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At least 307 records · Page 17

Southern Hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability

Global land water underpins livelihoods, socioeconomic development, and ecosystems. It remains unclear how water availability has changed in recent decades. Using an ensemble of observations, we quantified global land water availability over the past two decades. We show that the Southern Hemisphere has dominated the declining trend in global water availability from 2001 to 2020. The significant decrease occurs mainly in South America, southwestern Africa, and northwestern Australia. In the Northern Hemisphere, the complex regional increasing and decreasing trends cancel each other, resulting in a negligible hemispheric trend. The variability and trend in water availability in the Southern Hemisphere are largely driven by precipitation associated with climate modes, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, this study highlights their dominant role in controlling global water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Livability Assessment of Urban Communities considering the Preferences of Different Age Groups

Livability is one of the major guiding principles for urban planning and policymaking, of which the definition and evaluation have become the crucial research topic. As the progress in socioeconomic development accelerates, the microscale living conditions require more urgent attention. However, few researchers have addressed the assessment of urban livability at a finer spatial scale such as the community scale. Thus, this article aims to evaluate the urban environmental quality at the community level given the residential community as the basic unit of urban living areas. We select eighteen objective indicators from five dimensions to establish an objective indicator system. Taking the preferences of different age groups into account, a comprehensive evaluation framework for the livability of communities combining both subjective perceptions and objective indicator is constructed. Then, it is applied to evaluate the livability of 1,394 residential communities in Ningbo City. There are three significant results from the study. First, different age groups have diverse preferences of demands to the livability of an urban community. The indicators they valued most concentrated in the following two dimensions: the convenience of transportation and the completeness of supporting facilities. Second, there exists significant heterogeneity in the livability of communities among districts. Third, the livability of communities shows a decreasing spatial pattern from the city center to the surroundings. These empirical results can be advantageous to urban planning departments and other relevant stakeholders.

Liang, Xiaojin↗

Downscaled Daily 1 km Climate Data (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) for Southeast Texas. Full ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 climate projections at 1 km daily resolution.

For the SETx-UIFL, the daily NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset climate projections were downscaled from approximately 27 km to 1 km. The SETx dataset provides very high-resolution climate data for the historical period (1950–2014) and future scenarios derived from CMIP6 global models under the four Tier 1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1.26, 2.45, 3.70, and 5.85), developed for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. A subset of ten NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models was selected to represent a balance of model families, climate sensitivities, and availability across scenarios, ensuring a diverse and reliable ensemble for regional analysis. Selected models: BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-MM. Daily variables downscaled include tasmax, tasmin, tas, pr, hurs, huss, rsds, rlds, and sfcWind.

Persad, Geeta↗

HIPSTER (Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics) [SWR-24-17]

Development of a prototype, code-based life cycle assessment framework, the Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics (HIPSTER), to coherently assess outputs of prospective NREL models across environmental and resource use metrics. Eventually, HIPSTER is aimed to also cover socioeconomic and justice metrics. At present, NREL model scenario impact assessments are performed incoherently, as they as based on varying assumptions and inputs, specifically life cycle inventories, and cover different system boundaries. HIPSTER was created to align the assumptions and boundaries with those of cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment. In FY22, HIPSTER was successfully applied using scenarios from the ReEDS™ model, NREL's flagship capacity expansion model resulting in cradle-to-grace time-series life cycle impacts across LCA midpoints and resource use metrics.

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗

cabbi-bio/BECT-ABM

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey.

Yang, Pan↗

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I Initiative: Description and Highlight Results from the Initial Analysis

Here we describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of twenty-first-century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over nine CORDEX domains at ~25-km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, and energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling

Dynamical downscaling is a crucial process for providing regional climate information for broad uses, using coarser-resolution global models to drive higher-resolution regional climate simulations. The pool of global climate models (GCMs) providing the fields needed for dynamical downscaling has increased from the previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, with limited computational resources, the need for prioritizing the GCMs for subsequent downscaling studies remains. GCM selection for dynamical downscaling should focus on evaluating processes relevant for providing boundary conditions to the regional models and be inspired by regional uses such as the response of extremes to changes in the boundary conditions. This leads to the need for metrics representing processes of relevance to diverse stakeholders and subregions of a domain. Procedures to account for metric redundancy and the statistical distinguishability of GCM rankings are required. Further, procedures for selecting realizations from ensembles of top-performing GCM simulations can be used to span the range of climate change signals in multiple ways. As a result, distinct weighting of metrics and prioritization of particular realizations may depend on user needs. We provide high-level guidelines for such region-specific evaluations and address how CMIP7 might enable dynamical downscaling of a representative sample of high-quality models across representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing CESM2 Clouds and Their Response to Climate Change Using Cloud Regimes

