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At least 307 records · Page 17

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improved Representation of the Global Dust Cycle Using Observational Constraints on Dust Properties and Abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth’s atmosphere, atmospheric models 25 struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused byfundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, 30 extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global 35 basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current 40 model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

aerosols, dust↗

Fully Automated Detection of Cloud and Aerosol Layers in the CALIPSO Lidar Measurements

Accurate knowledge of the vertical and horizontal extent of clouds and aerosols in the earth s atmosphere is critical in assessing the planet s radiation budget and for advancing human understanding of climate change issues. To retrieve this fundamental information from the elastic backscatter lidar data acquired during the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission, a selective, iterated boundary location (SIBYL) algorithm has been developed and deployed. SIBYL accomplishes its goals by integrating an adaptive context-sensitive profile scanner into an iterated multiresolution spatial averaging scheme. This paper provides an in-depth overview of the architecture and performance of the SIBYL algorithm. It begins with a brief review of the theory of target detection in noise-contaminated signals, and an enumeration of the practical constraints levied on the retrieval scheme by the design of the lidar hardware, the geometry of a space-based remote sensing platform, and the spatial variability of the measurement targets. Detailed descriptions are then provided for both the adaptive threshold algorithm used to detect features of interest within individual lidar profiles and the fully automated multiresolution averaging engine within which this profile scanner functions. The resulting fusion of profile scanner and averaging engine is specifically designed to optimize the trade-offs between the widely varying signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements and the disparate spatial resolutions of the detection targets. Throughout the paper, specific algorithm performance details are illustrated using examples drawn from the existing CALIPSO dataset. Overall performance is established by comparisons to existing layer height distributions obtained by other airborne and space-based lidars.

Vaughan, Mark A.↗

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the isotropy of the X-ray background radiation.

The spatial fluctuations expected for various models of the X-ray background radiation are examined. The constraints that observations place on the source distribution and radiation mechanisms are then presented. Most models are at present consistent with the lack of observed small scale anisotropy. Future measurements of the beam-to-beam fluctuations could offer a positive test of the inverse Compton explanation for the origin of the X-ray background radiation.

Brecher, K.↗

Laser velocimeter measurement of developing and periodic flows

The transmitting-receiving lens system of a two-component backscatter laser-velocimeter optical package currently in operation is discussed. It is basically a Galilean-type telescope which provides for spatial translation of the focal volume along the optical axis, but it also has certain optical constraints which are discussed. This scanning feature of the unit has been used with spectrum analyzer processing for the measurement of (1) trailing vortices in a wind tunnel and (2) a developing (decaying) vortex that was generated by towing a wing model through a water towing tank. The optical system has also been interfaced with period counting electronics and has been applied to the periodic flow generated by a model helicopter rotor. Results are presented and the techniques of data acquisition and the 'strobing' of the processor are discussed.

Orloff, K. L.↗

The role of spicules in hetaing the solar atmosphere Implications of EUV observations

Although spicules hae been obseved for many years, very little is known about their role in the transport of mass and energy between the chromosphere and the higher layers of the atmospere. Athay and Holzer (1982) demonstrated that the rise and fall of spicular material can supply the thermal energy required for heating the upper chromosphere, transition, and possibly corona. The proposed mechanism depends upon assumptions about the fate of spicules after they disappear from view in the visual spectrum where observations are limited to spectral lines formed at chromospheric temperatures. The present investigation is concerned with an analysis of meaurements of the spatial and temporal variations of EUV emission near the solar limb. The obtained results place empirical constraints on the fate of spicules after they disappear from view in the visible spectrum and thereby place constraints on their role in the transport of mass and energy between the chromosphere and corona.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

