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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections that Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well -observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA -ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. In contrast to Taktakishvili et al., where we started the analysis by looking for clear CME signatures in the data and then proceeded to model the interplanetary consequences at 1 AU, in the present paper we start by generating a list of observed geomagnetic storm events and then work our way back to remote solar observations and carry out the corresponding CME modeling. The approach used in this study is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We analyzed 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA-ENLIL cone model. Recently, Pulkkinen et al. developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations are compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA -ENLIL model combination with coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of 'geoeffective" CME events as well.

Taktakishvili, A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Ozone Vertical Profile Satellite Measurements by S-NPP OMPS, Aura MLS, and Sentinel-5P TROPOMI

NASA has been monitoring ozone variations from space since 1970 with the launch of the Backscatter Ultraviolet instrument (BUV) on Nimbus- 4. Ozone in the Earth’s stratosphere and troposphere plays a crucial role in protecting life from harmful solar UV radiation, and it also influences Earth’s climate. The vertical distribution of ozone is used in modeling forecasts, verifying model analysis and simulations, and improving the measurement of tropospheric ozone that is a toxic constituent of air pollution. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura spacecraft has been monitoring long-term continuous stratosphere ozone vertical behaviors since 2004. The Ozone Mapper Profile Suite (OMPS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) was launched in 2011. Two of its three instruments, the Limb Profiler (LP) and the Nadir Profiler (NP), are designed to map ozone profiles with full global coverage (~6 days for NP) and a high level of vertical accuracy (1-km reporting record for LP) in the stratosphere and upper troposphere. The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P), launched in 2017, aims to retrieve ozone profiles in both the troposphere and up to top-of-atmosphere (TOA) by using UV radiation measurements in a spectral range of 270-320 nm. S5P/TROPOMI ozone profile products are planned to become available in April 2020. This presentation will concentrate on satellite ozone vertical profile data collections from OMPS and MLS which are archived at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). TROPOMI ozone vertical profiles for the troposphere and to top-of-atmosphere will become available at NASA GES DISC in 2020. The presentation briefly explores their potential complementary usability in determining three-dimensional ozone global distributions with high temporal and spatial resolutions.

Zeng, Jian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods

The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.

Yihua Zheng↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Energetic Particles in the Inner Heliosphere: Status and Open Questions

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to both solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and they present energy spectra that span from a few keV up to several GeV. A wealth of observations from widely distributed spacecraft have revealed that SEPs fill very broad regions of the heliosphere, often all around the Sun. High energy SEPs can sometimes be energetic enough to penetrate all the way down to the surface of the Earth and thus be recorded on the ground as ground level enhancements (GLEs). The conditions of the radiation environment are currently unpredictable due to an as-yet incomplete understanding of solar eruptions and their corresponding relation to SEP events. This is because the complex nature and the interplay of the injection, acceleration and transport processes undergone by the SEPs in the solar corona and the interplanetary space prevent us from establishing an accurate understanding (based on observations and modelling). In this work, we review the current status of knowledge on SEPs, focusing on GLEs and multi-spacecraft events. We extensively discuss the forecasting and nowcasting efforts of SEPs, dividing these into three categories. Finally, we report on the current open questions and the possible direction of future research efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Solar eruptions and their space weather impact’.

Anastasiadis, Anastasios↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Table-Driven Control Method to Meet Continuous, Near-Real-Time Observation Requirements for the Solar X-Ray Imager

The design of the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) presents an unusual scenario for controlling the observing sequences. The SXI is an operational instrument, designed not primarily for scientific research, but for providing "operational" data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to forecast the near-term space weather. To this end, a sequence of images selected to cover the full dynamic range of the sun will be executed routinely. As the dynamics of the sun have differing temporal cadences, the frequency of various images will differ. These images must be routinely received at the forecast center in near real-time, 24-hours a day, with a minimum of interruptions. While these requirements clearly lead to a 'routine patrol' of images, the parameters for each do not form a static set. The dynamics of the sun will change with the I 1-year solar cycle. The performance of the imaging will vary with on-orbit conditions and time. And while the SXI is not intended as a research instrument, forecasting techniques may change with time, which in turn will further alter the imaging sequences. An additional complication is the highly restricted commanding window, and a very slow commanding rate. To fulfill these requirements, the SXI was designed to utilize a table-driven approach. Sequences are defined using structured loops, with nested repetitions and delays. These sequences reference combinations of imaging parameters which in turn reference tables of parameters than can be loaded by ground commands. Multiple sequences can be built and stored in preparation for execution when determined appropriate by the NOAA forecasters. The result is an approach that can be used to provide a flexible, yet autonomous SXI capable of meeting both arbitrary forecasting requirements, and operating within the commanding constraints.