Abstract The Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), has a very high climate sensitivity driven by strong positive cloud feedbacks. To evaluate the simulated clouds in the present climate and characterize their response with climate warming, a clustering approach is applied to three independent satellite cloud products and a set of coupled climate simulations. Using k -means clustering with a Wasserstein distance cost function, a set of typical cloud configurations is derived for the satellite cloud products. Using satellite simulator output, the model clouds are classified into the observed cloud regimes in both current and future climates. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed cloud configurations in the historical simulation using the same time period as the satellite observations, but it struggles to capture the observed heterogeneity of clouds which leads to an overestimation of the frequency of a few preferred cloud regimes. This problem is especially apparent for boundary layer clouds. Those low-level cloud regimes also account for much of the climate response in the late twenty-first century in four shared socioeconomic pathway simulations. The model reduces the frequency of occurrence of these low-cloud regimes, especially in tropical regions under large-scale subsidence, in favor of regimes that have weaker cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

Characteristics of Veterans With Depression Who Use the Veterans Choice Program of the Veterans Health Administration

Objective: The Veterans Choice Program (VCP) of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) allowed eligible veterans to use their benefits with participating providers outside the VHA. The authors aimed to identify characteristics of veterans with depression who used or did not use mental health care through the VCP. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the authors analyzed secondary data from the national VHA Corporate Data Warehouse. VHA administrative data were linked with VCP claims to examine characteristics of VCP-eligible veterans with depression. Further, the study sample included 595,943 unique veterans who were enrolled in the VHA before 2013, were eligible for the VCP in 2016, were alive in 2018, and had an assessed Patient Health Questionnaire–9 (PHQ-9) score or depressive disorder diagnosis documented in the VHA between 2016 and 2018. Results: Veterans who used the VCP had lower medical comorbidity scores and lived in less socioeconomically disadvantaged counties, compared with veterans who received only VHA care. VCP veterans were also more likely to have a PHQ-9 score assessment and to have higher mean depression scores. Mean counts of annual mental health visits per 1,000 veterans were markedly higher for direct VHA care than for care provided via the VCP. As a percentage of the total counts of visits per 1,000 veterans across the VCP and VHA, residential programs and outpatient procedures were the services that were most frequently delivered through the VCP. Conclusions: Between 2016 and 2018, the VCP was used primarily to augment mental health care provided by the VHA, rather than to fill a gap in care.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Factors Influencing Willingness to Pool in Ride-Hailing Trips

In the past decade, transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber, Lyft, and Via have established themselves as a viable transportation alternative to other modes. However, the popularity of these services has come with a fair share of criticism for their negative externalities such as increasing vehicle miles traveled and congestion in cities. Pooled ride-hailing trips, in which all or a part of two individual (or group) trips are combined in and served by a single vehicle, have the potential to reduce these externalities. Pooling of rides is an effective solution to reduce congestion and travel cost, but pooled rides still represent a small percentage of the total trips served (and miles driven) by TNCs relative to single-occupancy (and without customer) vehicle miles. Both TNCs and cities alike will benefit from understanding what factors encourage or deter pooling a ride-hailing trip. In this study, newly available Chicago transportation network provider data were explored to identify the extent to which different socioeconomic, spatiotemporal, and trip characteristics affect willingness to pool (WTP) in ride-hailing trips. Furthermore, multivariate linear regression and machine-learning models were employed to understand and predict WTP based on location, time, and trip factors. The results show intuitive trends, with income level at drop-off and pickup locations and airport trips as the most important predictors of WTP. Results from this study can help TNCs and cities devise strategies that increase pooled ride-hailing, thereby reducing adverse transportation and energy impacts from ride-hailing modes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Substitution or Shared Utilization? Intrahousehold Vehicle Use in Mixed-Powertrain Households

While previous research has focused heavily on understanding the factors deriving alternative fuel vehicle adoption rates, there remains a significant gap in understanding how households distribute mileage across different powertrains. This study utilizes data from the 2022 Next Generation National Household Travel Survey to investigate vehicle miles traveled within a sample of 150 plug-in electric vehicle (PEV)-owning households (in which at least one battery electric vehicle is present), characterizing how different powertrains are integrated into daily mobility. Leveraging a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) framework the study jointly models the utilization of PEVs, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) while accounting for household-level substitution effects. The results provide evidence of an asymmetric substitution effect. In households with mixed-powertrain configurations, the ICEV captures a substantially higher share of household miles (compared with the PEV), acting as a utility sponge. Conversely, the model identifies specific socioeconomic and geographic cohorts that prioritize PEV as the primary household workhorse, indicating a systematic sorting effect. Although the sample size limits broader generalizability, these findings suggest that PEVs are used for frequent, specific routine-intensive roles, whereas the ICEV remains a specialized utility vehicle. These insights highlight distinct intrahousehold vehicle use behaviors that are often obscured by aggregate fleetwide statistics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Geospatial analysis of preterm and small-for-gestational age births in Washington D.C.