System and Method for Measuring the Transfer Function of a Guided Wave Device

A method/system are provided for measuring the NxN scalar transfer function elements for an N-port guided wave device. Optical energy of a selected wavelength is generated at a source and directed along N reference optical paths having N reference path lengths. Each reference optical path terminates in one of N detectors such that N reference signals are produced at the N detectors. The reference signals are indicative of amplitude, phase and frequency of the optical energy carried along the N reference optical paths. The optical energy from the source is also directed to the N-ports of the guided wave device and then on to each of the N detectors such that N measurement optical paths are defined between the source and each of the N detectors. A portion of the optical energy is modified in terms of at least one of the amplitude and phase to produce N modified signals at each of the N detectors. At each of the N detectors, each of the N modified signals is combined with a corresponding one of the N reference signals to produce corresponding N combined signals at each of the N detectors. A total of N(sup 2) measurement signals are generated by the N detectors. Each of the N(sup 2) measurement signals is sampled at a wave number increment (Delta)k so that N(sup 2) sampled signals are produced. The NxN transfer function elements are generated using the N(sup 2) sampled signals. Reference and measurement path length constraints are defined such that the N combined signals at each of the N detectors are spatially separated from one another in the time domain.

Mark E Froggatt↗

Clouds, Hazes, and the Stratospheric Methane Abundance in Neptune

Analysis of high-spatial resolution methane band and continuum imagery of Neptune's relatively homogeneous Equatorial Region yields significant constraints on (1) the stratospheric gaseous methane mixing ratio, (2) the column abundances and optical properties of stratospheric and tropospheric hydrocarbon hazes, and (3) the wavelength-dependent single-scattering albedo of the 3-bar opaque cloud.

Neptune↗

Erasing the Variable: Empirical Foreground Discovery for Global 21 cm Spectrum Experiments

Spectral measurements of the 21 cm monopole background have the promise of revealing the bulk energetic properties and ionization state of our universe from z approx. 6 − 30. Synchrotron foregrounds are orders of magnitude larger than the cosmological signal, and are the principal challenge faced by these experiments. While synchrotron radiation is thought to be spectrally smooth and described by relatively few degrees of freedom, the instrumental response to bright foregrounds may be much more complex. To deal with such complexities, we develop an approach that discovers contaminated spectral modes using spatial fluctuations of the measured data. This approach exploits the fact that foregrounds vary across the sky while the signal does not. The discovered modes are projected out of each line-of-sight of a data cube. An angular weighting then optimizes the cosmological signal amplitude estimate by giving preference to lower-noise regions. Using this method, we show that it is essential for the passband to be stable to at least approx. 10(exp −4). In contrast, the constraints on the spectral smoothness of the absolute calibration are mainly aesthetic if one is able to take advantage of spatial information. To the extent it is understood, controlling polarization to intensity leakage at the approx. 10(exp −2) level will also be essential to rejecting Faraday rotation of the polarized synchrotron emission. Subject headings: dark ages, reionization, first stars - methods: data analysis - methods: statistical

Variable↗

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial Coverage Planning and Optimization for Planetary Exploration

We are developing onboard planning and scheduling technology to enable in situ robotic explorers, such as rovers and aerobots, to more effectively assist scientists in planetary exploration. In our current work, we are focusing on situations in which the robot is exploring large geographical features such as craters, channels or regional boundaries. In to develop valid and high quality plans, the robot must take into account a range of scientific and engineering constraints and preferences. We have developed a system that incorporates multiobjective optimization and planning allowing the robot to generate high quality mission operations plans that respect resource limitations and mission constraints while attempting to maximize science and engineering objectives. An important scientific objective for the exploration of geological features is selecting observations that spatially cover an area of interest. We have developed a metric to enable an in situ explorer to reason about and track the spatial coverage quality of a plan. We describe this technique and show how it is combined in the overall multiobjective optimization and planning algorithm.

autonomy↗

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How fast can protons decay?

Current laboratory bounds imply that protons are extremely long-lived. However, this conclusion may not hold for all time and in all of space. We find that the proton lifetime can be ∼ 15 orders of magnitude shorter in the relatively recent past on Earth or at the present time elsewhere in the Milky Way. A number of terrestrial and astrophysical constraints are examined and potential signals are outlined. We also sketch possible models that could lead to spatial or temporal variations in the proton lifetime. A positive signal could be compelling evidence for a new long range force of nature, with important implications for the limitations of fundamental inferences based solely on laboratory measurements. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Model of human visual-motion sensing

A model of how humans sense the velocity of moving images is proposed. The model exploits constraints provided by human psychophysics, notably that motion-sensing elements appear tuned for two-dimensional spatial frequency, and by the frequency spectrum of a moving image, namely, that its support lies in the plane in which the temporal frequency equals the dot product of the spatial frequency and the image velocity. The first stage of the model is a set of spatial-frequency-tuned, direction-selective linear sensors. The temporal frequency of the response of each sensor is shown to encode the component of the image velocity in the sensor direction. At the second stage, these components are resolved in order to measure the velocity of image motion at each of a number of spatial locations and spatial frequencies. The model has been applied to several illustrative examples, including apparent motion, coherent gratings, and natural image sequences. The model agrees qualitatively with human perception.

Watson, A. B.↗

Embedded mesh solution of the 2-D Euler equations - Evaluation of interface formulations

Solution of the steady 2-D Euler equations using mesh embedding, or local grid refinement, with a cell-centered finite volume scheme is investigated. Embedded regions which are topologically similar to the global grid are considered. An isoenergetic model for the governing equations is used in Jameson's finite volume multistage scheme with modifications to the boundary conditions and smoothing. A detailed study of the embedding interface flux and smoothing formulations is conducted. Taylor expansion analysis reveals that local second order spatial accuracy is not possible if a conservative interface flux formulation is used. The analysis also gives constraints for local first order accuracy. An energy stability analysis indicates that downwind weighting of interface fluxes causes local instabilities. Analysis shows that conservative interface smoothing formulations must have a locally convective component, but that correct interface formulations allow globally dissipative smoothing. Embedded mesh solutions obtained with this scheme are presented for a transonic airfoil. They show that if embedding interfaces are close to the shocks, then small modifications in the interface location can have large effects on converge and solution accuracy.

Allmaras, S. R.↗

Quaoar: New, Longitudinaly Resolved, Spectroscopic Characterization of Its Surface

(50000) Quaoar, one of the largest Trans-neptunian objects, is comparable in size to Pluto's moon Charon. However, while Charon's surface is rich almost exclusively in H2O ice, Quaoar's surface characterized by ices of CH4, N2, as well as C2H6, a product of irradiation of CH4 (Dalle Ore et al. 2009). Because of its distance from the Sun, Quaoar is expected to have preserved, to a degree, its original composition, however, its relatively small size did not make it a prime candidate for presence of volatile ices in the study by Schaller and Brown (2007). Furthermore, based on the Brown et al. (2011) study (Brown, Schaller, & Fraser, 2011. A Hypothesis for the Color Diversity of the Kuiper Belt. ApJL, 739, L60) its red coloration points to CH3OH as the ice which, when irradiated, might have produced the red material. We present new visible to near-infrared (0.3-2.48 micrometers) spectro-photometric data obtained with the XSHOOTER (Vernet et al. 2011, A&A, 536A, 105 ) instrument at the VLT-ESO facility at four different longitudes on the surface of Quaoar. The data are complemented by previously published photometric observations obtained in the near-infrared (3.6, 4.5 micrometers) with the Spitzer Space Telescope, which provide an extra set of constraints in the model calculation process in spite of the different observing times that preclude establishing the spatial consistency between the two sets. For each of the four spectra we perform spectral modeling of the entire wavelength range -from 0.3 to 4.5 micrometers- by means of a code based on the Shkuratov radiative transfer formulation of the slab model. We obtain spatially resolved compositional information for the surface of Quaoar supporting the presence of CH4 and C2H6, as previously reported, along with evidence for N2 and NH3OH. The albedo at the two Spitzer bands indicates the likely presence of CO and CO2. CH3OH, predicted on the basis of Quaoar's coloration (Brown et al. 2011), is not found at any of the four longitudes, implying that the presence of this ice is a sufficient, but not necessary condition for reddening of TNO surfaces. Other ices, in particular CH4 (Brunetto et al. 2006), have been shown to be plausible precursors for reddening of TNO surfaces.

Ices↗