongzheng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated reaction kinetics and network exploration (Arkane): A statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, transition state theory, and master equation software

The open-source statistical mechanics software described here, Arkane–Automated Reaction Kinetics and Network Exploration–facilitates computations of thermodynamic properties of chemical species, high-pressure limit reaction rate coefficients, and pressure-dependent rate coefficient over multi-well molecular potential energy surfaces (PES) including the effects of collisional energy transfer on phenomenological kinetics. Arkane can use estimates to fill in information for molecules or reactions where quantum chemistry information is missing. The software solves the internal energy master equation for complex unimolecular reaction systems. Inputs to the software include converged electronic structure computations performed by the user using a variety of supported software packages (Gaussian, Molpro, Orca, TeraChem, Q-Chem, Psi4). The software outputs high-pressure limit rate coefficients and pressure-dependent phenomenological rate coefficients, as well as computed thermodynamic properties (enthalpy, entropy, and constant pressure heat capacity) with added energy corrections. Some of the key features of Arkane include treatment of 1D, 2D or ND hindered internal rotation modes, treatment of free internal rotation modes, quantum tunneling effect consideration, transition state theory (TST) and Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus (RRKM) rate coefficient computations, master equation solution with four implemented methods, inverse-Laplace transform of high-pressure limit rate coefficients into the energy domain, energy corrections based on bond-additivity or isodesmic reactions, automated and efficient PES exploration, and PES sensitivity analysis. The present work describes the design of Arkane, how it should be used, and refers to the theory that it employs. Arkane is distributed via the RMG-Py software suite (https://github.com/ReactionMechanismGenerator/RMG-Py).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Complexity of Quantum Learning

Abstract Learning problems involve settings in which an algorithm has to make decisions based on data, and possibly side information such as expert knowledge. This study has two main goals. First, it reviews and generalizes different results on the data and model complexity of quantum learning, where the data and/or the algorithm can be quantum, focusing on information‐theoretic techniques. Second, it introduces the notion of copy complexity, which quantifies the number of copies of a quantum state required to achieve a target accuracy level. Copy complexity arises from the destructive nature of quantum measurements, which irreversibly alter the state to be processed, limiting the information that can be extracted about quantum data. As a result, empirical risk minimization is generally inapplicable. The paper presents novel results on the copy complexity for both training and testing. To make the paper self‐contained and approachable by different research communities, an extensive background material is provided on classical results from statistical learning theory, as well as on the distinguishability of quantum states. Throughout, the differences between quantum and classical learning are highlighted by addressing both supervised and unsupervised learning, and extensive pointers are provided to the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical significance of the sterile-neutrino hypothesis in the context of reactor and gallium data

We evaluate the statistical significance of the 3+1 sterile-neutrino hypothesis using $v_e$ and $\bar{v}_e$ disappearance data from reactor, solar and gallium radioactive source experiments. Concerning the latter, we investigate the implications of the recent BEST results. For reactor data we focus on relative measurements independent of flux predictions. For the problem at hand, the usual χ 2 -approximation to hypothesis testing based on Wilks’ theorem has been shown in the literature to be inaccurate. We therefore present results based on Monte Carlo simulations, and find that this typically reduces the significance by roughly 1σ with respect to the naïve expectation. We find no significant indication in favor of sterile-neutrino oscillations from reactor data. On the other hand, gallium data (dominated by the BEST result) show more than 5σ of evidence supporting the sterile-neutrino hypothesis, favoring oscillation parameters in agreement with constraints from reactor data. This explanation is, however, in significant tension (~3 σ) with solar neutrino experiments. In order to assess the robustness of the signal for gallium experiments we present a discussion of the impact of cross-section uncertainties on the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical analysis of the COHERENT data and applications to new physics

The observation of coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering (CEvNS) by the COHERENT collaboration in 2017 has opened a new window to both test Standard Model predictions at relatively low energies and probe new physics scenarios. Our investigations show, however, that a careful treatment of the statistical methods used to analyze the data is essential to derive correct constraints and bounds on new physics parameters. In this manuscript we perform a detailed analysis of the publicly available COHERENT CsI data making use of all available background data. We point out that Wilks’ theorem is not fulfilled in general and a calculation of the confidence regions via Monte Carlo simulations following a Feldman-Cousins procedure is necessary. As an example for the necessity of this approach to test new physics scenarios we quantify the allowed ranges for several scenarios with neutrino non-standard interactions. Furthermore, we provide accompanying code to enable an easy implementation of other new physics scenarios as well as data files of our results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