Background: This study is based on the recognition that adverse pregnancy outcomes significantly affect maternal and infant health, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. These outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of individual-level factors—like maternal age and education—and community-level influences, including socio-economic status and access to healthcare. Understanding these determinants is crucial for developing effective public health strategies, especially for marginalized populations, by identifying high-risk areas and informing targeted interventions that address both individual and structural barriers. Methods: We utilized geospatial analysis to explore the association between individual- and community-level factors and adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically preterm birth (PTB) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birthweight in Washington, D.C. We used Empirical Bayes smoothing methods to calculate rates of adverse birth outcomes from 2010 to 2018 at the U.S. Census tract–level. Spatial scan statistics were used to investigate if adverse birth outcomes clustered in specific areas. ANOVA tests were conducted for individual- and community-level factors within identified clusters. Results: Spatial analysis identified significant high-risk clusters for PTB and SGA infants primarily in southeastern Washington, D.C., particularly in Wards 7 and 8. Individuals residing within these clusters experienced a 47% increased risk of PTB (RR = 1.467) and a 56% increased risk of SGA (RR = 1.560) compared to those outside clusters. Space–time analysis revealed temporal variation, with PTB clusters persisting from 2011 to 2014 and SGA clusters extending through 2017. Compared to low-risk clusters, high-risk clusters had younger birthing individuals (mean age ~26.5 vs. ~33 years), lower maternal college degree attainment (~20% vs. ~80%), higher rates of late or no prenatal care (~16% vs. 11%), and increased prevalence of smoking and hypertension (all P < 0.001). Community-level indicators showed lower median household incomes ($\$40,000$ vs. ~$\$105,000$), greater poverty (~16% vs. ~7% below $\$10,000$/year), higher public assistance use (~32% vs. ~5%), and reduced healthcare access (greater distances to emergency and specialty care) in high-risk areas (all P < 0.001). Neighborhood deprivation indices were significantly elevated, commutes were longer, and population density was lower in these clusters. These findings highlight that adverse birth outcomes cluster in neighborhoods with pronounced socioeconomic and health disparities. Conclusion: High-risk birth clusters highlight intertwined factors: individual, socio-economic, and geographic. Addressing these requires comprehensive interventions focusing on social and structural determinants of health.

Birth outcomes↗

Prescribed fires, smoke exposure, and hospital utilization among heart failure patients

Abstract Background Prescribed fires often have ecological benefits, but their environmental health risks have been infrequently studied. We investigated associations between residing near a prescribed fire, wildfire smoke exposure, and heart failure (HF) patients’ hospital utilization. Methods We used electronic health records from January 2014 to December 2016 in a North Carolina hospital-based cohort to determine HF diagnoses, primary residence, and hospital utilization. Using a cross-sectional study design, we associated the prescribed fire occurrences within 1, 2, and 5 km of the patients’ primary residence with the number of hospital visits and 7- and 30-day readmissions. To compare prescribed fire associations with those observed for wildfire smoke, we also associated zip code-level smoke density data designed to capture wildfire smoke emissions with hospital utilization amongst HF patients. Quasi-Poisson regression models were used for the number of hospital visits, while zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used for readmissions. All models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and neighborhood socioeconomic status and included an offset for follow-up time. The results are the percent change and the 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Associations between prescribed fire occurrences and hospital visits were generally null, with the few associations observed being with prescribed fires within 5 and 2 km of the primary residence in the negative direction but not the more restrictive 1 km radius. However, exposure to medium or heavy smoke (primarily from wildfires) at the zip code level was associated with both 7-day (8.5% increase; 95% CI = 1.5%, 16.0%) and 30-day readmissions (5.4%; 95% CI = 2.3%, 8.5%), and to a lesser degree, hospital visits (1.5%; 95% CI: 0.0%, 3.0%) matching previous studies. Conclusions Area-level smoke exposure driven by wildfires is positively associated with hospital utilization but not proximity to prescribed fires.

Raab, Henry↗

The examination of the spatial and contextual disparities of determinant factors of adult obesity among communities in Chicago

The issue of adult obesity has multiple complexes contributing factors and is becoming a significant public health concern worldwide, including in the neighborhoods of Chicago. This study utilized data on nineteen demographic, environmental, socioeconomic, and behavioral characteristics of community neighborhoods in Chicago to analyze the interplay and impact of these complex factors, which is essential for understanding and addressing the issue. The analysis revealed significant geographic variations in the prevalence of adult obesity across Chicago neighborhoods, with associations of these patterns found significant in 17 out of 19 determinant factors studied. Notably, strong associations were found between obesity and the percentage of the White population, the quality of sidewalks and walkability, the economic hardship index, and the unemployment rate. Identifying high-risk adult obesity communities and understanding the multifaceted contributing factors is crucial for developing evidence-based interventions and policy initiatives to reduce obesity and create healthier, more equitable urban neighborhoods for a city such as Chicago and beyond.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