Wallace, Shawn↗
NASA NTRS2007

Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

Fok, Mei-Ching↗
NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station (ISS) Plasma Contactor Unit (PCU) Utilization Plan Assessment Update

The International Space Station (ISS) vehicle undergoes spacecraft charging as it interacts with Earth's ionosphere and magnetic field. The interaction can result in a large potential difference developing between the ISS metal chassis and the local ionosphere plasma environment. If an astronaut conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) is exposed to the potential difference, then a possible electrical shock hazard arises. The control of this hazard was addressed by a number of documents within the ISS Program (ISSP) including Catastrophic Safety Hazard for Astronauts on EVA (ISS-EVA-312-4A_revE). The safety hazard identified the risk for an astronaut to experience an electrical shock in the event an arc was generated on an extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) surface. A catastrophic safety hazard, by the ISS requirements, necessitates mitigation by a two-fault tolerant system of hazard controls. Traditionally, the plasma contactor units (PCUs) on the ISS have been used to limit the charging and serve as a "ground strap" between the ISS structure and the surrounding ionospheric plasma. In 2009, a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) team evaluated the PCU utilization plan (NESC Request #07-054-E) with the objective to assess whether leaving PCUs off during non-EVA time periods presented risk to the ISS through assembly completion. For this study, in situ measurements of ISS charging, covering the installation of three of the four photovoltaic arrays, and laboratory testing results provided key data to underpin the assessment. The conclusion stated, "there appears to be no significant risk of damage to critical equipment nor excessive ISS thermal coating damage as a result of eliminating PCU operations during non- EVA times." In 2013, the ISSP was presented with recommendations from Boeing Space Environments for the "Conditional" Marginalization of Plasma Hazard. These recommendations include a plan that would keep the PCUs off during EVAs when the space environment forecast input to the ISS charging model indicates floating potentials (FP) within specified limits. These recommendations were based on the persistence of conditions in the space environment due to the current low solar cycle and belief in the accuracy and completeness of the ISS charging model. Subsequently, a Noncompliance Report (NCR), ISS-NCR-232G, Lack of Two-fault Tolerance to EVA Crew Shock in the Low Earth Orbit Plasma Environment, was signed in September 2013 specifying new guidelines for the use of shock hazard controls based on a forecast of the space environment from ISS plasma measurements taken prior to the EVA [ISS-EVA-312-AC, 2012]. This NESC assessment re-evaluates EVA charging hazards through a process that is based on over 14 years of ISS operations, charging measurements, laboratory tests, EMU studies and modifications, and safety reports. The assessment seeks an objective review of the plasma charging hazards associated with EVA operations to determine if any of the present hazard controls can safely change the PCU utilization plan to allow more flexibility in ISS operations during EVA preparation and execution.

Hernandez-Pellerano, Amri↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar Corona Explorer: A mission for the physical diagnosis of the solar corona

Mission objectives and spacecraft requirements for the Solar Corona Explorer (SCE), a proposed free flying, unmanned solar research craft to be tenatively launched in 1987, were defined. The SCE's purpose is to investigate structure, dynamics and evolution of the corona, globally and in the required physical detail, to study the close coupling between the inner corona and the heliosphere. Investigative objectives are: (1) to understand the corona as the source of varying interplanetary plasma and of varying solar X-ray and extreme ultraviolet fluxes; (2) to develop the capabilities to model the corona with sufficient precision to forecast the Earth's variable environment in space, on the scales from weeks to years; (3) to develop an understanding of the physical processes that determine the dynamics and physical state of the coronal plasma, particularly acceleration processes; and (4) to develop insight and test theory on the Sun applicable to stellar coronae and winds, and in particular, to understand why cool stars put such a large fraction of their energy into X-rays. Considered related factors are: (1) duration of the mission; (2) onboard measuring instrumentation; (3) ground support equipment and procedures; and (4) programs of interpretation and modeling.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates and Improvements to the Prediction of the Ionizing Radiation Environment from the Earth's Surface to Geospace

