Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “solar prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Design and analysis considerations for deployment mechanisms in a space environment

On the second flight of the INTELSAT V spacecraft the time required for successful deployment of the north solar array was longer than originally predicted. The south solar array deployed as predicted. As a result of the difference in deployment times a series of experiments was conducted to locate the cause of the difference. Deployment rate sensitivity to hinge friction and temperature levels was investigated. A digital computer simulation of the deployment was created to evaluate the effects of parameter changes on deployment. Hinge design was optimized for nominal solar array deployment time for future INTELSAT V satellites. The nominal deployment times of both solar arrays on the third flight of INTELSAT V confirms the validity of the simulation and design optimization.

Vorlicek, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar cycle variation of thermospheric nitric oxide at solstice

A coupled, two-dimensional, chemical-diffusive model of the thermosphere is used to study the role of solar activity in the global distribution of nitric oxide. The model calculates self-consistently the zonally averaged temperature, circulation, and composition for solstice under solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. A decrease of the NO density by a factor of three to four in the E region is predicted from solar maximum to solar minimum. It is found that the main features of the overall morphology and the changes induced by the solar cycle are well reproduced in the model, although some details are not satisfactorily predicted. The sensitivity of the NO distribution to eddy transport and to the quenching of metastable N(2D) atoms by atomic oxygen is also described.

Gerard, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Predicting Arrival Of Protons Emitted In Solar Flares

Visual Utility for Localization of Corona Accelerated Nuclei (VULCAN) computer program provides both advance warnings and insight for post-event analyses of effects of solar flares. Using measurements of peak fluxes, times of detection, flare location, solar wind velocities, and x-ray emissions from Sun, as electronically sent by NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration), VULCAN predicts resulting intensities of proton fluxes at various user-chosen points (spacecraft or planets) of solar system. Also predicts times of onset of fluxes of protons and peak values of fluxes.

Spagnuolo, John N., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2007

New Observations of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field from the Voyager Spacecraft

We review recent observations of variations of the heliospheric magnetic field B(t) made by Voyager 1 and 2 (V1 and V2), and we discuss the boundary conditions needed for models to explain the observations. Usually, observations from a spacecraft close to the Sun, such as ACE, WIND or Ulysses are used as input to a time-dependent model. Generally, the predicted profile B(t) can be compared directly with the observed profile only when either V1 or V2 is approximately radially aligned with a near-Sun spacecraft; this happens rarely and only for a brief time interval. The Bastille Day events illustrate this situation. In the absence of radial alignment of the spacecraft it is possible to predict the development of a global structure (a GMIR) with data from ACE or WIND, if they obtain a representative sample the flows that merge to form a GMIR. When latitudinal gradients are small and when there is statistical homogeneity in the azimuthal direction, it is possible to predict the statistical properties of the large-scale fluctuations of B(t) observed by V1 or V2 during a year or so. We illustrate this situation with observations from the recent solar maximum and the declining phase of the solar cycle. Predictions of detailed observations made by V1 and V2 under general conditions (e.g., when there is a large latitudinal gradient) require boundary conditions as a function of time on a surface, such as a Sun-centered sphere with a radius of 1 AU. These conditions can only be provided by global solar observations. We suggest the feasibility of such an approach, using V2 observations for 2005 and 2006. The prediction of observations in the heliosheath requires the solution of the 3-D boundary problem for the supersonic solar wind and propagation of solar wind through the termination shock into the heliosphere. The properties of B(t) observed in the heliosheath have not yet been predicted.

Burlaga, Leonard F.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Preliminary study of creep thresholds and thermomechanical response in Haynes 188 at temperatures in the range 649 to 871 C

The following conclusions were drawn from this study of creep thresholds and thermomechanical response: (1) creep threshold can be determined using the latest electrohydraulic test equipment, providing that test durations are short and relatively large accumulations of creep strain are used in defining the threshold; (2) significant creep strains were measured under monotonic loading as stress levels as low as 4 ksi at temperatures predicted for solar receiver service; and (3) the material exhibited creep ratchetting during simulated service cycles, a result not predicted by analysis using current constitutive models for Haynes 188.

Ellis, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Sun Series program for the REEDA System

Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.

Shankle, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Skylab orbital lifetime prediction and decay analysis

A record (from preflight planning to earth impact) of skylab's orbital lifetime predictions, its actual decay and analysis are presented. Skylab provided a unique opportunity to develop, confirm and check out procedures and computer programs used for predicting lifetime and reentry. It provided verification of aerodynamic environment which was predicted for several aerodynamic configurations. It also provided data on the density model's reaction to rapidly changing solar flux over relatively short time periods. The effects of solar flux (and the uncertainty in the solar flux predictions) on orbital lifetime are discussed.

Dreher, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Termination of the solar wind in the hot, partially ionized interstellar medium

Theoretical foundations for understanding the problem of the termination of the solar wind are reexamined in the light of most recent findings concerning the states of the solar wind and the local interstellar medium. The investigation suggests that a simple extention of Parker's (1961) analytical model provides a useful approximate description of the combined solar wind, interstellar wind plasma flowfield under conditions presently thought to occur. A linear perturbation solution exhibiting both the effects of photoionization and charge exchange is obtained for the supersonic solar wind. A numerical algorithm is described for computing moments of the non-equilibrium hydrogen distribution function and associated source terms for the MHD equations. Computed using the algorithm in conjunction with the extended Parker solution to approximate the plasma flowfield, profiles of hydrogen number density are given in the solar wind along the upstream and downstream axes of flow with respect to the direction of the interstellar wind. Predictions of solar Lyman-alpha backscatter intensities to be observed at 1 a.u. have been computed, in turn, from a set of such hydrogen number density profiles varied over assumed conditions of the interstellar wind.

Lombard, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

When and where to look to observe major solar flares

When and where to look is an important issue to observers planning to observe major solar flares. Prediction of major flares is also important because they influence the Earth's environment. Techniques for utilizing recently discovered solar hot spots and a solar activity periodicity of about 154 days in determining when and where to look to catch major flares are discussed.

Bai, T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Responses of the Jovian Atmosphere to Cometary Particles and Photon Impacts

Detailed calculations were performed of the deposition of energetic oxygen ions into the atmosphere of Jupiter. A Monte Carlo simulation was used. Similar processes occur in other astrophysical environments to which our methods can be applied. In particular Cravens has suggested that the X-ray emissions seen from comets are due to transitions from excited states following capture of electrons by solar wind ions colliding with the atmosphere of the comet. Alternative proposals have been advanced for the source of the cometary X-rays. We have carried out a study of the spectra and have shown that with the spectral resolution of about 20 eV the different excitation mechanisms can be distinguished. The response of the two components of the solar wind predict a spectrum that is consistent with the cometary observations. X-rays from the comets arise from the slow solar wind.

Dalgarno, Alex↗
NASA NTRS1974

Theoretical predictions of latitude dependencies in the solar wind

Results are presented which were obtained with the Winge-Coleman model for theoretical predictions of latitudinal dependencies in the solar wind. A first-order expansion is described which allows analysis of first-order latitudinal variations in the coronal boundary conditions and results in a second-order partial differential equation for the perturbation stream function. Latitudinal dependencies are analytically separated out in the form of Legendre polynomials and their derivative, and are reduced to the solution of radial differential equations. This analysis is shown to supply an estimate of how large the coronal variation in latitude must be to produce an 11 km/sec/deg gradient in the radial velocity of the solar wind, assuming steady-state processes.

Winge, C. R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Predicting the Reliability of Solar-Cell Interconnections

The reduction of life expectancy by thermal cycling calculated during design. Connections between solar cells critical parts of solarcell arrays generating electric power. Reliability affects life expectancy of modules, panels, and arrays. Used to predict stress-cycle lifetimes of such structures as arches, walkways, cylindrical ribbing of aircraft fuselages and submarine hulls, and pipeline expansion loops. Testing costs reduced by about 90 percent.

Mon, G. R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗
NASA NTRS1977

Project STOP (Spectral Thermal Optimization Program)

The spectral thermal optimization of solar cell configurations for various solar panel applications is considered. The method of optimization depends upon varying the solar cell configuration's optical characteristics to minimize panel temperatures, maximize power output and decrease the power delta from beginning of life to end of life. Four areas of primary investigation are: (1) testing and evaluation of ultraviolet resistant coverslide adhesives, primarily FEP as an adhesive; (2) examination of solar cell absolute spectral response and corresponding cell manufacturing processes that affect it; (3) experimental work with solar cell manufacturing processes that vary cell reflectance (solar absorptance); and (4) experimental and theoretical studies with various coverslide filter designs, mainly a red rejection filter. The Hughes' solar array prediction program has been modified to aid in evaluating the effect of each of the above four areas on the output of a solar panel in orbit.

Goldhammer, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Time Series of Magnetic Field Parameters Extracted from Merged Space-Weather MDI/HMI Active Region Patches as Potential Tool for Solar Flare Forecasting

Space-Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARPs) and Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs) are two recently developed data products, which have been used for solar flare prediction studies. The present work is an effort to expand the application of SMARP and SHARP summary heliomagnetic parameters to the forecasting of solar flares. A new data product was derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP and SHARP summary parameter data series, which were further converted into two-dimensional arrays by selecting time slices corresponding to R-value maxima, where R-value is a measure of the unsigned magnetic flux near polarity inversion lines. The resulting combined MDI-HMI time series currently span the period between April 4, 1996 and December 13, 2022, and can be extended to a more recent date, providing an opportunity to correlate and compare them with other solar activity parameters, such as the daily solar flare index, which is computed as a sum of the product of GOES X-ray flare magnitude and flare duration, for all M- and X-class flares during a day. Preliminary results demonstrate a significant overall correlation, with Pearson coefficients between 0.339 and 0.627. In addition, an oscillating pattern is seen in the daily-averaged sliding-window correlation coefficient. Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a leader-follower dynamic exists in some parameters, especially R-value, where they lead the flare index by at least several days, which may have potential for further application in space weather forecasting.

Heliophysics↗