- NAIRAS Model Description - Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) Model - Running in real-time on LaRC computer cluster since 2011, results hosted on Space Environment Technologies server/website - Running in real-time at CCMC since 2020 - Key Model Features - Global ionizing radiation environment model - Physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code - Real-time inclusion of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation - Real-time solar-magnetospheric effects on radiation (cutoff model by Kress et al. [2004, 2010]) - New/Current Model Development - Improved SEP dose nowcast and forecast - Extend to low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment - Single-Event Effects (SEE) radiation risk assessment quantities - Run-on-Request (RoR) @ CCMC

Christopher J. Mertens↗
NASA NTRS1992

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Lee, Robert B., III↗
NASA NTRS2012

Measurements and IRI Model Predictions During the Recent Solar Minimum

Cycle 23 was exceptional in that it lasted almost two years longer than its predecessors and in that it ended in an extended minimum period that proved all predictions wrong. Comparisons of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) with CHAMP and GRACE in-situ measurements of electron density during the minimum have revealed significant discrepancies at 400-500 km altitude. Our study investigates the causes for these discrepancies with the help of ionosonde and Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) data from the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite. Our C/NOFS comparisons confirm the earlier CHAMP and GRACE results. But the ionosonde measurements of the F-peak plasma frequency (foF2) show generally good agreement throughout the whole solar cycle. At mid-latitude stations yearly averages of the data-model difference are within 10% and at low latitudes stations within 20%. The 60-70% differences found at 400-500 km altitude are not seen at the F peak. We will discuss how these seemingly contradicting results from the ionosonde and in situ data-model comparisons can be explained and which parameters need to be corrected in the IRI model.

Bilitza, Dieter↗
NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mariner Venus-Mercury 1973 mission solar proton environment: fluence and dose

A derivation is presented for proton fluence over the duration of the Mariner Venus-Mercury 1973 (MVM73) mission in terms of a relatively constant, low energy component, the solar wind, and a probabilistic high energy component from discrete solar events. An updated correlation of yearly energetic proton fluence with yearly average sunspot number is presented. This correlation and sunspot cycle forecasts for the period of the MVM73 mission (late 1973 through early 1975) form the basis for the high energy proton fluence estimates with various confidence levels. Uncertainties in the probability estimates and in calculation of the scaling with distance from the Sun are discussed. Selection of a particular 95-percentile model as the design constraint is recommended, and reasons are presented for not using the worst-case model. Interior fluences were calculated and expressed in terms useful for spacecraft design.

Thomas, J. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗
NASA NTRS2004

Link Design and Planning for Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Ka-band (32 GHz) Telecom Demonstration

NASA is planning an engineering telemetry demonstration with Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Capabilities of Ka-band (32 GHz) for use with deep space mission are demonstrated using the link optimization algorithms and weather forecasting. Furthermore, based on the performance of previous deep space missions with Ka-band downlink capabilities, experiment plans are developed for telemetry operations during superior solar conjunction. A general overview of the demonstration is given followed by a description of the mission planning during cruise, the primary science mission and superior conjunction. As part of the primary science mission planning the expected data return for various data optimization methods is calculated. These results indicate that, given MRO's data rates, a link optimized to use of at most two data rates, subject to a minimum availability of 90%, performs almost as well as a link with no limits on the number of data rates subject to the same minimum availability.

Ka-band↗
NASA NTRS2012

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗
NASA NTRS2005

Transition to Operations Support at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. This paper will focus on a status report on CCMC activities in support of model transition to operations at US space weather forecasting centers. In particular, an update will be given on past and present transition activities, on developments that address operational needs, and on future opportunities for transition-to-operations support.

Hesse, M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